While spending a nice, quiet morning in a Vegas sportsbook trying to get over my hangover back in June, I stumbled across the Atlanta Falcons' 2022 regular-season win total.
Did ya know it's over/under 4.5 wins?
At first, I was all, "Lol, Atlanta suuuuuckkks."
Then I had another beer (or three).
Then I thought, "Ok, Atlanta does suck, but is it going to really be that bad?
"Have there been any offseason changes to push them to five wins this season?
"Is old Matt Ryan really any better than new Marcus Mariota or even rookie Desmond Ridder? If he is, it's not by much in the year 2022."
So let's talk this dumpster fire out.
Atlanta Falcons Win Total Odds, Pick
Last year, the Falcons went 7-10. This year, the expectations are much lower, and I can see why.
Their schedule is hard. But even with a tough schedule, they still play in one of the easier divisions in the league. I can see a situation where they split wins with both Carolina and New Orleans.
I mean, the Saints have Jameis Winston and a quarterback playing tight end.
That's two potential wins right there.
And let us not forget about Tampa Bay. Sure, on paper it looks like they will take both of those wins, but in real life, things look a little different. Tampa is up in the air with offensive line injuries, a new coach and Tom Brady away from the team for personal reasons.
I can see a situation where this team melts in epic fashion.
I mean, can you really call someone the GOAT if he lost to Eli Manning not once, but twice on the sport's biggest stage?
There's your third win.
While outside of their division looks more difficult, there is a high probability that the Falcons win against the Browns in Week 4, a game in which Cleveland quarterback DeShaun Watson will likely be suspended (as he should be, but that's a rant for another day).
Atlanta also plays Chicago, Washington and Pittsburgh, with the Steelers trying to replace Big Ben with either a rookie they drafted too early or Mitch(ell) Trubisky.
I could easily see a situation where Atlanta wins two of those games, putting it over the 4.5 win total — and that's not factoring in the chances of another upset victory along the way.
The pick: Falcons Over 4.5 Wins (-120) via FanDuel
