2024 NFL Mock Draft Predictions: 4 QBs Go Top 10 (April 14)

Collaborating with Action Network for the 2024 NFL Draft is Nick Guarisco (@fantasylawguy on X), who ranked in the top six in mock draft accuracy from 2019-21 at NFL Mock Draft Database, which grades the accuracy of mock drafts across the industry and includes analysts like ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr.

Guarisco's final mock for last year's NFL Draft hit on eight team-player matches and identified 28 of 32 first-rounders, though it failed to match the success of previous years. NFL Mock Draft Database graded his 2023 NFL mock draft as the 92nd-most accurate among 1,384 expert mock drafts. This result broke a streak of four consecutive years of his final mock draft finishing inside the top 20. You can find his mock draft history on FantasyLawGuy.com.

With the draft just around the corner, check out his latest 2024 NFL mock draft predictions below.

1. QB Caleb Williams (USC)

Chicago Bears (via Carolina Panthers)

• Most likely range for Williams: 1-1 (-1000 to go first overall)
• Most likely destination for Williams: CHI
• Team needs: QB, DE, WR, DT

2. QB Jayden Daniels (LSU)

Washington Commanders

• Most likely range for Daniels: 2-3
• Most likely destinations for Daniels: WAS, NE, LVR
• Team needs: QB, LT, DE, CB

Daniel Jeremiah, arguably the most plugged-in NFL Draft analyst, has stuck with Drake Maye in his mock drafts and recently reiterated the same on X.

However, sentiment is growing that Jayden Daniels is the Commanders' preferred option, with names like Adam Schefter, Albert Breer and Colin Cowherd stating that the LSU product is the frontrunner here. In addition, Washington insider Ben Standig also placed Daniels at No. 2 in his last mock. Standig noted that it’s possible that the Commanders have not decided on who to select yet. The Commanders will host both on top-30 visits this week.

Some believe offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury would be more familiar with Daniels' skillset considering he worked with Kyler Murray in Arizona. Ex-head coach Ron Rivera echoed these sentiments.

Some also believe that Washington, with new but inexperienced general manager Adam Peters, may place a higher value on Daniels’ experience and production. Others believe that Washington's minor moves to add backup QBs Marcus Mariota and Jeff Driskel speak to a bigger picture in wanting backups who somewhat resemble Daniels’ mobile skillset.

Notably, LSU head coach Brian Kelly said that Daniels is going to make plays "for Washington,” but it turns out that he was answering a Washington-based question and was not accidentally tipping the pick. In addition, “The Coach Speak Index” has pointed out a relevant quote from head coach Dan Quinn; when asked about what he looks for in a quarterback, Quinn focused on processing speed and making the right decisions. Later, when Quinn was asked about Daniels specifically, he stated, “Jayden has been able to, like, really process things quickly. … Man, he has real decision-making and process, like, fast.” Furthermore, Quinn described Daniels as a “game changer” early in the process when asked to describe all quarterbacks using one word.

All things considered, more of the arrows point in the direction of Daniels over Maye here, though this is far from certain with Vegas still relatively split on No. 2. Perhaps more intel will be gathered after Daniels and Maye visit Washington this week.

I have the Commanders’ targets for the second pick as follows: Daniels > Maye > J.J. McCarthy.

3. QB Drake Maye (North Carolina)

New England Patriots

• Most likely range for Maye: 2-6
• Most likely destinations for Maye: WAS, NE, NYG, MIN
• Team needs: QB, WR, LT, S

New England has held top-30 visits with quarterbacks Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye and J.J. McCarthy, which is relevant considering that all of the Patriots' draft picks last season had a “30” visit with the team, except for Keion White.

Though there is new management in place, the Patriots' lack of a general manager should actually lend credence to the idea that New England should want to use all resources available to ensure all boxes are checked. Accordingly, it’s worth noting that New England has not yet conducted a “30” visit with any other prospect inside the top 30 picks, per sharp mocks.

For these reasons and more, I strongly believe the Pats are taking a quarterback. While I do think a trade down is possible if they're blown away by an offer, I’m also not buying the narrative that New England will punt on a QB this year because the roster is “not ready” for a franchise QB.

It’s highly unlikely that the team will be in a better position than it is now to address the position. Accordingly, Daniel Jeremiah said he'd be "stunned" if New England does not take a QB. Moreover, owner Bob Kraft said he'd like to "get a top-rate young quarterback."

In a year where the team lacks leadership at general manager, Kraft’s say may be more heavily considered. In sum, expect the team to roll with a quarterback as opposed to drafting a WR — which they also desperately need — or trading down.

Though many assume the third overall pick will be Daniels or Maye (basically whomever Washington does not pick), we should probably throw McCarthy’s hat into the ring. It’s abundantly clear that the NFL views McCarthy much more favorably than media and fans.

An outstanding pro day and strong interviews are among many things that have reportedly have teams enamored by the Michigan quarterback. Last week, draft analyst Tony Pauline reported that the buzz at the pro day circuit was that de-facto GM Eliot Wolf loved McCarthy.

It’s fair to assume Kraft may believe a Michigan quarterback who went 27-1 as a starter and won a national championship and has reportedly crushed interviews reminds him of a certain someone. That being said, Albert Breer reported that the Patriots sent an “eye-popping” number of guys to Daniels’ and Maye’s pro days.

Head coach Jerod Mayo noted Maye had a “fantastic interview at the combine” after Wolf emphasized the franchise would emphasize intangibles — like leadership and body language — in addition to strong physical traits. Rumors have been spreading that Daniels’ visit with New England went better than the one in Washington.

I could see New England taking any of the top three quarterbacks.

I have the Patriots’ targets for Pick 3 as follows: Daniels > Maye > McCarthy.

4. WR Marvin Harrison Jr. (Ohio State)

Arizona Cardinals

• Most likely range for Harrison: 4-6
• Most likely destinations for Harrison: ARI, LAC, NYG
• Team needs: WR, CB, DE, LG

Arizona general manager Monti Ossenfort has an affinity for trading down and has reportedly made this pick open for business, presumably for a team that wants to move up for a quarterback (Giants/Vikings). Consequently, I do not believe the team is locked in to Marvin Harrison Jr., who did not work out at the combine or his pro day.

In fact, recent reports from Adam Schefter suggest the Cardinals might prefer LSU WR Malik Nabers. The Cardinals could be prioritizing explosiveness, which would favor Nabers.

Still, it's tough to move off a premier talent. Harrison is seen as a lock, even though the trade-down option will be tempting.
Nabers had a gun-related arrest that may turn off some teams.

Cardinals beat writer Chuck Harris implied that Harrison would love to be drafted by Arizona while NBC's Matthew Berry reported at the combine that he expects the Cards to stick and pick.

Arizona has had multiple visits (including “30s”) with WRs Nabers, Harrison and Rome Odunze; it also had “30s” with OT JC Latham and CB Terrion Arnold. This is relevant because last year, the team similarly visited with a variety of projected mid-first round offensive line prospects, foreshadowing a potential trade down (Arizona ended up trading down from Pick 3 to Pick 6 and drafted OT Paris Johnson Jr.).

In the event the Vikings pull off a trade with the Cardinals, it’s possible that Arizona moves back up to take one of the three elite WRs, but if not, the fallback plan seems to be Latham or Arnold.

I have the Cardinals’ targets for Pick 4 as follows: Harrison > Nabers > Odunze.

5. OT Joe Alt (Notre Dame)

Los Angeles Chargers

• Most likely range for Alt: 5-10
• Most likely destinations for Alt: LAC, TEN, CHI, NYJ
• Team needs: CB, WR, DT, RT, LB

The Chargers are in a good position to trade down, which is something they're reportedly interested in.

Daniel Jeremiah stated, “Getting extra picks is going to be part of the building plan here, allowing Los Angeles to add starters via the draft at an affordable price after paying [Justin] Herbert big bucks.”

WR and OT are major needs, but my lean here is the latter for several reasons.

New head coach Jim Harbaugh has stressed protecting Herbert and running the ball more. Harbaugh has always prioritized the running game both as a coach in college and in the NFL. Furthermore, offensive coordinator Greg Roman has been one of the most run-heavy OCs for the past decade.

It should be no surprise that a clip of Harbaugh preaching the importance of the offensive line went viral. If the team stays doesn't trade down, Joe Alt makes the most sense as the most polished lineman, though there are questions about a potential transition to right tackle. It’s plausible the Chargers trade down and draft another tackle who may be seen as a more natural right tackle, such as Taliese Fuaga or JC Latham.

The Chargers are taking a "we'll see" approach at the wide receiver position. This OL > WR philosophy is in line with Harbaugh's college history.

In fact, Harbaugh/Roman teams have minimized the position throughout the years, both in college and in the pros. Anthony Amico pointed out that Harbaugh had just two top-15 WR recruits from 2015-2023, both of which came six years ago. Moreover, several wide receivers have spoken out about the lack of usage in Roman's offenses.

Simply put, though it’s likely that an elite pass-catching prospect will be available at Pick 5, wide receiver is not a position that this staff cares about. While I can't totally rule it out, drafting one here would be a significant philosophical departure, evidenced by nearly a decade of history. That being said, Hayden Winks connected some dots and revealed that Herbert and Gabe Nabers were roommates; Gabe’s nephew is Malik Nabers.

History suggests Harbaugh values tight ends more. According to PFF, only Iowa targeted its tight ends more than Harbaugh's Michigan teams among the entire FBS. Amico noted Harbaugh’s recruiting history showed tight ends were more of a priority.

Harbaugh had Vernon Davis in San Francisco, while Greg Roman had Charles Clay in Buffalo and Mark Andrews in Baltimore. According to a source, the Chargers were in on Dalton Kincaid last year, and Brock Bowers could provide a pass-catching focal point as opposed to the poor WRs in a trade-down scenario.

I have the Chargers’ targets for Pick 5 as follows: Marvin Harrison Jr. > Alt > Nabers.

6. QB J.J. McCarthy (Michigan)

New York Giants

• Most likely range for McCarthy: 3-6
• Most likely destinations for McCarthy: NE, NYG, MIN
• Team needs: QB, WR, CB, DT, LG

In reality, the Vikings would likely make a major play to move ahead of the Giants to secure McCarthy. But in this mock, I am not projecting trades. Thus, this is McCarthy’s floor.

The Giants signed Daniel Jones to a big contract last year, but it has a somewhat of an out after 2025. Jones is coming off a major injury and there are conflicting reports on whether the team has given up on him. They signed another QB in Drew Lock, for what that’s worth.

According to Giants beat writer Jordan Raanan, general manager Joe Schoen and head coach Brian Daboll have the green light to draft a QB if they desire. Owner John Mara stated, "If they fall in love with the quarterback and believe it's worth pick No. 6 or moving up, I would certainly support that."

The Giants have sent arguably too many signals showing interest in the top quarterbacks in this class, namely J.J. McCarthy, but it could just be a smokescreen in an attempt to get another team to move in front of them for a QB. This would allow allow an elite wide receiver like Malik Nabers fall to Pick 6.

On the other hand, McCarthy visited the Giants privately for two days on Easter Eve and Easter Sunday. That doesn't seem like smoke, though it may simply be due diligence.

Regardless, there is a major need for a WR. Darius Slayton and Jalin Hyatt are nice deep threats andWan'Dale Robinson can play inside, but a playmaker is needed, especially with Darren Waller contemplating retirement.

Many believe Nabers is the WR that NYG covets, but it’s possible that the Giants prefer Rome Odunze considering his size.

Last year, Schoen provided the following reasons for selecting CB Deonte Banks in the first round: "Prototype from a size standpoint. Speed. Athleticism. Four-year starter …" —  this could indicate Schoen is valuing size, athleticism and experience early on.

Lastly, it’s worth mentioning the Giants have major OL issues. The team made 50-of-85 possible starts (32nd), but the expectation is that the Giants will bypass the position in Round 1 after addressing some of those issues in free agency by signing OG Aaron Stinnie, C Austin Schlottmann, OG Jon Runyan and RT Jermaine Eluemunor.

I have the Giants’ targets for Pick 6 as follows: Drake Maye > McCarthy > Nabers > Odunze.

7. WR Malik Nabers (LSU)

Tennessee Titans

• Most likely range for Nabers: 4-7
• Most likely destinations for Nabers: ARI, LAC, NYG, TEN
• Team needs: OT, CB, DL, WR

Although signing Calvin Ridley put to rest the need to draft a WR here, I wouldn't rule it out.

Given DeAndre Hopkins' age (32 in June) and expiring contract, Treylon Burks' struggles with injuries (and a draftee of the old regime), and new head coach Brian Callahan's ability to develop offensive linemen, there are reasons to believe Tennessee could be leaving the door open for an elite receiver.

Furthering that argument is a relevant quote from GM Ron Carthon's about preferring a WR when it's a tie with an OL. Moreover, Carthon has established the Titans are putting an emphasis on speed this offseason. Specifically, he stated that he wants to be like Miami.

For these reasons, I don't see Tennessee passing on Malik Nabers if he falls to No. 7. Callahan was part of the infamous Penei Sewell vs. Ja’Marr Chase debate a few years ago, ultimately siding with Chase. History could repeat itself here.

Two big themes emerged from Carthon's first draft last year. First, he favored elite athletes from a testing standpoint, particularly for offensive linemen. Four of six picks had a Relative Athletic Score (RAS) of 8.98 or better. Second, experience matters. Of the six picks in 2024, only Levis wasn't at least a three-year starter.

This is relevant for OTs Olu Fashanu and Joe Alt as both are 3-4-year starters who earned a 9+ RAS. Diving deeper, offensive line guru Bill Callahan's blocking scheme is unique, consisting of a lot of wide zone.

Anthony Amico noted that Fashanu has more experience playing this (55% of snaps) than Alt. However, Alt’s 33 straight starts will be something Carthon likes. Ultimately, either of them makes sense, especially considering the massive vacancy at LT.

I have the Titans’ targets for Pick 7 as follows: Nabers > Alt > Fashanu > Rome Odunze.

8. DE Dallas Turner (Alabama)

Atlanta Falcons

• Most likely range for Turner: 8-15
  Most likely destinations for Turner: ATL, CHI, DEN, NO
  
• Team needs: DE, CB, WR

Pass rush has been a need for several years, with Atlanta finishing near the bottom of the league in most pass-rush categories for three straight seasons. The Falcons' last three picks (all top 10) have been offensive skill positions, so there's reason to believe this pick needs to address the other side of the ball.

Defensive leader, DE Calais Campbell, is a free agent, along with DE Bud Dupree. The Falcons are moving to a 3-4 base, so it’s fair to question whether either will be re-signed.

There are rumors Atlanta likes UCLA DE Laiatu Latu, but he has some medical concerns (neck), and I'm not sure the team would feel comfortable taking him this early (perhaps in a trade back though). Latu also played for new defensive coordinator Jimmy Lake, so the connection is there.

Accordingly, Falcons sources have indicated the team sees Latu as their top-rated DE. However, not only would taking Latu represent a pretty substantial medical risk in the top 10, but it would also reflect a departure from general manager Terry Fontenot’s historical trends in regard to age and arm length.

Latu's 32.5-inch arms fall short of Falcons DL arm-length thresholds. Fontenot comes from New Orleans, an organization notorious for prioritizing length in their defensive linemen. In addition, the age of Fontenot's average first rounder is 20.9, which is the youngest among GMs with at least three drafts. Latu will turn 24 during the season.

DE Jared Verse is 23 as well, and his arms are only one inch longer than Latu’s. Meanwhile, Dallas Turner is only 21 and has longer arms. DT Byron Murphy II warrants consideration as well due to head coach Raheem Morris’ past emphasis on interior disruptors. As a former coach, Morris has spent significant draft capital on D-linemen.

Cornerback is also a major need with Jeff Okudah departing, leaving CB2 relatively vacant opposite of A.J. Terrell, who is entering the final year of his contract. The Falcons only recorded eight interceptions last season, which tied for 30th in the league. Quinyon Mitchell seems to check a lot of boxes here.

Ultimately, the Falcons are a prime trade-down team seeing as they can get a pass rusher like Turner, Verse or Latu, as well as a CB like Mitchell or Terrion Arnold several picks later.

I have the Falcons’ targets for Pick 8 as follows: Nabers; Trade Down: Turner > Arnold > Mitchell > Latu > Verse > Murphy II.

9. WR Rome Odunze (Washington)

Chicago Bears

• Most likely range for Odunze: 6-10
• Most likely destinations for Odunze: NYG, TEN, CHI, NYJ
• Team needs: QB, DE, WR, DT

All indications, including words directly from GM Ryan Poles that are that the Bears are contemplating players at three positions: WR, OT and DE. Although the team has DJ Moore and traded for Keenan Allen, Chicago does not have much behind them in the passing game. Allen (31) is entering final year of his contract and should not deter Bears from taking Odunze, who can grow with Williams.

This offseason's priority has been to put Williams in the best position possible to succeed. Bears insider Ben Divine astutely pointed out that new OC Shane Waldron petitioned for Seattle to draft WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba despite the presence of DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Chicago is in a similar situation here, and I think Odunze ranks highest among the players listed below. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if the Bears moved up to secure him.

Chicago could also opt to upgrade the O-line. LT Braxton Jones is solid, but Chicago's starters made only 60/85 possible starts last year (26th), with Jones and LG Teven Jenkins missing significant time. A stud LT like Joe Alt and Olu Fashanu would solidify the unit and give it much-needed depth.

Local product Alt makes the most sense. O-line coach Chris Morgan was active with Alt during Notre Dame's Pro Day, but the fact that Olu Fashanu played with Caleb Williams in high school is interesting. Additionally, the Bears sent a large contingent to the Oregon State pro day, presumably to see Taliese Fuaga work out.

Also, head coach Matt Eberflus listed OT1, WR3, and Edge2 as the positions of need (in that order) when asked about position considerations.

Although the Bears' defense improved in the second half of the season, notably after the addition of DE Montez Sweat, Chicago ranked 31st in sacks and 32nd in sack percentage, averaging fewer than two per game. Thus, reinforcements are needed for the D-line, both at DE and DT, having lost DEs Yannick Ngakoue and Rasheem Green and DT Justin Jones. DE Dallas Turner, Jared Verse and even Laiatu Latu make sense to upgrade the pass rush. Poles is a high RAS guy, especially along the lines, and all players mentioned above carry RAS scores above 9.

I do not believe the Bears will trade down. The rebuild is over, and the team (with Williams) is ready to compete now. GM Poles stated accordingly that he wants a blue-chip player with this pick.

I have the Bears’ targets for this pick as follows: Trade Up: Harrison … Nabers > Odunze > Alt > Fashanu > Fuaga > Turner > Verse > Latu

10. OT Taliese Fuaga (Oregon St.)

New York Jets

• Most likely range for Fuaga: 10-18
  Most likely destinations for Fuaga: NYJ, LVR, NO, SEA, JAX, CIN, PIT
• Team needs: LT, WR

The Jets' O-line was decimated by injuries last season with starters making just 51 of 85 possible starts, which ranked 30th. The team signed LT Tyron Smith, LG John Simpson and RT Morgan Moses, but now the team has two 33-year-old tackles on one-year deals. Also, Smith seems to miss games every year, while RG Alijah Vera-Tucker is also coming off a major injury.

Teams with major OL injuries in the prior season have a tendency to draft OL early and considering the need to keep Aaron Rodgers upright, the need for drafting an OT here may be necessary, obviously for the future, but very likely for this season, as well.

The Jets have a history of favoring high RAS athletes and team captains, per beat writer Michael Nania. The Jets have also avoided players playing in non-Power 5 schools. Accordingly, I expect the team to be especially interested in Joe Alt and Taliese Fuaga.

There's also a need for a pass catcher, considering there is nothing behind Mike Williams, who's coming off a torn ACL and will not be ready for training camp. Plus, he's only signed for one year. This makes WR Rome Odunze and TE Brock Bowers prime targets here. I consider this pick Odunze's floor and Bowers's ceiling.

For pass catchers, Jets prioritize yards after catch (YAC) ability. Per longtime beat writer Rich Cimini, Bowers averaged more YAC per reception (8.8) than the top three receivers in this draft — Harrison (6.3), Nabers (6.7) and Odunze (5.7). This lends credence to the Jets-Bowers buzz. As does this quote from GM Douglas: "I think this is an unbelievable offensive line class. It's an unbelievable class at quite a few positions, but I think where we're at now, we have great flexibility to go in any direction." When asked about taking a TE early, Joe Douglas said, "again, we're open to anyone that can come in here and make an immediate impact for the team."

All of Douglas' moves scream, “Win now."

Along these lines, it’s also worth noting that Daniel Jeremiah, who is close to Douglas, had the Jets trading up to get Marvin Harrison Jr. in his latest mock. This could be a sign that New York plans to make a splash for a pass catcher. If not for Harrison, then perhaps a move-up to Nos. 7-8 to land Odunze, jumping ahead of Chicago at No. 9.

I have the Jets’ targets for Pick 10 as follows: Nabers > Odunze > Alt > Fuaga > Bowers

11. CB Quinyon Mitchell (Toledo)

Minnesota Vikings

• Most likely range for Mitchell: 8-17
  Most likely destinations for Mitchell: 8-17
• Team needs: QB, CB, DE, DT

After acquiring a second first round pick (23), there are a myriad of suggestions that the Vikings have the framework for a trade in place with the Chargers (No. 5) if things go as expected on the first night. There are connections linking the Vikings and Drake Maye, specifically that new QB coach Josh McCown coached Maye in high school. The Vikings reportedly love J.J. McCarthy, as well, and lately, there have been some tea leaves suggesting Jayden Daniels is the target. Regardless, the league is on notice that the Vikings have serious plans to move into the top five to take a franchise quarterback.

Tony Pauline reported that "the feeling" Vikings were giving at Texas' pro day was that DT Byron Murphy II was their contingency plan if McCarthy or Maye did not pan out. The Vikings aggressively pursued DT Christian Wilkins in free agency and could still use reinforcements along the D-line. The Vikings' top-three DTs (Phillips, Bullard, and Tillery) all have expiring contracts in 2025, so Murphy is a logical fit.

Though the team signed DEs Andrew Van Ginkel, Jonathan Greenard and Jihad Ward, the team may not be finished adding pass rushers. Minnesota is reportedly high on Dallas Turner in particular.

Another need exists in the secondary despite the fact that the Vikings have poured recent capital in the unit. Head coach Kevin O'Connell specifically stated, "We want to get to a place where we play more man coverage."

I have the Vikings’ targets for Pick 11 as follows: Trade Up: Maye > McCarthy > Daniels … Turner > Murphy II > Mitchell > Arnold

12. TE Brock Bowers (Georgia)

Denver Broncos

• Most likely range for Bowers: 10-19
  Most likely destinations for Bowers: NYJ, DEN, NO, IND, CIN, LAR
• Team needs: QB, DE, CB, TE, C

It's difficult to grasp Denver leaving the first round without a quarterback considering Jarrett Stidham and Ben DiNucci (five combined NFL starts) are the only quarterbacks on the roster. However, Denver presumably lacks the ammunition to trade up to Nos. 3-5 overall, despite Sean Payton calling it a "realistic possibility" when asked at the owners meetings.

Denver has been heavily linked to Bo Nix by Broncos insider Benjamin Allbright and others as an ideal QB pairing with Sean Payton. Picking Nix at 12 seems rich and arguably unnecessary, however, especially when factoring in the lack of competition for Nix in round one. The Broncos may trade back into round one or early round two if Payton’s interest is indeed real, but the team does not currently have a second round pick to help achieve that end.

Regardless who is at QB, Denver has a massive pass-catching need, be it WR or TE. The team traded Jerry Jeudy and rumor has it that Courtland Sutton could be next. It’s hard to envision a WR like Rome Odunze or Malik Nabers falling here, but WR Brian Thomas is an option, as is TE Brock Bowers. GM George Paton said, "I don't want to give all our needs, but we need to solidify the tight end position. Dulcich has been hurt. But we need a weapon in the middle of the field. Felt like we missed that."

If the Jets pass on Bowers, he could land here one pick later. Sean Payton has had an extensive and successful history utilizing the move-TE position effectively.

Defensively, Allbright has talked up the importance of the CB position throughout the process, especially in the Vic Fangio scheme the team is still using. The Broncos don't have any legit CB2 opposite Patrick Surtain and allowed a 98 QB Rating in 2023 (30th).

In addition, the pass rush cannot be ignored. Behind DE Nik Bonitto, DEs Jonathon Cooper and Baron Browning, as well as DT D.J. Jones, have expiring contracts in 2025. The Broncos’ run defense was atrocious last season, which makes a strong case for DT Byron Murphy II. The apparent needs at CB and DE put DEs Dallas Turner and Jared Verse, as well as CBs Quinyon Mitchell and Terrion Arnold, squarely in play.

I have the Broncos’ targets for Pick 12 as follows: Trade Up: McCarthy … Bowers > Turner > Verse > Mitchell > Arnold > Verse > Murphy

13. CB Terrion Arnold (Alabama)

Las Vegas Raiders

• Most likely range for Arnold: 11-22
  Most likely destinations for Arnold: DEN, LVR, IND, JAX, PHI
• Team needs: QB, RT, RG, DT, CB, RB

Head coach Antonio Pierce has vocalized what he wants out of a Raiders draft pick. "I don't want anybody that's entitled, that don't have a little chip on their shoulder. We're not going to mesh. It's just not going to happen. … I'm the guardian at the gate. I'm not letting any evil into the building."

Per Raiders beat writer Vic Tafur, Pierce values “alpha males with an edge.” He will not shy away from big personalities with swagger because he believes he is like that himself. Pierce values players who have overcome adversity and those who have an “underdog mentality.” Pierce seems passionate about this, and therefore, I’m passionate about mocking the Raiders a player who fits this personality.

QB Jayden Daniels and QB Michael Penix Jr. fit these descriptions to a T. I’m buying the rumors that the Raiders love Daniels and have considered packaging several picks to move up. Pierce recruited Daniels to ASU. Assuming the Raiders cannot pull off this dream trade, the fall back plan could be Penix. He has had four season-ending injuries, but his medical evaluations were supposedly fine. Penix has also been very candid about battling through adversity stemming from those injuries. This provides some context for Daniel Jeremiah shockingly mocking Penix to the Raiders at No. 13. While this seems aggressive for a 24-year-old QB with an injury history, we shouldn’t be remotely surprised if the Raiders move back in the first round to secure Penix.

While QB is the obvious need, the Raiders are more likely to select a cornerback or offensive lineman at 13. The right side of the O-line needs to be addressed after losing RG Greg Van Roten and RT Jermaine Eluemunor, who started a combined 33 of a possible 34 games last season. Per Peter King, Raiders were in love with Paris Johnson Jr. and Anton Harrison and considered both moving back a couple of spots to take Harrison if Tyree Wilson didn't fall last year or trading back in the first round to grab Harrison.

New GM Tom Telesco invested two recent first round picks in OL with the Chargers: LT Rashawn Slater and OG Zion Johnson. In fact, Andrew Erickson pointed out that Telesco drafted eight O-linemen in the top three rounds during his time with the Chargers, the most of any position.

Accordingly, OTs JC Latham and Taliese Fuaga make a ton of sense here. Dane Brugler’s draft guide described Fuaga, a team captain, as reliable, accountable and tough. Fuaga, specifically, sounds like someone Pierce and Telesco will agree on.

Additionally, CB is a major need for this team, with Pierce calling it a "priority" to find a CB1. There is reason to believe that Terrion Arnold is Pierce's CB1, with Arnold admitting that Pierce had high praise for him after they were seen talking at the combine. Moreover, Anthony Amico noted that Arnold may be a good scheme fit with both the Raiders and him mostly playing zone. Brugler’s draft guide noted that Arnold “loves to compete,” citing his charisma and mental toughness as being desirable for the position. Again, this sounds like a personality Pierce will covet.

I have the Raiders’ targets for Pick 13 as follows: Taliese Fuaga > Terrion Arnold > Quinyon Mitchell > JC Latham

14. OT Olu Fashanu (Penn. St.)

New Orleans Saints

• Most likely range for Fashanu: 7-17
• Most likely destinations for Fashanu: TEN, CHI, LVR, NO, SEA, JAX
• Team needs: OT, DE, LG, S

Saints have a major need at OT seeing as LT Trevor Penning has not panned out, and based on recent reports regarding RT Ryan Ramczyk, which suggest his knee may jeopardize his ability to play this season. Also, retirement was mentioned as being in the realm of possibility. LT/LG James Hurst is only on a one-year, relatively cheap deal. Hurst is expected to compete with Penning at the LG spot.

The good news is that the Saints are picking squarely in the middle of a range of several quality OTs in a loaded OL class. What’s relevant is that the Saints are in a new offensive system in which new OC Klint Kubiak focuses on mobility and zone-blocking scheme like his father, Gary Kubiak, who based his offense on Mike Shanahan's. This wide-zone scheme is not frequently run in college but should help mockers discern among which of the numerous round-one offensive linemen the Saints would be more likely to select.

Saints beat writer Nick Underhill has been extremely accurate in predicting the players that the team will target in the draft. He believes that after Alt, Olu Fashanu is the best fit for the team based on his athleticism, agility and experience at left tackle. Underhill also mentioned JC Latham as a fit, though more of a projection would be required to play LT. Underhill suggested that Fuaga and Amarius Mims should not be preferred, considering the Saints do not have the luxury of having them sit and develop; whoever the Saints draft at OT must start immediately. Underhill also noted that while Fuaga was the only one of the linemen that he evaluated who played more than 75 college snaps in the outside zone (and he excelled in them), some believe Fuaga projects to be a guard.

ecent draft trends for the Saints include focusing on high RAS players, so it’s fair to question whether the Saints would risk taking Latham, who did not test athletically due to an injury.
Beat writer Luke Johnson revealed that five of the last seven Saints draft picks were team captains, so this may be a point of emphasis, especially considering Dennis Allen’s leadership hasn’t exactly been unanimously well-perceived.

If the Saints do not go OL, the defensive line is the next best bet. The Saints only recorded 34 sacks last season (T-29th), averaging a paltry two per game. DE isn’t an immediate need in 2024, but DEs Chase Young, Tanoh Kpassagnon and Payton Turner all have expiring contracts in 2025, not to mention this may be Cam Jordan’s final year.

Therefore, a DE like Dallas Turner or Jared Verse are attractive options if they are the best available players, though it’s hard to believe the Saints, a team in win-now mode with a coach arguably on the hot seat this season, drafts for a 2025 need, however prevalent it may be. Saints DL coach Todd Grantham got up-close look at Texas DT Byron Murphy II at Texas' pro day. Director of college scouting Jeff Ireland was also in attendance.

TE Brock Bowers also presents an interesting wild card if he falls this year. Dennis Allen stated, "A pass catcher. Not necessarily a wide receiver, but a pass catcher is something that we will continue to look at." WR Brian Thomas II may also fall within this range.

I have the Saints’ targets for Pick 14 as follows: Fashanu > Latham > Fuaga > Fautanu > Turner > Verse > Bowers

15. WR Brian Thomas Jr. (LSU)

Indianapolis Colts

• Most likely range for Thomas: 15-28
• Most likely destinations for Thomas: IND, JAX, MIA, DAL, BUF
• Team needs: CB, WR, S

The Colts have placed a massive emphasis on high RAS players, with only QB Sam Ehlinger receiving below an 8.50 RAS in the last three drafts (15+ players).

Sources indicate that the Colts want to get "more explosive" on both sides of ball. Accordingly, WR coach Reggie Wayne traveled to Texas' pro day so far, one of two he attended, to watch speedsters Adonai Mitchell and Xavier Worthy. A speedy WR could replace Alec Pierce and give Anthony Richardson an ideal three-WR set. We should also assume that Brian Thomas (4.33 ’40) is in the mix, as well. It’s worth noting that the Colts spent a second-round pick on Pierce a few years ago, however, so the team has already invested heavily in the position.

Early in the process, Owner Irsay joked that he wanted GM Ballard to get WR Marvin Harrison Jr. to Indy, but then added, "Although the Alabama guy doesn't look bad." He's likely referring to CB Terrion Arnold. The Colts have a pretty significant need at CB2 opposite Brents with Moore playing NCB. Quinyon Mitchell is a 9+ RAS CB who would check the boxes for the Colts. CB Cooper DeJean also fits the profile.

I have the Colts’ targets for Pick 15 as follows: Bowers > Mitchell > Arnold > Thomas Jr. > DeJean > Mitchell > Worthy

16. OT Troy Fautanu (Washington)

Seattle Seahawks

• Most likely range for Fautanu: 13-22
• Most likely destinations for Fautanu: NO, SEA, JAX, CIN, PIT, MIA
• Team needs: OG, LB, S

"This is a need on our team right now. I think it's fairly obvious," GM Schneider said about O-line. The Seahawks starting O-line made 57 of 85 possible starts (27th) last season. It’s worth noting that the team signed OT George Fant to serve as insurance in case RT Abraham Lucas is not healthy.

There are some low-end options at center, but at least one guard spot is up for grabs (some would argue both). Consequently, some experts are connecting OG Graham Barton to Seattle. However, most of the dot-connecting leads to OT Troy Fautanu. New Seattle OC Ryan Grubb and OL coach Scott Huff just coached Fautanu at Washington, so he's clearly a scheme fit. Fautanu has the versatility to start at RT seeing as Lucas is coming off a major injury, or he could start immediately at LG.

One counterargument to Fautanu is his age (23), as Seattle has steered away from older prospects early. In his introductory press conference, HC Mike Macdonald called Grubb an offensive line coach “at heart.” Grubb called a lot of zone concepts at Washington, which makes Taliese Fuaga a seamless fit. Dane Brugler noted in his prolific draft guide that Fuaga would excel in a zone-based system, and some teams view him as a guard.

Expect Seattle to avoid players with major red flags. The Seahawks have shown an aversion toward character risks since GM Schneider drafted Malik McDowell in the second round in 2017; he followed suit by passing on DT Jalen Carter, who was widely considered to be Seattle’s target at No. 5.

While neither the defensive line nor the defensive backfield is settled, the offensive line seems more like a priority. Considering the deep O-line class, however, Seattle’s new defensive-minded HC Macdonald may want a movable chess piece to build his defense up for Ravens standards. Using this logic, many film gurus have theorized that Cooper DeJean would be an exceptional fit to play a hybrid S/CB/nickel role. Many reports have stated that several teams view DeJean as a safety.

Seattle has hosted DEs Jared Verse and Chop Robinson on “30” visits. Verse falls within range of this pick, and Robinson could be had in a trade-down situation. Speaking of, Seattle is a prime trade-down candidate due to a lack of draft capital.

I have the Seahawks’ targets for No. 16 as follows: Fuaga > Fautanu > Verse > DeJean > Robinson

17. OT Amarius Mims (UGA)

Jacksonville Jaguars

• Most likely range for Mims: 17-22
• Most likely destinations for Mims: JAX, CIN, PIT, MIA
• Team needs: CB, DL, WR

Jaguars beat writer John Shipley noted that general manager Trent Baalke has avoided drafting WRs in the early rounds during his long tenure. Although the Jaguars lost Calvin Ridley in free agency, the team spent plenty of money to sign Gabe Davis to pair with the highly paid Christian Kirk.

Last year, Jacksonville signed TE Evan Engram to a long-term deal. WR Devin Duvernay was also added. In sum, though there may be public perception to draft a receiver like Brian Thomas Jr. to replace Ridley, I do not think the organization agrees, especially when Davis and Thomas are somewhat stylistically similar.

However, NFL analyst Chad Forbes reported that the Jaguars are one of the teams heavily interested in Texas WR Adonai Mitchell. Forbes called Mitchell an option at 17.

I view cornerback as a position that the Jaguars would be more likely to address in the first round. The Jaguars added CB Ronald Darby as a veteran presence to complement Tyson Campbell, but Campbell is entering the last year of his contract. Moreover, the team would not owe Darby a substantial sum if Darby departs next year. The future at the CB position is questionable at best after 2024, and the depth is weak heading into this season.

Defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen prioritizes corners who excel in man and press coverage. Accordingly, Terrion Arnold may be preferred over Quinyon Mitchell, and even Kool-Aid McKinstry should be in play here if Arnold and Mitchell are off the board. Despite Mitchell being the superior testing athlete, one hesitation Baalke may have is that the Toledo product did not play at a Power 5 Conference. Cooper DeJean could fit the athletic profile and Power 5 Conference combination Baalke prefers.

The Jags entered the offseason in need of bodies along their offensive and defensive lines (particularly on the interior), but they seemed to do enough in free agency to at least avoid the need to draft an OL or DL in Round 1.

On offense, Jacksonville signed C Mitch Morse and LG Ezra Cleveland to relatively big contracts. On defense, stud DT Arik Armstead was brought in. While the Jags could use a DE3 behind Josh Allen and Travon Walker, I think the addition of Armstead, along with the fact that Walker was the No. 1 overall pick two years ago, will dissuade them from taking a defensive lineman.

We can’t completely rule out OL or DL here, but I consider it unlikely. If the team does go that route, arm length will be a priority for Baalke. He has never drafted a defensive lineman who has arms shorter than 34.3 inches on Day 1.

Accordingly, Anthony Amico believes that if Dallas Turner is off the board, the Jaguars are not going EDGE, seeing as Jared Verse, Laiatu Latu and Darius Robinson don’t meet the arm length requirement. This is important because Baalke has to be infatuated with OT Amarius Mims (6-foot-8 and 340 pounds with 36-inch arms and a 86.75-inch wingspan). Mims is projected to go around this area of the first round, and he is a sensible pick for Jacksonville considering he would be afforded the luxury of developing behind LT Cam Robinson for a year before taking over at either RT or LT.

Mims and last year’s first round pick, OT Anton Harrison, would set Trevor Lawrence up with bookend tackles for the foreseeable future. I believe Mims is on the team’s radar despite the lack of an immediate need.

I have the Jaguars’ targets for Pick 17 as follows: Mims > DeJean > Thomas > A. Mitchell

18. OT JC Latham (Alabama)

Cincinnati Bengals

Most likely range for Latham: 13-22
Most likely destinations for Latham: LVR, SEA, JAX, CIN, PIT, MIA
Team needs: RT, DT, WR, CB

The Bengals replaced RT Jonah Williams with Trent Brown, who personally claimed that he is not worried about the team drafting an offensive lineman with this pick. I'm not ruling it out, however. Brown was only signed for one year, and he's dealt with some injuries recently. JC Latham and Amarius Mims are logical fits here, and it helps that Cincinnati's offensive line coach perked up when discussing specific players as possible fits. Cincinnati could draft Latham because he would immediately upgrade the left guard position in year one and could slide over to right tackle once Brown's contract expires next year.

Similarly, drafting a raw but high-ceiling prospect like Mims would be sensible because he would be afforded the opportunity to develop for a year behind Brown before taking over as a starter next season. Bengals insider Joe Goodberry stated on April 3 that Amarius Mims was his most likely pick at 18. Mims had a private meeting with Bengals. Additionally, Latham could be a hit because, according to Ben Fennell, both the Bengals' blocking scheme and Latham’s skillset are mainly vertical, gap/man blocking.

Protecting Joe Burrow remains paramount.  Moreover, the Bengals have not been shy about drafting a position that is not an immediate team need but will be in the future (see Myles Murphy in 2023 and Dax Hill in 2022). However, we should still keep Taliese Fuaga and Troy Fautanu in play. Specifically, I have a tough time envisioning Cincinnati passing on Fuaga if he slides here.

Along the defensive line, the Bengals replaced DT D.J. Reader with Sheldon Rankins in free agency, but DT B.J. Hill's contract expires next offseason. DE Trey Hendrickson is also a free agent in 2025, but the team drafted DE Myles Murphy in round one last April. The D-line could be bolstered by drafting DT Byron Murphy II, who I believe would be a nice consolation prize if the desired OT is not on the board.

WR Tyler Boyd is set to depart in free agency, and Tee Higgins may not be far behind. Even if Higgins remains on the team for next season, his future beyond 2025 is uncertain. It was reported that Higgins and the Bengals are at a standstill in contract negotiations heading into the draft. The team's emphasis on high R.A.S. players could make WR Brian Thomas Jr. an option here. LSU legend Ja’Marr Chase would likely welcome this with open arms. Similarly, Cincinnati would likely end a TE Brock Bowers slide.

Cincinnati lost CB Chidobe Awuzie in free agency, but there is reason to believe that Dax Hill is moving to cornerback based on the team signing safeties Vonn Bell and Geno Stone to play with Jordan Battle. That being said, depth is needed here. Joe Goodberry pointed out that CB4 snaps for Bengals in the last 4 years have been 607, 1242, 788, and 827, and Bengals don't currently have a CB4. For these reasons, the team may be hard-pressed to bypass CBs Quinyon Mitchell or Terrion Arnold.

I have the Bengals’ targets for Pick 18 as follows: Bowers > Fuaga > Fautanu > Mims > Latham > Murphy II > Thomas

19. DE Laiatu Latu (UCLA)

Los Angeles Rams

• Most likely range for Latu: 8-31
• Most likely destinations for Latu: ATL, LVR, LAR, PHI, ARI, BUF, DET, BAL, SF
• Team needs: DE, S, QB

Sean McVay didn't go to the Combine and said the most important thing is what the tape looks like, so that’s important to keep in mind when mocking a player to the Rams.

The money that Rams spent on OL in free agency (guard Jonah Jackson and re-signing Kevin Dotson), as well as DB (S Kam Curl, CBs Darious Williams and Tre'Davious White) indicates that DL is the best bet to be primarily addressed in the draft. Consequently, I assume that the Rams will be in on DEs Jared Verse and Laiatu Latu.

Tony Pauline reported that the Rams are one of the teams who have medically cleared Latu, which greatly increases the odds he would be the pick here if available. Combine that with the theory that McVay prioritizes film over other aspects in evaluation, Latu should be a viable target here. Rams DEs Byron Young and Michael Hoecht each played 900+ snaps and cannot be relied upon to do so again, if for no other reason than health regression. Furthermore, GM Snead indicated that Hoecht could land in a more situational role, per beat writer Jourdan Rodrigue. In fact, when Rodrigue asked about cornerbacks, GM Snead brought up pressure issues.

"They got a lot of experience. There were some ups and downs with them. I think that in some of the down moments, we did not pressure the quarterback as much as we had in the past."

These comments suggest that the Rams want to improve the pass rush this offseason. What amplifies the need to do so, of course, is the retirement of Hall of Fame DT Aaron Donald. Thus, the Rams are an extremely logical destination for DT Byron Murphy II.

If the preferred D-linemen are not available, the Rams should look to help in the defensive backfield, as the team could use help at CB or S. Andrew Erickson noted that the Rams have tended to draft cornerbacks who tackle well. This brings Cooper DeJean, Terrion Arnold and Ennis Rakestraw Jr. to light.

I have the Rams’ targets for Pick 19 as follows: Latu > Verse > Murphy II > Arnold > DeJean

20. CB Cooper DeJean (Iowa)

Pittsburgh Steelers

• Most likely range for DeJean: 22-30
• Most likely destinations for DeJean: PHI, DAL, GB, TB, ARI, DET, BAL
• Team needs: QB, OT, C, CB, WR

The Steelers are one of the few teams in the NFL that almost always meet with and travel to pro day of their eventual first-round pick. Therefore, from a mocking perspective, it’s a bad bet to mock a player here whom the team has not shown transparent interest in.

Accordingly, the team has hosted a “30” visit with a league-high 15 prospects already, notably OTs Fuaga, Latham, Fautanu, Guyton and Mims, C Powers-Johnson, WR Mitchell, and CBs Wiggins and DeJean.

Head coach Mike Tomlin said work needs to be done at center and receiver. He also clarified that there are many WRs in the draft that can contribute ASAP. After a couple of centers in the draft, though, it will likely not be plug-and-play. Accordingly, the Steelers are rumored to be "big admirers" of C Jackson Powers-Johnson.

Defensive back is a need here, too. The team traded for CB Donte Jackson, but his contract expires next offseason. CB Patrick Peterson remains a free agent. A Reddit user (yeah, we’re diving deep into the weeds here) observed that Pittsburgh has drafted three CBs drafted under defensive coordinator Teryl Austin, and all are at least 6-foot-1, 192 pounds with at least 32 inches in arm length, which in theory rules out Nate Wiggins (173 pounds, 30.5-inch arms). The “30” visit means something, but I would assume Pittsburgh has DeJean higher on its board than Wiggins.

Despite drafting OT Broderick Jones in round one last season, the Steelers have placed a lot of attention to this year’s crop of first-round tackles. After perusing through the Steelers beat, I think Plan A is to address right tackle in round one, moving OT Broderick Jones to left tackle in a corresponding move. Pittsburgh then will hope that a center like Zach Frazier slides in round two before addressing CB and WR in the later rounds. If the team’s preferred OT isn’t on the board, the team should be expected to take WR Mitchell, CB DeJean or Wiggins on Thursday night.

I have the Steelers’ targets for Pick 20 as follows: Fuaga, Latham, Fautanu, Mims, Guyton, DeJean, Mitchell, Wiggins, Powers-Johnson

21. DE Jared Verse (FSU)

Miami Dolphins

• Most likely range for Verse: 9-21
• Most likely destinations for Verse: CHI, DEN, NO, LAR, MIA
• Team needs: OG, CB, DT

22. OG Graham Barton (Duke)

Philadelphia Eagles

• Most likely range for Barton: 20-31
• Most likely destinations for Barton: SEA, PIT, MIA, PHI, DAL, GB, TB, ARI
• Team needs: CB, RG, LB

23. DT Byron Murphy II (Texas)

Houston Texans (via Cleveland Browns)

• Most likely range for Murphy: 12-24
• Most likely destinations for Murphy: MIN, NO, JAX, CIN, LAR, MIA, MIN, DAL
• Team needs: QB, CB, DE, DT

24. WR Adonai Mitchell (Texas)

Dallas Cowboys

• Most likely range for Mitchell: 15-32
• Most likely destinations for Mitchell: IND, JAX, MIA, BUF, BAL, KC
• Team needs: LT, CB, C, LB, RB

25. OT Tyler Guyton (Oklahoma)

Green Bay Packers

• Most likely range for Guyton: 21-32
  Most likely destinations for Guyton: MIA, PHI, DAL, GB, DAL, BAL, SF, KC
• Team needs: CB, S, OG

26. DE Chop Robinson (Penn. St.)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Most likely range for Robinson: 19-31
  Most likely destinations for Robinson: LAR, PHI, TB, ARI, BAL, SF
• Team needs: iOL, CB, DE, LB

27. CB Kool-Aid McKinstry (Alabama)

Arizona Cardinals (via Houston Texans)

• Most likely range for McKinstry: 17-32
  Most likely destinations for McKinstry: JAX, PHI, GB, ARI, TB, DET, BAL
• Team needs: WR, CB, DE, LG

28. WR Xavier Worthy (Texas)

Buffalo Bills

• Most likely range for Worthy: 21-Rd. 2
• Most likely destinations for Worthy: IND, MIA, BUF, KC
• Team needs: WR, DE, C, DT

29. C Jackson Powers-Johnson (Oregon)

Detroit Lions

• Most likely range for Powers-Johnson: 20-Rd. 2
  Most likely destinations for Powers-Johnson: PIT, TB, DET
• Team needs: iOL, DL, CB

30. OT Jordan Morgan (Arizona)

Baltimore Ravens

• Most likely range for Morgan: 21-32
  Most likely destinations for Morgan: MIA, DAL, GB, ARI, BAL, SF
• Team needs: OG, RT, CB, DE, WR

31. DT Darius Robinson (Missouri)

San Francisco 49ers

• Most likely range for Robinson: 29-Round 2
  Most likely destinations for Robinson: DET, SF
• Team needs: CB, DT, OG, LB

32. OT Kingsley Suamataia (BYU)

Kansas City Chiefs

Most likely range for Suamataia: 30-Round 2
Most likely destinations for Suamataia: BAL, SF, KC, NE, WAS
Team needs: LT, WR, CB

Other Round 1 Possibilities

CB Nate Wiggins (Clemson)
Most likely range for Wiggins: 20-32
Most likely destinations for Wiggins: PIT, TB, ARI, KC

CB Ennis Rakestraw (Missouri)
Most likely range for Rakestraw: 29-Round 2
Most likely destinations for Rakestraw: DET, BAL, SF, KC

DT Jer’Zhan Newton (Illinois)
Most likely range for Newton: 29-Round 2
Most likely destinations for Newton: DET, SF

LB Edgerrin Cooper (Texas A&M)
Most likely range for Cooper: 24-Round 2
Most likely destinations for Cooper: DAL

QB Michael Penix Jr. (Washington)
Most likely range for Penix Jr.: 20-Round 2
Most likely destinations for Penix Jr.: LVR, SEA, NYG

QB Bo Nix (Oregon)
Most likely range for Nix: 20-Round 2
Most likely destinations for Nix: DEN