The Bills have become perennial contenders in the AFC in recent years, but they've been unable to break through (specifically against the Bengals and Chiefs) and will enter 2024 with a different look.
Salary-cap issues left Buffalo having to release some key players in the offseason, while its top receiver was traded. Even more will be on Josh Allen's plate this season as the Bills hope to finally win the AFC.
Here everything you need to know about the Buffalo Bills entering 2024.
2024 Bills Odds
Odds via FanDuel and as of Aug. 11.
| Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Super Bowl | +1500 |
| AFC Champion | +750 |
| AFC East | +165 |
| Make/Miss Playoffs | -176 / +140 |
| Win Total | 10.5 (+122 / -150) |
2023 Bills Betting Records
- 8-11 against the spread (-20.1% ROI)
- 8-11 to the over (-19.8% ROI)
Past Bills Win Totals
| Season | Win Total | No. of Wins |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 11.5 | 11 |
| 2022 | 12 | 13 |
| 2023 | 10.5 | 11 |
Important Bills Betting Stats
Allen is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, but he's been pretty neutral for bettors.
Allen is 52-46-5 against the spread in his career, according to Action Network’s Evan Abrams. Mitchell Trubisky, the backup in Buffalo, has been a popular fade throughout his career and has an NFL ATS mark of 27-29-3.
Head coach Sean McDermott has a similar record to Allen at 63-56-6 against the spread, which comes out to almost no profit or loss.
Bills Roster Has Been Overhauled
The Bills are heading into a season of change. After falling to the Chiefs in the playoffs (again), Buffalo will look very different on both sides of the ball this season.
With the departure of its top two receivers — Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis — Buffalo's offense is set to take a fresh approach this year with Allen under center.
Safety Jordan Poyer and cornerback Tre’Davious White were released, while safety Micah Hyde is a free agent. Buffalo ran into salary-cap issues because of edge rusher Von Miller’s contract and adjusted in a noteworthy way.
Offensively, we’re expected to see a heavier reliance on the run in offensive coordinator Joe Brady’s first full season on the job. Without either Diggs or Davis, expect to see a lot of running back James Cook.
However, the Bills are far from depleted. Khalil Shakir is the Bills’ most prominent returning wide receiver, and much will be expected of tight end Dalton Kincaid. Shakir emerged late last season and was strong during the playoffs, as well.
Veteran slot receiver Curtis Samuel was signed, as was veteran speedster Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who could be asked to replace Davis as the Bills’ go-to target down the field.
Also added was second-round rookie Keon Coleman, who's earmarked for a big role in his debut season.
The playmaker on offense who’s going to benefit the most from the offseason moves appears to be Kincaid, whose role grew throughout the season and emerged as a key target for Allen late in the season.
He could be poised for a prominent role, one potentially reminiscent of Travis Kelce’s with the Chiefs.
How To Back the Bills This Season
While preseason expectations for the Bills might be lower than usual because of the large turnover on both sides of the ball, Buffalo is still expected to make the postseason. The Bills are -175 to make the playoffs, having done so in each of the last five seasons.
They've also advanced to the Divisional Round in each of the last four seasons.
As long as Allen is under center, the Bills will have a say in who wins the AFC.
Kincaid is the key man for Buffalo entering this season, though. George Kittle broke out in his second season, and there's some thought that Kincaid could have a similar coming out party as a sophomore pro.
Expectations are high for Kincaid to emerge as the Bills’ best offensive playmaker in 2024.
2024 Bills Schedule Info
According to Action Network’s Sean Koerner, the Bills will face the seventh-hardest schedule in the NFL this season.
Unsurprisingly, the Patriots rank No. 1, which emphasizes the quality of the AFC East. The Bills, Jets and Dolphins all have Super Bowl aspirations this season — as long as they can stay healthy.
Buffalo's Week 1 Odds & Matchup
The Bills, as of Monday, Aug. 5, are the second-largest Week 1 favorites in the NFL. Buffalo is laying seven points to the Cardinals with a -330 moneyline. The game total is 48.5, which is tied for the third-largest of the opening week.
Arizona will have quarterback Kyler Murray back healthy to start a season after returning late in the 2023 campaign from a torn ACL. First-round receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. highlights a Cardinals offense that has the athleticism to potentially light up the scoreboard in any game.
