With the regular season right around the corner, it's time to get your NFL futures in. We have you covered with all sorts of bets, ranging from player props to Super Bowl futures — one that even has the exact matchup!
Our NFL experts broke down their favorite futures and prop bets for the 2024 season on "Convince Me," where Chad Millman picked his favorite from each category.
| Table of Contents |
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| Season-Long Player Props |
| Win Totals |
| Long-Shot Futures |
| Super Bowl Bets |
NFL Season-Long Player Props
Brian Thomas Jr. Over 4.5 Receiving Touchdowns (-110)
Sean Koerner: I’m very high on Thomas and loved his landing spot with the Jaguars in the first round of this year's draft. He gives me Randy Moss vibes with a similar size and speed profile and is a downfield threat who can make contested catches. Thomas already flashed this in preseason and looked every bit as good as I expected.
Calvin Ridley led the league with 24 end-zone targets last year but is now with the Titans. I think Thomas could inherit quite a few of those targets as he can win downfield and in the red zone.
I’m also expecting Trevor Lawrence to have a breakout season in Year 5, which I think offers Thomas Jr. even more upside than people realise
I'm projecting him closer to a full TD higher and have him clearing this around 60% of the time.
Trevor Lawrence Most Passing Yards (+2100)
Simon Hunter: I'm riding the Jaguars train with Sean.
The Jaguars have the eighth-easiest schedule against opposing pass defenses this season. While the Jags lost Ridley, this might be the best group of pass catchers that Lawrence has ever played with. Evan Engram is a great option at tight end, and Jacksonville replaced Ridley with Thomas and Gabe Davis.
Also, I expect the Jaguars to be playing from behind a lot in a competitive AFC South.
Bryce Young Over 3,200.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Chris Raybon: Young only needs to average 200 yards per game for 16 games for this to hit.
Carolina massively upgraded the 2023 No. 1 pick's receiving corps this offseason by trading for Diontae Johnson and drafting WR Xavier Leggette and TE Jatavion Sanders. Those moves allow Adam Thielen to move into the slot.
Also, the backfield will be improved for Young. Chuba Hubbard is entering the season as the starter with rookie Jonathan Brooks lurking behind him.
Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield have put up the best passing stats of their careers over the last two seasons when Dave Canales was a coach for their team. Canales is now the head coach in Carolina, so I'm expecting much more from Young.
NFL Win Totals
Steelers Under 8.5 Wins (-130)
Sean Koerner: I realize Tomlin has never had a losing season. Usually, that would be enough for me to shy away from betting a Steelers win total under, but there are too many reasons for me to bet it this season.
Pittsburgh was first in our Luck Rankings last year, as well as the luck model I have used to fuel my initial ratings for my win total projections this year. Last season, the Steelers faced the backup quarterback in four of their six divisional games. It's highly unlikely they're that fortunate this season.
Also, are we sure that Russell Wilson and/or Justin Fields are much of an upgrade over Kenny Pickett?
Finally, Pittsburgh will face the second-toughest schedule in the NFL this season according to my strength-of-schedule ratings.
Vikings Under 6.5 Win (+125)
Simon Hunter: The Vikings will face the fifth-hardest schedule in the NFL this season and have a real path toward potentially starting the season 0-8.
The NFC North is also getting better all around them. The Packers improved this offseason and get Jordan Love in Year 2, while the Bears may have finally found their quarterback. Then there are the Lions, who are the favorites after winning the division last year.
Finally, I'm not buying Sam Darnold. He has a 22-33-1 against the spread record in his career, which is the worst of any quarterback drafted since 2018.
Panthers Over 5.5 Wins (-115)
Chris Raybon: Canales has a history of "fixing" first-round busts at quarterback. The Seahawks' win total in 2022 was 5.5 with Smith under center, and they went 9-8. Last year, the Buccaneers' win total was 6.5 with Mayfield, and they also won nine games.
As I mentioned above, the Panthers upgraded their pass catchers. They also invested heavily on the offensive line, which will be huge for Young, who spent most of last season on the ground.
The Panthers were 2-15 last season but had 3.5 Pythagorean wins. Since 2002, teams that underperformed their Pythagorean total by one or more wins are 83-68-4 (55%) toward going over their win total in the following season.
NFL Futures Long Shots
Aidan Hutchinson Most Sacks (+1400)
Sean Koerner: Hutchinson continued to improve in his second season and proved he’s becoming one of the top pass rushers in the league, setting a new career high with 11.5 sacks.
However, my expected sacks model that looks at things like pressure rate, which is much more predictive than sack rate, had Hutchinson with 17 expected sacks last year. The only player with more was Micah Parsons. Hutchinson should get even better in his third season as he enters his prime at 24.
The Lions are a team that get off to quick starts and plays with the lead a lot. That forces teams into pass-heavy game scripts, which will benefit Hutchinson.
The Lions also brought in Marcus Davenport, who has been a good edge rusher when healthy. He might be able to help open things up for Hutchinson if he can stay healthy.
Hutchinson should be closer to the top of this market and is offering value at 14-1.
Panthers To Make the Playoffs (+550)
Simon Hunter: As if we needed to talk about why we love the Panthers more, I will.
I'm expecting a Year 2 jump from Young with Canales at the helm. He'll be playing what I have graded as the eighth-best offensive line in the NFL.
Something that hasn't been mentioned yet: the NFC South. This is the worst division in the NFL, and the Panthers will also have the benefit of playing a last-place schedule this season.
Blake Corum Most Rookie Rushing TDs (+800)
Chris Raybon: Corum sat with the rest of the Rams starters in the preseason despite having never played an NFL snap. That's a good sign to start your career.
Kyren Williams is yet to play more than 12 games in his career and had a career high in touches last season. I think it's likely that Corum steals more early down work from Williams than he does reps in the passing game. That could result in touches around the goal line.
In his market, Corum is competing with quarterbacks and a guy who will miss at least four games in Jonathan Brooks.
Super Bowl Picks
Houston Texans (+1600)
Sean Koerner: This is a team that’s has an arguably top-five quarterback on his rookie deal and is acting like it.
Adding Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon to an already potent offense will obviously help, but the Texans should also get better injury luck. Stroud only had Nico Collins and Tank Dell for eight games last season, and the offense line was missing multiple starters for most of the season.
The offense could be elite and if Houston's defense can take a step forward, it will be a a Super Bowl contender. The Texans have the talent with reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year Award winner Will Anderson Jr. and cornerback Derek Stingley Jr., who looked like a top-10 CB last year. Adding Danielle Hunter to the pass rush will also make Anderson even better.
I think this is the perfect team to invest in taking the next step toward being a legit Super Bowl contender and think 16-1 offers solid value.
Super Bowl Result: Chiefs Over Eagles (+5000)
Simon Hunter: There's no value in betting the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl at around +500, so I'm getting creative.
Both the Chiefs and Eagles play in a division that doesn't have great depth. That means both are favored to gain a top-three seed in their respective conference, which will help their paths to the Super Bowl.
Cincinnati Bengals (+1500)
Chris Raybon: The Bengals get Joe Burrow back with a last-place schedule after narrowly missing out on the playoffs last season. That creates a realistic path toward the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
Also, the only quarterback to beat Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs since Tom Brady retired is Burrow — and he almost did it the following season again.
