No top team really impressed this week — except maybe the Cowboys. It stands to reason why Dallas was the team with the most upward trajectory after Sunday's slate of games. But overall, the market didn't move much during a week in which the two top Super Bowl favorites lost and another three finished with dicey victories.
Despite an embarrassing loss to the Broncos, the Chiefs remain Super Bowl favorites at +500, down from +450 a week ago. This is a Broncos defense that ranked a firm last place in expected points added per play (EPA/play) and defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) heading into Sunday's game. But that very defense held the Chiefs to no touchdowns and just nine points in a dominant defensive showing. Expected those advanced metrics to acknowledge improvements to this unit for next week's rankings.
Meanwhile, the 49ers fell to a revamped Bengals team, one in which quarterback Joe Burrow is finally mobile again. After a bye week, Burrow looked like a whole new QB relative to his early season self, when leaving the pocket was an absolute rarity, taking away a massive component of what makes him a world class signal caller.
The 49ers' Super Bowl odds fell as a result of their flat showing, in which Brock Purdy — despite leading the NFL in expected points added per play + completion percentage over expected (EPA/play + CPOE) — made several crucial mistakes during key second half drives that doomed the Niners. (As a side note, EPA/play + CPOE is the single most important advanced metric in grading quarterbacks and NFL MVP candidates.)
And three other sets of contenders finished with so-so wins. The Eagles needed a shaky second half comeback to defeat the Commanders on the road, the second time this season they've barely eked out a win against Washington. Philly's odds improved slightly from +600 to +550 week-over-week.
The Dolphins and Ravens dominated their respective games, too, but things got too close for comfort relative to expectations — namely, for Baltimore. The Ravens failed to cover their -10 point spread after a series of late game foibles, but still pulled through with a seven point win in the end.
The aforementioned Cowboys had perhaps the most coarse drubbing on the week, taking down a Rams team that had no shot throughout. It stands to reason that the league's No. 3 ranked defense according to EPA/play would clamp down after being embarrassed earlier this month vs. the 49ers.
