It's no longer Super Bowl or bust in New England for the Patriots. Instead, Bill Belichick is gone and the Pats hope their latest first-round pick — Drake Maye — is the answer under center.
New England has a rookie head coach in Jerod Mayo and veteran backup Jacoby Brissett looks set to start the season at quarterback while they take it easy on the third overall pick who's the future at the position. In a division against three teams with Super Bowl aspirations, wins will be hard to come by this year.
Here everything you need to know about the New England Patriots entering 2024.
2024 Patriots Odds
Odds via FanDuel and as of Aug. 11.
| Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Super Bowl | +25000 |
| AFC Champion | +10000 |
| AFC East | +2500 |
| Make/Miss Playoffs | +920 / -2000 |
| Win Total | 4.5 (-150 / +122) |
2023 Patriots Betting Records
- 5-11-1 against the spread (-37.8% ROI)
- 7-10 to the over (-21.1% ROI)
Past Patriots Win Totals
| Season | Win Total | No. of Wins |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 9.5 | 10 |
| 2022 | 8.5 | 8 |
| 2023 | 7.5 | 4 |
Important Patriots Betting Stats
Jacoby Brissett has been pretty neutral for bettors throughout his NFL career. The veteran has a 24-21-3 record against the spread.
For those who love MACtion, Bailey Zappe has continued to be a betting favorite in the NFL. In his eight career starts, Zappe is 5-2-1 against the spread.
The other two QBs on the Pats roster are rookies, just like head coach Jerrod Mayo, who enters this season with a clean slate for bettors.
Patriots Will Protect Prized QB Maye
The New England Patriots are a team under reconstruction and face another challenging season.
With questions surrounding the quarterback position (among other things), it’s tough to see the Patriots thriving this season. Jacoby Brissett looks like he’s the starting quarterback early in training camp, but Drake Maye wasn’t picked third overall to sit on the bench.
Bill Belichick is gone, and one of his former players has replaced him. Jerod Mayo is a rookie head coach who’s going through training camp without an official general manager. Eliot Wolf is the executive vice president of player personnel and the de facto decision maker in New England, though.
Obviously, things didn’t go well in Belichick’s farewell season if New England picked third overall in the draft. Maye has landed in a challenging situation that has a shaky offensive line and arguably one of the worst groups of wide receivers in the NFL.
This is not the kind of situation that Caleb Williams fell into in Chicago, where he has proven playmakers surrounding him. Don’t expect big numbers from Maye or team success in his rookie season.
That leaves Brissett, who has played well enough throughout his career to earn a reputation as one of the best backup quarterbacks in the NFL. Expect him to start most of the season while the Patriots keep Maye away from what would be a brutal rookie season as he develops.
It does seem unlikely that we don’t see any of Maye this season. He has earned comparisons to Justin Herbert and has an electric arm.
Alex Van Pelt was the Browns' offensive coordinator in 2022, when Brissett started 11 games for Cleveland and filled in well during Deshaun Watson’s suspension. The two are reunited, which New England will hope leads to a better season than 2024.
Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson will lead the backfield and likely power a run-heavy approach this season for New England in an effort to take pressure off Brissett and inevitably Maye.
With that, it makes more sense to lean on the experienced Brissett. He has experience as a game manager, as he did (stop me if you’ve heard this before) back in 2022 with the Browns in Van Pelt’s offense.
New England Patriots Betting Outlook
New England’s outlook throughout the season is murky because of the quarterback situation. On paper, the offense looks set to underwhelm. Brissett and Maye won’t be enough to lead the Patriots back to the playoffs.
Maye, though, presents much more upside than Brissett. If he ends up playing the majority of the season, the Patriots’ ceiling grows higher. Brissett would simply be there to get the Patriots through the season.
We’ll learn more about how ready Maye is during the preseason. If he plays well, calls for the rookie will grow louder, especially if the team – and Brissett – struggle early in the season.
2024 Patriots Schedule Info
According to Action Network’s Sean Koerner, the Patriots will face the hardest schedule in the NFL this season.
The primary reason for this: the division. The other three teams in the AFC East all have realistic hopes of winning the division, and two are coming off playoff appearances. The Jets even won seven games last season while starting Zach Wilson for most of it.
New England's Week 1 Odds & Matchup
The Patriots will be the biggest underdog in the NFL in Week 1.
The Bengals are laying nine points in Week 1 against the Pats, whose moneyline is +350 to pull off a huge upset to open the season. The game total is 42.5, which is tied for the fourth lowest of the week.
