We are less than a week away from a full football onslaught as the NFL joins the college football party on Thursday night with a rematch of the AFC Championship game in Kansas City.
So, it's time to once again share my favorite preseason win totals and futures, which you'll find below. Let's get into my NFL futures.
Win Totals
If you're curious, my win totals have gone 14-4-5 (77.8%) since I started writing this piece four seasons ago.
Panthers Over 5.5 Wins (-124)
The only win total I bet early in the season was Carolina Over 4.5 wins and I'd still play it (albeit smaller) at 5.5. Bryce Young literally can't be any worse under center. He should not only take a small step forward on experience alone but also should benefit from new head coach Dave Canales, a known quarterback whisperer. Look no further than what he has previously done with Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield. I also expect a better offensive scheme that is more catered to Young's strengths and size limitations. Expect to see a much more modern offense that also gets Young out of the pocket more frequently to help compensate for his overall lack of size.
Not only should the coaching situation improve around Young, but he also has a better supporting cast after Carolina upgraded at offensive guard (a disaster position in 2023) and wide receiver with the addition of Diontae Johnson and the drafting of Xavier Legette.
The defense did suffer a bit of a talent drain in the offseason. As a result, I have major concerns about the pass rush and CB2 spot opposite Jaycee Horn. However, I really like defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero, who should squeeze the most out of this group.
I understand the Panthers only won two games last season while amazingly never holding a fourth quarter lead, but they were also unlucky in a plethora of metrics from turnovers to special teams to injuries. Positive regression looms for the Panthers, who have a very easy schedule that includes six fairly winnable games outside of the six they will play within one of the least daunting divisions in the NFL.
Seahawks Over 7.5 Wins (-150)
This is all about the hire of Mike Macdonald, who I absolutely fell in love with as a Ravens fan. His opponent-specific game plans were marvelous and should give the Seahawks an edge on a weekly basis. I expect the defense to take a significant step forward on scheme alone.
I also love the hire of offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb, whose modern pro-style scheme should make things easy for Geno Smith. However, there are certainly questions on the offensive line, which is where everything could fall apart. When will center Connor Williams be ready? Who is going to win the right guard spot? Is left guard Laken Tomlinson washed in year 10? Is right tackle Abraham Lucas even going to play this season (knee)?
However, despite my concerns, I show too much value to pass up on this wager.
There are also several underlying metrics that suggest Seattle has some positive regression coming its way after last season. This is a team to look out for in the NFC. And while I don't think the Seahawks have Super Bowl potential with Smith, I'd certainly consider dabbling in other upside bets such as MacDonald for coach of the year and even the Seahawks to win the NFC West.
Colts Under 8.5 Wins (-115)
Assuming the seasoned Colts offensive line plays more like last year than two seasons ago, the run game should be fantastic with Jonathan Taylor and the legs of Anthony Richardson. However, to me, Richardson still has major issues as a passer, specifically in the accuracy department. Opponents are going to force him to beat them with his arm and I'm not sure he's ready to do that quite yet as a quasi-rookie after playing in just four games last season before suffering an injury.
My biggest issue with the Colts comes on the other side of the ball, under defensive coordinator Gus Bradley, who is still running a very archaic and static defense that modern offenses have cracked. He's still a very heavy old Pete Carroll Cover 3 guy, a scheme that requires elite defensive backs to execute. The Colts simply don't have that on the back end outside of Kenny Moore II in the slot. With such a bleak situation at cornerback, it's puzzling to me that general manager Chris Ballard didn't go out and address that position in the offseason.
With potential major flaws in their pass offense and defense, I'll pay to make the Colts prove they can finish above .500. Remember, their win total last year was set at just 6.5 and this roster didn't get significantly better.
| Brandon Anderson's Awards Futures |
|---|
| NFL MVP |
| Offensive Player of the Year |
| Defensive Player of the Year |
| Coach of the Year |
| Offensive Rookie of the Year |
| Defensive Rookie of the Year |
Chargers Under 9 Wins (-135)
While I like the hire of Jim Harbaugh (and defensive coordinator Jesse Minter) for the long-term prospects of this franchise, it's going to take some time to build this roster to fit with what both of them want to do, which is a 180 from the previous regime on both sides of the ball. The pass catchers are extremely underwhelming and the defense has holes all over, outside of a few key star players.
Yes, the Chargers were historically unlucky last year in close games (0-7 in games decided by a field goal or less) and have an extremely manageable schedule (although not from a rest perspective) with a top-tier quarterback. However, I show too much value to pass up on the Chargers going under nine wins, especially with major depth concerns and a higher injury risk for Herbert headed into the 2024 campaign.
Buccaneers Under 7.5 Wins (+115)
All of my arrows are pointing down on the Bucs this season.
It starts with Baker Mayfield, who should regress to being the quarterback we already know him to be after a fairly fortunate season in several areas. An extremely murky situation along the interior of the offensive line could really hit hard when you consider Mayfield's splits under pressure and an already lackluster rushing attack.
I'm also not sold on the defense, which took an overall step back in the talent department.
Futures
If you're curious, these went 4-5 last season with the highlight being Lamar Jackson to win MVP at 16-1. While I don't have an MVP bet headed into 2024, I do have another future at the same price on a team led by a quarterback who could be right in the thick of the MVP discussion late in the season.
Houston Texans To Win the Super Bowl (+1600)
I'm buying stock in C.J. Stroud before it's too late, especially with an improved wide receiver room (Stefon Diggs plus a now healthy Tank Dell) and an offensive line that surely can't have any worse injury luck than last year. The sky is the limit for this offense, especially if the Texans can get any semblance of a rushing attack to complement Stroud.
On the other side of the ball, the defense could also be vastly improved after some offseason additions, specifically up front. Questions remain at linebacker, but I trust head coach DeMeco Ryans to get that position right. On the back end, I fancy the prospects of more nickel snaps for Jalen Pitre, who thrived in that role at Baylor. If Houston can find a reliable second cornerback opposite Derek Stingley, look out. I really liked both of their defensive back draft selections in Kamari Lassiter and Calen Bullock, both of whom could be day-one impact players. They also brought in some nice depth with former third-overall pick Jeff Okudah on a good buy-low contract.
I like the upside of this team, which has a top-tier quarterback (a must to win a Super Bowl in today's landscape). We may look back on this as being way too cheap in the futures market if Stroud takes another step forward after a historic rookie season.
Bengals To Win the AFC North (+165)
I think my Ravens will take a step back defensively after a historic season in which they led the league in sacks, takeaways and points — the first team to accomplish such a feat in the Super Bowl era. The staff changes (Mike Macdonald is irreplaceable and two other assistants are now coordinators elsewhere) and some personnel losses on top of some potential natural regression should equate to a step back. On the other side of the ball, I have major concerns about the offensive line, which lost three starters and will need some rookies to step up. That could ultimately hold back the offense from reaching the levels it did last season.
Elsewhere, I'm still not buying Deshaun Watson (with questions at tackle to boot), nor the quarterback situation in Pittsburgh, which also has some lingering offensive line questions it needs to answer.
That naturally leads me to the Bengals, who will benefit from both a presumably healthy Joe Burrow and a last place schedule. The defense was horrific last season and may miss D.J. Reader up front, but they upgraded the safety position, which is critical in Lou Anarumo's defense, which should lead to less miscommunication and fewer busts.
Kevin O'Connell To Win Coach of the Year (+2000)
I think O'Connell is one of the better head coaches in the league. Not only can he scheme up an offense, but he's an invaluable leader as cliche as that sounds. It's amazing what he did with Minnesota last year after Kirk Cousins went down with an injury. The quarterback situation is super dicey once again with some additional uncertainty surrounding the skill position group.
If O'Connell can guide this team with Sam Darnold at the helm to a postseason berth, I think he'll be one of the favorites to win this narrative-based award. I much prefer this bet to any upside bets on the Vikings (to make the playoffs, for example), which I don't mind given the overall coaching prowess on the sidelines with O'Connell and Brian Flores, an absolute defensive wizard.
Lastly, if you look historically, the past nine coaches to win this award entered the season with odds of 18-1 or longer. They also usually come from teams with win totals in the range where the Vikings are priced.
I also think Mike Macdonald, who I love, is a decent flier at 14-1.
Denver Broncos — Top Two in AFC West (+500)
I'm not too high on the Chargers and Raiders, so the bar might be lower than the market thinks for the Broncos to finish second in the division. I'm not overly in love with the roster, but Bo Nix is at least a good fit for what Sean Payton wants to run. He's basically a more athletic (and less rogue) version of Russell Wilson without all of the drama. And for what it's worth, Payton has never lost fewer than seven games since becoming a head coach in 2006.
There's also injury uncertainty that could work in favor of this bet. What if Justin Herbert goes down? The Chargers backup quarterback situation is bleak and Herbert will head into the season already dealing with plantar fascia. And there's always a chance Patrick Mahomes suffers an injury for the Chiefs, which would significantly alter their trajectory.
