The NFL regular season is right around the corner, so it's time to get our NFL futures in. On "The Action Network Podcast," Brandon Anderson and Gilles Gallant went in on exotic picks. Here, we're going to recap their picks on which teams will have the best and worst records in the NFL, ranging from close to the betting favorites down to a 60-1 long shot.
Let's break down their NFL futures and exotics.
NFL Best Record Bets
Kansas City Chiefs (+750)
Brandon Anderson: This is the responsible bet if you get a number near this one. Kansas City has made six straight AFC Championship Games, has a great defense and good wide receivers to go along with Patrick Mahomes and head coach Andy Reid.
Helping this bet is that the AFC West is not a good division. The Broncos are a bottom-five team, while the Raiders are OK defensively but have no quarterback and a head coach who I'm not high on. The Chargers, meanwhile, have a solid spine in with quality at quarterback, on the offensive line and at head coach, but a lack of weapons hurts them, as does the lack of home-field advantage against the Chiefs.
I have the Chiefs projected for 12.1 wins this season and no other team above 11.2. I also think K.C. is worth a shout to go 6-0 in divisional play at +375.
Detroit Lions (+900)
Gilles Gallant: I went back and forth between the Lions and Eagles before finally landing on Detroit.
The Lions are low-key loaded after a solid offseason with an emphasis on defense. Cornerback Carlton Davis, defensive end Marcus Davenport and defensive tackle D.J. Reader, who will start the season on the PUP list, were added to help improve the team's key weakness.
Detroit has a top-ranked offensive line with offensive coordinator Ben Johnson still running the show, highlighted by wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown and two strong RBs in David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs.
The elephant in the room is Jared Goff. He has a well-earned reputation for being better indoors compared to playing outside. In five outdoor games last season, Goff's completion rate, touchdown-per-pass rate and yards-per-attempt rate were much lower. Playing indoors, Goff put up top-five-QB numbers.
Well, Goff is in luck. From Week 10 onward this season, the Lions only play twice outside — and just one of those games is in cold weather (Chicago in Week 16 and San Francisco in Week 17).
The Lions played six outdoor games in 2022, five last season and just four this year.
Cleveland Browns (+5000)
Brandon Anderson: I'm reluctantly in on this team, I guess, which I have rated as the fourth best in the NFL behind the Chiefs, Eagles and 49ers.
The Browns are already known for being great under defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz but were unlucky in the red zone and with turnovers. Cleveland has Myles Garrett up front to create an elite pass rush and a very strong secondary.
I have Cleveland ranked as the NFL's 27th-best offense, but there are paths to a high upside. The offensive line is good and could propel a notoriously strong run game. Offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey takes charge and has a strong group of wide receivers to potentially help Deshaun Watson return to form. If Nick Chubb returns from his injury and Jerry Jeudy can fulfill his potential, this offense could be great.
The schedule also is in the Browns' favor with games that shouldn't be a trouble with them against the Raiders, Giants, Commanders, Saints, Broncos and Steelers.
I have Cleveland pegged for 10.5 wins, but I only have three at 11 or more so this bet at this number makes sense.
NFL Worst Record Bets
New York Giants (+1000)
Brandon Anderson: I have Daniel Jones ranked as the 30th-best starting quarterback in the NFL, and he's being protected by a bottom-five offensive line. Not even Malik Nabers can save this offense, which lost its most important player (Saquon Barkley) over the offseason.
Defensively, the Giants front seven is OK, but defensive coordinator Shane Bowen's scheme is a pass funnel that will invite pass attempts against the worst secondary in the NFL.
I have the Patriots, Broncos, Giants and Commanders in a tier near the bottom, but the Giants have the best odds. I'm projecting New York for 4.8 wins, which is less than half of a win off the lowest. Three of those four teams I mentioned drafted a quarterback in the first round this year, and it extends to five of my lowest seven if you include the Titans and Vikings.
Minnesota Vikings (+1200)
Gilles Gallant: The dropoff at quarterback that the Vikings are about to experience cannot be overstated.
Brandon has Darnold ranked as his 24th-best starting quarterback in the NFL, but I'm not even convinced that he'll be the Vikings starter after their Week 6 bye.
Minnesota has a brutal start to the season against two top-five defenses (according to DVOA) in the 49ers and Jets with games against the Packers and Texans sandwiched between them. Then, after that Week 6 bye, the Vikings will face the Lions, Rams, Jaguars and Colts. The Vikings' schedule was rated by Action Network's Sean Koerner as the fifth-hardest in the NFL.
If the Vikings don't beat the Giants in Week 1, it could be a while until they win. An 0-8 start is conceivable.
Los Angeles Rams (+6000)
Brandon Anderson: Let's finish with a bang.
I have the Rams rated as the sixth-worst team in the NFL, and that's not even assuming bad health.
Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp are healthy, but the offensive line is already banged up. That's not a recipe for success for a team that relies heavily on the run game and has a QB who has a history of getting banged up throughout his career.
The offense is potentially great, but the defense lost Aaron Donald and defensive coordinator Raheem Morris. I have this defense ranked as the 31st-best in the NFL. It has no real strength and will face the best offensive division in the NFL against the 49ers, Seahawks and Cardinals.
I have Los Angeles pegged for 6.8 wins, bad enough for the sixth-worst record in the NFL. There could be enough incentive for the Rams to prepare for life after Stafford if things go poorly.
