Betting on NFL win totals is a great way to invest for or against a team’s upcoming season.
There are many factors that I look into when deciding on taking a side for each team’s win total. The main data point I use to decide is the percent chance a team will go over or under any given number based on my season-long simulator that’s based on my team ratings.
I use many metrics when coming up with my team ratings, but they factor in the team’s current roster, any potential injuries/suspensions that would impact their given odds on any given week, and the coaching staff. I also attempt to dig into other metrics that indicate which teams were lucky/unlucky last season, which could result in the market being too high/low on a given team. Some of the metrics you will see me refer to include:
One-score record: A team’s record in one-score games. The idea here is that we can assume teams should finish right around a 50/50 record in one-score games. If a team ends up going a few games above/below .500 in one-score games, it usually causes the market to over/under estimate that team based on their one-score luck. My logic is to always assume that their luck will regress back towards average the following season.
Injury luck: By looking at Football Outsiders Adjusted Games Lost metric, we can see which teams experienced the best to worst injury luck from a season ago. Injuries are unpredictable but can significantly impact a team’s end-of-season record. Therefore, I assume every team’s injury luck will regress back towards average the following season.
Pythagorean win totals: This calculation estimates a team’s record based on point differential. Teams that finish significantly higher or lower than their expected record could have done so based on luck (especially one-score record luck).
I try to factor in everything before locking in a bet.
The final step before locking in a bet is finding the best odds. Win total markets can be tricky because books could offer different numbers with different money lines.
This is where my Win Total Calculator comes in handy. Since I’m projecting each team’s chances of finishing with exactly X number of wins, I can calculate the odds for each win total. I have a few books already in my tool, but you can use the Calculator columns to enter in whatever win total, along with the over/under price you have access to get the % edge I’m showing based on my sims.
Last year, my Win Total Calculator showed a 5% edge or greater on 17 teams and went 12-5.
Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals open up with a brutal three-game stretch against the Chiefs, Raiders and Rams. They will also be without top wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins for the first six games.
There is a chance Arizona gets off to a sluggish start, but Kyler Murray will have the best supporting cast of his career when Hopkins is back. The Cardinals traded for Murray’s former college teammate Marquise Brown, who will add a much-needed vertical element in the passing game. Brown should open up the middle of the field for Zach Ertz and Year 2 breakout candidate Rondale Moore.
I’m showing some slight value on the Cardinals to go over 8.5 wins, but not enough for me to pull the trigger. The defense could be shaky after trading away Chandler Jones, and it’s one J.J. Watt injury away from falling apart, which isn’t something I want to rely on. I feel the Cardinals will be a friendly team to the over in 2022.
Verdict: Lean Over 8.5 (-105, DraftKings)
Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons needed a ton of luck to go 7-10 last season. They were 7-2 in one-score games, ranked third in adjusted games lost due to injury and were 2.3 wins over their Pythagoreon expectation (they were expected to win 4.7 games based on their -146 point differential).
We should expect the Falcons to regress in terms of one-score game and injury luck in 2022. That’s a scary thought for a team that went 7-10 and will be without top WR Calvin Ridley while transitioning from Matt Ryan to Marcus Mariota or Desmond Ridder under center this year. Atlanta will be one of the worst teams in 2022, and I think there is enough value on its under to invest in.
Most books offer the Falcons win total at 4.5, but I like taking the Under 5 (-150) at DraftKings. Getting a push on 5 wins exactly is pretty good insurance to have. Here is the breakdown of the Falcons win total in my sims:
- 4 or fewer wins: 56%
- 5 wins exactly: 19%
- 6 wins or more: 24%
As you can see, the odds of winning this bet are more than double the odds of losing it, which means the -150 price tag is offering quite a bit of value.
Verdict: Bet Under 5 (-145, Caesars)
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Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens suffered the worst injury luck in 2022 by a wide margin, and that gives us a nice buy-low opportunity. They should be able to return to double-digit wins as long as they stay relatively healthy.
Trading away Marquise Brown does hurt the offense, but the WR/TE duo of Rashad Bateman and Mark Andrews should be more than enough on a run-heavy team. Baltimore will welcome back its top RBs in J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards after both missed last season due to injury. Expect the Ravens return to their extreme run-heavy brand of football.
Defensively, Baltimore signed stud safety Marcus Williams to a five-year, $70 million deal and drafted a potential stud in Kyle Hamilton in the first round.
I love the talent up and down this roster, and John Harbaugh has proven himself to be a top-five coach. With a savvy coaching staff and the greatest kicker of all time in Justin Tucker, we can expect this team to have a better chance of winning one-score games than most.
Verdict: Bet Over 9.5 (-140, WynnBet)
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Buffalo Bills
It’s remarkable to see a team with a 11-6 record go 0-5 in one-score games. The Bills could have easily been a 13- or 14-win team if they won a couple of those.
The Bills are the No. 1 team in my power ratings and the team to beat in the NFL this season. Buffalo benefited from having the second-best injury luck and the easiest strength of schedule last season, and its depth will be tested more this season against the 11th-toughest schedule.
I’m showing some slight value on the Bills to go Under 11.5 wins at +120, but this is a team I’m uninterested in fading.
Verdict: Lean Under 11.5 (+120, Caesars)
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Carolina Panthers
The Sam Darnold Experiment is likely over in Carolina after the Panthers drafted Matt Corral in the third Round and then traded for Baker Mayfield.
Mayfield was a big enough upgrade to bump the Panthers win total up from 5.5 to 6.5. The Panthers managed to go 5-12 last year despite abysmal QB play (ranked dead last in Adjusted Net Yards/Attempt and QB Rating), going 2-6 in one-score games and Christian McCaffery missing 10 games.
It’s not unreasonable to think Carolina can win one or two more games this season with better QB play and one-score game luck. Taking them Over 6.5 seems a bit too risky here, considering I have the most likely outcome being a 6-11 season 22% of the time. I don’t mind eating some juice to cash in the event of a 6-win season, and I’m showing some value in locking in Over 5.5 at -165.
Verdict: Bet Over 5.5 (-165, BetMGM)
Chicago Bears
Although the Bears are entering year two of Justin Fields' rookie contract, they did very little to improve the situation around him. They let Allen Robinson walk in free agency and decided to add Byron Pringle and Velus Jones (third-round pick) in an attempt to replace him. The Bears also have arguably the worst offensive line heading into this season.
While the Bears lack the talent around Justin Fields, he might be capable of elevating those around him, similar to Russell Wilson (who Jimmy Graham and others have compared Fields to). There is just too much uncertainty with this team to feel confident one way or another. I’m leaning towards Over 6.5 at +125 or Over 5.5 -165.
Verdict: Lean Over 5.5 (-165, BetMGM)
Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals significantly upgraded their offensive line by signing Ted Karras, Alex Cappa and La’el Collins, making them easily the most improved unit heading into 2022. It’s scary to think about how much better Joe Burrow will be with more time to throw. The offense should continue to score plenty of points, with one of the best WR trios in Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd.
Defensively, Cincinnati has talented players on the defensive line and in the secondary. Linebacker is the only unit where the Bengals might be lacking.
I consider them to have one of the more complete rosters in the league and would lean towards the over 9.5 -125.
Verdict: Lean Over 9.5 (-120, WynnBet)
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Note: One thing to keep in mind for the Bengals win total is they play the Browns in Week 8. If Deshaun Watson’s suspension is seven or fewer games, it would mean Cincinnati potentially has to face him twice, and my projection for them to win over 9.5 games will go down a couple of percentage points.
Cleveland Browns
Initial lines have put the Browns around 9.5 wins. I’m in line with that, factoring in the six-game suspension that Deshaun Watson appears headed toward. There may be a chance that Roger Goodell pushes for more games.
Either way, this is not a situation I’m interested investing in yet.
Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys are starting to feel the pain of Ezekiel Elliot’s six-year, $90 million contract and were forced to trade Amari Cooper to the Browns. It’s a blow to the offense, but I still expect them to be able to put up a ton of points with Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup and Dalton Schultz.
Dallas’ defense has two of the best players in the league in Demarcus Lawrence and Micah Parsons. If either misses time, this defense will be in serious trouble. Because of this, I will pass on taking the Cowboys Over 10 -110 despite showing some slight value.
Verdict: Lean Over 10 (-110, DraftKings)
Denver Broncos
Trading for Russell Wilson elevates the Broncos from a mediocre team to a legit Super Bowl contender. However, the AFC West has two other Super Bowl contenders in the Chiefs and Chargers. Even the Raiders could make some noise this season after landing Davante Adams.
The AFC West is by far the best division heading into 2022, and playing in it makes it much more difficult to rack up wins. The Broncos’ strength of schedule goes from third easiest a season ago to the 10th toughest for the upcoming season. That’s the third-biggest jump in terms of schedule difficulty in the league.
The hype surrounding Wilson has inflated the market enough to where I see some value in taking the Under 10 at +100.
Verdict: Bet Under 10 (+100, DraftKings)
Detroit Lions
The Lions were much better than their 3-13-1 record indicated last season. Here were their ranks in some of the key metrics I like to look at:
- One-score game luck: 2-5 (third worst)
- Pythagoreon wins over expected: -1.9 (fourth worst)
- Adjusted games lost due to injury: third worst
With average one-score game and injury luck, the Lions could easily win a few more games this season. They will also see the third-biggest jump in terms of SoS after having the fifth-toughest schedule in 2021 and will have the third-easiest schedule in 2022.
The Lions selected Aidan Hutchinson with the 2nd overall pick, and he should instantly impact a defense that ranked 29th in DVOA a year ago. This will still be a below-average unit.
Given Detroit was already able to play like a 5-6 win team with poor defense, bad one-score and injury luck, I like the value we are getting on the Lions over.
Verdict: Bet Over 6.5 (-110, BetMGM)
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Green Bay Packers
Salary cap issues led the Packers to trade away All-Pro Davante Adams. It’s a huge loss for the offense, and it’s unlikely that Sammy Watkins and second-round rookie Christian Watson will replace his production.
The Packers are also due for some regression after going 5-2 in one-score games, and they played more like a 10.5 win team when looking at their +79 point differential. Green Bay’s +2.5 wins over expected was the second-highest in the league.
I like the value we are getting on the Packers at Under 11.5 (-140), especially considering David Bakhtiari’s uncertainty for Week 1.
Verdict: Bet Under 11.5 (-140, BetMGM)
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Houston Texans
Davis Mills became only the eighth quarterback drafted in the third round or later (since 2000) to make 10+ starts as a rookie. He played well enough that the Texans will let him audition this season to be their QB of the future. However, Mills could take a step back in Year 2, especially if his interception luck changes for the worse.
This great piece from Football Outsiders looks into tipped or dropped interceptions to better estimate how many interceptions a QB “should” have thrown. According to their research, Mills’ 2.6% interception rate last season should have been closer to 4.1%.
The 4.5 win total for the Texans seems about right, especially considering how quickly things will fall apart in 2022 if Davis Mills struggles. They have arguably the worst roster in football and will likely be positioning themselves to select a QB in what should be a loaded class in 2023.
Verdict: Pass on 4.5
Indianapolis Colts
The Colts managed to go 9-8 last season despite enduring the worst luck of any team when looking at all the metrics I like to look at.
One of the most striking to me was that the Colts led the league in time of possession with the lead. Based on how often they led/tied/trailed games, they should have been closer to a 12-5 record. However, Indy was doomed due to a 2-5 record in one-score games.
Making the switch from Carson Wentz to Matt Ryan should limit the bad decision-making late in games that cost the Colts a few games. They have a very balanced roster and should be able to take advantage of the 6th easiest schedule in 2022. Books offer their total anywhere from 9.5-10.5, and I think the Over 10 -105 offers the best value.
Verdict: Bet Over 10 (+105, WynnBet)
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Jacksonville Jaguars
It’s difficult to blame Trevor Lawrence for his awful rookie season, which saw him lead the league with 17 interceptions. I have no doubt that new head coach Doug Pederson will be an upgrade over Urban Meyer, but it’s hard to get too excited about Christian Kirk, Marvin Jones, Zay Jones and Evan Engram as Lawrence’s primary targets.
I’m not a place where I can feel confident betting for or against Trevor Lawrence right now, so I will pass on their win total.
Verdict: Lean Under 6.5 (-115, WynnBet)
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Kansas City Chiefs
There is no denying that the Chiefs offense could take a step back after trading away a player like Tyreek Hill. However, I thought they did a good job adding a few WRs, though, in JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and second-round rookie Skyy Moore to help mitigate the loss.
Patrick Mahomes is only 26 years old, which means he is just starting to enter his prime as arguably the best QB in the NFL already. The Chiefs offense should remain one of the best in the league.
However, the Chiefs benefited from the best injury luck in 2021 and have the toughest regular-season schedule based on my power ratings. I’m leaning toward the Chiefs going under their 10.5 win total.
Verdict: Lean Under 10.5 (+110, WynnBet)
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Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders benefited the most from luck in the key metrics I like to look at on their way to a 10-7 record. They had the fourth-best injury luck and went 4-1 in one-score games.
The most mind-blowing stat was that Las Vegas managed to go 10-7 despite having a -65 point differential. Typically we would expect a team with a -65 point differential to finish closer to 7-10.
While the offense will get a significant boost from Davante Adams, the Raiders are a team I’m interested in fading in 2022. They face the second-toughest schedule and should see some regression in terms of one-score game luck in 2022. I’m taking the Raiders to go Under 8.5 wins at +100.
Verdict: Bet Under 8.5 (+110, Caesars)
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Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers offense ranked fourth in DVOA last season, but their 26th-ranked defense prevented them from making the playoffs. However, the Los Angeles defense could take a huge leap in 2022 after signing Khalil Mack and J.C. Jackson. If Derwin James can stay healthy, that could end up being a top-10 defense and make the Chargers a legit Super Bowl contender.
I’m showing some slight value on the Chargers Over 9.5 at -145. Considering I’m on the Broncos and Raiders to go under their totals, I like the correlation of backing the Chargers here.
Verdict: Bet Over 9.5 (-145, FanDuel)
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Los Angeles Rams
The blockbuster trade that brought Matthew Stafford over from Detroit led the Rams to their first Super Bowl win of the Sean McVay era. They have many of the same pieces returning this year and have a chance to become the first team to win back-to-back Super Bowls since 2004 (Patriots).
One of the reasons why it’s difficult to take the Rams Over 10.5 wins, though, is because they’re a very top-heavy team. It would be a massive blow if one of Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Aaron Donald or Jalen Ramsey was to ever miss time. Los Angeles was fortunate to have only one missed game out of those four players combined last season (Jalen Ramsey, Week 14).
We can’t bank on them to have that kind of luck again this season, so I think there is some slight value on the Under 10.5 -110, but not enough to invest in.
Verdict: Lean Under 10.5 (-105, WynnBet)
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Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins offense will be getting a complete makeover this season. New head coach Mike McDaniel is coming from the 49ers and will likely implement a Kyle Shananhan-esque offense. It’s a scheme that can take pressure off the offensive line, which was the Dolphins Achilles heel last season. Miami also signed two quality offensive linemen in Terron Armstead and Connor Williams, which should help tremendously.
Those changes should allow Tua Tagovailoa more time to throw the ball downfield at a higher rate this season after only averaging 7.0 intended air yards per attempt, which was the third lowest last season.
That brings us to the Tyreek Hill trade. The Dolphins were able to bring in the most dynamic player in the league, one who will make an immediate impact.
There is a lot to like about this Dolphins team, but its win total of 8.5 doesn’t offer too much value either way.
Verdict: Pass on 8.5
Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings are another team that will have a brand-new coaching staff in 2022. Minnesota moved on from a defensive-minded head coach in Mike Zimmer and turned to a Sean McVay disciple in Kevin O’Connell. While I am all for this move, it’s possible this roster needs 1-2 years of offseason moves to transition to such a drastic change in coaching philosophy.
I’m in line with the market regarding the 9 and 9.5 totals I have seen. However, there is some value on the Under 10.5 (-225) line that BetMGM is floating right now. According to my sims, Under 10.5 should be closer to -350. This is the perfect example where shopping around the alternate win total markets can catch a line offering enough value to invest in.
Verdict: Bet Under 10.5 (-225, BetMGM)
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New England Patriots
The Patriots went crazy in the 2021 offseason, spending over $160 million in guaranteed contracts, which was an NFL record. Given their 10-7 record last season, you could argue their strategy worked.
However, the reason they finished with a winning record last season had more to do with Mac Jones looking like the best QB from the 2021 draft class.
New England’s spending spree last offseason could have a negative impact in 2022. The cap hits for Jonnu Smith ($13.7m) and Nelson Agholor ($14.9) are massive for players who will have a minimal impact this season. The Pats have the most expensive WR depth chart in the league, yet they are the only team that doesn’t have a single player ranked inside my top 50 WR rankings in fantasy (for perspective). I’m bullish on Jones, but how they decided to build the roster around his rookie contract is suspect. It also forced them to allow J.C. Jackson to walk in free agency.
I don’t enjoy betting against Bill Belichick, but the Patriots only beat two teams with a winning record last season and will face a much tougher schedule (sixth toughest) in 2022 than they faced last year (seventh easiest).
I like shopping the alternate total market to get the Under 9.5 at -185. I’m projecting it closer to -350, so I love the value we are getting here.
Verdict: Bet Under 9.5 (-185, BetMGM)
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New Orleans Saints
The Saints suffered the eighth-worst injury luck last year, but it was even more devastating when considering how concentrated it was at the QB position.
The offense should be in much better shape this year with Jameis Winston looking on track for Week 1. To help him, New Orleans’ starting WRs of Michael Thomas, Jarvis Landry and Chris Olave are a massive upgrade over Winston’s weapons last season.
However, there is a ton of uncertainty about Alvin Kamara’s availability to start the season due to a possible suspension. That gives me enough pause to lock in either the over or under for the Saints right now.
Verdict: Pass on 8 or 8.5
New York Giants
The Giants are moving from head coach Joe Judge to Brian Daboll, who was at least partly responsible for Josh Allen’s breakout in Buffalo. Admittedly, Daniel Jones is not the same talent as Allen, but the Giants could sneak into the playoffs this season if Daboll can tap into the former Duke QB’s upside.
I’m very interested in investing in the Giants in 2022. Last season, they suffered the sixth-worst injury luck and faced the second-toughest schedule. I’m projecting New York to have the second-easiest schedule and with average injury luck, I can see this team easily winning 7-8 games.
The line showing the most value is Over 6.5 at -125 over at BetMGM.
Verdict: Bet Over 6.5 (-125, BetMGM)
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New York Jets
There are plenty of reasons to be bullish on the Jets heading into 2022.
New York injected a ton of talent in Sauce Gardner, Garrett Wilson, Jermaine Johnson and Breece Hall in the first two rounds of the draft. I love how the Jets have built this team around Zach Wilson, who was the No. 2 overall pick last season.
However, to call Wilson’s rookie season disappointing is an understatement. Here’s how he ranked at four key QB metrics:
- QB Rating: 39th of 40
- Adjusted Net Yards Per Attempt: 39th of 40
- EPA/play: 29th of 40
- Success rate: 39th of 40
Not great.
The Jets’ 2022 win total depends solely on how big of a Year 2 leap Wilson can make. I still think he can develop into at least an average NFL quarterback, especially considering the pass-catching talent around him. However, it’s quite a projection at this point, and I don’t feel confident betting on either the over or under for the Jets.
Verdict: Pass on 6
Philadelphia Eagles
After getting off to a 2-5 start in his first season as head coach, Nick Sirianni had a bizarre press conference where he was talking about fertilizing the soil to make the roots blossom into a flower. Whatever the hell he was talking about ended up working considering the Eagles went 7-3 the rest of the way.
One of the keys to the Eagles success was their shift from being a pass-heavy offense (ranked eighth in early-down pass rate in Weeks 1-7) to a more run-heavy approach (ranked fifth in early-down run rate from Weeks 8-18).
It was a sign that the Eagles coaching staff is able to adapt their game plan based on their roster. I expect the offense to be more balanced after landing stud WR A.J. Brown in a blockbuster trade. After years of poor WR depth, the Eagles now field one of the best WR duos in the league in Brown and 2021 first-round pick Devonta Smith.
The Eagles’ 9.5 total may seem a bit high until you consider they have the second-easiest schedule. I’m showing some slight value on the under here, but Philadelphia is a team that appears to be heading in the right direction and isn’t a team I’m interested in fading.
Verdict: Lean Under 10.5 (-175, BetMGM)
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Pittsburgh Steelers
Mike Tomlin has coached the Steelers to 15 consecutive winning seasons. However, the current win total of 7.5 implies that streak could be coming to an end this season. The Steelers were very fortunate to finish 9-7-1 last season and relied on a ton of luck in one-score games, going 8-2.
For the first time since 2003, the Steelers will be entering the season with a new starting QB. Ben Roethlisberger was a liability in his final season and depending on which metrics you look at, he was one of the worst QBs in the league. Out of 40 qualified QBs, Big Ben ranked 26th in QB Rating (26th), 26th in Adjusted Net Yards Per Attempt, 39th in EPA per play and 35th in Success Rate.
While the QB room of Mitch Trubisky and first-round pick Kenny Pickett – apparently Mason Rudolph is still fighting for the starting job, as well – may be below average, it would be unfair to call them a downgrade to 2021 Roethlisberger. It also means there is a ton of uncertainty when it comes to forecasting the Steelers this season, which is why I’m staying away from their total.
Verdict: Lean Under 7.5 (-115, FanDuel)
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San Francisco 49ers
While Jimmy Graoppolo is still currently on the roster, the Trey Lance era will officially begin in 2022.
Lance is still a very raw prospect at 22 years of age and he only attempted 71 passes as a rookie. He has elite rushing ability and a cannon for an arm. Considering he has weapons like Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Brandon Ayiuk at his disposal, the sky's the limit for Lance’s upside.
The 49ers went 10-7 despite only going 2-5 in one-score games. They’re a team with a very high ceiling heading into 2022 and one I want to invest in.
However, I think the best way to invest in San Francisco is to win the NFC West at +200. The division itself became easier to win now that Russell Wilson is no longer with the Seahawks. The Rams are the reigning champs and should of course be the favorite, but they’re a top-heavy team that could struggle with even average injury luck this year. I’d prefer to invest in the 49ers’ ceiling, and one way to do that is through their division odds.
Verdict: Lean Over 10 (+100, DraftKings)
Other Bet: Bet 49ers to win NFC West (+200, FanDuel/BetMGM)
Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks are in clear rebuilding mode after moving on from their leaders on offense (Russell Wilson) and defense (Bobby Wagner). Pete Carroll is a coach players love to play for, but his in-game decision making is sub-optimal. The Seahawks fourth-down decision making ranked second-worst, according to https://rbsdm.com/stats/fourth_downs/. I’m afraid that without Russell Wilson around to bail him out, Carroll will lead the Seahawks to one of the worst records in 2022.
The market is in-line with my projections for Seattle being a 5.5-6 win team. I’m showing some slight value on the over, but they are a team I’m uninterested in investing in.
Verdict: Lean Over 5.5 (-130, FanDuel)
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay had the most volatile offseason of any team in the NFL.
Tom Brady retired, then unretired. Bruce Arians, Rob Gronkowski, and Ali Marpet retired. The Bucs signed two former Falcons wide receivers in Russell Gage and Julio Jones to help replace some of the available targets left behind by Rob Gronkowski and Antonio Brown.
All in all, the Buccaneers will remain a Super Bowl contender in 2022. However, they’re a team that could be due for some regression after going 6-0 in one-score games last season. I also think the loss of Marpet is bigger than people realize. He is the glue that held the offensive line together and whenever he has been out of the lineup the past couple seasons, Brady has struggled.
To make matters worse, C Ryan Jensen suffered a knee injury that could knock him out for a few months. The offensive line could be an issue, at least early in the season.
I’m not showing any value on either side of the Buccaneers win total so it’s a pass for me. However, they are a team I bet against early in the season as they could struggle out of the gates with a potentially weakened offensive line.
Verdict: Pass on 11.5
Tennessee Titans
The Titans decided to trade A.J. Brown to the Eagles and a third-round pick for the 18th overall pick and used their first-round selection on WR Treylon Burks. It was a bold strategy that could potentially benefit them in 2023 and beyond. But for the 2022 season, their offense will most certainly take a step back without Brown.
The Titans were the most run-heavy team on early downs in 2021, and I’m expecting that to continue this season. It’s going to result in them being involved in a lot of one-score games and they will need to continue their good fortune in one-score games (6-2 last season) in order to clear their win total of 9.5.
I like the value currently being offered at FanDuel where the Under 9.5 is priced at -135.
Verdict: Bet Under 9.5 (-135, FanDuel)
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Washington Commanders
Washington has featured a carousel of below-average QBs over the past few seasons. Therefore, calling Carson Wentz an “upgrade” can both be a truthful statement and one that feels gross to say.
I think one area where Wentz can improve the Commanders offense is in the deep passing game. Terry McLaurin is one of the league’s better downfield targets, seeing the fourth-most targets 20 or more yards down the field last season. However, due to poor QB play, only 14 of his 29 targets were catchable (48%). Wentz threw a catchable target 20 or more yards downfield 78% of the time last season, which was the fourth-highest rate among QBs. I think the Wentz-McLaurin deep connection offers some sneaky upside for this offense.
Washington’s defense was one of the bigger disappointments, ultimately finishing 27th in DVOA despite being an above-average unit on paper. The odds of them rebounding in 2022 took a hit when Chase Young was ruled out for the season opener. He seems likely to miss the first couple games of the season (at least), which is a huge blow.
The only thing going in the Commanders’ favor is the fact that they have the third-easiest schedule after facing the toughest last season. However, it’s not enough for me to invest in either side of their 8 win total for this season.
Verdict: Pass on 8
2022 NFL Win Total Bets
- Falcons — Under 5 (-145, Caesars)
- Ravens — Over 9.5 (-140, WynnBet)
- Panthers — Over 5.5 (-165, BetMGM)
- Broncos — Under 10 (+100, DraftKings)
- Lions — Over 6.5 (-110, BetMGM)
- Packers — Under 11.5 (-140, BetMGM)
- Colts — Over 10 (+105, WynnBet)
- Raiders — Under 8.5 (+110, Caesars)
- Chargers — Over 9.5 (-145, FanDuel)
- Vikings — Under 10.5 (-225, BetMGM)
- Patriots — Under 9.5 (-185, BetMGM)
- Giants — Over 6.5 (-125, BetMGM)
- Titans — Under 9.5 (-135, FanDuel)
