On Thursday, 15 Tar Heels will take the field for North Carolina’s pro day. All eyes will be on quarterback Drake Maye, as he’s expected to be a top-three pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.
Like most top quarterbacks in this draft class, Maye did not throw at the scouting combine, so he’ll throw in front of NFL media and team personnel for the first time on Thursday.
Let’s examine Maye’s strengths and weaknesses as a prospect and where he lands in the NFL Draft betting market.
What To Expect from Maye’s Pro Day
After opting out of participating in the NFL combine, teams and media members will be clamoring to see Maye on Thursday. It remains to be seen which, if any, of the athletic testing drills Maye will participate in, but he’ll be put through a passing workout with throws being made to all areas of the field.
“Quarterback pro days are real intense now,” Maye told NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero. “You’ve got about 60-something throws, you’re in there about 45 minutes to an hour.” Those 60-something throws will be crucial for Maye as his stock seems to have dipped in recent weeks due to the buzz around Jayden Daniels and J.J. McCarthy.
Many of the teams in attendance on Thursday will be coming from Baton Rouge, La., where they watched Daniels’ pro day on Wednesday. The teams that met with Daniels will also likely meet with Maye, including the Commanders and Patriots — those two hold the second and third overall picks in this year’s draft, respectively.
Maye’s Strengths
If you were building a pocket passer in a lab, you’d end up with something resembling Maye. At 6-foot-4 and 223 pounds, Maye has a well-built frame with incredible arm strength to match. He arguably has the most velocity and touch of all the quarterbacks in this draft class, with the ability to contort his arm angles and make throws to all three levels of the field. His passing over the middle is consistently on time and accurate.
While Maye won’t kill you as a rusher like Caleb Williams or Daniels, he has better mobility than he gets credit for, particularly in maneuvering around a collapsing pocket. Maye does an excellent job of keeping his eyes downfield and possesses impressive accuracy out of structure. He ranked second in the country with 34 big-time throws last year, according to PFF.
At just 21 years old, Maye has traits that would make him the QB1 in most draft classes if not for the presence of Williams.
Awesome throw on the move from Drake Maye to J.J. Jones pic.twitter.com/mZvHeooDGw
— Ian Valentino (@NFLDraftStudy) November 18, 2023
Maye’s Weaknesses
Maye’s film isn’t perfect, and there are moments when his gunslinger mentality gets him into trouble.
At times, Maye trusts his remarkable arm strength too much, making dangerous cross-body throws or risky passes into tight windows. There were also times when Maye would pre-determine his throws rather than work through his progressions.
North Carolina's offensive line was poor last season, so Maye was often under pressure, and his production was inconsistent. His 6.7 yards per attempt under pressure ranked 51st among 162 qualified passers. However, learning to play within the structure of an NFL offense shouldn’t be a problem for him.
Many of the weaknesses in Maye’s game that you will hear cited back to the fact that North Carolina’s overall offense had issues last season. Offensive coordinator Phil Longo, whom Maye thrived under in 2022, left for Wisconsin, and the scheme in 2023 sometimes let Maye down. The Tar Heels also lacked consistent separators at receiver and reliable pass protection, putting Maye in difficult situations.
Best Team Fit
Maye would be a tremendous fit for the Commanders at No. 2, especially with Kliff Kingsbury as their new offensive coordinator.
Kingsbury was a disciple of Mike Leach, and he broke numerous passing records playing in Leach’s Air Raid offense at Texas Tech. Former North Carolina offensive coordinator Phil Longo was also a Leach disciple, and Maye thrived in the Longo offense with 4,321 passing yards and 38 touchdowns in 2022.
We could also see the Vikings get aggressive and potentially trade up for Maye. Minnesota would be a tremendous landing spot for Maye’s development — head coach Kevin O’Connell is a brilliant offensive mind from the Sean McVay coaching tree and Justin Jefferson headlines an elite skill position group. Minnesota’s quarterbacks coach is also Josh McCown, who coached Maye as a volunteer assistant coach at Myers Park High School.
Betting Odds
The betting markets steamed Jayden Daniels to as high as -180 to go No. 2 in the draft, but we’ve seen some buyback in recent days. I’d still be looking to get a plus-money bet on Drake Maye in my portfolio, and the best number currently available is +150 on BetMGM or DraftKings.All three versions of Daniel Jeremiah’s mock draft have had Maye going No. 2 to the Commanders, and he’s considered by many as the best in the business.
While DraftKings offers odds for some players on specific team landing spots, they don’t have that market available for Maye. If you can find a long-shot number on Maye at 6-1 or better to land in Minnesota, I’d consider that a solid option. The Vikings are clearly all in on this year’s quarterback class after seeing Kirk Cousins leave in free agency and making a trade up to acquire the No. 23 pick in addition to No. 11 — they’re well-positioned for a move.
Keep an eye out for further movement in the betting markets after Maye’s pro day. Be sure to check out the Action Network podcast, where I’m breaking down the latest betting-related news every week leading up to the NFL Draft.
