If you’re looking for an edge when it comes to player prop bets for Super Bowl LVI, you’ll definitely want to check out Sean Koerner’s projections in our Player Props Tool on Action Labs prior to kickoff on Sunday.
While the market on many of the available NFL prop bets is relatively tight, there are a couple of value plays that stand out this week on the Cincinnati Bengals.
Keep reading to find out why a Tyler Boyd under and a Joe Mixon under are my top plays for this Super Bowl showdown with the Los Angeles Rams.
Receiving NFL Prop Bets For Bengals
Tyler Boyd Under 4.5 Receptions
While the pass attack has been a key pillar to success for the Bengals during their current playoff run, much of that production has come away from Tyler Boyd. In fact, in the three games that have led up to this unlikely Super Bowl appearance, the Bengals offense has accumulated 72 points and 842 passing yards, with Boyd accounting for just 62 of those yards and a touchdown.
He’s also become an afterthought for quarterback Joe Burrow relative to his other options. Since the playoffs began, Boyd is averaging just 4.6 targets and 3.3 receptions per game. Instead, we’ve seen targets funneled to Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, C.J. Uzomah and Joe Mixon at a much higher rate.
To make matters worse, he also has a poor individual matchup in this one. Per PFF’s WR/CB Matchup tool, Boyd comes in with just a 22.6 matchup advantage against his projected defenders, the second-worst mark in this game.
While the current playoff run has only emphasized this trend, it’s actually something that’s been happening for a while. Since Week 14, Boyd has exceeded this 4.5 reception prop total just once, something that I don’t expect to change against the Rams' sixth-ranked pass defense.
Some sportsbooks have already moved the line on this down to 3.5 receptions, but you can still grab under 4.5 at FanDuel. The -160 juice on this one is definitely high, but there’s still value here considering this line should be closer to -200.
Joe Mixon Over 3.5 Receptions
Unlike Boyd, Mixon has been a beneficiary of the pass-first approach the Bengals have emphasized on their run to Super Bowl LVI. While they only averaged a 58.3% pass rate on the season (19th-highest), that numbered has jumped up to 63.4% over their last three games and has been elevated over their early season average since Week 16.
While Mixon’s rushing production did return in the Bengals' AFC Championship Game victory over the Chiefs, it is his receiving production that has been perhaps a bigger story. Since Week 15, Mixon is averaging six targets, 5.2 receptions and 43 receiving yards per game. While he’s always been a solid receiving back, he’s become a key cog for Burrow down the stretch.
In a game where we expect the Rams to be bringing pressure early and often, Mixon will once again assume a valuable safety valve role with Burrow looking to get rid of the ball quickly. The Bengals offensive line has allowed a 36.3 pressure rate so far in the playoffs, up from an average of 33% from the regular season. If the Bengals are going to have any success in this one, Burrow’s ability to take advantage of the short pass will be crucial here once again.
At a total of just 3.5 receptions, I’m hammering the over on this one. I like it at the current number, but I would hesitate if the line were to increase any further.
