Dodgeball, foot races and skill competitions are underway in Las Vegas and that can only mean one thing: The 2022 Pro Bowl is upon us.
While the Los Angeles Rams and Cincinnati Bengals are getting ready to face off in Super Bowl LVI in just over a week, all-star players from around the NFL who didn't make it to the Big Game are facing off in an array of fun events culminating in the Pro Bowl game between the NFC and AFC.
Before you tune into ESPN or ABC to watch the showdown at 3 p.m. ET on Feb. 6, let's see if we can't find a few Pro Bowl picks to make it all the more exciting.
Our Director of Predictive Analytics Sean Koerner and NFL betting expert Chris Raybon hopped on the Fantasy Flex podcast to dive into the PrizePicks prop picks they're locking in now for Sunday.
Before diving into their picks, it's important to note how the Pro Bowl and its rules differ from a typical NFL game:
Spot and Choose
NFL.com breaks down what this rule that eliminates kickoffs will look like:
The winner of the opening coin toss will instead [of a typical kickoff] have the option of spotting the ball anywhere on the field while designating direction, or choosing whether to start on offense or defense from the designated spot. Regardless of which privilege is chosen, the team determining the spot must announce the starting field position before the other team can decide whether to play offense or defense. The loser of the toss will have first choice between the two privileges to begin the second half.
Charity Incentives
The Pro Bowl will continue to feature charity incentives for in-game accomplishments by both players and teams. It is important to keep these incentives in mind for specific player props since they could impact players' usage.
| Accomplishment | Charity Donation |
|---|---|
| Defensive MVP | $20,000 |
| Offensive MVP | $20,000 |
| Longest Field Goal | $10,000 |
| Most Passing Yards | $10,000 |
| Most Receiving Yards | $10,000 |
| Most Rushing Yards | $10,000 |
| Most Tackles | $10,000 |
| Each Interception | $2,500 |
| Each Touchdown | $2,500 |
| If team rushes for 100 yards | $2,500 to each offensive lineman’s charity |
Pro Bowl Picks
Jonathan Taylor Under 12.5 Receiving Yards
Sean Koerner: You can think of this prop as under 1.5 receptions, and in the last two Pro Bowls, each team has only had one running back clear 1.5 receptions. That essentially means each RB has about a 33% chance of clearing 12.5 receiving yards.
For the AFC, I feel Najee Harris would be the most likely back to clear it as opposed to Taylor, making me like the under here. Based on the charity rushing incentives stated above, the AFC will instead likely focus on Taylor getting direct handoffs. I project him closer to five or six carries with maybe one reception.
CeeDee Lamb Under 3.5 Receptions
Koerner: In the last two Pro Bowls, six of 16 wide receivers have clear 3.5 receptions. I’m projecting both teams to have fewer passing yards than in year’s past based on the charity rushing incentives listed above. Instead of the 300 average passing yards per team in the last two Pro Bowls, I’m projecting 270 to 285 passing yards for each team.
Lamb will be competing for targets with Deebo Samuel, Justin Jefferson, Mike Evans, George Kittle and Kyle Pitts. This is super steep competition without enough pass yards to go around. I’m project Lamb closer to three receptions.
Diontae Johnson Over 36.5 Receiving Yards
Chris Raybon: Johnson is going to want to show people what he’s about at this Pro Bowl. He’s been strapped with bad quarterback play — Ben Roethlisberger’s aDot has been under 10 yards each year of his career. We’ve seen Johnson get open deep down the field and get a lot of separation. With a QB like Justin Herbert, Johnson could hit this on just one catch.
Kyle Pitts Over 38.5 Receiving Yards
Raybon: This just checks all the boxes for me. There are only two tight ends on each team and one has to be on the field. George Kittle is coming off an emotional playoff run, whereas Pitts has been resting and will want to show out for his rookie Pro Bowl.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
