The Super Bowl is the most wagered-on event in the world for one good reason: the props.
The length of the national anthem. What color Gatorade gets poured on the winning coach. Super Bowl MVP. Even the damn coin flip. Betting on those is an unmatched tradition.
These bets include longshots like "Will there be a Fat Man TD?," "Will there be a 2-point conversion?," or even "Will there be an Octopus?"
In fact, betting on the Super Bowl MVP may actually provide positive long-term expected value. For instance, the Bengals are getting about +160 on them to win the game outright, but Joe Burrow is getting +225 odds to win Super Bowl MVP.
The only Bengals teammate listed as an option at most major American sportsbooks is JaMarr Chase.
An interesting variant of that bet that DraftKings has released is: "What Position Will Win Super Bowl MVP?"
Which Position Will Win Super Bowl MVP for Super Bowl LVI: Bengals vs. Rams
Odds are as of Friday and are according to DraftKings.
- Quarterback -300
- Wide Receiver +250
- Running Back/Fullback +900
- Defensive Lineman +1000
- Linebacker +1100
- Defensive Back +1200
- Tight End +2800
- Kicker/Punter/Long Snapper +6000
- Offensive Lineman +15000
Betting odds of -300 imply a probability of 75%. That's the break-even point — if you believe that there's better than a 75% chance that the Super Bowl MVP will be a quarterback, then this bet offers value.
A quarterback has won this award 15 times in the last 22 seasons. The only other positions to win during that time frame include three linebackers, three wide receivers and one safety.
No running back has won the award since Terrell Davis in 1998. And yet, the implied odds of that happening on Sunday are 10%, according to DraftKings.
