Sean Koerner is Action Network’s Director of Predictive Analysis. Get access to his 2022 Fantasy Football Draft Kit here.
PrizePicks is the first site I've ever seen take action on preseason player props. And while everyone likes to joke about how awful or boring NFL preseason games can be, what better way to make it more exciting than to sweat over player props involving fifth-stringers?
2022 Hall of Fame Game Player Props
Confidence rating from 1-10 is in parenthesis after the pick.
Kyle Sloter: Over 75.5 Passing Yards (7)
Sloter has dominated in his 12 preseason games. He's averaging 102 passing yards per game with a 74% completion rate, 11:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio and 119.4 QB rating. He's also averaging 8.1 yards per attempt.
Sloter is coming over from the USFL, in which he started for the New Orleans Breakers, so he should be game ready and won’t be rusty.
With Trevor Lawrence and C.J. Beathard expected to sit this game out, it will be Jake Luton and Kyle Sloter sharing QB duties for the Jaguars. I’m guessing each player will play around one half each, with Sloter getting the second half.
I’m projecting Sloter closer to 90.5 passing yards.
Kevin Austin Jr.: Over 15.5 Receiving Yards (6)
Sloter signed with the Jaguars on July 24, so he hasn’t been able to practice with the team too much. One of the WRs I think he will feel comfortable targeting is Austin. They seem to have worked in the same unit in practice, so I like the correlation in taking both of their overs.
Austin is an undrafted rookie free agent from Notre Dame. He's very talented but wasn't drafted due to off-the-field issues, injuries and drops. A game like this is the perfect chance for the Jaguars to take a close look at him, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he played close to a full half.
Austin seems better than 50/50 odds to haul in two catches, but this number is low enough that he can clear it with a single grab.
I’m projecting him closer to 19.5 receiving yards.
Note: This is the riskiest prop. I’m only using it to complete a five-pick play that correlates nicely. I will also be doing a four-pack that excludes this play.
Tim Jones: Under 18.5 Receiving Yards (7)
It’s unclear how many Jaguars WRs will suit up in this game. Either way, Jones may see most of his playing time in the first half, alongside more talented WRs who will command a higher target share. That will make it tougher for him to haul in the two or more receptions needed to clear this prop. I’m projecting him closer to 14.5 receiving yards.
Nick Mullens: Under 5 Fantasy Points (7)
The Raiders will likely use three QBs in the game. Jarrett Stidham should start, with Nick Mullens coming in sometime during the second quarter or after the half, and then Chase Garbers should finish out the game.
Mullens has the most NFL experience of all three QBs, so the Raiders probably don’t need too much film on him in a game like this where he will be playing with third stringers.
His floor is pretty low here, especially if Derek Carr gets a series or two to begin the game, and I’m projecting him closer to 4.2 fantasy points.
Austin Walter: Over 24.5 Rushing Yards (7)
The Raiders will likely rest Josh Jacobs and Kenyan Drake in this game. While fourth-round rookie Zamir White may suit up, he could be fairly limited considering he missed two days of camp last week. Brittain Brown has also missed practice due to injury and may be unable to suit up.
All of that means Walter could end up seeing seven or more rushing attempts, which should be enough to clear this number.
I’m projecting him closer to 31.5 rushing yards and want to get on this early in case the Raiders end up holding out White and/or Brown. Walter’s prop may get bumped up to over 35.5 if that happens.
