On Wednesday, LSU’s highly anticipated pro day will feature top quarterback prospect Jayden Daniels throwing in front of NFL media and team personnel for the first time.
While plenty of high-level prospects will take the field in Baton Rouge, Daniels will draw a massive crowd with the expectation to be a top-three pick in the upcoming draft. Let's get into Daniels’ strengths and weaknesses as a prospect and where he lands in the betting market.
What to Expect from Daniels’ Pro Day
The top quarterbacks skipped athletic testing drills in this year’s scouting combine, and Daniels joined names like Caleb Williams and Drake Maye in opting out of throwing. That makes their pro days must-see TV, with NFL teams sending plenty of eyeballs to Baton Rouge on Wednesday. Expect many personnel members to be taking flights to Louisiana from the owners’ meetings around 700 miles east in Orlando.
Daniels is expected to undergo a full passing workout and participate in some athletic testing drills. Of particular intrigue will be his 40-yard dash, as he’s expected to be one of the fastest quarterback prospects in recent memory. Daniels’ line was priced at over/under 4.52 seconds on PrizePicks before he opted out of running at the Combine.
In addition to throwing and testing, Daniels will meet with NFL teams after Wednesday’s workout. Those meetings include the teams with the top three picks in the draft — the Bears, Commanders and Patriots — as well as teams a bit further down the board who may trade up, including the Vikings and Broncos.
Jayden Daniels’ Strengths
Jayden Daniels, last year's Heisman winner, posted monstrous numbers as a senior at LSU with more than 3,800 passing yards, 1,100 rushing yards and 50 total touchdowns.
Daniels has electric dual-threat capability with the escapability in the pocket teams look for. In addition to off-script playmaking ability, Daniels brings an ability to command the pocket and make throws at all three levels.
Daniels led all college quarterbacks with a 99.2 Pro Football Focus passing grade on deep throws (20+ yards) and a 69.1% adjusted completion rate that ranked over 10% better than the next-best quarterback. He finished with 22 touchdowns with no interceptions on deep throws.
Daniels will also bring a verified rushing threat to the NFL after he averaged 8.4 yards per carry last year. He’s very difficult to tackle one-on-one and his rushing will be a part of whatever offense he lands in.
Jayden Daniels’ Weaknesses
While his 2023 season was undeniably impressive, Daniels was a fifth-year breakout who will turn 24 years old during his rookie season. He had just one season of high-level production under his belt, and concerns over his pocket presence remain. According to Football Insights, Daniels had a 24.5% pressure-to-sack rate last year, the third-highest of any Round 1 or 2 quarterback since 2016.
While Daniels’ rushing is certainly overwhelmingly positive in his profile, there are some concerns about the types of hits he takes. Daniels took some vicious hits throughout last season, spending time on the sideline in multiple games, and his durability will be called into question if he can’t learn how to protect himself better.
Finally, I have concerns about Daniels’ one-read-and-run tendency. It’s not to say that he can’t read the full field and make progressions, but it doesn’t show up as consistently on his tape as I’d like to see. He has plenty of arm strength and velocity, but utilizing the full field and throwing with anticipation is crucial to playing quarterback at the next level.
Pressure to sack in college and overall EPA per dropback in the NFL.
P2S well above 20% is suspect, Burrow pretty much the only exception (Lamar 20.4%, Baker 20.3%).
Biggest 🚩 with Jayden Daniels (24.5%). pic.twitter.com/SpHzkgEIeX
— Football Insights 📊 (@fball_insights) March 20, 2024
Best Team Fit
Daniels will be maximized with a team that weaponizes his mobility, utilizing a zone-read and RPO-heavy scheme where he has the freedom to run. Many have made the connection to Kliff Kingsbury, the new Commanders’ offensive coordinator, for this reason. Kingsbury’s Air Raid offense will create plenty of space for Daniels to utilize his legs and make easy reads to receivers in one-on-one situations.
An underrated schematic fit for Daniels is with the Raiders, although it would likely require Las Vegas to execute a trade-up, which would come with a hefty cost. The Raiders hired new offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, who previously coached Justin Fields in an offense maximizing a mobile quarterback with deep passing acumen. Las Vegas’s head coach, Antonio Pierce, was an assistant coach with Arizona State while Daniels was there and has spoken glowingly about him.
Betting Odds
NFL Draft betting markets can vary widely across different sportsbooks, so always have multiple outs before placing a bet. Daniels is currently the favorite to be the Number 2 pick at the time of writing before we head into his pro day. FanDuel has the lowest price available at the moment with -110 odds on Daniels to be selected Number 2, while Caesars has him priced at -155. These odds have dropped this week, especially with J.J. McCarthy picking up steam in the betting markets.
DraftKings is the only sportsbook offering odds on a specific team to draft Daniels. Still, that market could provide some value if you believe the Commanders will go in a different direction with the Number 2 pick. Betting on Daniels at +600 odds to be selected by the Vikings makes sense, as they’re primed for a trade-up for a quarterback. You can also find the Raiders at +1000 to draft Daniels, which makes plenty of sense given the scheme fit and his connection to Pierce.
I’d pass on betting Daniels to be the Number 2 pick, even if you’re getting close to even money. If you’re looking for a bet right now, I’d recommend a 0.25-unit flier on the Raiders to draft Daniels at +1000 on DraftKings. Watch out for any odds movement after Daniels’ pro day, and don’t forget that Drake Maye’s pro day takes place on Thursday, which could also be a catalyst for further movement in the betting markets.
