If you’re looking for an edge when it comes to player prop bets for Super Bowl LVI, you’ll definitely want to check out Sean Koerner’s projections in our Player Props Tool on Action Labs prior to kick off on Sunday.
While the market on many of the available NFL prop bets is relatively tight, there are a couple of value plays that stand out this week on the Los Angeles Rams.
Keep reading to find out why a Cooper Kupp over and a Van Jefferson under are my top plays for this Super Bowl showdown with the Cincinnati Bengals.
Receiving NFL Prop Bets For Rams
Cooper Kupp Over 105.5 Receiving Yards
If there’s one thing that has become abundantly clear when watching the Rams this season, it’s that the offense runs through Cooper Kupp. Not only did he complete one of the best seasons for a wide receiver in NFL history with his 145 catches, 1,947 receiving yards and 16 touchdowns, but he did so in the first season with quarterback Matthew Stafford at the helm.
In the biggest game of the season, there’s no reason to believe that the Rams' offensive strategy will change here against this 24th-ranked Bengals pass defense.
Unsurprisingly, this unit has been susceptible to opposing pass catchers having big games, including a 9/95/1 outing by Travis Kelce in the AFC Championship Game and a 5/142/1 game to A.J. Brown the week before.
While this number feels high — and it would be for any other receiver in the league — it’s actually a bit soft for Kupp against this struggling Bengals pass defense. In fact, Kupp has surpassed this current prop total 13 times already this season and has also done so in seven of his last nine games.
Don’t let the high number discourage you — all signs point to another monster game from Kupp on Sunday. This prop opened at 103.5 earlier in the week and is already up to 105.5, so be sure to grab it before it moves any higher. I’d be comfortable playing this up up to 108.5.
Van Jefferson Under 33.5 Receiving Yards
While Van Jefferson has had his moments this year, his production has fallen off a cliff since Odell Beckham Jr. emerged as a reliable option for Stafford during the second half of the season.
The drop off has been particularly steep during their current playoff run, with Jefferson averaging just 2.6 targets, 1.6 receptions and 26 receiving yards per game during that span. In fact, that number is even a bit misleading given his one-catch, 41-yard performance against the Arizona Cardinals in the Divisional Round. In the following two games, those numbers dipped to an average of just two catches and 19 yards per game.
He also has a poor individual matchup in this one. Per PFF’s WR/CB Matchup tool, Jefferson has the worst matchup of any receiver in this game, coming in with just a 4.1 matchup advantage against his projected defenders. If that’s not enough, he’s also only surpassed this 33.5 receiving yard prop total twice since Week 15.
As the third option in the passing game behind Kupp and Beckham, Jefferson should once again struggle to find consistent targets in this one. Even with Tyler Higbee ruled out, backup tight end Kendall Blanton stepped in seamlessly last week, corralling five catches for 57 yards in his absence. Given last week’s success, I expect Blanton to assume this passing game role once again, which could leave Jefferson with even fewer targets.
I’m confidently taking the under on this one and would play it down to 29.5 yards.
