I already made a bet earlier this year on the Panthers, and I have a couple more futures that I’m ready to put down.
Let’s get into two win totals that I’m betting with the regular season right around the corner.
Broncos Over 5.5 Wins (-128, FanDuel)
I believe the Broncos are priced too low in the market in 2024, for three main reasons.
1) The Sean Payton factor: Payton-coached teams are 9-5-2 (64.3%) toward the over on their win total in his career. He has led his team to at least seven wins in all 16 as an NFL head coach.
2) The drop-off from Russell Wilson to Bo Nix is overstated.
Wilson’s 26-to-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio last season says much more about Payton’s abilities as an offensive coach than Wilson’s abilities as a quarterback. Wilson is the guy who has been cooked ever since he left Seattle and was in danger of losing the starting job to Justin Fields this offseason. Payton is the guy who, prior to coming to Denver, was last seen leading the Saints to a winning record in 2021 despite starting Jameis Winston, Taysom Hill, Trevor Siemia and Ian Book at quarterback.
After the Broncos started 0-3 last season with Wilson attempting 34.7 passes per game, Payton effectively hid him going forward, with the veteran averaging just 28.7 attempts per game en route to a 7-4 record the rest of the way. Nix had a strong preseason, going 23-of-30 (76.7%) for 211 yards (7.0 yards per attempt) with two touchdowns and no interceptions while adding 6-29-0 rushing and earning the sixth-highest Pro Football Focus (PFF) grade (80.4) among 56 qualified quarterbacks.
The biggest reason for optimism surrounding Nix is that he is much better suited to run Payton’s offense than Wilson. Whereas Wilson held the ball too long (his 3.07-second average time to throw ranked 40th of 45 qualified passers) and took too many sacks (his 20.6% pressure-to-sack rate ranked 32nd of 45), Nix was in the top 10 in the nation last season in both average time to throw (2.44 seconds) and pressure-to-sack rate (7.6%). Nix also led the nation with a 1.0% turnover-worthy play rate.
Moreover, despite holding the ball for too long, Wilson ranked 40th or worse in both short attempt (0-9 yards beyond LOS) rate (14.8%) and intermediate attempt (10-19 yards beyond LOS) rate (38.0%) – marks that Nix eclipsed in both his final college season and the 2024 preseason. In other words, there’s a good chance Nix can produce fewer negative plays than Wilson while opening up the playbook.
3) The Broncos were much better than 5.5 wins last season and didn’t get significantly worse. The Broncos were 8-9 last season, and while they did overperform relative to their Pythagorean expectation of seven wins, they would still need to decline by two full wins to go under a win total of 5.5. Going from Wilson to Nix should have a minimal impact. Jerry Jeudy was traded, and Greg Dulcich is back from injury, Josh Reynolds was added in free agency, and Troy Franklin and Devaughn Vele were added in the draft, so the pass-catching corps shouldn’t net much of a loss, if any. Center Lloyd Cushenberry III was let go, but four of five starting offensive lineman return, and the unit still ranks above average in PFF grades entering the season. Safety Justin Simmons (67.9, 42 of 95) was released, but Brandon Jones (75.4,16 of 95) was added.
The Broncos may have been even better than seven Pythagorean wins when you consider that, while their point differential was -56, -50 came in one game (their 70-20 loss to the Dolphins). Otherwise, they were essentially a .500 team.
Especially considering Payton’s track record, the 2024 Broncos are effectively being priced near their floor and are a strong bet to go over their win total.
Bet to: Over 6.5 (+100)
Giants Under 6.5 Wins (-135, DraftKings)
The Giants went 6-11 last season, but their point differential of -141 suggests their true performance level was that of a 4.5-win team. That means the Giants would have to improve by 2.5 wins to go over their win total, which history tells us is unlikely. Over the past two decades, teams that outperform their point-differential-implied win total (a.k.a. Pythagorean win total) by at least one victory are 61-83-5 (42.3%) toward the over the following season, and teams that outperform their Pythagorean win total by at least 1.5 are 32-52-2 (38.1%) toward the over the following season.
New York’s headlining change on offense was drafting Malik Nabers fifth overall, but using its first round pick on Nabers meant passing on quarterback and running it back with Daniel Jones coming off a torn ACL. While Nabers will be the best wide receiver Jones has ever had, the departure of Saquon Barkely means defenses will be able to sit on the pass more than ever, and Jones’ splits without Barkley are not pretty (via the RotoViz Game Splits App):
- With Barkley: 6.74 YPA, 1.21 TD/game, 0.53 INT/game
- Without Barkley: 6.21 YPA, 0.73 TD/game, 0.91 INT/game
Head coach Brian Daboll wants Jones to throw deep more often this season, but the only winning season of Jones’ career came in 2022 (9-6-1), when he had the lowest deep passing rate of his career (4.9%, 39th of 40 qualified quarterbacks). Asking Jones to hold the ball longer and throw downfield more is asking for trouble in the form of a return of the interception and fumbling issues that have plagued him throughout much of his career. There’s a reason that, outside of 2022, Jones is a combined 13-30 as a starter.
Defensively, the headliner was trading for edge rusher Brian Burns, which in theory gives them an elite pass-rushing duo with Kayvon Thidbodeaux on the other side. However, that may not necessarily be the case. Past pressure data is more predictive than past sack data when predicting future sacks, so it’s somewhat worrisome that Thidbodeaux finished tied for 12th in sacks (11.5) but was tied for 67th in pressures (43), while Burns finished tied for 37th in sacks (8.0) andr 80th in pressures (40).
Going all-in on Burns meant neglecting the secondary. By trading their 2024 second-round pick for Burns and signing him to a massive deal (five years, $141 million), the Giants had limited resources to address the secondary. They failed to re-sign Xavier McKinney, a former early second-round pick who was a top-five graded safety at PFF last season. Their starting safeties project as former Day Three picks Jason Pinnock and Dane Belton. At cornerback, Deonte Banks is the only noteworthy name, and he graded outside the top-100 cornerbacks at PFF last season.
Ultimately, while the Giants have some good pieces, the team is too fragile. The passing game projects as one of the league’s worst even with Nabers expected to play up to his top-five pedigree. The offensive line projects as one of the league’s worst even with stud left tackle Andrew Thomas. The secondary projects as one of the league’s worst, even if Banks takes a step forward. The pass rush will rely on Burns and Thidbodeaux to play a ton of snaps, and if either of them go down, it exacerbates issues in the secondary.
Given the track record of the Giants’ front office, it’s hard to have confidence that the roster they’ve assembled will exceed expectations. As Assistant GM to Brandon Beane of the Bills from 2017 to 2021, Joe Schoen had the benefit of helping to build around Josh Allen for the final four years of his tenure, but he hasn’t shown the ability to adequately address the quarterback position in a lead role, which has magnified his underwhelming returns from his 2022 and especially 2023 draft classes, as well as his questionable salary-cap decisions (paying Jones in 2023, spending big on a non-premium position with linebacker Bobby Okereke in 2023, paying Burns big money in 2024 instead of spreading those funds among the multiple holes on the roster, etc.).
However, Schoen’s missteps are just a symptom of what continues to be too much involvement from President John Mara, who has seen the team go 6-12-1 (33.3%) toward the over since he became President in 2005, including a 1-6 (14.2%) stretch over the past seven seasons.
To drive home just how low the floor is for this team, consider that although their win total is 6.5, lookahead lines have them favored in only two games.
Bet to: Under 6.5 (-150)
All data via Pro Football Focus unless otherwise stated.
