No position in sports is more important than quarterback. When the 2023 NFL Draft kicks off on Thursday night, four or five QBs are expected to have their names called in the first round.
Alabama's Bryce Young remains a heavy favorite at No. 1. C.J. Stroud (Ohio State) and Will Levis (Kentucky) should go top 10. Unproven Anthony Richardson (Florida) is expected to go first round, and Hendon Hooker (Tennessee) could sneak in too.
It's that last name that's most interesting. Hooker is a unique prospect, a 25-year-old coming off a torn ACL with terrific counting numbers and a bevy of experience.
I wrote this week about the top-four QB prospects and three criteria I use to evaluate QBs: accuracy, interception rate and number of starts. I don't rate Levis as a first-round talent, but there's little doubt that he and the other three — Young, Stroud and Richardson — will land in the first round.
Will Hooker join them? I'm dubious. I'll make the case for and against Hooker and why under 4.5 First Round QBs is my favorite 2023 NFL Draft bet on the board.
Hendon Hooker Scouting Report
Completion percentage: 66.9%
Interception rate: 1.3%
Games started: 38
Let's start by evaluating Hooker using the same rubric as the other prospects. By these three simple metrics, it's easy to see Hooker's potential. He's accurate, rarely throws interceptions and has a ton of experience (starting four seasons).
On the surface, Hooker checks all three boxes. At 6-foot-4 and 222 pounds, he has prototypical QB size, and he's a terrific runner with 25 rushing touchdowns and over 2,000 yards on the ground for his career.
Hooker has steadily improved, with his completion percentage increasing each year to an elite 69.8% this season. He threw 58 TDs with only five interceptions in two Tennessee seasons as he took a big step forward from two years at Virginia Tech. Hooker had especially high marks as a deep thrower at Tennessee — 11th in Deep Yards and ninth in ADOT, per PFF.
Dig past those three surface-level numbers though, and you find reasons for concern.
Hooker almost never throws interceptions, but he had 15 fumbles over the last two seasons. He ranked fourth in the nation in fumbles and fumbles lost this season. Ball security is a problem, especially for a QB with a propensity to take off and run.
Hooker also struggled under pressure. He had a 43.7 Pressure Grade (out of 100) at PFF and eats a ton of sacks. His 65 sacks rank sixth most in the nation over the past two seasons. Those 65 per 196 pressured dropbacks mean almost one sack every three pressures. That 33% rate when pressured is the second worst in the country.
Additionally, Hooker has a tendency to take off and run at the first sign of trouble. He had an 11.4% scramble per dropback rate and he had only five completions all season when moved off the dropback spot. Put another way, every nine times Hooker saw pressure, he got sacked three times and took off running once. That's four missed opportunities down the field.
These are quarterback stats and traits that tend to carry over from one level to the next. But they're just the start to three huge red flags for Hooker.
Hooker's Red Flags
1. Hooker's outstanding Tennessee production came in a gimmicky offense.
You hear a lot about "pro-style offense." It helps to take snaps under center and run concepts that will translate easily to the pros. But college is full of offenses at the other end of the spectrum.
Josh Heupel's Tennessee offense is extremely gimmicky. Heupel runs incessant no-huddle with many simple routes and a heavy dose of go-balls, tiring the opponent out and relentlessly attacking down the field. That system has unquestionably been successful. It makes things easy on the QB, as it limits and lets them fire down field early and often.
But NFL quarterbacks need to do more than fire go-balls against tired secondaries. They need to stand in the pocket and make complicated reads, go through multiple levels of progressions and route trees. Heupel's offense obscures whether guys like Hooker have those skills necessary for the next level — and it's further masked by projected top-100 draft pick receivers (Jalin Hyatt and Cedric Tillman). Tennessee's offense was designed to get the ball out quickly to the WRs and let them do the heavy lifting.
Kyler Murray played in a gimmicky college offense and has had NFL success, but there are myriad other early QB picks from gimmicky offenses with shakier reviews, like Baker Mayfield, Zach Wilson, Marcus Mariota, Johnny Manziel, Sam Bradford and Brandon Weeden.
2. Hooker is still recovering from a torn ACL.
Hooker tore his left ACL in November. Torn ACLs are no longer career-threatening, and many players recover fully and go on to have productive careers.
Nonetheless, Hooker's injury meant he missed the usual pro days and workout chances to win scouts over. It also means he'll likely miss summer training camps and maybe even the preseason, starting the year behind the eight ball and potentially meaning part or all of his rookie season is lost.
Even assuming a full recovery, players typically aren't at their best until a couple years after injury, which would rob a year or two of Hooker's valuable (and expensive) first-round contract. That's an even bigger issue considering his age.
3. Hooker is 25 years old and would be one of the oldest first-round QBs ever.
Hooker is already 25, and age is not just a number with draft picks. Youth equals upside, and Hooker's age robs much of his potential upside and development curve.
Hooker will turn 26 before the season ends. Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen and Joe Burrow are 26. Justin Herbert is 25. Jalen Hurts is 24. These guys have MVPs and Super Bowl berths; Hooker has yet to play a snap. He'll be in his 30s before signing a second contract.
Take a look at this chart of the oldest QBs drafted in the first round since 1967, with research from FootballPerspective.com:
Hooker would be the second-oldest QB ever drafted in the first round, and it's not a pretty list. He's almost two full years older than Burrow and Carson Wentz, two recent picks considered older when drafted.
In fact, only three quarterbacks age 25 or older have been selected before the sixth round in the history of the draft, per ESPN Stats and Information. Those three — Weeden, Chris Weinke, John Beck — went a combined 8-44 as NFL starters.
There's no way around it: Hooker's age would make him a wild statistical outlier in the history of the draft.
Conclusion
It's entirely possible Hooker ends up a good NFL QB, but history says he should not and will not be a first-round selection.
Quarterback is so uniquely important that we do this every year heading up to the draft. Everyone agrees on the top tier of quarterbacks and gets bored, and then we spend two months talking about the next guy on the list and slowly inch him up mock drafts.
Last year, it was Malik Willis getting late first-round buzz. He was drafted 86th. Some other names that come to mind over the last 15 years: Drew Lock (2019; drafted 42nd), Paxton Lynch (2016; 26th), Jimmy Garoppolo (2014; 62nd), Geno Smith (2013; 39th), Andy Dalton (2011; 35th) and Brian Brohm (2008; 56th). Only one of those hyped prospects snuck into the first round. Most ended up closer to the third round.
Hooker got Monday buzz when he was mocked in the first round by NFL insiders Peter King and Peter Schrager. I think that's just buying us value. Hooker ranks 62nd on the industry consensus big board. He's 52nd at PFF, and most boards have him in that 50-to-75 range, a second- or third-round talent.
There's an idea that NFL teams trade into the late first to grab their QB of the future, but that's not happening often these days. That extra contract year is no longer the same incentive, and it's less valuable trading for "the future" when you're getting a 25-year-old recovering from a knee injury. We also have one less first-round pick this year, and the five teams at the bottom of the round have little history of trading down.
None of that means Hooker can't be a first-round pick — all it takes is one team.
But I'll bet against five first-round QBs, effectively a bet against Hooker in round one. We've only ever seen five QBs in the first round four times (1983, 1998, 2018, 2021) and we've only seen one QB older than Hooker drafted in the first round ever.
Under 4.5 first round quarterbacks is my favorite bet of the 2023 NFL Draft. It's a bet on history and a bet on common sense. Take the under.
Pick: Under 4.5 1st-Round QBs (+162) |
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