NFL Draft Best Bets
The 2023 NFL Draft has proven to be a chaotic event to bet on, but we've finally made it to Night 1.
Betting odds have moved up, down and all around over the past week, mostly because of hype that has sent Will Levis toward the top of most people's mock drafts. Bryce Young is the presumed first overall pick, but we're in for potential chaos after that.
Our staff of NFL and college football betting analysts have studied players and mock drafts all over the internet — and they have settled on their favorite picks.
Check out the future NFL players who we're fading and buying on Thursday night below.
Hendon Hooker Draft Position Over 31.5 (+160) · DraftKings
I don’t buy the Hendon Hooker Round 1 hype for one simple reason: He’s old.
Combine that with the fact he’s coming off a late-season torn ACL, and I think that’s enough to push the former Tennessee Volunteers quarterback out of the first round.
Since the 2018 draft, there have been 18 quarterbacks selected in the first round. Of those 18, only one was older than 23 when he was drafted: Steelers QB Kenny Pickett, who many regarded as a reach.
Remember that Malik Willis, who had a similar yet less prolific college career, fell to the third round. Both Willis and Hooker were older (Willis 23, Hooker 25) quarterbacks who had a transfer under their belt before starring in college.
I don’t think Hooker will fall to the third like Willis; he was far too prolific while in Knoxville. But he is not a finished, ready-to-start quarterback.
According to Pro Football Focus, Hooker played in a “gimmicky” offense at Tennessee. According to NFL.com, “the most important question to be answered is whether he can thrive outside of the Tennessee offense."
This question has led him to be consistently rated outside of the top 32 by the draft media. Arif Hasan’s Industry Consensus Big Board has him listed as the 51st prospect.
Quarterbacks always seem to go surprisingly early, but I think a potential project QB who’s 25 years old and coming off knee surgery is more likely to fall outside the first round than be taken inside it.
The Las Vegas Raiders were one of the first teams in the headlines this offseason after they released longtime starting quarterback Derek Carr. The Raiders then replaced Carr with Jimmy Garoppolo in free agency. While Garoppolo may not be the long-term starter in Las Vegas, he did sign a three-year $67 million deal, which may be enough for the Raiders to bypass a quarterback in the draft this year.
A more immediate need is cornerback. Last season, the Raiders ranked 29th in passing yards allowed, tied for 11th for most touchdown passes allowed (25) and tied for the second-fewest interceptions with six.
Fortunately for the Raiders, this is a very strong cornerback class. They may even get the choice of the No. 1 corner on their board.
Pick: Raiders 1st Selection: Cornerback (-125) |
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If you look at the odds for the No. 7 pick, Illinois CB Devon Witherspoon and Oregon CB Christian Gonzalez are co-favorites at +300 on FanDuel. On DraftKings, Witherspoon is second behind Ohio State left tackle Paris Johnson Jr. at +330 with Gonzalez right behind at +350.
If the Lions bypass a cornerback at six, Las Vegas will have a chance to decide between them. While there’s more value in picking one of them, you could simply take the Raiders to draft the position still at plus money.
Witherspoon is the favorite to be the No. 6 overall pick (+100 / -130), and the Lions drafted his former teammate Kerby Joseph in the third round last year.
If you did want to sprinkle either Witherspoon or Gonzalez, I would place between either 0.25-0.5U on Gonzalez.
Deonte Banks Draft Position Over 20.5 (+100) · DraftKings
Deonte Banks is one player who has gotten a lot of love since the NFL Combine. He began to shoot up everyone’s boards after running a 4.35 40-yard dash and posting a 97th-percentile vertical and 98th-percentile broad jump.
NFL teams do tend to love freak athletes and typically overdraft them. However, they also recognize that much more goes into playing cornerback in the league than just being a great athlete.
The league also loves players with production and a clean injury history, neither of which Banks has. Despite starting 21 games and appearing in 30 at Maryland, Banks had just two career interceptions. He also suffered a shoulder injury that cost him almost the entirety of his 2022 season.
While Banks did come back last year and is likely healed, this injury history could still knock him down some teams’ boards.
Banks has all of the physical tools you could want in a starting NFL cornerback, but his technique could use some work, in my opinion. Banks’ best fit is as a press-man corner, but he can struggle to read and react to plays in coverage. He had some success in zone defense but was also undisciplined at times.
Being as physical as he is, it also shouldn’t be shocking that Banks racked up eight penalties against him last season. He’ll need to become less aggressive when pressing, including cutting down on his propensity to hold receivers through their routes.
With Witherspoon and Gonzalez in the top tier of cornerbacks, Banks should end up being drafted in the same tier as Joey Porter Jr. and Brian Branch, according to the general consensus right now. Grinding the Mocks currently lists Banks’ expected draft position as 22.1 and his EDP ranking at 23rd.
Banks has been commonly mocked to both Washington and Pittsburgh in the late teens, but both of those teams have other needs they could go with as well.
Based on how I believe Banks looks on tape, I wouldn’t be shocked to see him slip outside the top 20, which is a bet I am willing to take at plus money.
Joey Porter Jr. Draft Position Under 19.5 (+162) · FanDuel
Penn State’s Joey Porter Jr. is right outside the top-two CBs in the draft (Devon Witherspoon and Christian Gonzalez). However, I believe he could emerge as the best cornerback from this draft.
Cornerback could be an option for the Detroit Lions at No. 6 and Las Vegas Raiders at No. 7. Porter could factor into those discussions, as well, but we don't need him to go that high for this pick to hit.
The Atlanta Falcons have the eighth pick and recently acquired Jeff Okudah from the Lions. However, they could still use more secondary help. At 10, the Philadelphia Eagles are relying on 32-year-old Darius Slay and 29-year-old James Bradberry.
Porter could also be in play at No. 14 for the Patriots and at 16 for the Commanders. Cornerback is the favorite to be Washington’s first pick at -125, and it's the second-most likely for the Patriots (+250 at DraftKings).
Porter going 17th overall to Pittsburgh, where his father enjoyed a great career, would be one of the stories of the draft. Then we're back to the Lions, who could be an option for Porter if they don't pick a cornerback at No. 6.
Porter is a physical and long corner at 6-foot-2 who thrives playing press-man coverage. He fits the prototype that many teams covet to stop the larger X-receivers. With seven potential landing spots, I will happily take +162 for Porter to be a top-19 pick.
Pick: Joey Porter Jr. Under 19.5 |
Bryce Young First QB, Jaxon Smith-Njigba First WR, Devon Witherspoon First CB · DraftKings Parlay (-165)
Let’s disregard the “trusted” sources on Reddit and feel confident in Young being the first overall pick in this year’s NFL Draft. This is basically a parlay of Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Devon Witherspoon being the first players selected at their position.
Witherspoon is the odds-on favorite to be the pick to the Lions at No. 6, and for good reason. Dan Campbell is looking for tone-setting players who bring an edge to the football field. Witherspoon’s aggressiveness and confidence fit this Lions defense and are what the secondary needs desperately.
Smith-Njigba is the cleanest wide receiver prospect in this draft and is live to be selected as high as No. 12. There is a cluster of teams needing help at the position from picks 12-15, and if he were to slide any further than that, I would expect the Commanders' and Steelers’ phones to be ringing off the hook.
Both Zay Flowers and Jordan Addison have just enough question marks to make teams picking in the top 20 uneasy. JSN will be the top receiver selected this year because NFL teams in today’s era put a premium on positional versatility and the ability to make plays after the catch.
As the week has progressed, both of these prospects have gained even more steam toward cashing this play. Witherspoon can be found between the -270 to -300 range to be the top cornerback selected, while JSN has moved from -300 to -425 at DraftKings in the last 48 hours.
I believe this three-player parlay has more than a 62% chance of coming to fruition, which is what we need to lay the juice of -165. It can be found on DraftKings under “draft pick parlays.”
Will Anderson Draft Position Over 3.5 (-135) · DraftKings
For all of his talent, athleticism, pedigree and collegiate production, I’m officially ready to sell Will Anderson Jr. in the draft market.
Well, at least in this market. I still believe he could be the first defensive player off the board, beating out Tyree Wilson, Devon Witherspoon, Jalen Carter and others.
That said, too many things can happen toward the top of the draft, and there’s too little room for “error” if you’re betting on Anderson being drafted in the top three.
First, it’s becoming more and more likely by the day that the top two, three or even four picks could all be quarterbacks.
That instantly puts a huge dent into Anderson’s draft stock, at least in the betting market.
Meanwhile, trades by any team among the top three picks likely put a dent into Anderson’s top-three chances, given most teams would likely trade up to take a quarterback rather than an edge.
Secondly, Wilson is officially the overwhelming favorite to be the first defensive player drafted. While I don’t necessarily agree with that, it carries weight for Anderson because if he’s not the top defensive player off the board, I would say it’s increasingly unlikely he goes in the top three.
The mock draft market still values Anderson as a top-three pick, and most big boards have him as a No. 1 or 2 prospect. Anderson’s college production also vastly outweighs Wilson’s.
However, Wilson is sometimes perceived as the better athletic prospect with a higher upside, and we saw that narrative play out in last year’s draft when the Jaguars took Travon Walker with the top overall pick over Aidan Hutchinson.
At the minimum, Wilson has a bigger frame more suited to the NFL, whereas Anderson is seen as lacking “ideal body mass,” per Dane Brugler’s Beast Guide for The Athletic.
For example, from Peter Schrager on the Pat McAfee Show:
“The DeMeco Ryans formula is, get me a long, big, defensive lineman that we can start working around because that is what we did in San Francisco … the guy who is that is Tyree Wilson out of Texas Tech.”
Ultimately, when I envision the scenarios that can happen toward the top of the draft, the scenarios where Anderson is not a top-three pick (too many quarterbacks taken, too many trades, Wilson goes before Anderson, Carter goes before Anderson) vastly outweigh the scenarios where Anderson is a top-three pick (is the first defensive player drafted at either No. 2 to Houston or No. 3 to Arizona).
I’m willing to bet on that take, even at a slightly juiced number.
