The first round of the NFL Draft was a good night to love offense.
A record 14 consecutive offensive players were taken to start the draft, literally double the most ever at the top of a draft. Tells you a little about the direction the league is headed, and just about any other draft, that would have been the story of the night.
But the quarterbacks are the story of the 2024 NFL Draft.
The Vikings had a clear plan and executed it. They got their quarterback in J.J. McCarthy.
It's much harder to sell the Falcons taking Michael Penix Jr. at No. 8 or the Broncos picking Bo Nix at No. 12.
Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, and Drake Maye started off the draft as expected, and then J.J. McCarthy started to slip. There weren't four straight QBs, no trade up to No. 5, no McCarthy to the Giants at No. 6. The top four went as expected, the Chargers got their lineman and the Giants took their playmaker for Daniel Jones.
But then the Falcons made one of the most stunning top-10 picks in recent memory, selecting Washington's Michael Penix Jr. with the eighth pick of the draft just months after signing free agent Kirk Cousins for $180 million.
Then two picks later, we got our first trade of the night as the Vikings moved up one spot to get the franchise QB they'd long been linked to in J.J. McCarthy, and two picks after that, the Broncos took Bo Nix at No. 12.
And just like that, the 2024 NFL Draft had tied the all-time record for quarterbacks taken in a single first round with six QBs — all in the top 12 picks!
It's an historic night for quarterbacks — and a shocking one. Quarterback is the most important position in sports, and those fourth, fifth, and sixth QBs always gain steam in mock drafts and betting markets in the weeks leading up to the draft, but those names almost always slip back into the second and third rounds once the actual draft finally arrives.
It's unusual and historic for quarterbacks to fly off the board like this.
When McCarthy became the draft's QB5 at No. 10, that made this just the fifth draft ever with five first-round quarterbacks, and the first ever with five in the top 10. When Nix was selected two spots later, that tied the all-time record, set back in 1983's legendary QB draft that included John Elway, Dan Marino, and Jim Kelly.
Now 2024 will forever be linked to that 1983 draft — no pressure, guys.
If even one of the six QBs selected tonight has the career of any of those three guys, it will be a wild success.
Heck, Tony Eason started a Super Bowl for the Patriots, and Ken O'Brien made a couple of Pro Bowls and threw for over 25,000 yards. Only Todd Blackledge was an outright bust.
Every one of those six teams that took a quarterback tonight would leap at the chance to have this QB class stack up to 1983. Two in three chance of starting a Super Bowl someday? Sign them up.
So why does it feel like the 2024 QB draft class will only ever be compared in jest to that incredible 1983 class?
Williams, Daniels, and Maye look like outstanding prospects. They're likely all top-five picks in just about any draft. Much has been written about them, and plenty more will be said in the days to come.
For most of the college football season, Caleb Williams and Drake Maye were atop most draft boards as debates raged about which quarterback, if any, would emerge as QB3. At the time, it looked unlikely that there would be any other quarterback selected even in the top 50 of this top-heavy draft.
By the second half of the season, Jayden Daniels had emerged as the clear QB3, or higher for some, but it still felt like a big drop to the rest of the class. J.J. McCarthy was always one of the next names on the list with a winning pedigree and plenty of tools, but scouts barely even got a look at him in a run-heavy Michigan offense. Michael Penix and Bo Nix were barely on draft radars at all.
Now, shockingly, all of them are top-12 draft picks. It's a quarterbacks' world, and we're all just living in it.
There's a little secret to the plan for these teams. The best way to NFL success is to find your Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen or Joe Burrow. Easier said than done, but at least three teams think they have a shot after tonight.
The second-best path to success is drafting a young, viable quarterback, getting him on a cheap rookie-scale deal for four or five years, and spending a couple million on a QB instead of the going rate of $30-to-$40 million for a middle-of-the-road starter, using that money on multiple other good starters instead.
That's the path the 49ers inadvertently took en route to a monster season under Mr.-Irrelevant-turned-MVP-candidate Brock Purdy. That's what the Dolphins did, surrounding Tua Tagovailoa on a rookie-scale deal with a team of speedsters and plenty of talent on defense. Jalen Hurts and Joe Burrow led teams to the Super Bowl on rookie deals the last few years. You get the picture.
The No. 1 goal of every NFL team is to find that superstar quarterback.
The No. 2 goal is making it work when you can't.
And even though six teams drafted a quarterback on Thursday night, there's a stark difference in plans between the first three and the last three.
Bears fans have every reason to believe Caleb Williams will become the best QB in franchise history — the bar isn't very high. There's probably not necessarily the case for Washington or, certainly, New England, but all three franchises are dreaming of the Elway or Marino outcome.
The Falcons, Vikings, and Broncos feel like they're just hoping to find Ken O'Brien or Tony Eason for a few years.
Minnesota traded up for a second draft pick weeks ago, and many expected the Vikings to use that pick and maybe more to move up for a QB. Instead, the Vikings gave up the cost of the 109th pick, per the Fitzgerald-Spielberger draft chart, to move up one spot and secure the guy many thought they coveted all along.
Some Vikings fans will chafe at the pick — myself among them. I called McCarthy the draft version of Kirk Cousins, a good enough solution at QB akin to kicking the can four years down the road. So the Vikings moved on from Kirk Cousins to take Draft Kirk Cousins. Neat.
Still, Minnesota's roster is ready to win now, and McCarthy steps into about as good a QB situation as you could hope for as a rookie. He's got three great options to throw two, a pair of bookend tackles, a veteran RB in Aaron Jones, and excellent coaching. The Vikings also had a great defense under Brian Flores and just used that extra first-rounder to nab Dallas Turner, a player many rated as the top defender in the draft.
Minnesota is about to pay Justin Jefferson a heap of money, money it now has with a cheap Cousins Lite QB, and the Vikings have a clear plan in place with Sam Darnold signed on the cheap for one season, giving McCarthy a runway if he's not ready to start immediately.
The other two picks, though…
The Nix selection reeks of desperation by Sean Payton. Denver had no real quarterback after moving on from Russell Wilson (and arguably before?), and Payton probably didn't have any real plan of sticking around over the long haul for a loser team with no QB in a brutal division.
So why not take a quarterback? Nix is an absolutely perplexing pick, the third-oldest first-round QB in NFL history who played in a gimmick system that effectively turned him into a point guard, one that threw over a third of his passes behind the line of scrimmage. I rated Nix as a career backup and third-round prospect, a Gardner Minshew type. The Broncos took him 12th. That's a pretty tough sell.
But hey, what does Payton care? If this doesn't work out, he can just retire again and leave the Broncos in ruins, still having never really replaced Peyton Manning at QB.
Michael Penix Jr., though, was the night's absolute stunner.
Is Penix a first-round prospect? Debatable.
Some analysts love Penix's deep ball, his athletic profile, and his ability to avoid sacks. Others like me question his age (24 in two weeks) and injury history, along with his accuracy and high-end arm talent. Penix played six years in college and was never once talked about as anything even remotely resembling a top-10 draft pick until this season.
Heck, he wasn't talked about as a top-10 prospect all season either. That only happened in the weeks, maybe only in the days, leading up to the draft.
Any team can fall in love with a quarterback, though, and maybe Penix will be great.
But will the Falcons ever even find out?
Barely a month ago, Atlanta made the biggest splash of free agency when it signed Kirk Cousins to a four-year $180-million deal. The first two of those years are fully guaranteed, and Cousins is a top 10-to-15 QB.
I labeled the Falcons as one of the most QB-ready rosters in football, and apparently, the Falcons agreed — twice.
Now the Falcons have spent a top-10 pick in four consecutive years on the offense, plus $180 million in quarterback money to boot. And what does Atlanta have to show for it?
An aging QB coming off a torn ACL and a backup QB with a history of two torn ACLs and two season-ending shoulder injuries. At least the Falcons have two healthy knees between their QBs … ?
Unless Cousins can't come back from injury or just isn't the same guy post-ACL — in which case, it should be said, that the Falcons are clear losers regardless of anything on draft night — it's really difficult to imagine any scenario other than Cousins starting for the team the next two seasons.
After that, Atlanta can move on from the guy it just signed for $10 million in dead money and, finally, turn the keys over to then-26-year-old Penix after two years riding the pine.
Remember, the goal in the NFL is to have a superstar win-on-your-own QB — you know, the thing Kirk Cousins decidedly is not. The Falcons already paid a windfall to ensure they will not have that.
But if you can't have that, the next goal is to lock in a cheap, young QB on a rookie contract and build around him — and now the Falcons didn't do that either!
Maybe Atlanta was galvanized by Jordan Love's success this year in Green Bay, looking like one of those true elite QBs after three years of waiting behind Aaron Rodgers. But those years wasted nearly the entire cheap rookie-scale contract, and they may have also cost the Packers a chance at a Super Bowl considering the player they might have had in Love's place instead.
Do the Falcons just love Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts, so much that they're desperate to free up money to sign them to fat extensions in two and three years, just to create a sweet, sweet two-year window for rookie-scale 26-year-old Penix to finally take starter snaps with all those expensive weapons around him?
The entire thing is baffling. Given the context of the Cousins signing a month ago, it's one of the dumbest, most confusing draft picks in recent memory. It's Jordan Love when you have Aaron Rodgers, only with the No. 8 pick in the draft.
Whatever it was, it's now part of history — 2024 and 1983 will go down in history together as the two most QB-heavy drafts ever.
That's what Williams, Daniels, Maye, Penix, McCarthy, and Nix will be asked to live up to now.
Good luck, guys.
