It's time to dig into season-long awards bets for the 2024 NFL season. Today, we're starting with Defensive Rookie of the Year (DROY).
Last season, we nailed this pick with a multi-unit bet on Will Anderson Jr.
This year's draft was loaded with more offense at the top than any in NFL history, with no defender taken among the first 14 selections. Favorites tend to win defensive awards in the NFL, so what happens for this award when there aren't any favorites?
Let's build a DROY winner profile by considering the names at the top of the draft and zeroing in on the two guys who I think will battle for this award.
- NFL MVP
- NFL Offensive Player of the Year
- NFL Defensive Player of the Year
- NFL Coach of the Year
- NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year
2024 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Odds
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Laiatu Latu | +400 |
| Dallas Turner | +440 |
| Jared Verse | +700 |
| Byron Murphy | +1400 |
| Chop Robinson | +1400 |
| Terrion Arnold | +1400 |
| Quinyon Mitchell | +1600 |
| Cooper DeJean | +3500 |
| Mike Sainristil | +3500 |
| Junior Colson | +3500 |
| Nate Wiggins | +3500 |
| Austin Booker | +4000 |
| Kool-Aid McKinstry | +4000 |
| Braden Fiske | +4000 |
Who Wins Defensive Rookie of the Year?
1. Unlike many other awards, favorites tend to win.
Three of the last four DROY winners started the season at +700 or shorter in the market. They were among the betting favorites from the very start. In fact, eight of the last 12 winners were +900 or shorter.
Only two players this season have odds as short as +900 at most books: Colts edge rusher Laiatu Latu and Vikings edge rusher Dallas Turner.
2. DROY tends to be an award for pass rushers.
Seven of the last 10 DROYs racked up at least seven sacks. It's hard to find playing time as a rookie and even tougher to put up numbers to make a noticeable impact, so it's sometimes easier to flash a few times.
Only three corners have won the award this century — though all three have come since 2015. This used to be a linebacker award, but only one off-ball LB (Shaq Leonard) has won in the past decade.
No safety has won since 1990, though no safety was taken until No. 47 this season.
3. Winning doesn't matter much — but an improving defense does.
Unlike some awards, voters don't expect rookie defenders to come in and work miracles.
Winning, and even team defensive metrics, do not seem particularly important for DROY winners. Eight of the last 14 winners, over half, were on teams that finished .500 or worse — though five of the last seven won at least 10, so maybe that's changing.
It does seem to help if voters see a huge leap in defensive performance as a team.
The last seven winners joined a team that ranked bottom six in PPG allowed and helped turn things around to a top-11 finish like Anderson did last year with the Texans. This year, that list of teams at the bottom includes the Commanders, Cardinals, Eagles, Panthers, Colts, and Broncos.
4. The most predictive factor is draft position.
Every single DROY this century was drafted within the top 39 picks.
Twenty-one of the 24 were taken in the first round, and 20 of the 24 went top 15. That's an 83% chance our DROY is one of 15 names — and that's more like seven or eight since half the guys picked play offense, and just one this year! Heck, seven of the 24 winners this century were simply the first defender off the board.
It makes sense, and it's a bit of selection bias. The guys taken at the top of the draft are the best prospects. They're the most ready to play, and most likely to step into a bad situation with an easier and certain path to playing time.
Draft pick remains king.
So, what are we looking for?
We want a pass rusher who was a top 40 draft pick, likely top 15, and flashy plays matter much more than winning. And actually, it's probably just one of the favorites.
Let's get to the names to consider.
It's Tough for Defensive Tackles to Win
DT Byron Murphy, Seahawks
DT Ruke Orhorhoro, Falcons
DT Jer'Zhan Newton, Commanders
DT T'Vondre Sweat, Titans
DT Braden Fiske, Rams
It's really tough for a defensive tackle to make a big enough splash to win a defensive award — unless that player is named Aaron Donald.
Tackles play inside, eating up space, stuffing the run, and trying to get to the quarterback up the middle. But they typically don't rack up many counting stats, and like it or not, that's what a majority of voters still seem to go on, even in 2024 — just ask Philadelphia's Jalen Carter last season.
Carter was probably the best defensive rookie last season, and he certainly was the first three-fourths of the year before fading late during the Eagles' collapse. Only two of the last 29 DROYs played defensive tackle.
These five guys were all top 40 picks, and Murphy was even the second defender off the board, but his career-high was five sacks. He's intriguing in Mike Macdonald's aggressive, takeaway-happy system, but a tough sell priced at just +1100.
It's just too tough for these guys to get noticed at defensive tackle.
Corners Don't Win All That Often Either
CB Quinyon Mitchell, Eagles
CB Terrion Arnold, Lions
CB Nate Wiggins, Ravens
CB Cooper DeJean, Eagles
CB Kool-Aid McKinstry, Saints
Much like defensive tackles, it's hard for corners to rack up flashy stats. There have been only three cornerback DROY winners this century — though all in the last decade.
The Eagles invested heavily at corner and fit the bill as a poor PPG allowed defense hoping to turn things around. The Lions and Ravens should be winners, so their rookies could be immediate playoff contributors. McKinstry has a great smile and an awesome nickname to go with it.
Still, it's pretty hard to get noticed as a corner, without a few splashy interceptions or a pick-six.
Corners may be more trendy lately, but I still prefer a pass rusher.
Three First Round Edges to Avoid
ED Jared Verse, Rams +1100
ED Chop Robinson, Dolphins +1700
ED Darius Robinson, Cardinals +7500
Darius Robinson was picked at No. 27 but starts the year on the PUP list, so he's ineligible to play at least the first four games. That explains the long odds here for a guy who had 14 sacks last year. The Cardinals need help everywhere on what looks like the league's worst defense, so Robinson should contribute when ready. Keep an eye out to consider adding him at a super long number after Week 3 if he looks ready to return soon.
Jared Verse had nine sacks at Florida State each of the last two years, and it looks like he'll start opposite one of last year's top rookies, Byron Young. But the Rams lost Aaron Donald and DC Raheem Morris and project to have one of the worst defenses in the league, much like the Cardinals. That doesn't necessarily knock Verse out, but it could mean opponents are running to protect leads a lot of the time or that the corners are just getting beat before the edge rushers can even get home.
I like Chop Robinson the best of the three, even though his career high in college was 5.5 sacks. Like these other two, he steps into plenty of opportunity in Miami with both Jaelan Philips and Bradley Chubb out to start the season. Robinson ran a super fast 40 and has a quick first step. He'll be an interesting weapon for new DC Anthony Weaver, who comes over from Baltimore and likely brings the Ravens' aggressive mindset with him.
Ultimately, though I think this award comes down to the same two guys books agree are nearly co-favorites: Laiatu Latu and Dallas Turner.
The Two Correct Favorites, and Which One to Bet
ED Laiatu Latu, Colts +425 (DraftKings)
ED Dallas Turner, Vikings +450 (DraftKings)
In the least top-heavy defensive draft in NFL history, it's certainly possible we'll have to throw the rules out and look for an outlier. But my analysis is to still trust two of the top three defenders taken on Draft Day.
Laiatu Latu was the top defender selected and the only one taken in the top 15. He had 10.5 and 13 sacks the last two seasons and had a flurry of additional pressures, getting near the quarterback with a super quick get-off time, even if he wasn't finishing the job with a sack.
Latu joins what could be a loaded defensive line. He's expected to start opposite former first-round pick Kwity Paye with star tackles Grover Stewart and D'Forest Buckner between them, and that could help the Colts leap from a bottom-six PPG allowed last season. Gus Bradley edge rushers tend to get six to nine sacks, and that's right in the range we're looking for.
Laiatu Latu checks every box. If he's your guy, he's a valid pick.
But I prefer Dallas Turner, ever so slightly.
Turner was taken at No. 17, technically just outside our preferred range, but that probably counts as the third defender off the board. He had 10 sacks last season and 22.5 in three years at Alabama, and we've certainly seen Bama edge rushers translate to the NFL.
In fact, we just saw one win this award a year ago — and man, if Turner doesn't feel like deja vu all over again.
One year ago, Houston drafted a franchise quarterback in C.J. Stroud, then traded up a heap to add a second lofty pick and get its aggressive, defensive-minded coach a star edge rusher in Alabama's Will Anderson. Anderson was widely considered the top edge rusher in the class, starred opposite Jonathan Greenard all season, and went on to win Defensive Rookie of the Year.
This year, Minnesota drafted a franchise quarterback in J.J. McCarthy, then traded up to add a second high pick and get aggressive DC Brian Flores a star edge rusher in Alabama's Dallas Turner. Turner was widely considered the top edge rusher in the class, and he'll star opposite Jonathan Greenard, who just signed with Minnesota this offseason. Might Turner also follow Anderson's footsteps and win DROY?
Turner is actually a very similar prospect to Anderson per StatsBomb, with the only significant difference being Anderson's superior run ability — probably why he went No. 3 instead of No. 17 like Turner.
But the thing you especially love about Turner is the situation he steps into in Minnesota.
Remember, we want splash plays, and no defense in the league blitzes more often than the Vikings. Brian Flores called 348 blitzes last season, a full 20.8% more than the next-highest team in the league at 288. Flores wants his guys to get after the quarterback, and he just got himself a new toy.
Danielle Hunter had 16.5 sacks under Flores last season, and D.J. Wonnum had eight of his own. Those two are both gone now, replaced by Turner, Greenard, and Andrew Van Ginkel, and those 24.5 sacks are up for grabs. Flores defenses consistently produce sacks across the board. Even if Turner doesn't play full-time, he will be unleashed to get after the passer.
Turner could even get a narrative boost from voters. He'll play this season with a heavy heart after the tragic death of Vikings teammate, Khyree Jackson, who passed away in a car accident in July. Jackson was a fourth-round pick this spring, and he was Turner's former teammate at Alabama too.
Both Latu and Turner look like excellent DROY choices. Latu fits the historical pattern slightly better, but I like Turner more in that Flores system — and that's why many readers may have already grabbed him the night of the draft when we snagged him at +750.
If you got Turner at +750, you've got options. If you want to add Latu and give yourself two outs, you give yourself the top two options on the board at an implied +233. If you're a fresh bettor and just want to grab both now, your implied ticket is +183.
If you're only playing one, either are good choices — remember, you want the favorites for defensive awards.
As for me, Dallas Turner is my guy and I'm sticking with him as my 2024 Defensive Rookie of the Year pick.
