Action Network’s brightest NFL minds came together for a special Super BowlAnytime Touchdown scorer draft.
In an order randomly predetermined, each of our betting analysts made their favorite anytime touchdown player prop picks using FanDuel odds. These are not official bets by our experts, but they are an idea of where value might be found on the ATD board.
Here are our staff's picks for Super Bowl props for when the Chiefs face the Eagles.
Travis Kelce ATD (-125)
1) Chris Raybon: Kelce is simply a touchdown-scoring machine in the postseason.
He has been on the receiving end of at least one score in each of his last five postseason contests and 11 of his past 14, amassing 15 total touchdowns over that span. He led all Chiefs skill players with 12 touchdowns during the regular season and has tacked on three more in the two playoff games.
With multiple Chiefs wide receivers banged up and the team going up against an Eagles defense that features an elite cornerback duo in Darius Slay and James Bradberry, Kelce will be needed as the offensive focal point more than ever.
He should get plenty of chances to find the end zone for the sixth straight time in the postseason.
Pick: Travis Kelce Anytime TD |
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Jalen Hurts ATD (+105)
2) Brandon Anderson: I'm ecstatic to get Hurts second since he was first on my board by a mile. He's the only player I think is more likely than not to score.
Hurts is a rushing TD machine. He's run for one in seven of his last nine games (78%), averaging a rushing TD per game during that stretch. He had 15 rushing scores in 17 games this year, nearly one per game for the entire season, including at least one in 11-of-17 (65%).
Those numbers would imply something in the range of -200 to -300 for Hurts, and we're somehow getting plus odds against a very beatable run defense. The Super Bowl will be almost two months out from Hurts' shoulder injury so that shouldn't be an issue, and we already know the Eagles have a nearly unstoppable sneak play if they get inside the one. The Chiefs also rank 31st in red zone defense.
You never know what will happen, but Hurts rushing for a TD certainly seems like one of the most likely events. I'd rather play this than most other 50/50 bets with -110 odds.
Pick: Jalen Hurts Anytime TD |
Dallas Goedert ATD (+175)
3) Gilles Gallant: Over the last two seasons, Hurts has looked for Goedert early and often, as evidenced by the TE’s combined 83 first-down catches since the start of the 2021-22 season.
To put that in perspective, that’s more than his first three seasons combined (76). In 2022, he managed 40 first downs and 421 yards after the catch in only 12 games. Goedert's metrics were easily on pace to surpass WRs A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith had he played a full season.
The Chiefs offense may have the edge with Patrick Mahomes, but the defense could be the reason this game is over quickly. K.C.’s secondary has been getting burned for most of the season and playoffs, specifically to slot receivers and tight ends.
During the 2022 season, the Chiefs ranked 31st in touchdowns allowed to the slot (this includes WR, TE and RB when running routes over the middle).
Pick: Dallas Goedert Anytime TD |
Jody Fortson ATD (+850)
4) Stuckey: I'm going with a longer shot I think has value.
With all the uncertainty at wide receiver for the Chiefs due to injuries, you could see more of Fortson, especially in the red zone, where he makes his hay. With two weeks to prepare and all of the attention Travis Kelce will draw, K.C. can use that against the Eagles near the goal line and draw up something that could easily end up with Fortson ending up wide open in the end zone.
For his career, the Valdosta State product has scored a touchdown on 29% of his career receptions (4 on 14). Also, 38% of his targets have come inside the 10-yard line. He's averaging eight routes per game this season and saw 14 snaps at receiver in the AFC Championship Game with five in-line, five in the slot and four out wide.
Outside of the red zone, I call him Jo-D Fortson. Inside, it’s Jo-TD Fortson. (I promise I’ll take a lap for that one.) Go Joe.
Pick: Jody Fortson Anytime TD |
Kenneth Gainwell ATD (+330)
5) Nick Giffen: I chose Gainwell because he's easily the guy I had as the best value on the board relative to our consensus projections.
In facing the Chiefs, there's a real chance the Eagles are in a close — or even trailing — game script, which would make them rely on their passing game, and that's where Gainwell can shine. A full 35% of Gainwell's opportunities (targets and rushes) have come via the passing game, which far outpaces his backfield teammates Miles Sanders (9%) and Boston Scott (10%).
The Chiefs also present a great matchup. They rank 28th in defensive pass DVOA to running backs and have allowed the third-most targets and yards to the position.
Pick: Kenneth Gainwell Anytime TD |
Quez Watkins ATD (+800)
6) Sean Koerner: Watkins, who always has a wide range of outcomes, carries a ton of upside when it comes to catching long touchdown passes. All 3 of his TDs this year have been on targets 20-plus yards down field.
Given the possibility of a close or trailing game script, he has a chance of seeing 1-2 deep shots. That being said, I also give him a 25-30% chance of not catching a pass.
Based on his three TDs in 16 games, his fair price would be closer to +430. I’m projecting his fair value closer to +600, and I like the number we are getting at +750.
Pick: Quez Watkins Anytime TD |
Patrick Mahomes ATD (+460)
7) Sean Koerner: Mahomes was clearly limited by his ankle injury in the AFC Championship Game, but he was able to gut out a scramble to set up the game-winning touchdown.
I have to imagine with an extra week of rest he will be closer to 100% for the Super bowl. While I don’t think he will scramble as much, he will probably be more willing to in high-leverage situations, especially near the goal line. The Eagles may game plan as if Mahomes won’t be mobile and leave a running lane open, setting him up for a 5-10 yard rushing TD.
He’s scored a TD in 4-of-17 games, which would translate to a +325 price tag, so I like the potential value we are getting at current odds.
Pick: Patrick Mahomes Anytime TD |
DeVonta Smith ATD (+160)
8) Nick Giffen: At this point with Smith, A.J. Brown and Jerick McKinnon still available, I was definitely looking to grab someone with shorter odds than my first pick (Gainwell).
As a guy beholden to my projections, Smith is the player with the second-best remaining available value after teammate Zach Pascal (+1500). Smith's touchdown splits are the most pronounced of the Eagles' receiving corps, with five touchdowns against man defense compared to just one against zone. That's notable because the Chiefs play man defense at the eighth-highest rate.
He also primarily lines up on the right side, where the Chiefs are just 26th in defensive pass DVOA compared to sixth on passes to the left, where Brown lines up the most. Both are in a good situation and I'm splitting hairs between these two, so I'd rather have the guy with slightly longer odds.
Pick: DeVonta Smith Anytime TD |
Boston Scott ATD (+550)
9) Stuckey: Sometimes certain guys just get on a roll finding paydirt — Scott is in the midst of one of those streaks, having scored a touchdown in both of Philly's playoff games.
He's also scored in three straight, and four of five, including the regular season. Now, it did help that the Giant-killer got to face the G-Men three times over that five-game stretch, but I still think he'll have a few opportunities to cross the goal line here, with the most likely being on touches in power run formations in goal-to-go situations.
The other scenario isn't very likely, but he does serve as Philly's kick returner and has been quite good in that role. That means he has a few more opportunities to touch the ball (and I expect the Chiefs offense to have success) against a K.C. kick coverage unit that has struggled this season.
Plus, Scottsdale is only a half-hour away and who doesn't want to back a professional rocket league esports player to score a TD in the Super Bowl.
Pick: Boston Scott Anytime TD |
A.J. Brown ATD (+125)
10) Gilles Gallant: A.J. Brown? At 10th pick?
The fact I got Brown in this spot increases my confidence exponentially of at least hitting one of these Anytime Touchdown bets. Bettors may look at the most recent Eagles’ playoff games and cite how Brown hadn’t scored and only finished with seven catches in two games. Neither game vs. the Giants or 49ers was really competitive after the first half, so Philly didn’t need Brown to impose his will.
Brown has elevated the Eagles’ passing game to another level and has clearly earned QB Jalen Hurts trust as evidenced by the 16 red zone targets during the regular season. When he faced the Chiefs last season as a member of the Titans, he cooked K.C. for eight catches, 133 yards and a touchdown.
As I mentioned, the Chiefs are weaker in the slot and while Brown lines up exclusively on the outside for the Eagles, Kansas City still gave up 20 touchdowns to WR during the regular season. A
At the 10th pick, this is easily the steal of the draft.
Pick: A.J. Brown Anytime TD |
Eagles Defense ATD (+750)
11) Brandon Anderson: For whatever reason, defensive touchdowns have been abnormally common in the Super Bowl. There have been 21 defensive TDs in 57 games, which computes to a 37.5% chance in any random Super Bowl and at least one defensive score in 18 of those games (32.1%). We're talking about a one-in-three chance at a defensive TD.
But it gets even better.
Twenty of those 21 defensive touchdowns have been scored by the winning team. If you have a good feel for which team you like, you should absolutely bet that team's defensive TD odds.
I like Philadelphia, in part because I like the Eagles' No. 1 pressure rate getting to a beatable Chiefs line and forcing Mahomes into a mistake. Maybe one of those mistakes turns into six for the Eagles.
The odds of a defensive score are actually increasing. We've seen 15 defensive TDs in the last 30 Super Bowls. That's an average of one every two Super Bowls!
Maybe it's the fact that the league's best defenses are on display at the highest level. Perhaps it's the extra week of prep letting players cue in on opponent tendencies, or maybe it's just trailing teams going for broke with the season on the line. Whatever the reason, I'll take it.
DraftKings is offering +3000 (implied 3.2%) for any defensive player to score a TD and any defensive player to win MVP. Ten of 57 past MVPs (17.5) were defenders, and they almost all needed a score to post flashy enough numbers to win. Any defender who scores a TD is an MVP threat.
Zach Pascal ATD (+1500)
12) Chris Raybon: Pascal has started to factor into the Eagles' wide receiver rotation, running at least 10 routes in each of the past five games after doing so just six times across the first 14.
His 20 routes run in the two playoff games are just one fewer than Quez Watkins, who has seen his grip on the No. 3 wide receiver role loosen amid struggles as both a receiver and run blocker. Pascal hasn't exactly capitalized, managing to record a catch in only two of those five games, but that's why we're getting 15/1 odds.
Given Pascal's current usage trends, his large-sample data forecasts a median of one reception. The former Colt has scored a touchdown on 6.3% of his catches this season and 9.9% of receptions in his career, putting him squarely in "so-you’re-saying-there’s-a-chance" territory against a Chiefs defense that allowed 20 touchdowns to wide receivers during the regular season (second most).
It’s not a massive edge, but Pascal is rare value in a market that typically overprices every single player, every single week.
Pick: Zach Pascal Anytime TD |
