With Super Bowl Sunday approaching, we'll try to finish the playoffs on a high note and cash another same-game parlay ticket.
However, while I'll be assessing the big game from a Rams perspective, I'll also incorporate certain aspects such as the total and player props. We'll also mix in some unders to ensure that our ticket is as balanced as possible. That'll create the foundation of our same-game parlay, which has seven legs and is valued at +1200.
I've also added a bonus leg that will be part of a second ticket to boost our odds to +1800.
All odds provided are courtesy of PointsBet.
Should you bet same-game parlays? We outline all the factors you should consider when betting on same-game parlays here.
Super Bowl Same-Game Parlay
Cam Akers 50+ Rushing Yards (-240)
After tearing his Achilles tendon in training camp, it took just 173 days for Akers to return to an NFL game. In his first game back in Week 18 against the 49ers, he carried the ball five times for three yards. However, that lack of production didn't seem to bother the Rams one bit, as evidenced by his number of carries this postseason.
Akers registered at least 13 rushes in each of the Rams' three playoff games with an average of 18 carries per game. Even with an average of 2.8 yards per carry, the Rams are still committed to giving him the rock. The second-year player logged at least 48 rushing yards in each of the three games against opposing teams, and those were all ranked in the top seven in Football Outsiders' run defense DVOA.
Akers likely would have rushed for at least 50 yards against the 49ers if he didn't pick up a shoulder injury in the first half. Yet, he still rushed for 45 yards on 10 carries before the injury and carried the ball three more times to finish with 48 rushing yards. With two weeks of rest heading into the Super Bowl, he should be good to go on Sunday and get his share of touches against a Bengals team ranked 16th in run defense DVOA.
Odell Beckham Jr. 50+ Receiving Yards (-240)
Beckham has been a revelation for the Rams, proving to be a reliable outlet for Matthew Stafford in the postseason. Through the three games, he's logged at least 50 receiving yards, but more importantly, he was targeted at least eight times in each of the past two games.
With the Bengals secondary likely honing in on Cooper Kupp, I think we can expect to see Beckham continue to get his fair share of targets on Sunday.
Tyler Boyd Under 40.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
I wanted to find an under for a player prop, and Boyd's receiving yards seem to tick all the boxes.
Boyd is essentially the third receiver in the Bengals offense, and his production has waned in each of his past four games. Frankly, I don't see a scenario where the Cincinnati offensive line gives quarterback Joe Burrow sufficient time to get to his third and fourth reads.
We've seen Tee Higgins average 99.5 receiving yards in Cincinnati's past two games as the second receiver. Bengals running back Joe Mixon is also playing a more significant role in the passing game with 29 targets in the past five games.
Boyd seems like the odd man out in this spot, which creates inherent value on the under.
1H Under 26.5 Points (-176)
One of the most profitable betting angles this NFL season was playing the under in the first half. Per our Action Labs database, the first-half total is 154-124-6 to the under for 16.46 units since the start of the regular season.
That trend could be even more significant on Sunday given that our database, which captures Super Bowl first-half results dating back to 2006, shows the total is 10-5-1 to the under.
We know the Super Bowl is unlike any other game in the regular season with longer pregame ceremonies. Even with the high-powered Chiefs in the Super Bowl in the past two seasons, the first-half total still finished under.
In 2019, we got our first look at Sean McVay's Rams in the Super Bowl, and they failed to even score a point in the first half. This postseason, we've seen a much more conservative game plan from the Rams with a run play rate up to 47.78% from 41% during the regular season.
Furthermore, per rbsdm.com, Los Angeles ranks 26th in the first half with a -.158 rush EPA compared to ninth on dropback EPA (.153). As a result, these numbers tell me the Bengals would happily welcome more running plays from the Rams.
Under 55.5 (-276)
This play ties back in with my projection that we'll see McVay utilize more of a conservative game plan. The Bengals are also likely to induce more running plays from the Rams by often dropping eight players back into coverage, just as we saw in the second half against the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game. Despite fewer players in the box, Cincinnati still managed four sacks against Kansas City.
In this postseason, the Bengals defense has held the opposition to 19.6 points per game and allowed touchdowns on only 38.46% of their red zone trips, according to TeamRankings. The Bengals have also successfully forced turnovers as they boast a +1.7 turnover margin during this playoff run.
NFL totals are 154-128-2 to the under this season for 12.25 units and — with an opening Super Bowl total of at least 48.5 — the total is 7-3 to the under.
This trend includes the past three Super Bowls, which also finished below the total.
Bengals 2H +4.5 (-171)
If you expect the Bengals to be chasing the game, I think you have to play them against the spread (ATS) in the second half despite your Rams bias. This season, Cincinnati has been the best second-half team in the league as it's 15-4-1 ATS, 7-1-1 ATS as an underdog and a perfect 3-0 ATS in the postseason.
Bengals Alt Line +10.5 (-276)
Even if you like the Rams to win this contest, I like the idea of playing the Bengals on the alternate line at +10.5 points. Since our parlay is primarily based on a conservative game plan by both coaches, I don't see either team getting too far ahead of its opponent in this contest. The Rams have a +11 point margin in only one of their past eight games, and the Bengals haven't lost by more than 10 points in seven of their past eight games. Furthermore, since 2004, Super Bowl teams catching at least 4.5 points are 8-1 ATS.
Thus, you can still root for this play even if you have a Rams moneyline ticket tucked away in your pocket.
Bonus Play: Joe Mixon 50+ Rushing Yards (-210)
I'll have a second ticket that will include Joe Mixon to get at least 50 rushing yards. This will be part of a bonus play because I think the first seven plays are pretty balanced, and I don't want to load up on a bunch of overs in a game in which I'm leaning more to the under. In Mixon's 16 games, he's only finished below 50 rushing yards four times.
The concern here is that Mixon will be up against a Los Angeles team that ranks fourth in run defense DVOA. However, there is a chance that the Rams will opt not to stack the box as much as they did against the 49ers, given their strength in the running game. If that's the case, 50 rushing yards could still be within reach for Mixon on Sunday.
