The 2022 NFL Draft is finally here! And the college football analysts who have been following these prospects are here to break down their favorite bets ahead of the first round on Thursday night (8 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN).
Find their guide to betting those props below.
Note: NFL Draft odds can move quickly, which is why we've included our analysts' "bet to" threshold beneath each pick.
2022 NFL Draft Odds, Props
No. 4 Pick: Kayvon Thibodeaux (+450)
Kody Malstrom: Once thought of by many as the easy No. 1 pick after shaky starts from Spencer Rattler and Sam Howell, Kayvon Thibodeaux has now seen his odds slowly plummet with each passing day. Now with Travon Walker and Aidan Hutchinson widely believed to be going Nos. 1 and 2, respectively, we see Thibodeaux start a slide down the board.
The Texans have also shown no interest in an edge rusher, speculating between an offensive linemen (Ikem Ekwonu or Evan Neal) or now the recently steamed Derek Stingley Jr., who is now the favorite to go third overall.
Luckily for Thibodeaux, it’s not a steep slide, as the Jets would be lucky to have a top-three edge rusher fall to them. An elite talent, we saw a glimpse of his greatness with seven sacks, two forced fumbles and 49 total tackles in 10 games last season.
A cause for his slide is speculation of off-field distractions. Caring more about personal sponsors and business ventures can be a cause for concern for struggling teams that already have enough problems to deal.
Still, it’s hard to ignore a talent like his, and that’s why the Jets will take him at No. 4 with Nos. 1-3 seemingly locked in.
Bet to: +200
Malik Willis Draft Position Over 13.5 (-160)
Tanner McGrath: Look, this quarterback class stinks. Malik Willis is considered the top quarterback in the draft, and he transferred to Liberty because he couldn’t beat out Bo Nix or Jarrett Stidham at Auburn.
Willis is athletic with good playmaking skills, but he’s not worth a premium pick, and it’s tough to find a team in the top 13 with a heavy need at quarterback.
If you’re betting the under here, you’re basically banking on him going No. 6 to Carolina or No. 9 to Seattle. And there are already rumors flying around about Seattle’s interest in Desmond Ridder.
I can't believe @MikeDugar has done this,https://t.co/rF4oQ1IvBfpic.twitter.com/fp0HeZWJRu
— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) April 27, 2022
While Detroit needs a quarterback, it’s impossible the Lions pass on one of the high-level defensive ends at No. 2.
As Kyle alludes to below, it seems the most likely spot for Willis to fall is at No. 20 to Pittsburgh. But considering the amount of polarization and confusion surrounding Willis as a future franchise QB, I’m still unconvinced he even cracks the first round.
The Steelers could trade up, but they’d have to crack the top 13 to do so. And if that happens, there’s still an outside shot they take Kenny Pickett anyway.
I feel comfortable with this line at DraftKings or, if you want to play it even safer, the over 12.5 (-165) at PointsBet.
Bet to: -150 odds at 13.5; no higher than 15.5 if line moves
QB Draft Order: Malik Willis first, Kenny Pickett second (+125)
Kody Malstrom: What was once a two-horse race for first quarterback selected has now turned into a one-horse race.
With the Panthers recently hinting that Sam Darnold would be their starter next season, we‘ve seen the odds shift heavily toward Willis to be the first QB off the board. Sitting at -190 odds, Willis has looked to be a sure-fire lock to go to the Steelers at No. 20. He has been connected to Pittsburgh throughout the draft process after the “Willis to Detroit” smoke evaporated.
The next outspoken quarterback-needy team is the Titans, who would benefit from a Kenny Pickett slide. Pickett, to me, still enters the draft as the most NFL-ready quarterback in a very weak class.
If you want to hedge this for a small profit, you can add Pickett to be the first quarterback off the board at +170.
There’s a sizable gap after Willis and Pickett with the trio of Desmond Ridder, Matt Corral and Sam Howell all expected to be mid-to-late second-rounders, if not later.
Bet to: +100
Steelers' First Pick: QB (-125)
Kyle Remillard: Following the retirement of Ben Roethlisberger, the Steelers are sitting on Mitch Trubisky and Mason Rudolph as their potential quarterbacks for this season. That won’t bode well in a conference that features Lamar Jackson, Deshaun Watson and Joe Burrow.
Mike Tomlin has been infatuated with Malik Willis throughout the draft process and hasn’t been shy about voicing his opinion that the franchise is in desperate need of a quarterback.
#Steelers HC Mike Tomlin says they've been examining this year's QB class in a similar way they examined all the RBs last year. Doing a lot of work with that position group.
Of course, Pittsburgh drafted Najee Harris in round one last year.
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) April 25, 2022
Pittsburgh owns the 20th and 52nd selections in this year’s draft, so waiting until the second round may not leave the front office many options. The Steelers could move up to secure Willis or sit tight for his guy like Bill Belichick did last year.
Regardless of the decision, the Steelers must fill its biggest hole in the roster, whether it be with Willis or Pickett. I’m banking on Tomlin doing whatever it takes to secure his quarterback for the future.
Bet to: -140
First RB Drafted: Breece Hall (-250)
Kody Malstrom: I hate drinking the juice, but this is still too low.
Other than Kenneth Walker III, who has still been a distant second option after Hall, no other running back threatens this pick. Hall has been slotted as high as the 25th pick to the Bills and 10-12 picks ahead of Walker in the average mock.
Hall has the potential to be a three-down back for a depleted Bills backfield, bringing in a blend of power and speed that will make an instant impact in Year 1. This may be the last chance to bet Hall at these odds before they get steeper as we inch closer to the draft.
You can also sprinkle Hall +160 to go in the first round — the last time no running backs went in the first round was 2014.
Bet to: -250
Under 4.5 Pac-12 Players Drafted In Round 1
Kyle Remillard: The Pac-12 had another down year as it missed the College Football Playoff for the fifth consecutive season. The conference finished on a low note, losing all four of its bowl game matchups.
Kayvon Thibodeaux enters the draft as the conference’s top prospect and a likely top-five pick. USC’s Drake London and Utah’s Devin Lloyd are both projected to go in the middle of the first round as well. But after those three, the talent level drops for the remaining prospects.
Washington’s Trent McDuffie and Washington State’s Kyler Gordon are the only other two potential first round prospects from the Pac-12. Both play cornerback and both will need to go in the first round for this prop to go over its total, but cornerback is one of the most competitive positions in this draft's class. Teams will gravitate toward Andrew Booth Jr. out of Clemson ahead of Gordon for a late first-round cornerback.
The Pac-12 has had five players selected in the first round just once over the last six years. After Thursday, that will be once in the last seven years.
Bet to: -200
