I was digging through the NFL draft betting markets this week and stumbled upon an entertaining set of wagers.
Team first position drafted markets gives us all sorts of topics to dive into.
Let’s do that for three squads, picking between 10 and 29.
New York Jets: No. 10 Overall
It’s all about Aaron Rogers in East Rutherford.
With their first-round draft choice, the Jets will either draft an offensive lineman to protect him or a weapon he can throw to.
I’m banking on the latter.
Specifically, I’m banking on the Jets selecting legendary Georgia tight end Brock Bowers.
And why wouldn’t they? Bowers is a unicorn game-changing player with a unique combination of size, explosiveness, speed, catch radius and YAC ability.
The Jets have already committed resources to the line, signing Tyron Smith from Dallas and Morgan Moses from Baltimore at both tackle spots. Both ranked in the top 10 among tackles in PFF’s grades last year. Throw in fourth-year guard Alijah Vera-Tucker, and New York’s front five looks fine.
Instead, the Jets need a receiver – most likely somebody who can create mismatches out of the slot. Garrett Wilson put up another 1,000-yard season behind 95 catches, but the next two most productive receivers were tight end Tyler Conklin (621 yards on 61 receptions) and running back Breece Hall (591 yards on 76 receptions).
The draft class features tremendous receivers, but I’m not expecting Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers or Rome Odunze to fall to the Jets. Regarding other listed wideouts, the choices include Brian Thomas Jr. and Adondai Mitchell, and neither deserves to be picked in the top 10.
But Bowers isn’t your typical tight end. He’s more of a George Kittle or Travis Kelce type – a walking mismatch who can line up anywhere on the field, get open and catch everything (career 4.4% drop rate at Georgia).
In other words, he’s exactly what Rodgers and the Jets need, and he boasts enough high-upside talent to be taken with this draft capital.
All the analysts agree. Vegas Refund has tracked 31 mock drafts across the industry, and 23 have the Jets selecting Bowers. Peter Schrager posted his official mock on Tuesday, and he has the Jets selecting Bowers.
Yet, the markets still favor the Jets selecting an offensive lineman with their first pick, with FanDuel listing that option at +130 and DraftKings at +120.
But I’m betting on the mock draft market and the obvious fit.
As an aside: If you can find a Bowers to Jets line better than these +185 odds offered at FanDuel, I highly recommend taking that instead.
Pick: Tight End (+185 at FanDuel)
Los Angeles Rams: No. 19 Overall
I’m fading the mock draft market with the Rams.
Everyone believes the Rams will select a defensive lineman or edge to replace Aaron Donald. That’s the obvious pick, mainly because the Rams need help on the defensive side of the ball; they ranked seventh in offensive DVOA but 22nd in defensive DVOA last season.
But that’s not how Sean McVay or Les Snead think. And that’s not what I’m hearing from our Action Network sources.
Let’s start with Snead.
The Rams haven’t had their first-round pick since 2016. However, Snead has made seven first-round picks since he took over as the GM in (once upon a time) St. Louis. He selected four offensive players in the opening round, most recently taking Todd Gurley in 2015 and Jared Goff in 2016.
McVay took over as the head coach in 2017, meaning he’s overseen seven drafts with Snead. The Rams have taken an offensive player with their top pick in six of the seven, including four consecutive.
| Year | Round | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 1 | DT Michael Brockers |
| 2013 | 1 | WR Tavon Austin |
| 2014 | 1 | OL Greg Robinson |
| 2015 | 1 | RB Todd Gurley |
| 2016 | 1 | QB Jared Goff |
| 2017 | 2 | TE Gerald Everett |
| 2018 | 3 | OL Joe Notebloom |
| 2019 | 2 | S Taylor Rapp |
| 2020 | 2 | RB Cam Akers |
| 2021 | 2 | WR Tutu Atwell |
| 2022 | 3 | OL Logan Bruss |
| 2023 | 2 | OL Steve Avila |
McVay always wants to take offense with his first pick, whether as a preference or as part of a larger strategy. Schrager is hearing the same thing. He wrote in his official mock draft:
“I’ll go on record with something of a guarantee here: If the Rams do not trade back, you better believe Sean McVay’s first-ever first-round selection will be an offensive player.”
Schrager mocked Oklahoma tackle Tyler Guyton in this spot, and I’m going to ride with that, betting the Rams select an offensive lineman to open their draft.
The mock draft community and markets are positive the Rams are looking toward the D-line with their first pick, shooting the price up to -115 at FanDuel and -180 at DraftKings. Also, 26 of Vegas Refund’s 31 tracked mocks have the Rams taking a defensive lineman, specifically Byron Murphy or Laiatu Latu.
But I’m trusting my information and taking the great odds we’re getting for the Rams to draft an offensive player.
The Rams were a strong run-blocking squad in 2023 (sixth in adjusted line yards) but could’ve improved in pass protection (20th in PFF’s pass block grades). The right side of the line is strong behind Kevin Dotson and Rob Havenstein, but Matthew Stafford’s blind side could use some extra protection.
Adding someone like Guyton might be a perfect fit. He’s a project, given he only made 15 career starts at Oklahoma. However, his physical tools and fundamentals provide a high ceiling, and he can play at either tackle spot. The Rams don’t need a day-one star on the line, so they could afford to draft Guyton and his steep learning curve – or some other offensive lineman.
However, I might even sprinkle some cash on McVay to snag a wide receiver at juicy plus-money odds. He will always look toward twitchy offensive players with his higher picks.
Pick: Offensive Lineman (+200 at FanDuel); Sprinkle Wide Receiver (+1400 at FanDuel)
Detroit Lions: No. 29 Overall
The Lions need pass defenders. Period.
The Lions ranked 25th in EPA per Dropback allowed and 30th in PFF’s Coverage grades last year. They folded in the second half of the NFC Championship, allowing Brock Purdy to complete 65% of his passes for 270 yards in a 17-point second-half comeback effort.
The Lions’ top two cornerbacks are currently Emmanuel Moseley and Carlton Davis III. Aidan Hutchison recorded 11.5 sacks last year, but they’re a tad short on edge depth aside from that.
The Lions need pass defenders — period.
So, I’m looking at two prominent areas of need in Detroit: cornerbacks and pass rushers.
Among Vegas Refund’s 31 tracked mock drafts, 41% have the Lions drafting a cornerback, implying around +144 fair odds. Meanwhile, 31% have them taking a defensive lineman or edge defender, implying around +222 fair odds.
We’re getting reasonable prices around the markets on two obvious first-round position choices for Detroit.
Regarding corners, Cooper DeJean, Kool-Aid McKinstry or Nate Wiggins would fit.
DeJean is an intelligent, versatile, uber-athletic defensive back with an excellent feel for coverage, which he credits to his time playing quarterback in high school. He’s good in every coverage scheme – zone, man, press, mirror, on-ball, off-ball, whatever – and combines that with unbelievable tackling in the run game. Per PFF, DeJean surrendered zero touchdowns in 338 coverage snaps in 2023 while missing only five of his 34 attempted tackles (12%).
Basically, put DeJean anywhere in the secondary. He has the instincts, physical tools and football attributes to be a first-year NFL starter.
Also, he can play special teams as a gunner or returner. How fun!
Meanwhile, McKinstry was often considered the best cornerback in college this past season, although he finished fourth among Power Five corners in PFF’s grades in 2023. He is a smooth athlete with length and a high IQ, which all should translate to the NFL level in his rookie season.
I also love his recovery speed and ball-swatting ability. Even when his receiver generates space, he’s not open for long.
The Athletic scouted Wiggins higher than the former two, although I’m slightly lower. PFF graded him as the Power Five’s 23rd-best corner, and his diminutive frame could be a problem against bigger NFL wideouts (he stands between 170 and 185 pounds).
That said, Wiggins is crazy fast (4.28 40-yard dash) with excellent awareness and on-ball coverage skills. He allowed only 18 catches on 41 targets this past season (44%), with two interceptions and four PBUs.
I think one of these three should fall to the Lions at 29, and they’d be wise to select any of them. However, Dan Campbell has other options — specifically on the defensive line.
The Ringer has mocked edge rusher Darius Robinson to the Lions at 29. Robinson is a big-framed pass rusher with impressive athleticism (35-inch vertical jump, 75th percentile) and a high motor.
There’s a shot the Lions snag Chop Robinson. Three of Vegas Refund’s 31 tracked mocks have the explosive Penn State pass rusher falling this low, although I doubt he does.
Regardless, I fully expect the Lions to draft pass defense in the first round, and I’m willing to bank on that with two wagers I project value on.
Pick: Cornerback (+145 at FanDuel); Defensive Line/Edge (+300 at DraftKings)
