2024 NFL Defensive Player of the Year Odds & Picks

NFL Defensive Player of the Year (DPOY) isn't the sexiest award, but it's my favorite award to bet on.

As we continue to dive into the 2024 NFL awards, it can be easy to tune out on the boring defense awards, but DPOY actually might be the most predictable award on the slate — and that means we can find great value as bettors.

As in many team sports, defense doesn't garner as much attention, which often leads to voters choosing the actual best player from a short list of name-brand options, without the sort of surprises and narratives that tend to make other awards goofy and unpredictable.

Cleveland's Myles Garrett won DPOY last season, racking up 14 sacks for a filthy Browns defense that performed at historical levels for much of the season under DC Jim Schwartz. Garrett edged out a win over Pittsburgh's T.J. Watt, a previous DPOY winner who finished with 19 sacks to lead the league, and Dallas's Micah Parsons also picked up 14% of first-place votes with 14 sacks himself.

Will Garrett, Watt and Parsons contend for the crown again in 2024?

Before we narrow the field and place our bets, let's start by building a historical profile of recent DPOY winners. Then we'll set up what I think is the best position on the entire futures market heading into the new 2024 season.

• NFL MVP
• NFL Coach of the Year
• NFL Offensive Player of the Year
• NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year
• NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year

2024 NFL Defensive Player of the Year Odds

Who Wins Defensive Player of the Year?

Look at the patterns from the last 10 DPOY winners:

• 2023 Myles Garrett, Browns
• 2022 Nick Bosa, 49ers
• 2021 T.J. Watt, Steelers
• 2020 Aaron Donald, Rams
• 2019 Stephon Gilmore, Patriots
• 2018 Aaron Donald, Rams
• 2017 Aaron Donald, Rams
• 2016 Khalil Mack, Raiders
• 2015 J.J. Watt, Texans
• 2014 J.J. Watt, Texans

1. The same DPOY candidates get votes year after year.

Defense is about respect. Once the league's elite defenders earn the respect of the voting base, they tend to get votes year after year. There are only 50 voters, but even still, Aaron Donald received at least one first-place vote in seven straight seasons.

Donald and J.J. Watt are retired now, but they won half of the last 12 DPOYs. Only eight players have multiple DPOY awards in NFL history, and it's a Hall of Fame list — Donald (x3), Watt (x3), Ray Lewis, Reggie White, Bruce Smith, Lawrence Taylor (x3), Mike Singletary and Joe Greene.

While the same guys keep getting votes, you better be really good to win that second DPOY.

The bigger takeaway: seven of the last 10 winners finished in the top six in DPOY voting the year before — and two of the other three were still First Team All-Pro the season before. There are approximately 800 defenders rostered in the NFL, and 70% of the time only six of them are really in the mix.

Last year's top six: Myles Garrett, T.J. Watt, Micah Parsons, Maxx Crosby, DaRon Bland and Fred Warner.

Notice anything in common with that top four?

2. Modern winners get after the quarterback and rack up sacks.

Nine of the last 10 winners were ferocious pass rushers.

Last year's top four recorded 14, 19, 14, and 14.5 sacks. All four finished in the top eight in the NFL in sacks. Turns out it really is that simple.

Stephon Gilmore was an exception to the norm. Gilmore led the league in interceptions and passes defensed for a No. 1 Patriots defense. The other nine winners got after the quarterback for 16.5 sacks on average in their winning season. All eight had at least 11 sacks, and five had at least 17.5.

The measure is clear, but the bar is high.

3. We're looking for a defender in his prime, ideally age 25-27.

Seven of the last 10 winners were between 25-27 years old, with an average age just under 27 over the past decade.

The last DPOY in his 30s was Charles Woodson (2009). Gilmore and Donald won at 29, and Garrett broke through last season at age 28 but was 27 for almost the entire season.

Six of the last 10 DPOYs won in either their fourth or fifth NFL season, with the average winner in year 5.2.

So we need a great defender in his prime, preferably a pass rusher. But there's one more pattern.

4. This isn't a team award. DPOY is about individual brilliance.

You might assume voters just choose the best defender from the best defense, but that's not always the case.

Only four of the last 10 DPOYs played on a defense that finished in the top 10 in points allowed per game, and only three were top six. Just six of our 10 winners played for teams that finished in thetop seven in Defensive DVOA.

The average DPOY played for a team ranked 11th in points allowed per game allowed and ninth in Defensive DVOA.

That's not bad! But it's not exactly great, not even in the top quarter of the league. Only one winner in the last decade finished in the top three in both categories — our one big outlier in Gilmore. In fact, three of our winners finished on teams 20th or worse in points allowed per game.

You do need to win, though. All 10 won at least nine games, with an average of 11.0 wins.

If there's one super elite defense, voters may go for best-player-best-team. Otherwise, they tend to just pick the best, most impactful defender — which is usually just the guy with the most sacks.

So what are we looking for in a Defensive Player of the Year?

We want the league's best defender, which will probably be a pass rusher. It's probably someone age 25-27 with 15+ sacks on a top-10 defense, on a team with 9+ wins. And we should start with last year's top-six vote-getters.

In last year's DPOY preview, we narrowed the field to five names and bet on three. Those three players finished first, second, and third in the voting and we coasted to the easiest no-sweat awards cash ever.

Let's rule some key names out, and then focus on the five players most likely to win.

No Pass Rush? No Thanks!

Kyle Hamilton, Ravens +4000
Sauce Gardner, Jets +6600
Fred Warner, 49ers +10000

Voters still tend to fall back on the numbers, and sacks are easy, flashy numbers.

I love a superstar safety, corner, and linebacker as much as the next guy, but we have to follow the votes. These guys have plenty of reputation and probably deserve to be in the mix.

You could argue that Warner already was last season, but even finishing in sixth place gave him only 1.6% of the total vote share.

Voters have established a clear precedent here. We're betting pass rushers, and pass rushers only.

5 Long-Shot Pass Rushers to Keep in Mind

Montez Sweat, Bears +5000
Rashan Gary, Packers +5000
Haason Reddick, Jets +12500
Bryce Huff, Eagles +25000
Quinnen Williams, Jets +30000

We know we want a pass rusher who's capable of 15 or more sacks. These guys fit the bill, with long enough odds to nibble if you fancy a sleeper.

Montez Sweat had six sacks in nine games with the Bears and helped the defense make a huge leap over the back half of the season, so he could get some attention if Chicago takes another step forward. Rashan Gary has yet to hit double-digit sacks but is the best player on a talented Packers defense that's disappointed but gets a fresh start under new DC Jeff Hafley.

Bryce Huff moves from part-time role player to featured pass rusher and joins a talented defensive line that's seen a ton of success in recent years. Huff had 10 sacks even in a bit role and ranked top 10 in PFF Pass Rush grade, a list that's a who's who of the league's elite pass rushers.

Sauce Gardner may be the best defender on the Jets, but we want sacks and that means Quinnen Williams or Haason Reddick. Those two both finished in the top seven in DPOY voting two seasons ago with 28 sacks combined. Williams is a tackle, which makes it difficult to put up many numbers, and Reddick is likely too old entering his age-30 season but has 11+ sacks in four straight seasons and would get a ton of attention with a big season in New York after his trade and holdout.

This is a favorites award but if you want a long shot, consider one of those five.

5 Pass Rushers to Avoid

Danielle Hunter, Texans +4000

Hunter has five seasons with double-digit sacks, and he has 62 sacks in 73 games over the past five seasons.

He was a splashy free agent signing for the Texans this offseason and should get plenty of opportunities across Will Anderson, but Hunter is 30 and that goes against our rules and is probably just too late in a career for a player to jump from really good with a great reputation to best in the league.

Chris Jones, Chiefs +3500

Jones had a slight down year last season but plays for the back-to-back champs, and he's the best player on what could be a top-10 defense. He has two seasons with 15.5 sacks and certainly has the reputation after four straight All-Pro seasons, and he finished third in the voting two seasons ago.

But it's very tough to win DPOY at tackle unless your name is Aaron Donald, and Jones is also 30 years old this season, so that falls outside our criteria. Jones should have a great season, but he'll likely have a tough time hitting the peak sack numbers he'd need to win.

Josh Hines-Allen, Jaguars +3200

No longer to be confused with the Buffalo QB, Josh Hines-Allen had a heck of a season in his own right. He set the Jaguars all-time franchise record in a single season with 17.5 sacks in a breakout campaign, and he's right in his prime at age 27.

But Hines-Allen had never even topped seven sacks before last season. Even though he tied for second in the league in sacks, he was shut out of the All-Pro teams and didn't get a single DPOY vote. Top defenders typically need to make the ballot and earn a reputation before they go on to win it.

Will Anderson, Texans +3000

Anderson made a late push to win Defensive Rookie of the Year and cash our ticket last season, but asking him to make another leap to DPOY is just too much too soon.

Even in a DROY campaign, Anderson finished with only seven sacks. He's an outstanding run defender but tackles don't win DPOY, and he's pretty young to compete here after just turning 23 this week. Anderson isn't even favored to lead his own team in sacks.

It's not unprecedented for a defender to win this award his sophomore season, but it hasn't happened in over a decade.

Aidan Hutchinson, Lions +1400

Hutchinson is the toughest omission from our list. Think Will Anderson, but one year older with more time to garner a bigger reputation.

That does mean Hutchinson is technically still too young for our criteria at age 24, entering his third season, but only barely. Hutchinson has yet to receive any DPOY votes or make an All-Pro team, and history says he probably needs a season proving himself worthy of top-five consideration before voters will give him the award.

Still, Hutchinson has 21 sacks in two seasons, and he ranked top five in Pass Rush grade at PFF last season, behind four guys widely considered the best pass rushers in the league. Expect Hutchinson to show up on some ballots and have a big season for a rising Detroit defense that will have everyone's attention, but he's priced too short to merit playing at +1400.

We just touched on 13 great defenders, but we've got five guys left. And I'd make it better than 80% our 2024 Defensive Player of the Year is on the list of five names below.

The 5 Most Likely Winners

Nick Bosa, 49ers +1000 (FanDuel)

Remember, voters like to reward repeat winners, with six of the last 12 going to the same two players. Nick Bosa is coming off a disappointing 10.5-sack campaign but still averages 14.8 sacks over his past three seasons and had 18.5 and 15.5 the previous two years.

Bosa was coming off a holdout last year and didn't get much help playing in a new scheme under since-departed DC Steve Wilks. San Francisco's turn to Nick Sorensen should bring out more of the Bosa that thrived under DeMeco Ryans, and Bosa should be in a favorable script to pin back his ears and rush the passer much of the season against outgunned opponents trailing the mighty Niners offense.

Bosa's counting numbers were down last season, but advanced metrics say he actually had his best season as a pass rusher.

Maxx Crosby, Raiders +850 (FanDuel)

Crosby has certainly been on voters' radar in recent years, finishing fourth in DPOY voting last year and sixth the previous season. He's also 27 years old, so the voter history and age profile check out.

The numbers do too — mostly. Crosby has 52 sacks in 83 games and is coming off a career-best 14.5, and he barely comes off the field and plays nearly every down so that's just more chances for flash plays.

But that also tells us Crosby may already be playing at (pardon the pun) max capacity, and sure enough, his PFF Pass Rush grade actually sits outside the top 15 edge rushers. Crosby is really, really good, but his profile says he's not quite the best.

There's also one more problem — we need a winner. Remember, every DPOY over the last decade won at least nine games (so, 10 in the 17-game era) with an average of 11.0 wins. Crosby's Raiders aren't very good, priced at +680 to win at least 11 games.

A bet on Crosby is unfortunately also a bet on Gardner Minshew or Aidan O'Connell. Pass.

T.J. Watt, Steelers +850 (FanDuel)

I've recommended Watt as one of my DPOY bets two years in a row in this column. And why wouldn't I?

Watt has led the NFL in sacks in three of the last four seasons, and he was hurt the other one. He had 19, 22.5, and 15 sacks the other three years and is now at 89.5 sacks in 89 games since his rookie season, effectively one per game for his entire prime.

Watt really only missed time that one year, and it doesn't take much math to figure 17 Watt games probably puts him back around 17 sacks and right in the DPOY mix on a perennially great Steelers defense.

We should acknowledge that Watt would be a definite outlier, though. He turned 30 this season, so he'd be the oldest DPOY since 2009, and it's also no certainty the Steelers will have a winning season in a loaded AFC North, despite Mike Tomlin's history.

Still, some of these historical rules tend to get thrown out the window for awards when it comes to legends of the game, and it's hard to argue T.J. Watt is anything other than that at this point.

If Watt leads the league in sacks yet again, couldn't you see voters asking themselves if it's insane he's only ever won one DPOY and getting him on that list of muli-time DPOY winners?

Be sure to shop around if you do decide to play Watt. He's a favorite at some books.

Myles Garrett, Browns +800 (DraftKings)

Two years ago, we left Garrett off our betting position because he didn't have the reputation yet, but then we played him last fall after a leap to fifth in voting after a second consecutive 16-sack season. He actually dipped to 14 last fall but made good on our bet and certainly has the reputation now as the defending DPOY.

We know voters like to pick repeat defensive winners, and they haven't been opposed to back-to-back winners.

Garrett is now at six consecutive double-digit sack seasons, and the Browns defense should again contend for top defense in the league. DC Jim Schwartz loves to play wide nine, moving his pass rushes far out onto the edge to give them the angle, and Garrett has proven unstoppable at times off the edge.

The Browns had a historically great defense for parts of last season and could find life even easier if the offense can find any life at all. Garrett is a touch on the older side for this award, turning 29 in December, but we can't build a DPOY position without him.

But he's still not the favorite.

Micah Parsons, Cowboys +600 (BetMGM)

Micah Parsons is the betting favorite for a second straight season, and he certainly feels like the right favorite.

It looked like Parsons would run away with DPOY in fall 2022 when he racked up eight sacks in seven games to start the season, but just 5.5 more over the final 10 games left him runner-up. Last fall was a similar story. Parsons had 11.5 sacks through 11 games and looked set to win, but then he had only 2.5 sacks over his final six games and finished third in the voting.

That gives Parsons 13, 13.5, and 14 sacks his first three seasons as a pro, and he's three-for-three in top-three DPOY finishes. He's also 25 years old — "old enough" now for the first time by our criteria — and entering his fourth season, another bullseye on our checklist.

The Cowboys should win plenty of games, and who knows what new Dallas DC Mike Zimmer could do to unlock Parsons even further?

It seems pretty clear Micah Parsons will win DPOY at some point in his career. Why not now? If you only make one DPOY bet in 2024, Parsons is the clear front-runner.

The Verdict

So, we have four excellent DPOY candidates, with four of the top five odds. Which one should we bet on?

Would you believe the answer might just be all four?

The implied odds suggest Parsons is 14.3% likely to win, with Garrett at 11.1%, Watt at 10.5%, and Bosa at 9.1%. I genuinely think all four of those percentages are too low, considering how strong favorites do here and how narrow the field is.

I would absolutely take Parsons, Garrett, Watt and Bosa versus the field. In fact, my numbers make them much better than 2-to-1 favorites against the field, maybe even as high as 75% or 80% combined.

That means there's value on all four — so we're betting all four of them.

If we bet all four guys evenly, we get an implied +122, or 34.5%. We're basically getting those four guys against the field, and they're giving us odds even though I think we should be paying something closer to -350.

If you don't want to bet all four, you can pick your favorites and build a position. Watt is older and may not get the wins. Garrett's a bit older too. Bosa's production may not be there. Parsons is the only one who looks like a bullseye, and even he has an unknown role in Zimmer's new defense.

If you play three of the four, you'll build a position somewhere around +200, or you could grab a couple of names now and hope to add the others later at a longer price.

But why mess around? The entire point of this position is a set-it-and-forget-it winner pick, a bet I feel so good about I'm calling it my top awards position of the season and using it to fund the rest of my futures betting. That means betting at least a full unit on each of the four guys, maybe more if you like the angle.

It's pretty likely the DPOY comes down to just five to seven guys, like usual. If we can lock in four of them — the four most likely winners — at +122, we should absolutely take our chances.

Build your Defensive Player of the Year position around Micah Parsons +600, Myles Garrett +800, T.J. Watt +850, and Nick Bosa +1000. It's the best awards position on the futures market this 2024 season.