The first round of the NFL Draft always produces a few winners. But at the same time, some teams close Thursday night out on the losing side of things.
Whether a team is a clear winner like the Chicago Bears or a clear loser like the Atlanta Falcons, every team falls somewhere on that spectrum.
So, let's dive into which teams and players ended Thursday as winners and which came out of the first round as losers.
Winners
Chicago Bears
When you have the No. 1 pick in the draft, you’re probably already well on your way to being in the winners’ column. A new era begins in Chicago with Caleb Williams as the franchise quarterback and Rome Odunze as the young playmaker.
Odunze was my WR2 in this class behind Marvin Harrison Jr., and he’d be the WR1 in most draft classes. The Washington product combined highlight-reel contested-catch ability with supreme route-running as one of the most well-rounded receiver prospects in recent memory.
He’ll share the field with DJ Moore and Keenan Allen, and new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron has to be giddy about the potential of this group.
Chicago’s defense was well on its way last year, ranking fifth in EPA/play over the second half of the regular season. Now, they have the offensive personnel to match.
We should see immediate success for this team, and I’m buying them to make the playoffs at -104 at FanDuel.
Minnesota Vikings
The Bears weren’t the only NFC North team to make out extremely well in Thursday’s proceedings. The Vikings joined their divisional rival with two blue-chip talents in quarterback J.J. McCarthy and pass-rusher Dallas Turner.
McCarthy finished his Michigan career with a 27-1 record as a starter and a National Championship, and scouts have raved about his poise in the pocket, anticipatory throws and untapped athletic potential.
Having just turned 21, McCarthy has a ton of upside in his developmental trajectory, and it’s hard to draw up a better landing spot than Minnesota with Justin Jefferson leading an elite skill position group.
Turner was seen by many as the top defensive talent in this class, and the Vikings benefitted from a historic slide for the entire defensive crop this year.
Turner is raw in terms of his pass-rush skill set, but he possesses elite athleticism and has a tremendous future with the right coaching. Putting him across from free agency signing Jonathan Greenard will be tremendous for Brian Flores’ defense.
McCarthy and Turner will likely need some time to develop into high-impact NFL starters, but this franchise landed two young, high-upside, blue-chip talents without having to give up next season's first-round pick. That's worth celebrating.
QB Bo Nix
While I didn’t have a first-round draft grade on Bo Nix, there has been constant buzz linking him to the Broncos throughout the pre-draft process.
Nix has flaws, but his accuracy and anticipation are consistent, and he rarely makes negative plays, finishing with the lowest turnover-worthy play rate in the country last season, per PFF.
Nix hasn’t consistently shown an ability to make difficult downfield throws — only 9.5% of his throws last season at Oregon went into tight windows, and only 10% went beyond the first read. But the Ducks asked him to take layups, and he hit them consistently.
However, if there’s anyone who will know how to maximize his skill set, it’s Sean Payton. The Broncos' head coach has raved about his intelligence and decision-making.
After working with Russell Wilson last year, who constantly put the ball in harm’s way and struggled to make quick decisions, Nix will be a breath of fresh air in the offense.
Arizona Cardinals
After much discussion about a potential trade down, the Cardinals stayed put and drafted Marvin Harrison Jr. at No. 4.
General manager Monti Ossenfort made the right decision. Arizona had 11 draft picks in this year’s class — tied for the most of any team — and trading down to acquire more capital would have had diminishing returns at a certain point.
Many industry experts ranked Harrison as the top overall prospect in this draft, and Reception Perception's Matt Harmon wrote that MHJ was one of the best receivers he’s ever charted. Harmon wrote that Harrison had a 16.8% double-covered rate, the highest he had ever charted, and he cleared the 80th percentile mark in Success Rate against man, zone and press coverage.
The Cardinals also came away with Darius Robinson, a versatile player who can play up and down the defensive line. After dominating in the Senior Bowl, the Missouri product was one of the biggest pre-draft risers leading up to tonight.
Ultimately, the Cardinals landed a foundational piece on both sides of the ball.
Losers
Atlanta Falcons
It’s difficult to remember the last time a draft pick had me as slack-jawed as the Falcons’ selection of Michael Penix Jr. at No. 8 overall. Atlanta just gave Kirk Cousins a four-year, $180 million contract this offseason, and he’s under contract through the 2027 season, after which Penix will be 28.
Head coach Raheem Morris said the team wanted to follow the “Green Bay model,” with how they handled Jordan Love, but Love was 21 when the Packers drafted him, and they spent a late first-round pick on him — not a top-10 selection.
Perhaps the Falcons are concerned with Cousins’ Achilles injury recovery, but you have to imagine they medically cleared him before signing him to the monster contract. Cousins’ agent, Mike McCartney, also confirmed that he didn’t know the draft pick was coming and didn’t find out until the Falcons were on the clock.
From Kirk Cousins’ agent Mike McCartney on the #Falcons’ selecting QB Michael Penix Jr. eighth overall. pic.twitter.com/XpIpOQn1ua
— Mike Garafolo (@MikeGarafolo) April 26, 2024
Atlanta had its choice of edge rushers in this year’s class and could have landed a talent who would significantly boost a clear problem area. The Falcons haven’t had a quality pass rush in a decade.
Instead, they spent the eighth overall pick on a backup quarterback who I didn’t even have a first-round grade on.
Penix will turn 24 next month and has had four season-ending injuries. He has difficulties managing pressure in the pocket, has inconsistent ball placement and offers very little mobility. I would've had closer to a third-round grade on the Washington quarterback.
None of this makes any sense to me.
Carolina Panthers
I have difficulty coming to terms with a first-round grade for Xavier Legette. According to Matt Harmon's Reception Perception profile, the South Carolina product is a 6-foot-1, 221-pound X-receiver who finished with a sub-20th percentile Success Rate against man and press defense.
Perhaps Legette has upside as a big-bodied slot receiver, but his raw route-running begins a troubling production profile, and he just turned 23.
Legette has been through a lot and seems like a great kid, so I don’t want to bash him too much, but he simply doesn’t have the profile of a first-round pick.
This wide receiver class is deep, with players like Adonai Mitchell, Ladd McConkey, Roman Wilson and Troy Franklin still available, among many others.
I disagree with an evaluation of Legette that would make him worth giving up draft capital to trade up.
Defensive Players
Is the defensive player dead in the modern NFL? We heard rumblings that this year’s draft could be historic in terms of the number of offensive players taken before the first defensive player. It blew through those expectations, as we saw a whopping 14 offensive players taken before the first defensive talent came off the board at No. 15.
While this class isn’t top-heavy on the defensive side of the ball, new Eagles cornerback Quinyon Mitchell and Colts edge rusher Laiatu Latu are players who can come in and be immediate difference-makers for their teams.
We finished with just nine total defensive players selected, tying the record set in 1973.
Is this a referendum on the direction of the league? The NFL banned the hip-drop tackle this offseason, making it even more difficult for defensive players to find success, and we’ve been trending more and more toward a softer league predicated on offensive finesse rather than smash-mouth trench play.
It will be fascinating to follow this emerging trend in the coming seasons.
