The 2022-23 NFL season is quickly approaching and I have procrastinated long enough on my futures bets.
I had grand plans (keyword here being "had") of beginning my football season betting and fantasy preparations in March.
However, the joke is on me because it's August and I just had to get my husband to look up who the hell is playing quarterback for the Houston Texans. Yikes.
So, I'm buckling up like one epic butter cup and starting my season with one of my favorite longshot bets.
I'm taking Trevor Lawrence (80-1 at DraftKings) to win NFL MVP… again.
I know, I know. I never learn my lesson, but I stand by my terrible choices and here are three reasons why.
2022-23 NFL MVP Betting Pick
*Odds as of Aug. 3
1. Coaching
It's no secret that Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars had a miserable 2021 season. I don't want to name names or anything, but I think we all know who's to blame for the majority of that fail.
But that mess has created a great price for a quarterback who has some serious star potential and I'm here to thank Urban Meyer for that screw up.
OK, so maybe I do want to name names.
This year, Doug Pederson will be leading the team as head coach. Lawrence now has a Super Bowl-winning NFL boss, as well as a former professional quarterback, paving the way for a (hopefully) much better season.
And everything that we've heard so far coming out of training camp is that Pederson is respected, well-liked and Lawrence is looking much better overall.
Those are all pluses in my book.
2. Schedule
You know what else helps? Playing the Texans twice a year.
In fact, as a whole, the AFC South isn't a terrible place for Jacksonville to improve this season.
Yeah, the Jags play the Titans and Colts twice, but neither of team finished last season inside the top 10 of Football Outsiders' pass defense DVOA metric.
In fact, the Jaguars have just one team on their 2022-23 schedule that finished in the top 10 of pass defense DVOA last year: Cowboys ranked second.
Additionally, Lawrence & Co. will play 11 of their 17 games against defenses that ranked 19th or worse last season against the pass via the same metric.
3. Skill-Position Players
With Christian Kirk, Marvin Jones Jr., Zay Jones and Laviska Shenault Jr. at wide receiver, plus Evan Engram now at tight end, I fully expect Lawrence to be slinging it around the yard this season.
And let's not forget that the team finally gets to utilize its 2021 first-round draft pick and running back Travis Etienne, who caught 48 passes in his final year at Clemson. That gives Lawrence another set of capable hands out of the backfield.
Overall, this season is looking up for Lawrence and his 80-1 price tag (click here for live NFL MVP odds) makes this longshot worth it in my book.
I'm betting him to win MVP and might even double down by drafting him in my season-long fantasy football leagues to ensure that if one bet goes bad, I can sufficiently sink my entire NFL ship this season. #WorthIt
