My favorite NFL draft bets are in the over/under draft position market.
If you monitor many mock drafts closely, you can find monstrous CLV and value before the sportsbooks catch up.
It’s important to be early on information, so I’m writing this piece a few weeks ahead of the draft for positions that show value now. Our staff will find different over/under spots as we approach draft day.
Here are my favorite three wagers as of Sunday, April 14.
OT Joe Alt
Notre Dame
Alt is the best tackle in the draft and a day-one starter.
Alt led all D-I tackles in PFF’s grades this past season, showing surprising balance, agility, and recovery skills for a guy with his massive size. That shows in his NFL combine numbers, as he posted a 95th percentile three-cone drill time (7.3 seconds) and a 95th percentile 20-yard shuttle time (4.5 seconds).
Alt then leverages his monster frame – specifically his 34 ¼” arm length – to keep pass rushers at bay while jumping all over defenders as a run blocker.
Alt was slightly better as a pass protector at Notre Dame, but most analysts believe his higher upside is as a run-blocker, where he washes defenders down the line. The consensus is that he can be passive in pass protection, specifically waiting too long to anchor.
Either way, Alt checks every box as a first-year starter, and he likely can play in any scheme.
Specifically, most mock drafts have him taken at five by the Chargers or – if Jim Harbaugh decides to trade down – at seven by the Titans.
Vegas Refund has tracked 35 mock drafts by the nation’s leading analysis, and 33 have Alt going to the Titans or Chargers, with most picking Tennessee as the landing spot.
And Nashville is the obvious place for Alt to ply his trade. The Titans have a second-year quarterback with outside weapons and desperately need protection. Alt and Peter Skoronski give the team a tremendous young line corps.
I’m also unconvinced that someone will trade up with the Chargers to grab a quarterback like JJ McCarthy or Michael Penix. That takes away another potential player who could be taken ahead of Alt, who The Athletic has graded as the fifth overall draft prospect.
The juice is high, but we have enough data to support the position.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-210 at DraftKings)
TE Brock Bowers
Georgia
Who doesn’t want a Brock Bowers in this day and age?
He’s the next-generation George Kittle – quick and explosive, with elite top speed, which he pairs with sharp footwork and route-running skills. He can get open, catches everything (career 4.4% drop rate in college) and is a YAC machine.
Like most elite tight ends, Bowers is a walking mismatch. But unlike many tight ends, he has monster big-play ability.
He consistently showed that at Georgia. Despite playing only 10 games last year, Bowers led the team in receiving yards, pulling down 56 passes for over 700 yards at nearly 13 per catch.
Bowers isn’t a great blocker, but the NFL no longer values that. Look at Travis Kelce.
Instead, Bowers is a unicorn playmaker who should be valued highly by any offense aspiring to produce explosives.
Line him up anywhere, and Bowers will make something happen.
You know who could use a tight end like that? Aaron Rodgers, especially considering the Jets don’t really have a slot receiver – Breece Hall ranked second on the team in receptions in 2023.
24 of Vegas Refund’s 35 tracked mock drafts have Bowers going to the Jets at 10. Another has him going to the Bears at nine (Walter Football), meaning around 71% of tracked mock drafts have the legendary collegiate tight end taken in the top 10.
Yet, we can snag Bowers at pick 11 or better at +130 on Caesars Sportsbook, which looks like significant value to me.
Somebody at the top should want Bowers, who The Athletic grades as the seventh overall best prospect in the draft.
Pick: Under 11.5 (+130 at Caesars)
WR Brian Thomas Jr.
LSU
Early steam hit Brian Thomas Jr., pushing his draft position number down.
But it’s bottomed out, now climbing from 15.5 to 16.5.
We can still buy Thomas Over 15.5 for -140 at Bet365, which is cheap compared to the rest of the market.
Nobody has Thomas going in the top half of the first round. Among Vegas Refund’s 35 tracked mocks, Thomas’ estimated draft position is over 19, with 11 of those mocks taking Thomas after pick 20.
I think the consensus is that there are three elite receiver prospects in the 2024 draft, and then Thomas. He’s a dangerous downfield over-the-top threat, but his route-running needs work.
In my eyes, I see Quinten Johnston, who was selected 21st in last year’s draft and went on to catch only 38 passes for 431 yards in his rookie season.
It’s not the most apt comparison – Johnston has a pass-catching problem that Thomas doesn’t – but I didn't think the world of Johnston, and I don’t think the world of Thomas.
Thomas excelled at LSU last year but was catching passes from a Heisman-winning quarterback while lining up next to multiple NFL wideouts, including Malik Nabers, who will undoubtedly be selected earlier.
I see Thomas falling toward the back of the first round. He’s a work in progress, with the physical tools to be a dangerous weapon but tactical skills that must be heavily sharpened.
Pick: Over 15.5 (-140 at bet365)
