Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, finished with the eighth-most accurate mock draft in 2021 (per FantasyPros). He's back with his first-round predictions for the 2022 NFL Draft as well as his favorite bet among the props available.
2022 NFL Draft Props
Garrett Wilson Draft Position Over 9.5 (+104)
The first real chance of Garrett Wilson's name getting called is by the Falcons with the eighth overall pick.
They're -125 to target a wide receiver at FanDuel, where Wilson is the favorite to be the first WR off the board (-160) as of writing. However, neither of those bets are slam dunks as there's a ton of uncertainty as to when Wilson, Drake London and Jameson Williams will be drafted.
FanDuel has Wilson at +300 odds to be the No. 8 pick (bet $100 to win $300). Those odds sound about right when you factor in the uncertainty of which position the Falcons will target and what order the top three WRs will be selected (though I agree that Wilson is the most likely player the Falcons will draft).
Betting the over on Wilson's draft position essentially buys into that uncertainty.
The Seahawks draft at No. 9, and the last need they have right now is wide receiver. So if the Falcons don't take Wilson, this prop will likely hit. Wilson will likely be drafted at either Nos. 8, 10 or 11.
I would make the odds of over 9.5 around 60%.
2022 NFL Mock Draft
The above embed features color coding based on Koerner's projected chances of each player being the respective pick:
- Green = 20%+ projected chance
- Yellow = Wide range of outcomes for pick
- Purple = Projected WR picks, order arguably interchangeable
And here are the results again in a more mobile-friendly table:
| Pick | Team | Player |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jaguars | Travon Walker, EDGE, Georgia |
| 2 | Lions | Aidan Hutchinson, EDGE, Michigan |
| 3 | Texans | Derek Stingley, CB, LSU |
| 4 | Jets | Ahmad Gardner, CB, Cincinnati |
| 5 | Giants | Charles Cross, OT, Miss St. |
| 6 | Panthers | Ikem Ekwonu, OT, NC State |
| 7 | Giants | Kayvon Thibodeaux, EDGE, Oregon |
| 8 | Falcons | Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio St. |
| 9 | Seahawks | Evan Neal, OT, Alabama |
| 10 | Jets | Drake London, WR, USC |
| 11 | Football Team | Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama |
| 12 | Vikings | Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame |
| 13 | Texans | Jermaine Johnson, EDGE, Houston |
| 14 | Ravens | Jordan Davis, DL, Georgia |
| 15 | Eagles | Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington |
| 16 | Saints | Chris Olave, WR, Ohio St. |
| 17 | Chargers | Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa |
| 18 | Eagles | George Karlaftis, EDGE, Purdue |
| 19 | Saints | Kenny Pickett, QB, Pittsburgh |
| 20 | Steelers | Malik Willis, QB, Liberty |
| 21 | Patriots | Devin Lloyd, LB, Utah |
| 22 | Packers | Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas |
| 23 | Cardinals | Zion Johnson, IOL, Boston College |
| 24 | Cowboys | Kenyon Green, IOL, Texas A&M |
| 25 | Bills | Kaiir Elam, CB, Florida |
| 26 | Titans | Tyler Linderbaum, IOL, Iowa |
| 27 | Buccaneers | Andrew Booth Jr., CB, Clemson |
| 28 | Packers | Quay Walker, LB, Georgia |
| 29 | Chiefs | Jahan Dotson, WR, Penn St. |
| 30 | Chiefs | Devonte Wyatt, DL, Georgia |
| 31 | Bengals | Tyler Smith, OL, Tusla |
| 32 | Lions | Nakobe Dean, LB, Georgia |
