It is time to place a bet on Jayden Daniels to be the second overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.
Rumors are swirling that LSU's Heisman-winning quarterback, Jayden Daniels, is emerging as the clear second-overall pick, separating from Drake Maye as the second-best quarterback.
Draft evaluators have been all over Daniels, believing his skillset can translate to the NFL level more quickly. Dan Orlovsky, Daniel Jeremiah, etc., everyone has been hyping up Daniels.
I'm often skeptical of early mock drafts from talent evaluators and NFL pundits. But, notably, these analysts haven't wavered on Daniels — they believe through and through that he's the second-best quarterback in the draft.
That said, I value information from NFL insiders more. These reporters aren't watching tape and giving opinions; they speak to team sources and report on direct information.
This week, ESPN leading NFL insider Adam Schefter appeared on a Washington Commanders podcast and told fans that they can feel comfortable buying Daniels jerseys. He also mentioned feeling strongly about Maye coming off the board after Daniels and Caleb Williams.
NFL.com analyst Peter Schrager also released his official mock draft, again mocking Daniels to the Commanders with the second pick. Over the past five years, Schrager has the most accurate mock drafts of any NFL reporter/evaluator/insider. Last season, he mocked the first round almost perfectly, missing only one pick.
If he's picking Daniels as the second-overall pick, I'm buying Daniels as the second-overall pick.
The Commanders are taking a quarterback with the second pick. They've already traded Sam Howell to the Seahawks and signed veteran Marcus Mariota, clearing the quarterback room for an incoming starter. They also hired Kliff Kingsbury as the offensive coordinator, likely asking him to develop a rookie quarterback into a bonafide NFL starter.
But it's only now becoming clear that Daniels is the consensus second-best quarterback in the draft.
Draft odds are tricky to evaluate. It's an information game. Daniels' draft betting numbers are correlated directly to the rumors surrounding him.
At the time of writing, Daniels to be the second overall pick is priced at -210 on FanDuel, implying a 67% probability.
However, considering the sources coming in and their historical records, the price feels like a bargain.
I wouldn't be surprised to see the number continue rising. However, if rumors come out in the opposite direction, the value of our position could quickly diminish.
That said, I project this as one of the more substantial +EV positions in the NFL Draft markets. I recommend banking on Daniels at the current number.
Pick: No. 2 Overall Pick — Jayden Daniels (-210, FanDuel)
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