Welcome to my 2023 NFL Win Total Calculator, which I used to make my NFL picks for 2023 season win totals. This sheet, which you can download here, will be updated throughout training camp whenever news breaks or something changes that will affect my projections.
Betting on NFL win totals is a great way to invest in or against a team’s upcoming season. There are many factors that I look into when deciding on taking a side for each team’s win total. The main data point I use to decide is the percent chance a team will go over or under any given number based on my season-long simulator that’s based on my team ratings.
I use many metrics when coming up with my team ratings, but they factor in the team’s current roster, any potential injuries/suspensions that would impact their given odds on any given week, and also the coaching staff. I also attempt to dig into other metrics that indicate which teams were lucky/unlucky last season, which could result in the market being too high/low on a given team. Some of the metrics you will see me refer to include:
One-score record: A team’s record in one-score games. The idea here is that we can assume teams should finish right around a 50/50 record in one-score games. If a team ends up going a few games above/below .500 in one-score games, it usually causes the market to overestimate or underestimate that team based on their one-score luck. My logic is to always assume that their luck will regress back toward average the following season.
Injury luck: By looking at Football Outsiders' Adjusted Games Lost metric, we can see which teams experienced the best to worst injury luck from a season ago. Injuries are unpredictable but can significantly impact a team’s end-of-season record. Therefore, I assume every team’s injury luck will regress back toward average the following season.
Pythagorean win totals: This calculation estimates a team’s record based on point differential. Teams that finish significantly higher or lower than their expected record could have done so based on luck, especially one-score record luck.
I try to factor in everything before locking in a bet. The final step before locking in a bet is to find the best odds available. Win total markets can be tricky because books could offer different numbers with different money lines. This is where my Win Total Calculator comes in handy. Since I’m projecting each team’s chances of finishing with exactly X number of wins, I’m able to calculate the odds for each win total. I have a few books already in my tool, but you can use the Calculator columns to enter in whatever win total, along with the over/under price you have access to get the % edge I’m showing based on my sims.
Last year, my win-total bets were 10-3 (+4.81 units), and that doesn't include a +200 pick on the 49ers to win the NFC West.
Every pick below is to win one unit unless otherwise specified. Speaking of those, let's get to it.
Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals have arguably the worst roster in the league and will be led by first-year head coach Jonathan Gannon, who hired first-year offensive coordinator Drew Petzing and first-year defensive coordinator Nick Rallis. To make matters worse, Kyler Murray is still coming back from ACL and meniscus tears, and there is still a ton of uncertainty as to if/when he'll return to action.
This will be a lost season for the Cardinals, and their goal will likely be looking to 2024 and beyond as they rebuild their roster. Arizona has the lowest win total (currently 4.5) for good reason.
However, I’m showing some slight value on their over 4.5 games. The market could be underrating the Cardinals slightly due to having the fourth-worst one-score game luck (2-6) and fourth-worst injury luck last season. Don’t get me wrong, this team will be awful this season, especially early on while Colt McCoy and Clayton Tune are filling in for Kyler Murray. Once Murray does return, though, it’ll give the Cardinals' power rating about a boost of about 2.5-3 points, depending on how mobile he will be after returning from such a significant knee injury.
When factoring in a potential Week 6-10 return for Murray (again, we can only guess if/when he will actually return), I think this team has a better chance of eking out five wins than their implied odds.
Instead of taking over 4.5 wins, which I’m only showing slight value on, I think the play here is in the Exact Wins market, in which the Cardinals are +450 to finish with four wins exactly and +500 to finish with five wins exactly. Arizona is a team that has a narrower range of outcomes because we all know it'll be one of the worst teams of 2023, and I’m showing a 42% chance they finish with either 4 or 5 wins. I think the play here is to put a half-unit play on each.
Verdict: Lean over 4.5 (+100, DraftKings)
Koerner's Bets
Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons defense ranked 30th in DVOA a year ago but should improve after adding safety Jessie Bates, DT David Onyemata, DE Calais Campbell, LB Kaden Elliss and CB Jeff Okudah. Atlanta also used the first two rounds of the draft to bolster its already run-heavy offense by drafting RB Bijan Robinson and OG Matthew Bergeron.
This is a team that isn’t going to be a Super Bowl contender with Desmond Ridder as its starting QB, but it'll be a contender in what should be a very weak NFC South this year. As a result of playing in the NFC South and facing the AFC South this season, the Falcons have the second-easiest schedule in the league.
Ridder is considered one of the worst starting QBs in the NFL heading into Week 1, but that’s already baked into Atlanta's futures markets. The Falcons are one of the few teams whose power rating against the spread may only take a slight hit, or not change at all, if their starting QB ever missed time. In fact, Taylor Heinicke could actually improve their power rating slightly if Ridder were to struggle and he replaced him. It’s a factor that gives the Falcons a higher floor than most teams.
It’s just one of many reasons why I’m showing value on the Falcons to go over 8.5 wins.
Verdict: Bet over 8.5 (-120, DraftKings)
Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens had one of the worst WR depth charts in the league last season but added Odell Beckham Jr., rookie Zay Flowers and Nelson Agholor to the mix. They also have arguably the best TE duo in the league in Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely. As a result, Lamar Jackson enters the 2023 season with the best supporting cast he’s played with in his entire NFL career.
The Ravens are a team with a balanced roster and elite coaching staff, led by head coach John Harbaugh. They have a high ceiling and could easily clear 10.5 if Jackson can stay healthy, but he has missed 11 games over the past two seasons. As a result, they are a team that has a wider range of outcomes and while I lean toward the under, I’m not locking in any of their futures, for now.
Verdict: Lean toward under 10.5 (-115, DraftKings)
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo was a Super Bowl contender last season that also benefited quite a bit from luck, rankings as the fifth-luckiest team based on the metrics I use to create my Luck Rankings. As a result, they won 13 regular-season wins, but some of the underlying stats suggest it’ll be tougher for them to repeat that win total again this year.
Buffalo went 7-3 in one-score games, had the eighth-luckiest win total based on their Pythagorean expected and has the 10th-biggest jump in terms of schedule difficulty this season, going from an average strength on schedule to the fifth-toughest schedule of 2023. The Bills also have the toughest schedule in the second half of the season (and it isn’t even close), take a look at the teams they play from Week 9 on (Super Bowl odds rank in parentheses): Bengals (5), Broncos (17), Jets (7), Eagles (2), Chiefs (1), Cowboys (6), Chargers (10), Patriots (21) and Dolphins (10).
While I do think Buffalo is capable of overcoming such a brutal stretch of opponents, it’s enough to give me pause investing in its over and is likely the reason I’m showing slight value on the under.
Verdict: Lean under 10.5 (+130, DraftKings)
Carolina Panthers
The Panthers are a very tricky team to project considering they have a new head coach and starters at quarterback, running back, wide receivers and tight end. It’s a team with little continuity from a season ago. Going from head coach Matt Ruhle to Frank Reich will put the team on a better path going forward, especially considering they may have finally found their franchise QB in first-overall-pick Bryce Young, something Carolina hasn't had since the end of the Cam Newton era in 2019.
Carolina should also benefit from a much easier schedule in 2023, having played the 12th toughest last season and having the third easiest this year.
I’m in line with the market with the Panthers' win total, though, so this is a pass for me.
Verdict: Pass. I'm in line with the market at 7.5 wins.
Chicago Bears
The Bears rank first in my season win total-specific Luck Rankings, so they are a team the public may be underestimating heading into the 2023 season.
Chicago was 1-7 in one-score games, their Pythagorean expected win total was 2 wins above their actual (highest in the league), and they have the second-biggest jump in terms of ease of schedule (fifth toughest in 2022 to ninth easiest schedule in 2023).
Chicago traded for D.J. Moore, which means this will be the first time Justin Fields has a legit No. 1 wide receiver to throw to. We have seen similar moves lead to year-three breakouts with Josh Allen (Bills brought in Stefon Diggs) and Jalen Hurts (Eagles brought in A.J. Brown). There's a chance Fields can have a similar big season with a much better-supporting cast.
The Bears also bolstered the offensive line by adding Nate Davis and rookie Darnell Wright, while also making a handful of moves on defense by signing LBs Tremaine Edmunds and TJ Edwards. Chicago also just signed Yannick Ngakoue, who should help a defensive line that generated the lowest pressure rate last season.
I’m not showing a ton of value on the over, but due to the Bears' bad luck last year and an easier schedule for the upcoming season, I’m interested in investing in a team that has made a handful of sharp offseason moves that should put them in the running for the NFC North crown.
Verdict: Bears Over 7.5 Wins (-122) |
Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals already saw their season flash before their eyes when Joe Burrow pulled up lame on a non-contact injury during practice at the start of training camp. Fortunately, it turned out to be a calf strain, which is something that will keep him out for just a few weeks, which means there's a good chance he’s ready for Week 1. It’s something we have to factor in when it comes to Bengals futures right now, specifically their win total.
The way I’m approaching it in my season simulation is by giving Burrow an 80% chance of suiting up for Week 1, when the Bengals would be 2.5-point favorites, and a 20% chance he will miss Week 1, making Trevor Siemian or Jake Browning the starting QB. In that scenario, the Bengals would be closer to 4-point underdogs. Based on those odds/scenarios above it comes out to a median of Bengals -1, which is where the current market is at.
However, DraftKings recently lowered their win total from 11.5 to 10.5, likely due to the concerns over Burrow, and I’m buying the dip. It’s giving too much exposure to an 11-win season, which is still Cincinnati's most likely outcome.
The Bengals are also showing some slight value in the Most Wins market at +750. That’s a market where the risk of Burrow missing games has less of an impact because you are investing in the Bengals' ceiling. I have Burrow missing Week 1 in 20% of my sims and I’m still showing them closer to +680 to finish the season with the most wins.
Verdict: Bet over 10.5 (-130, DraftKings)
Lean: Bengals Having Most Regular-Season Wins (+750, DraftKings)
Cleveland Browns
Deshaun Watson was expected to have a bit of rust after missing 28 straight games, but he was one of the worst QBs in the league last season, ranking 37th among 40 QBs with 130 or more pass attempts last year in Expected Points added per dropback (EPA/dropback). While I do expect Watson to return closer to his pre-2021 form, where he was one of the better QBs in the game, the Browns are a team with a wide range of outcomes based on which version of Watson we see this year.
I’m showing some slight value on under 9.5 wins, but the Browns stand to benefit if Burrow’s calf injury prevents him from facing them in Week 1. The Browns would go from 2.5-point underdogs to roughly 4-point favorites if Burrow was unable to play. That's just one more reason to pass on the Browns' win total — for now.
Verdict: Lean under 9.5 (-130, BetMGM)
Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys are coming off their second straight 12-win season, but they could be in line for some regression. Dallas went 5-3 in one-score games last season (10-5 over the past two seasons), played closer to an 11-win team according to their Pythagorean expected win total and has the seventh-biggest jump in schedule difficulty (had sixth-easiest schedule last year to 15th toughest this year).
Dallas also led the league with a 71% red-zone TD rate last year, a metric we should expect them to regress toward league average, especially following the Cowboys' decision to move on from offensive coordinator Kellen Moore and hand play-calling duties to head coach Mike McCarthy.
While Dallas might not quite be “America’s Team” anymore, I do think books are taking more action on their over 10.5 wins, which has helped inflate their total a bit and might be the main reason why I’m showing value on their under.
Verdict: Bet under 10.5 (-135, DraftKings)
Denver Broncos
The Broncos were one of the unluckiest teams last season, going 4-9 in one-score games, suffering the worst injury luck according to Adjusted Games Lost and allowing a ridiculous 39 of 41 (95%) field goals made. Russell Wilson is also coming off one of the worst years of his career, but there is some optimism that he will bounce back under Sean Payton.
This is a team that would normally scream “buy low” to me, but I’m actually showing quite a bit of value on under 8.5 wins. I think the main reason is that Denver has the third-biggest jump in schedule difficulty, going from the 10th-easiest schedule last season to the fifth-toughest in 2023.
Verdict: Bet under 8.5 (-110, DraftKings)
Detroit Lions
Last year, I thought my Lions over 6.5 wins ticket was toast after a 1-6 start. However, they managed to win eight of their final 10 games to finish 9-8. Now, There’s reason to believe the Lions will be able to build off last season and win double-digit games for the first time since 2014.
Detroit had the sixth-worst injury luck last year, went 4-5 in one-score games, and had the 16th-toughest schedule. Their strength of schedule will be much easier this year as it ranks as the sixth easiest. The Lions were also able to keep offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, who is one of the better offensive coordinators in the league, for at least one more season. There's a good chance we could see Johnson land a head coaching gig next off-season.
While I’m showing value on under 9.5, it’s mainly due to BetMGM offering it at +120 (most books have it at +100). I’m not interested in fading Detroit just a price is 20 cents better than other books, so this is just a lean.
Verdict: Lean under 9.5 (+120, BetMGM)
Green Bay Packers
The Aaron Rodgers era is officially over in Green Bay as they turn to controversial 2020 first-round pick Jordan Love. He'll be just the third different Week 1 starter for the Packers over the last 31 seasons.
Love himself is a bit of an unknown since we have only seen him start one game in his first two seasons. He will have one of the least experienced WR/TE rooms in the entire league, which could add to his growing pains. The Packers have every reason to start him for all 17 games, if healthy, considering they need to evaluate him for 2024 and beyond. (This makes him a sneaky bet to lead the league in interceptions at +1300.)
The Packers benefited from having the sixth-best injury luck last season. A potential change in fortune would test Green Bay's depth more in 2023, something this roster isn’t set up to handle well.
I’m showing some value on the Packers to finish with fewer than 7.5 wins, but not enough to lock in a bet.
Verdict: Lean under 7.5 (+100, FanDuel)
Houston Texans
The Texans rank seventh in my “buy low” rankings based on their 3-6 record in one-score games and the second-biggest difference in Pythagorean expected wins (4.9) and actual wins (three). Houston is also a team that could potentially go from a rebuilding one to a contender over the next couple of seasons after landing C.J. Stroud with the second overall pick. Stroud is an NFL-ready prospect who has pinpoint accuracy and should have a fairly smooth transition to the NFL.
The team will be led by new head coach DeMeco Ryans, who was the 49ers defensive coordinator and will attempt to turn lemons into lemonade with the Texans defense.
I’m showing some slight value on the Texans to go over 6.5 wins at +116 on FanDuel. However, BetMGM is offering the Texans at over 5.5 (-150), which I show more value on since it offers exposure to the two most likely outcomes for the Texans this year (six or seven wins).
Verdict: Bet over 5.5 (-150, BetMGM)
Indianapolis Colts
The Colts have struggled to find a long-term solution at QB since Andrew Luck’s sudden retirement before the 2019 season. However, they are hoping that fourth-overall pick Anthony Richardson can be that solution.
Richardson is very raw as a passer but also a freak athlete who will be able to lean on his legs to help ease his transition to the NFL. The presence of Gardner Minshew helps give the Colts with a safety net since the veteran will be able to provide league-average type play for the Colts until Richardson is ready to start or he needs to be benched due to struggles. That helps give them a higher floor for a team with just a 6.5 win total, but I’m in line with the market and will pass on taking a side here.
Verdict: Pass. I'm in line with the Colts' 6.5 win total.
Jacksonville Jaguars
It wasn’t too surprising to see Trevor Lawrence break out in year two and for the Jaguars to go from a three-win team to a nine-win team with a more competent coaching staff under Doug Pederson, following the Urban Meyer debacle. However, Jacksonville was very fortunate in terms of injury luck as they had the second-fewest adjusted games lost. After adding Calvin Ridley during his 2022 season-long suspension, the Jaguars offense could be even better in 2023.
I’m in line with their win total market, so this is a pass for me.
Verdict: Verdict: Pass. I'm in line with the Jaguars' 9.5 win total.
Kansas City Chiefs
There’s nothing left to say about the defending champs as they should remain the team to beat in 2023 with the nucleus of Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce still intact. The Chiefs rank second in my “sell high” rankings thanks to having the third-best injury luck, an 8-3 record in one-score games last season and the biggest jump in schedule difficulty this season, going from the third-easiest schedule to the fourth toughest.
While they are high on my “sell high” list and I’m showing some value on under 11.5 at +120, they're not a team I’m interested in fading. If they do end up having a sub-11 win season, it’ll help out some of the other futures I have.
Verdict: Lean under 11.5 (+120, DraftKings)
Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders are fourth in my “buy low” rankings because they were 4-9 in one-score games last season, and they had the second-biggest difference between Pythagorean expected wins (7.9) and actual wins (six).
However, Las Vegas has the second-biggest increase in schedule difficulty this season, as it goes from the ninth-easiest schedule to the third toughest.
Also, going from Derek Carr to Jimmy Garoppolo will be a lateral move.
This isn’t a team I’m too invested in investing in, but BetMGM is floating 5.5 wins, which is a full win lower than most books. I’m showing quite a bit of value on the over at that price.
Sometimes, investing in win totals isn’t just about backing the teams you like, but the numbers you like.
Verdict: Bet over 5.5 (-120, BetMGM)
Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers are a team that has a very high ceiling, but we have yet to see them put it all together for one season. New offensive coordinator Kellen Moore will hopefully tailor the offense around Justin Herbert’s skill set a bit better and have him throw the ball downfield more. The Chargers also dealt with injuries to Keenan Allen and Mike Williams that only allowed them to play for four full games together. Los Angeles added a first-round wide receiver in Quentin Johnston, which should upgrade its starting WR trio while also providing more depth in the event Allen or Williams misses time again.
The Chargers are still loaded on the defensive side of the ball with Joey Bosa, Khalil Mack and Derwin James. A year of improved health could lead the Chargers to a season closer to their ceiling. While I’m in line with their 9.5 win total, I think the best way to invest in them is to finish with the most wins at +3500 (DraftKings) since I’m projecting that number closer to +2200.
Verdict: Pass. I'm in line with the Chargers' 9.5 total.
Bet: Chargers Most Wins (+3500, DraftKings)
Los Angeles Rams
Verdict: Pass. I'm in line with the Rams' win total of 6.5.
Miami Dolphins
Verdict: Pass. I'm in line with the Dolphins' win total of 9.5.
Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings top my “sell high” rankings and were the luckiest team of the 2022 season according to our Action Network Luck Rankings. They finished with a 13-4 record with an unprecedented 11-0 record in one-score games. Minnesota was also fortunate in terms of injury luck as it had the fourth-fewest Adjusted Games Lost.
Despite playing in a weaker NFC North, the Vikings have the 11th-toughest schedule in the league thanks to brutal matchups against the Eagles, Chargers, Chiefs, 49ers and Bengals. This is absolutely a team I want to fade, and I’m showing enough value on under 8.5 wins at +115 to lock in a bet.
I also locked in the odds of the Vikings being the last winless team at 55-1, but those odds are down to 35-1, which I’m still showing some value since I’m projecting closer to 32-1. Minnesota has an easy matchup Week 1 against the Buccaneers, but if it happens to lose the opener, it has a brutal stretch at Eagles, vs. Chargers, at Panthers and vs. Chiefs. While they should beat both Tampa Bay and Carolina, the Vikings have three brutal matchups mixed in, so there's a chance they end up with an 0-5 start, making them contenders in this market.
Verdict: Bet under 8.5 (+115, BetMGM)
Lean toward the Last Winless Team at +3500 (DraftKings)
New England Patriots
I’ve bet on the Patriots to finish under their win total every season since the Tom Brady Era ended in 2020, and this year is no different.
The offense should be in much better hands under offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien after the Matt Patricia debacle we saw last year, but the roster is still pretty weak in what is a loaded AFC.
In fact, the Patriots have the toughest schedule in the league this season, opening with a brutal four-game stretch (vs. Eagles, vs. Dolphins, at Jets and at Cowboys). There's a real chance the Pats start the season 0-4 and Mac Jones ends up on the hot seat.
Not only am I taking the Patriots to finish under 7.5 wins at -115, but I’m also taking them to finish fourth in the AFC East at -120. I project them closer to -170 to finish last.
Verdict: Under 7.5 wins (-115, BetMGM) | Fourth-place in the AFC East (-120; DraftKings)
New Orleans Saints
The Saints, who were the unluckiest team in 2022 according to Action Network’s Luck Rankings, rank third in my “buy low” rankings.
One metric that stands out is the Saints had the ninth-highest time of possession with the lead in 2022. They played much better than their record indicates and now they have the easiest schedule in 2023. According to DraftKings, their only opponent with odds of -150 or better to finish with a winning record is the Jaguars.
Beyond having the easiest schedule, the Saints have a high floor because of their quarterback depth. I only have about a two-point drop-off from Derek Carr to Jameis Winston, so an injury to the position wouldn’t be that devastating.
I’m showing slight value on the Saints going over 9.5 wins.
Verdict: Lean over 9.5 (+115, BetMGM)
New York Giants
I cashed Giants over 6.5 wins last year, but they were fortunate to finish with nine wins.
The Giants went 8-4-1 in one-score games and actually had the fifth-highest time of possession while trailing last year. They were a “buy low” team last season, but I want to fade them this time around as I’m showing a ton of value on Under 7.5.
I’m even showing some value on them to finish with the worst record at +2000 (projecting it closer to +1700).
Verdict: Bet Under 7.5 wins (-114, FanDuel)
Lean: Fewest Wins (+2000, DraftKings)
Pick: Giants Under 7.5 (-114) |
New York Jets
The Jets are +3000 to have the most wins this season. I have that number as closer to +2170.
Verdict: Pass. I’m in line with the Jets’ 9.5 win total.
Lean toward Most Wins (+3000, DraftKings)
Philadelphia Eagles
Verdict: Pass. I'm in line with the 11.5 win total.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers are +8000 to be the last winless team in the NFL. I have that number as +4900.
Verdict: Pass. I’m in line with the Steelers’ 8.5 win total.
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers are one of the best-coached teams in the league under Kyle Shanahan and were able to go 8-1 with seventh-round rookie Brock Purdy filling in for the injured Jimmy Garoppolo last season. Purdy should be in line to start Week 1 and seems like a perfect fit for the Shanahan scheme.
However, injury luck always seems to be the downfall for the 49ers and last year was no different. They finished ninth in Adjusted Games Lost and even had their season end due to both Purdy and Josh Johnson getting injured in the NFC Championship game, leaving them no choice but to leave Purdy in the game, unable to physically throw the ball past the line of scrimmage.
What if the 49ers somehow finish in the top half of the league in terms of injury luck? I think I found the perfect market to capitalize on the 49ers' potential ceiling, and that’s to be the last undefeated team this season at +1300. They have the ninth-easiest schedule in the first half of the season and while it might not come into play, the fact that they have their bye in Week 9, which is earlier than most of the favorites in this market, gives them a sneaky edge. The Bengals have similar upside in this market thanks to an easy early season schedule and an early Week 7 bye, but Joe Burrow isn’t a lock for Week 1, which has a huge impact in this market.
I’m actually projecting the 49ers to be the most likely team to take down this market at +800.
Verdict: Lean toward over 10.5 wins (-140, BetMGM)
Bet: 49ers to be the Last Undefeated Team (+1300, 0.3 units, DraftKings)
Seattle Seahawks
Geno Smith was one of the biggest surprises of the 2022 season with the best season of his career in his ninth year at age 31, leading the Seahawks to a 9-8 record. Smith was rewarded with a three-year deal worth $105 million and while I do think he will continue to play at a high level since he has one of the better WR trios in the league entering the 2023 season, there's a decent chance that regression hits him hard in his encore season with Seattle.
Seattle isn’t a team I’m necessarily going out of my way to fade here, as I do seem to be fairly in line with its power rating just by looking at the first few spreads of the season. I am showing enough value on under 9.5 wins to lock it in at -155, though.
I’m also showing some value on the Seahawks being the last winless team at 100-1. I'm projecting it closer to 49-1. It’s one way to invest in the potential of Smith reverting back to him being the QB we saw for the first eight seasons of his career.
While the Seahawks do have a fairly easy start to the season with vs. Rams, at Lions, vs. Panthers and at Giants for the first four weeks, they do have a bye in Week 5. If Seattle does happen to start 0-4, it has to wait an extra week to see if it can win its first game. That gives the Seahawks a huge disadvantage in this market (or advantage if you back them at 100-1). Not to mention that Seattle has a road game against the Bengals once it does return from its Week 5 bye. It’s a sneaky way to fade the Seahawks.
Verdict: Under 9.5 wins (-155, DraftKings)
Bet: Seahawks to be Last Winless Team at (+10000, 0.1 unit, DraftKings)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay’s offensive line has slowly been deteriorating ever since Ali Marpet retired following their 2021 Super Bowl win. Tom Brady was able to take pressure off the O-line last year by getting rid of the ball after 2.45 seconds on average, which was by far the fastest time to throw in the league. Now, Donovan Smith and Shaq Mason are gone and the Bucs are sliding Tristan Wirfs over to left tackle. (He has met with a team psychologist due to facing high anxiety over the move.)
It’s a situation that could get ugly, especially with Baker Mayfield/Kyle Trask under center. I have faded the Patriots win total ever since Tom Brady left the team and I am going to apply that here with the Bucs.
Verdict: Under 6.5 wins (-135, BetMGM)
Tennessee Titans
Verdict: Pass. I'm in line with the Titans' 7.5 win total.
Washington Commanders
Verdict: Pass. I'm in line with the Commanders' 6.5 win total.
Koerner's Win Total Bets
- Cardinals Exactly 4 Wins (+450, FanDuel)
- Cardinals Exactly 5 Wins (+500, FanDuel)
- Falcons over 8.5 wins (-120, DraftKings)
- Bears over 7.5 wins (-122, FanDuel)
- Bengals over 10.5 wins (-130, DraftKings)
- Cowboys under 10.5 wins (-135, DraftKings)
- Broncos under 8.5 wins (-110, DraftKings)
- Texans over 5.5 wins (-150, BetMGM)
- Raiders over 5.5 wins (-120, BetMGM)
- Chargers Most Wins (+3500, DraftKings)
- Vikings under 8.5 wins (+115, BetMGM)
- Patriots under 7.5 wins (-115, BetMGM)
- Patriots to finish last place in AFC East (-120, DraftKings)
- Giants under 7.5 wins (-114, FanDuel)
- 49ers Last Undefeated Team (+1300, 0.3 units, DraftKings)
- Seahawks under 9.5 wins (-155, DraftKings)
- Seahawks Last Winless Team (+10000, 0.1 unit, DraftKings)
- Buccaneers under 6.5 wins (-135, BetMGM)
