It's firmly NFL Draft season given the amount of buzz and rumors being created and speculated this week.
Since Monday morning, Bryce Young has canceled his remaining visits and cemented himself as the No. 1 pick, and Will Levis has become a favorite to go No. 2 overall. There has even been some speculation as to who will be the top defensive player taken.
Given that it's draft season, it's also mock draft season. Experts across the internet are giving their best opinions on where the top rookie prospects will go.
Vegas Refund has been tracking mocks for more than a month. Here is an estimated draft position using 12 experts who have released mocks since Monday morning:
There has been even more movement in the past 24 hours that would affect odds boards for the draft.
1) The biggest storyline entering the draft looks like it will be the Texans at No. 2 overall. Rumors are swirling that Houston is not as high on C.J. Stroud as many would have thought, and that general manager Nick Caserio may pass on a QB altogether.
Then, on Tuesday, Will Levis became the favorite to be the No. 2 pick at Caesars. Perhaps he's the Texans' quarterback of the future.
Bet To Make? Based on the results of this week's expert mocks, the NFL world is still unconvinced Levis is going to be the second overall pick. His over/under at DraftKings is 6.5, with heavy juice on the over. Will Anderson is FanDuel’s favorite to go No. 2 overall at +210, but Stroud and Levis aren’t far behind at +250.
2) The top defensive player market is sneakily heating up. Our Nick Guarisco had Tyree Wilson going ahead of Anderson, and some are drinking that Kool Aid, as well.
Anderson was -400 or higher recently to be the first defensive player taken, but he’s down to -250 at FanDuel, where Wilson is +300. There have been some rumblings the Texans might even be higher on Wilson than Anderson.
Anderson has been considered the top defensive player for quite some time, though. He’s been slotted to go No. 3 to the Cardinals, assuming the first two picks are quarterbacks, by most mockers for a long time.
Bet To Make? The huge value on Wilson is gone. Anderson’s over/under at DraftKings has changed in a big way. It’s still 3.5, but it’s now priced -125 / -105. That under was as high as -275 in recent weeks.
You can still bet Wilson to be the No. 2 pick at +400 at FanDuel, and he’s 5-1 to go No. 3.
3) The mocks show value in the market of “First Cornerback Drafted” at FanDuel.
There is a clear top-three at cornerback, divided into two tiers. It’s Illinois’ Devon Witherspoon (-170) and Oregon’s Christian Gonzalez (+125) at the top, then Joey Porter Jr. (+2500) in his own second tier. While Witherspoon and Gonzalez are expected to be around the top-10 picks, Porter is looking like his range starts in the mid teens.
Bet To Make? Gonzalez has been mocked ahead of Witherspoon for most of mock season, but there was action last week on Witherspoon to be the first corner taken. In the graphic above, you'll see the mockers generally have Gonzalez slightly ahead of Witherspoon.
As I mentioned above, you can get Gonzalez to be the first corner taken in what appears to be a toss-up at +125 at FanDuel and +130 at DraftKings.
Pick: Christian Gonzalez — First CB Drafted (+125) |
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