With both the Bengals and Rams ranking in the upper half of the NFL in passing percentage, it's easy to overlook the impact of running backs in the 2022 Super Bowl
With the presence of wideouts Cooper Kupp (NFL Offensive Player of the Year), Ja'Marr Chase (Offensive Rookie of the Year), Odell Beckham and Tee Higgins, most fans thinking this game will be determined by the passing attacks.
But there is a ton of overlooked value with the rushing attacks when it comes to player props.
Let's take a look at four rushing prop bets — two RBs, one wide receiver, and one quarterback — for the biggest game of the NFL season. We'll leverage Sean Koerner's industry-leading projections from the Action Labs Props Tool, as well.
Rushing Props For Bengals
Ja'Marr Chase Over 3.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
The Super Bowl tends to bring out creativity in coaches, and the Bengals need to find a way to get the ball in Ja’Marr Chase’s hands as much as possible.
After finishing the season without a rushing attempt in four straight games and six of seven, Chase has seen at least one rushing attempt in each of Cincinnati’s three playoff games. This includes three rushing attempts in their Wild Card playoff win over the Raiders.
Chase has 4.39 speed, and head coach Zac Taylor could deploy Chase in a similar role as San Francisco’s Deebo Samuel. At just 3.5 yards with -110 odds, Chase is worth a bet as the most explosive Bengals offensive player.
This bet is tethered to my Under 5.5 receptions bet for Chase, as I expect Los Angeles cornerback Jalen Ramsey to keep the Cincinnati rookie below that total. We project Chase for 5.0 rushing yards, putting him above this over 42% above the rushing total.
Joe Burrow Under 10.5 Rushing Yards (-105)
I'm playing past results here, with Joe Burrow failing to beat this number is 13 of 19 games. In two additional games, he tallied exactly 11 yards. Los Angeles has been effective at limiting rushing yardage from opposing quarterbacks in the playoffs:
- Kyler Murray: 2 rush attempts, 6 rush yards
- Tom Brady: 1 att, 0 yards
- Jimmy Garoppolo: 1 att, 4 yards
For the season, Burrow is averaging just 7.4 yards per game. We project Burrow for exactly 10 rushing yards per game, making this a 7-rated prop by Sean Koerner’s Player Props Tool.
Rushing Props for Rams
Sony Michel Over 20.5 Rushing Yards (+105)
Do you think the Rams will fully trust Cam Akers?
Look for Los Angeles to split the work with Sony Michel, especially after two key fumbles by Akers against Tampa Bay that almost lost the game.
Michel dominated the backfield carries from Week 12 to the end of the regular season. He also earned 10 carries in the NFC Championship Game against a stingy San Francisco defense. Michel has not fumbled in 16 straight games this season.
After averaging 4.1 yards per carry in the regular season, Michel should see enough opportunities to crest this number at +105 odds.
We project Michel for 28 rushing yards, making this an 8-rated prop on Sean Koerner's Player Props Tool.
Cam Akers Under 65.5 Rushing Yards (-100)
For all the reasons listed above, I am fading Akers' rushing total on Super Bowl Sunday.
Cincinnati has been stout against opposing rushers, especially in the playoffs. The Bengals held Derrick Henry (62 yards) and all Chiefs running backs below this number in the past two games. Akers has only averaged 2.8 yards per carry in the three playoff games, and has failed to even crest 60 yards in any of the three games.
With Darrell Henderson potentially in the mix after recovering from a knee injury, there is even more competition for carries in the Rams backfield.
I'm gladly taking the under on this rushing yardage total, with Los Angeles playing "running back roulette" on Sunday.
