The biggest NFL game of the year will likely be determined by the efficiency of the quarterbacks in the 2022 Super Bowl.
As the team's most important position, the scoring opportunities for each offense are tethered to whether or not the signal-caller can limit mistakes and get the most explosive players involved in the offense.
The Bengals and Rams both provide plenty of weapons for Joe Burrow and Matthew Stafford. But how will those offensive playmakers affect Super Bowl prop bets?
Let's take a look at four quarterback prop bets for Super Bowl LVI.
Super Bowl Prop Bets For Joe Burrow
Joe Burrow Under 276.5 Passing Yards
Burrow has been under this passing yardage total in 11 of his 19 games this season.
The Rams ranked sixth in Football Outsiders' pass defense DVOA in the regular season and will put up more resistance in the biggest game of Burrow's two-year NFL career.
Cincinnati will prioritize running the ball, keeping its vulnerable pass defense off the field against the Rams. Similar to the game plan against Kansas City, look for a heavy dose of Joe Mixon and a passing game filled with short-to-intermediate passes.
I don’t think the Bengals want to get into a fast-paced battle with the Rams. I project Cincinnati to mimic its AFC Championship Game scheme, where it balanced 23 completions with 27 rushing attempts.
This is still a Cincinnati team that ranked 30th in pace, per Football Outsiders, and will not drastically deviate from its regular-season success. Even if this game hits the high projected total, that does not equate to Burrow reaching this total. The Bengals hit 26 or more points seven times this season when Burrow failed to reach this passing yardage total.
We project Burrow for 271.5 passing yards on Sean Koerner's Player Props Tool on Action Labs.
Joe Burrow Under 36.5 Passing Attempts
Similarly, Burrow has also thrown under this total in 11 of his 19 games. Two of the games he went over this number were overtime battles, including the AFC Championship Game at Kansas City.
Given their pace and preferred offensive game plan, the Bengals usually do not throw the ball this often. If Burrow didn’t beat this prop in regulation against the Chiefs after facing a 21-3 deficit early, it’s difficult to imagine that he would go over this number in a Super Bowl game with just a four-point spread.
Based on the Bengals' pace of play and Burrow’s past performances this season, I’m taking the under on his pass attempts.
Super Bowl Prop Bets For Matthew Stafford
Matthew Stafford Over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns
Stafford hasn’t thrown for more than two touchdown passes in any postseason game, so why bet the over?
This is a bet on the Bengals run defense, which ended the season 13th in DVOA. That is significantly better than a Cincinnati passing defense that ranked 24th among all teams.
Stafford did throw for three or more touchdowns in nine of his 17 regular-season games, which means it was more likely to happen than not. The Bengals also allowed the 11th-most schedule adjusted fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks while also giving up only 13 rushing touchdowns all season.
The Bengals' red-zone pass defense was also the fourth-worst in DVOA, giving Stafford another reason to look to score through the air. At the +148 odds on FanDuel, the upside value is certainly there.
Matthew Stafford Longest Completion Over 39.5 Yards
The Rams have three explosive wide receivers in Cooper Kupp, Odell Beckham Jr. and Van Jefferson.
Kupp ranked first in yards after catch and averaged 13.4 yards per reception. Despite carrying only 4.62 40-yard dash speed, he ranked top 10 in air yards and deep targets at the position, per PlayerProfiler.
Beckham still has the 4.43 speed and tallied a catch of 29 yards or more in two of the three playoff games.
However, the best player to hit this prop may be Van Jefferson. The 25-year-old with 4.39 speed averaged 16 yards per reception on the season. He also had a reception of 41 yards or more four different times this season.
The Cincinnati secondary can give up big pass plays, and Los Angeles certainly has the weapons to attack vertically.
With just -110 odds at most sportsbooks, I'll take a shot of Stafford connecting for at least one big pass play.
