The 2024 NFL season is here and rosters are being chopped down to 53 players around the league. But sometimes we forget about the men and women who don't count toward that total: the coaching staff.
Coaching has a far bigger impact in the NFL than you'd think — perhaps the biggest of any major American sport.
Head coaches make huge in-game decisions managing the clock, calling timeouts, challenging plays, and deciding when to go for it on fourth down, then spend all week explaining away the decisions that went awry. They also hire and manage a deep team of assistants who play key roles.
Behind any good modern offense is a great offensive coordinator (OC), and an elite defensive coordinator (DC) maximizes talent with the perfect scheme. Units like special teams (ST) and offensive lines (OL) have their own coaches, too, capable of turning average talent into great hidden edges.
That's why we're ranking entire coaching staffs, not just head coaches.
A few quick notes on methodology before we jump in:
- Offense matters more than defense. Good (and bad!) offense is stickier from one year to the next, and offense just has a bigger impact. That means offensive coaching is weighted heavier, too.
- Passing is more valuable than rushing in the modern NFL. In-game coaching aggression is important. Those things matter on the field, and they're weighted accordingly. Coaches set the tone.
- The OC and DC rankings are meant to encapsulate the full-staff impact on offensive and defensive play calling, not rank one specific coach. The HC ranking focuses more on things outside of play calling: leading a staff, managing a game, even acting as franchise CEO in many ways.
- Where names stand out, top assistants are noted as major difference makers. Outstanding offensive line and special teams coaches are especially important and factored into the rankings.
So, before we kick off the new season, let's study the coaching landscape and rank all 32 NFL staffs as units.
This is one of the best-hidden edges for both NFL teams and analysts alike, so it has major implications for us as bettors — from live betting to spreads to futures. What can we learn by studying the folks on the sidelines?
2024 NFL Coach Rankings
| Tier Number | Category |
|---|---|
| Tier 1 | The Gold Standard |
| Tier 2 | New Faces in New Places |
| Tier 3 | The AFC Bloodbath |
| Tier 4 | Objectively Good Staffs |
| Tier 5 | The Old Guard |
| Tier 6 | We're Really Still Doing This?! |
| Tier 7 | Serious Turnaround Potential |
| Tier 8 | Dead Man Walking |
| Tier 9 | Guilty Until Proven Innocent |
| Betting Takeaways |
Tier 1 — The Gold Standard
1. Chiefs
Head coach: 2 | Offensive coordinator: 5 | Defensive coordinator: 2 | Last year: 1
Remember Eric Bieniemy? Chiefs fans sure don't.
A year ago heading into the new season, there were questions about how Kansas City's offense would do without its longtime OC. A sixth consecutive AFC Championship Game and another ring later, it turns out that Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid did just fine.
But it's not just Reid, and that's exactly the point. Dave Toub is one of the league's best at special teams, and Andy Heck is excellent with the offensive line, giving the Chiefs two secret weapons. DC Steve Spagnuolo is no longer a secret weapon after the way this defense played last season, and he somehow always has them peaking right as they hit January for the biggest games of the year.
Kansas City is the gold standard, and it matters that these talented assistants stick around year after year, too. Everyone else is looking up, and the gap has only gotten wider.
Tier 2 — New Faces In New Places
2. Ravens
HC: 1 | OC: 7 | DC: 22 | Last year: 4
Yes, John Harbaugh is my No. 1 head coach, and he's why the Ravens rank this high.
Harbaugh is terrific with analytics and in-game decision-making, and he has a great history of hiring and developing coordinators and staying current with the times, even when it means changing something that's worked for a long time. Harbaugh also helps his team have outstanding special teams season after season, a constant hidden edge better than anyone else in the league. The Ravens have ranked in the top four in special teams DVOA three straight years, and credit to Chris Horton (ST), too.
Two years ago, Harbaugh debuted DC Mike Macdonald. That took half a season to set in but exploded last year to the point that there's been a tremendous brain drain on this defense — not just Macdonald but also Anthony Weaver and Dennard Robinson from his staff, all taking promotions elsewhere.
Last year, Harbaugh brought Todd Monken in to run the offense. Monken's offense was up and down and went missing in the biggest game of the season but also coaxed an MVP season out of Lamar Jackson.
This season, it's new DC Zach Orr, who helped Roquan Smith and Patrick Queen blossom the last couple of years as a linebackers coach on this unit. That likely means plenty of continuity in how this defense attacks, but there are real question marks about both coordinators here that make the Ravens coaching staff a bit more unreliable than usual.
That, unfortunately, is the cost of success.
3. 49ers
HC: 4 | OC: 1 | DC: 21 | Last year: 5
San Francisco was just as successful as Baltimore last season and is facing a similar brain drain.
There are a few questions about Kyle Shanahan at the top. No matter how many names exit the offensive coaching staff — even guys like Mike McDaniel and Bobby Slowik who go on to have immense success elsewhere — the 49ers offense keeps on whirring under Shanahan. The run game thrives and Brock Purdy turns into an MVP candidate. Shanahan leaves something to be desired as a game manager, but the offense does its job.
But just like with Baltimore, there's a brain drain in defense — and this time it was intentional. Steve Wilks was not the man for the job, with a defense that was too predictable, so now Nick Sorensen gets a chance. It's his first time calling defensive plays but Sorensen worked closely with DeMeco Ryans and values aggression and adaptability, and Shanahan thinks he's ready. He'll get a helping hand from Kris Kocurek, the best defensive line coach in the league, and maybe from Brandon Staley who should help Sorensen transition into the new role.
4. Eagles
HC: 10 | OC: 8 | DC: 3 | Last year: 7
This is a bit higher than most would rank Nick Sirianni or the Eagles staff, but I still believe.
Sirianni struggled down the stretch and never seemed to find a rhythm after losing both coordinators last season but still sits at 34-17 through three seasons, and he makes great mid-game and mid-season adjustments and adds serious value with his in-game aggression. Don't believe me? Just consider how valuable Sirianni's Tush Push is, so much so that the league had to consider outlawing it altogether.
For a second straight season, the Eagles will feature a pair of new coordinators — but this time it's names everyone knows. OC Kellen Moore was elite season after season in Dallas, though his offense represents a significant change and could take some time for Jalen Hurts to adapt. DC Vic Fangio is a legend, but does he have anything left, or has the modern NFL passed him by?
Philadelphia is banking on history with these two new coordinators, but both represent significant departures from what the Eagles have done so well. That could mean a steep learning curve early in the season, but the fresh blood on the staff could also turn the Eagles into this year's Ravens if everything clicks.
Jeff Stoutland (OL) and Michael Clay (ST) are two names that haven't changed, both among the best assistants in the league.
5. Rams
HC: 3 | OC: 3 | DC: 28 | Last year: 3
Copy and paste the Ravens or 49ers notes. Sean McVay is outstanding and virtually guarantees a great modern offense even as names continue to depart. Though, like Shanahan, his in-game decisions and conservative nature leave something to be desired. McVay also appears to consistently ignore special teams entirely, a constant hidden weak spot on his teams.
And much like with the Ravens and 49ers, McVay had to replace a departed defensive coordinator with Chris Shula. Yes, he's from that Shula family tree, but he's only called one season of plays at Division III John Carroll a decade ago, so this is a real unknown. McVay also brought in Sean Desai from the Eagles as a senior assistant, and his mad scientist analytics nature tends to cede the run entirely and focus on taking away the pass.
Shula played college ball with McVay years ago, and he's been with the Rams a long time. But with Aaron Donald also gone, could this mean a serious step back from LA's defense?
Tier 3 — The AFC Bloodbath
6. Chargers
HC: 5 | OC: 18 | DC: 13 | Last year: 10
The league's top two coaching staffs met in last season's AFC Championship Game, but the entire back half of the top 10 resides in the AFC, too. It's an absolute bloodbath out there with so many great coaching staffs.
That starts with the NFL return of Jim Harbaugh.
Love him or hate him, Jim Harbaugh has been a winner at every level as a coach. He won big at Stanford, won bigger with the 49ers and then won it all with Michigan. He took the Cardinal to 12-1, helped the Wolverines go 37-3 the last three years, and made the NFC Championship Game in three of four years with San Francisco. Harbaugh skews run-heavy and conservative, but his teams win.
OC Greg Roman fits the mold. His presence all but guarantees the Chargers will be extremely run-heavy and likely very successful in their endeavors. In 10 years as an OC, Roman's teams ranked top 10 in rushing attempts every time and top five in yards per carry eight of 10, though they also ranked bottom five in passing attempts all but once and 19th or worse in yards per attempt more than half the time, too. All of that adds up to a reliable floor — top 15 in yards in nine of 10 seasons — but not the highest ceiling, top nine in yards just twice.
It may take some time, but we know what we'll get from the Chargers offense soon enough. The special teams should also be great, with Ryan Ficken leading this unit out of the wilderness to the top six for two straight seasons.
The upside on this team may come from its defense, though. Harbaugh brought Michigan DC Jesse Minter to keep the same role, a defensive backs specialist who leads an aggressive, attacking defense much like Mike Macdonald. He's the sort of guy who could be the next big thing.
This new Chargers staff is absolutely loaded. It may not take immediately, but with Harbaugh, it's typically just a matter of when and not if.
7. Browns
HC: 14 | OC: 13 | DC: 1 | Last year: 24
Kevin Stefanski broke the mold with a second Coach of the Year win with the Browns after dragging Joe Flacco off the couch, into an offense missing its stud RB and most of its offensive line, and all the way to the playoffs, but wasn't that really an award for Jim Schwartz? He gets the top DC spot this season after his incredible work with Myles Garrett and an outstanding Browns defense that electrified teams much of last season.
Now there's another new name on board in Ken Dorsey, a serious upgrade over Alex Van Pelt — if Stefanski ever lets him call the plays. Dorsey skews much pass-heavier and has been far more efficient than Stefanski's typically conservative, run-heavy offense, and he usually runs an offense similar to the one Deshaun Watson ran in Houston the last time he was successful. Stefanski also brought in Tommy Rees and Duce Staley to freshen up the offense.
Bill Callahan (OL) is a serious loss, but if all those names can add some creativity and upside opposite Schwartz's defense, Cleveland could be even better than last year.
8. Bills
HC: 8 | OC: 12 | DC: 8 | Last year: 9
This is quite simply a vote of confidence in Sean McDermott, who for all his foibles has still won 10 or more games in five straight seasons and sits at a 10.9-win pace lifetime in the NFL. McDermott effectively calls the defense and did miracles with that unit last season with all the injuries, and his teams are also typically near the top of the league in special teams.
I have my questions about McDermott's leadership style, and he's going to run out of scapegoats at some point, but the offense seems to have found a new power focus under OC Joe Brady and the Bills just keep on winning.
9. Steelers
HC: 9 | OC: 17 | DC: 5 | Last year: 12
The Steelers keep winning, too — at least half their games.
Mike Tomlin somehow still has never finished below .500 in 17 seasons, and he and DC Teryl Austin get the best out of this defense year after year. But Tomlin makes wonky in-game decisions and skews far too conservative, and his teams tend to overachieve as underdogs but underperform as favorites.
And while Tomlin gets credit for so many good things, he's also responsible for the coordinators he hires and sticks with for far too long. Now he turns over the offense to OC Arthur Smith, who was a disaster as the Falcons head coach but whose offense had a crazy high floor in Tennessee.
Smith loves to attack the middle of the field, something neither Russell Wilson nor Justin Fields is particularly adept at, but he also loves to run the football. His teams have finished top four in rushing yards and yards per carry in three of five seasons as an OC but also bottom three in passing attempts all those years, and his Atlanta teams mirrored those trends.
In other words, Smith might be the perfect hire for Tomlin and the Steelers, for better and for worse — all floor, no ceiling.
10. Dolphins
HC: 12 | OC: 3 | DC: 23 | Last year: 6
When things are whirring, there's little questioning Mike McDaniel. His offense broke the NFL with speed in his debut as a head coach, and then he adjusted with added motion and did it all again in year two. But McDaniel hasn't had adjustments or a backup plan once opponents adjust late in the season, and his offenses have struggled in bad weather and against top opponents.
McDaniel also replaced Vic Fangio after one up-and-down year, opting for new DC Anthony Weaver from Baltimore. He's been a hot name for a while but that's a big schematic change, and it's probably time to see if all of McDaniel's tinkering can add up to wins when the games matter most in December and January.
Tier 4 — Objectively Good Staffs
11. Lions
HC: 13 | OC: 2 | DC: 29 | Last year: 19
I suspect most would rank Dan Campbell as a top 10 head coach, and they'd definitely put the Lions' staff top 10 now that OC Ben Johnson inexplicably stuck around for another season. Johnson has been incredible in leading Detroit's offense, and his ranking alone would have this staff in the top five.
Campbell is certainly a quirky, likable leader and has his team fully bought into his brash style and identity, and his aggression has given Detroit a clear edge. As the CEO of this team, maybe that's enough. I still need to see if there's more to Dan Campbell than just Ben Johnson, in particular, because this Lions defense just continues to massively disappoint under DC Aaron Glenn.
Glenn is getting head coaching looks and players love him, but where are the results? Detroit's pass defense ranks bottom four in yards per attempt all three seasons with the team, and the overall defense ranks bottom 10 in yards and points each season. If Campbell and Glenn can't find some answers on defense, the Lions may be good enough to make another deep run but not enough to win that elusive ring.
12. Packers
HC: 7 | OC: 6 | DC: 24 | Last year: 27
Matt LaFleur won 13 games each of his first three seasons, but it took last year to really win me over. LaFleur helped Jordan Love and his young receivers explode in plain sight, with Love growing from a struggling QB in September to one of a bonafide MVP contender by December. LaFleur also manages the game well and makes outstanding decisions that maximize his team's win probability.
But the most important decision LaFleur made this year was finally replacing DC Joe Barry, who I thought was the worst coordinator in the league. Jeff Hafley left a head coach position at Boston College for this, a wild transition, and he has a strong history of versatile, press-style defenses and helped Ohio State improve from No. 72 to No. 1 yards per play his first season with the defense. Assistants Derrick Ainsley and Anthony Campanile are also new blood.
This is a Packers defense that has long added up to much less than the sum of its parts, but that means plenty of low-hanging fruit for Hafley's unit. If they make a similar leap as LaFleur's offense did last season, Green Bay could be a legit Super Bowl contender.
13. Seahawks
HC: 16 | OC: 11 | DC: 12 | Last year: 13
With Pete Carroll gone, the Seahawks have gone in an entirely new direction, and they'll debut a very exciting new coaching staff.
I thought Mike Macdonald was the most intriguing head coach on the market after what he did at Michigan and Baltimore the last few years. He's the guy everyone wanted and, reportedly, seems to be a guy both players and coaches love working with.
He'll work with new DC Aden Durde, the first-ever British NFL coordinator, who did wonders developing Dallas defensive linemen and also had a hand in developing international talents like Eagles stud LT Jordan Mailata. Durde is a name to watch.
So is new OC Ryan Grubb, an unknown at the professional level who absolutely lit things up in college at every stop. Most recently that meant an explosive offense that took Washington to the College Football Playoff and got Michael Penix and three star receivers drafted, and that offense might be the perfect fit for Geno Smith's drop-in-the-bucket deep ball to this elite trio of Seahawks receivers.
Even new ST coach Jay Harbaugh — yes, that Harbaugh — is an exciting new name.
This is an unproven staff but one with massive upside. Seattle isn't exactly replacing a bad staff since Carroll and OC Shane Waldron were terrific, but this staff has top-five potential if everything hits.
14. Colts
HC: 11 | OC: 9 | DC: 18 | Last year: 20
Shane Steichen quietly did an excellent job with the Colts in his debut season. Despite losing his starting quarterback most of the season and a distinct lack of talent on either side of the ball, Steichen got the most out of his team that went 9-8 and had a shot to win the division its final game. Steichen makes great in-game decisions and that aggression will pay off with more talent, and it's no coincidence the Eagles offense fell off so hard once Steichen left last season either.
One of Steichen's biggest moves last year was working with Tony Sparano (OL) to maximize this Colts offensive line, a unit that had slipped to below average but immediately bounced back into the top five without even changing personnel. That's all scheme and coaching. I don't love the coordinators, OC Jim Bob Cooter and DC Gus Bradley, for this team, but I'm in on Steichen.
15. Texans
HC: 15 | OC: 19 | DC: 11 | Last year: 22
You're probably a bit surprised to see the Texans around league average, especially after keeping OC Bobby Slowik, and especially after we profited so much riding Texans Island all last season.
Slowik unquestionably raised this offense's floor and made this work with a banged-up, makeshift offensive line and a rookie quarterback. But he also called plays far too conservatively and was way overcommitted to a run game that never worked all season, so what propped up C.J. Stroud early held him back late. Will Slowik adjust the offense now that Stroud has proven himself and has three great receiving targets?
As for DeMeco Ryans, he lost Coach of the Year by a single vote, but he also was over-conservative in his leading, and his defense was certainly great against the run, much like it was in San Francisco, but the pass defense has been ripe for the picking.
There's plenty to like here — we haven't even mentioned Frank Ross (ST) or Jerrod Johnson (QBs) — but last year was about raising the floor from an outdated era. Now Ryans and Slowik need to show they can take the Texans from good to great, too.
16. Vikings
HC: 17 | OC: 14 | DC: 7 | Last year: 21
If the Vikings are really a league-average coaching staff, you know the NFL is in pretty good hands. Kevin O'Connell has been outstanding through two seasons and kept this offense together with sticky tack and duct tape on his backup quarterback last season, and DC Brian Flores did miracles turning this defensive personnel into an elite, aggressive machine — at least for part of the season.
That defense cratered late once the lack of talent caught up, though, and McConnell's offense has finished closer to league average than the top. This isn't a knock on Minnesota's coaching staff — there are just a lot of other great staffs out there.
Tier 5 — The Old Guard
17. Cowboys
HC: 23 | OC: 20 | DC: 4 | Last year: 14
Most fans complain when their team is too low in the rankings, but I wonder if Cowboys fans will complain they're too high.
Look, I didn't expect Mike McCarthy to still be around either after another postseason failure, but the man has won 12 games three straight seasons, and he and OC Brian Schottenheimer really unlocked this offense last October when they started moving CeeDee Lamb around the formation and helped Dak Prescott make a serious MVP push. McCarthy remains a disastrous in-game decision-maker and sure feels like lame-duck status when it comes to winning the big one, but it's hard to argue with 11 double-digit-win seasons.
The other reason the Cowboys rank this "high" even after losing elite DC Dan Quinn is that Mike Zimmer might be just as strong a replacement. Zimmer is old and will be a stark change from Quinn's aggressive, turnover-happy defense, but Zimmer's schemes have consistently worked over the years. Add in John Fassel (ST) and you have to respect what this staff brings to the table — even if Jerry Jones is liable to fire them all on any given Sunday.
18. Jaguars
HC: 6 | OC: 29 | DC: 19 | Last year: 15
Doug Pederson has gone .500 or better in five of six years as a head coach, and his offenses have been average or better all but one season. His situational strategy is great, but can he make up his mind about calling plays already?
OC Press Taylor called plays early last season to disastrous results with bad receiver trees and an overcommitted run game, and by the time Pederson took the reins back, it was too late. Now Taylor is reporting calling plays again, and that knocked the Jaguars down a few pegs for uncertainty.
New DC Ryan Nielsen could be an X-factor for a defense that had moments last year but still needs direction. He overachieved in Atlanta and has been great at developing pass rushers. Add in Heath Farwell (ST) and there's still plenty to like about this staff if Pederson can steer the ship in the right direction.
19. Bengals
HC: 20 | OC: 25 | DC: 16 | Last year: 17
I've never been a huge believer in this Bengals staff, still living mostly off a ton of talent and one great playoff run. Zac Taylor's offenses don't do anything particularly creative or utilize much motion to make things easier, so it's natural to wonder if that's just Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins doing everything. Taylor does skew super pass-heavy so that certainly helps when you've got those talents.
With the departure of OC Brian Callahan, I thought this was an opportunity for Taylor to bring in a fresh voice and add some juice to this offense. Instead, he promoted QBs coach Dan Pitcher to the position, and while Pitcher clearly did a great job getting Jake Browning ready last year when Burrow was hurt, that's a disappointing bet on relatively mediocre continuity as a staff.
DC Lou Anarumo makes brilliant second-half adjustments but might be a better one-game postseason weapon than his relatively average regular season results indicate, and his defense cratered last year. Darrin Simmons (ST) is less known but consistently great on special teams.
Again, there are a lot of good coaching staffs. But I'm not sure the Bengals can be great as constructed.
20. Falcons
HC: 21 | OC: 16 | DC: 17 | Last year: 18
It may be odd to place Atlanta in this old guard tier when the entire staff is new, but it remains to be seen whether Raheem Morris was an inspired hire or if he just had parlayed one hot Super Bowl run in Los Angeles with a load of talent into this pristine reputation. He'll bring his low box counts and pass-baiting along with DC Jimmy Lake over from the Rams.
Morris's Rams connection helped him bring debut OC Zac Robinson with him, and Robinson has been one of the intriguing young names to watch after his tutelage under Sean McVay. Will the efficient run game and heavy 11-personnel come with Robinson, or will we see more of the spread offense he played at Oklahoma State under Mike Gundy?
The Falcons have a ton of mostly untapped talent on offense, so if Robinson can find a way to make it all go, Atlanta can live up to its division-favorite expectations.
Tier 6 — We're Really Still Doing This?!
21. Broncos
HC: 18 | OC: 22 | DC: 30 | Last year: 16
Sean Payton gets one more benefit-of-the-doubt opportunity, but my belief is fading quickly. He's never gone worse than 7-9 in 16 NFL seasons — we'll see about that this year — but has also made the playoffs in just over half of those (nine) with now six years at .500 or worse. All the offensive numbers were great for years, but was that Payton or was it mostly Drew Brees all those years?
Payton has leaned old school and conservative, and his draft pick of Bo Nix at No. 12 overall certainly feels like a poor man's attempt at late-career Brees with his quick decision-making and release time. Is Payton just hanging on to his old ways at this point? Keeping OC Joe Lombardi around and bringing on Pete Carmichael the moment the Saints moved on certainly looks that way, and DC Vance Joseph's schemes look a bit blitz-happy at this point and leave the defense overexposed.
There's a chance all these recognizable names in Denver are just past their expiration dates.
22. Giants
HC: 19 | OC: 20 | DC: 31 | Last year: 8
It's a hard fall for Brian Daboll after a breakout head coach debut, but it's starting to look like Daboll's early success was more about tons of luck and a huge floor-raising jump after Joe Judge than anything else.
Daboll had a pretty mediocre decade of history before a couple of great Josh Allen breakout seasons, and you wonder how much of his success is just utilizing a quarterback's legs at this point since that's been Daniel Jones's only real weapon. OC Mike Kafka was an exciting hire but we've yet to see much from this run-heavy offense, including terrible line play despite a heavy investment.
I've never been a huge fan of new DC Shane Bowen either, whose Titans defenses tended to be elite against the run at the cost of being disastrous against the pass. The Giants need to find some answers this season or they may be looking for new jobs soon.
23. Bears
HC: 26 | OC: 10 | DC: 16 | Last year: 31
The Bears brought on Shane Waldron at OC, and that's an exciting hire after what he did to resurrect Geno Smith's career and basically keep the Seahawks offense on track even after trading away Russell Wilson after a decade in Seattle. Waldron may be a head coach in waiting, and he'll get help from Thomas Brown.
And therein lies the problem. Why not just hire Waldron as head coach? Matt Eberflus got a big push late, but has he really earned his stay after going 10-24 through two seasons? His presence blocks Waldron from the top role, and if Waldron's offense is successful with Caleb Williams, won't he just leave for a lead job and leave Eberflus to start over again the next year?
This feels like a one-season stop, one way or another.
24. Commanders
HC: 24 | OC: 30 | DC: 14 | Last year: 25
Dan Quinn went 43-42 in six seasons coaching the Falcons, and his one big success was probably mostly just Kyle Shanahan's offense in retrospect. His defenses have been outstanding in Dallas but we'll see how that holds up without elite pass rushers and corner play. Quinn was an uninspired hire, and nobody knows that better than Washington itself since he clearly wasn't even the team's first choice.
OC Kliff Kingsbury is also a retread hire. He continues to see his team found out midseason year after year, throwing about a billion bubble screens and failing to create an easy button or efficient offense for his team. Kingsbury has now worked with Caleb Williams, Kyler Murray, and Patrick Mahomes and pretty consistently gotten the worst out of each one, and that's almost impressive in its putridity.
Quinn added all sorts of other names to his staff. Here's Brian Johnson after a failed year in Philadelphia, there's Anthony Lynn after bumbling through big roles with the Chargers and Lions. Can I interest you in Ken Norton or Darryl Tapp? Larry Izzo (ST) was a great hire, but for the most part, this staff reeks of just name grabbing much like last year's Carolina disaster.
25. Jets
HC: 25 | OC: 32 | DC: 6 | Last year: 26
Robert Saleh is now 18-33 so he wants to avoid another slow start. Saleh has been very conservative as a coach, but he's also helped DC Jeff Ulbrich turn this defense into one of the best in the league. Is that coaching or talent?
Not many are wondering the same thing about OC Nathaniel Hackett anymore. That's entirely just Aaron Rodgers getting his guy, but it's certainly not doing much to add to this offense.
The Jets have high hopes if they can stay healthy enough to make a run, but it would be a surprise if coaching didn't become a serious question somewhere along the way.
Tier 7 — Serious Turnaround Potential
26. Cardinals
HC: 22 | OC: 15 | DC: 32 | Last year: 32
I'm cautiously moving the Cardinals up from last year's cellar after a quietly impressive showing. A mostly unknown staff really maximized a roster badly lacking talent and had this team playing hard, and Arizona upset both the Cowboys and Eagles.
OC Drew Petzing was a standout. Even without a QB, his schemes had this offense whirring right out of the gates, and they were excellent down the stretch with the league's top rushing attack over the back half of the season once Kyler Murray returned. A former tight ends coach, Petzing also helped rookie Trey McBride break out. Petzing is just 37 years old and has only called plays one year but he looks like a name on the rise.
We'll see if we can say the same for Cardinals coach Jonathan Gannon. He got his OC hire right and has this team competing hard, but Gannon is known for his defense, and the Cards were awful on that end last season. If Gannon and DC Nick Rallis can find some answers for a defense that ranked dead last in DVOA, the Cardinals have a real chance to make a shock push up into the NFC playoff picture this season.
27. Panthers
HC: 28 | OC: 26 | DC: 10 | Last year: 11
The Panthers are another overlooked team that could shoot up the standings if their young coach steps forward. Dave Canales was an unknown a year ago but he's done wonders with Baker Mayfield and Geno Smith in back-to-back years, so now it's Bryce Young's turn. He and OC Brad Idzik have their work cut out, but this team was so bad last year that just competency alone could make a big difference.
Canales smartly kept DC Ejiro Evero around. He's one of the league's brightest young names on that side of the ball and could be a future head coaching candidate. His defenses tend to be pass funnels but limit opponent efficiency, and the formula could work but poor Evero keeps ending up in disastrous situations.
There's not a ton of talent in Carolina, but if this coaching staff impresses, there's serious post-Urban Meyer Jaguars potential if the Panthers can just do some things right and raise the floor after last season's disaster.
Tier 8 — Dead Men Walking
28. Buccaneers
HC: 31 | OC: 27 | DC: 9 | Last year: 30
Todd Bowles is a back-to-back division winner thanks to the decrepit NFC South, but he's coached to a 6.4-win pace his last five seasons as an NFL head coach. Bowles remains overcommitted to a terrible run game and he's far too conservative with his decisions. His offenses as a head coach have been bad to awful. Bowles is a pretty good defensive mind, but why are we still doing this head coach thing?
New OC Liam Coen is intriguing and could add some motion and play action this Bucs offense lacked, but we'll see if he can maximize Baker Mayfield the way Canales did a year ago.
It feels like Bowles is just a placeholder until the Bucs find a better answer at some point.
29. Saints
HC: 32 | OC: 24 | DC: 15 | Last year: 29
Dennis Allen feels like a worse version of Bowles. He's now 24-46 lifetime as a head coach, a 5.8-win pace. His offenses have also been terrible, and his game management and decisions disastrous. Allen's Saints defenses have been great but fell off last year in a disappointing campaign.
Klint Kubiak will be a fresh voice at OC for the first time since 2008. He wants to find Derek Carr some answers by attacking the middle and using pre-snap motion a la Shanahan's offense, so maybe that will buy Allen more time yet again. Or maybe it's just a matter of time.
Tier 9 — Guilty Until Proven Innocent
30. Titans
HC: 27 | OC: 28 | DC: 27 | Last year: 23
Every new coaching staff is technically guilty until proven innocent, but these bottom three offer little reason for optimism, even if we just don't know that much yet.
Brian Callahan wasn't even calling the plays in Cincinnati the last half-decade, but his schemes seemed fairly vanilla. He'll call plays for the first time in his career now while also taking the coaching reins, and that feels like a steep ask. He's had some nice aggression so far in preseason.
New DC Dennard Wilson was a bit of a surprise here and might have been the third or fourth name on that Ravens defensive brain trust. He's been great with defensive backs over his career, but it's also his first time calling plays.
The best hire Brian Callahan made was probably his pops. Bill Callahan (OL) is maybe the best in the business, and an offensive line that ranked last in the NFL in many metrics last season certainly needs his help.
There's some intrigue here, but it sure felt like Mike Vrabel was already maximizing this roster, so it could be a real dropoff before things turn around.
31. Patriots
HC: 29 | OC: 24 | DC: 25 | Last year: 2
It's hard to fall much further than the Patriots, who drop from second a year ago to second-to-last now. Where have you gone, Bill Belichick?
For decades, Belichick maximized all those little edges from offensive line play to special teams, and all those edges have now disappeared. That could have been a chance to hit the reset button in New England, but instead, it feels like Patriots have opted for continuity. Considering how poorly the Belichick coaching tree has translated across the rest of the NFL, consider me very skeptical.
Jerod Mayo goes from inside linebackers coach to head coach, and it's pretty impossible to have any idea what to expect there. He and DC DeMarcus Covington have huge shoes to fill on defense, where Belichick had done a great job utilizing misfit weapons that may not work for a less talented coach. On offense, it's OC Alex Van Pelt, another familiar name who tends to skew run-heavy with poor passing metrics. There's still a Belichick on staff, too, along with Belichick disciple Ben McAdoo.
This just feels way too much like the Patriots decided to keep everything in-house, and that seems like exactly the wrong way to reset after Belichick's departure.
32. Raiders
HC: 30 | OC: 31 | DC: 20 | Last year: 28
Antonio Pierce isn't technically new since he was promoted after a brief interim stint, and he certainly instilled a culture in this team, smoking cigars in the locker room and going old-school Raiders football with a smash-mouth, run-first identity. It's tough to see this ending well, though.
The last successful interim-turned-head coach was probably Jason Garrett, and that's defining success very loosely. Pierce may fire up his guys, but his conservative ways will hold the team back, and that's reflected in his hire of new OC Luke Getsy, who also consistently ranked near the bottom of the league in passing metrics in Chicago. Add in veteran assistants like Marvin Lewis, Mike Caldwell, Joe Philbin, and Rob Ryan and you'll see a lot of old school names but we're not building a 90s football team.
Pierce did keep DC Patrick Graham around, and he helped this defense take a big step forward, especially against the pass. Graham has been a hot young name in recent years so he could be this staff's saving grace.
Betting Takeaways
1. Coaching suggests the Browns or Chargers could be AFC sleepers, while the Eagles or Packers could be undervalued in NFC.
Coaching staffs that take big leaps forward often give us our best sleepers. Last year's rankings gave us the Ravens as big values, and the year before gave us the Eagles and Giants as winners.
The AFC is loaded, but Cleveland and Los Angeles coaching staffs could help undermanned rosters hang with the pack. The Browns already did last year despite a disastrous offense, so if Ken Dorsey gets a healthy unit on track and gets real QB play from Deshaun Watson, Cleveland could add offense to a great defense and make a push. The Chargers lost a ton of talent, especially on offense, but don't be surprised if that LA rebuild goes faster than you think with this staff.
Philadelphia decided to keep Nick Sirianni but reshuffle both its coordinators, and I'm banking on both of those being the right decisions. It could take some time early adjusting to Kellen Moore and Vic Fangio, but it's the best staff in the NFC if everything clicks. For Green Bay, it's all about what the new coaches can do to elevate a defense Joe Barry buried year after year. A more balanced effort could mean a Super Bowl push.
The Browns started last year No. 24 in the coaching rankings, while the Chargers finished bottom 10 after a tumultuous season. Both leap into the top seven now. The Eagles ended last season No. 20 but jump back into the top five, while the Packers rise all the from No. 27 this time last year to No. 12.
The Browns (+600) or Chargers (+390) could be surprise division contenders in the AFC. The Eagles (+1500) or Packers (+1900) may have a real shot to come out of the NFC if things go well.
2. Beware the brain drain from elite Super Bowl contenders — 49ers and Ravens.
Last year, the brain drain warned us to be careful in the NFC with the Eagles, Cowboys, and 49ers suffering serious coaching losses. The NFC ended up pretty topsy-turvy, and that big three would have missed the Super Bowl altogether if not for two big San Francisco comebacks.
The 49ers chose their own future this time, pivoting from Steve Wilks to Nick Sorenson at DC, but the team has lost a lot of continuity on that end and a ton of coaching overall in recent years — see also Mike McDaniel, DeMeco Ryans, and Bobby Slowik thriving elsewhere. Until we know more, San Francisco is almost entirely a bet on Kyle Shanahan, and even he can't do everything.
The Ravens lost a tremendous level of defensive coaching with the departures of Mike Macdonald, Anthony Weaver, and Dennard Robinson to promotions elsewhere. Baltimore still has plenty to like, but the defense drove this team's success and new DC Zach Orr is mostly an unknown. The Ravens were also a big red flag in our offensive line rankings. Be careful.
The Dolphins and Rams are lesser contenders who could take a step back after losing top defensive minds.
3. Be careful about falling in love with public division favorites — Texans and Falcons.
Everyone loves the Texans after last season's breakout, but it was a rocky first half of the season for DeMeco Ryans and Bobby Slowik, and Houston barely sneaked into the playoffs. Ryans was great but might not have even been the best debut coach in his own division with Shane Steichen's success in Indianapolis. The Jaguars staff is tough too once Doug Pederson gets things in order.
The Falcons have a bit more insulation in the NFC South with the rest of the division all ranked bottom six, but Atlanta's staff is untested itself. Raheem Morris has been up and down as a head coach, and Zac Robinson is intriguing but unproven as the new OC. Atlanta was a trendy sleeper last year with coaching as a major driving force too, and that staff isn't even around anymore.
Think twice before just tossing trendy division favorites Houston (+105) and Atlanta (-130) into your division winner parlays at such short prices.
4. The Cardinals and Panthers could be long-shot sleepers if their young coaching staffs surprise.
Arizona's staff is running it back after some success. The young Cardinals staff was mostly unknown last fall and ranked dead last coming into the new season, but Jonathan Gannon set a good tone and OC Drew Petzing was a great surprise. Arizona might have found the right staff, though the Cards have their work cut out in a division featuring Kyle Shanahan, Sean McVay, and an intriguing new Seattle staff.
If you like what you see in Carolina, you've got a lot more runway. The Bucs and Saints coaching staffs feel ripe for change, and Atlanta is unproven. The Panthers have one of the league's bright young defensive minds in Ejiro Evero, and it's possible we'll soon talk the same way about Dave Canales if he does for Bryce Young what he did for Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield the last two seasons.
The Cardinals are +1400 to win the NFC West. The Panthers are +1500 in the NFC South. Stranger things have happened — like Texans +1000 last fall!
5. You may want to stay away from the Titans, Patriots, or Raiders as your AFC sleeper.
With entirely new staffs, those three AFC teams sit at the bottom of the coaching rankings until proven otherwise.
The Patriots in particular face one of the biggest brain drains in NFL history with the departure of legendary coach Bill Belichick. He had his hands in everything and helped elevate defense, special teams, and offensive line play, so his absence has a compounding effect too, and the new staff is not particularly inspiring and feels a bit like chasing Belichick steam.
Even if you like these new staffs, don't forget the AFC already has the top two coaching staffs in the league and seven of the top 10, and that's before even counting three other head coaches who've been to the Super Bowl (Doug Pederson, Zac Taylor, and Sean Payton) and everyone's darling, DeMeco Ryans.
If you're looking for this year's deep sleeper, you may be better off choosing from the NFC.
