2024 NFL MVP Odds
Odds according to FanDuel.
Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes and Bills QB Josh Allen have calcified their leads in the NFL MVP markets with two dominant performances in Week 1.
It stands to reason that the Chiefs and Bills are ranked No. 1 and No. 2, respectively, in offensive DVOA for the season opener. But it was Allen who put up the more dominant offensive numbers with four totaltouchdowns and 271 yards through the air and on the ground in a come-from-behind win, which is what catapulted him closer to Mahomes after a week of play.
Remember, individual stats and winning are the two most important criteria for this award, in addition to being a quarterback. That doesn't necessarily mean Allen the best pick at this juncture, though.
My colleague Brandon Anderson laid out the six most important criteria for this award, which you can read more about here.
- The winner is very, very likely to be a quarterback.
- Voters love repeat winners, but not back-to-back (apologies to Lamar Jackson).
- MVPs put up great numbers but limit turnovers (apologies to Allen).
- MVPs win a lot of games; they're usually No. 1 seeds in their conference.
- Preseason long shots have been the norm of late.
- EPA + CPOE is the best single MVP predictor.
With those criteria in mind, Mahomes stands above the rest, fulfilling five of the six criteria. While Allen checks four of the six boxes, turnovers may be a hinderance. Only one MVP over the last 17 seasons has had 13 or more interceptions, and Allen has thrown 13 or more picks in each of his last three seasons.
Still, it's Allen who has the slight nod in the EPA + CPOE (expected points added + completion percentage over expected) circuit. He ranks No. 3 on that mark through Week 1, while Mahomes stands at No. 5.
The top two candidates according to EPA + CPOE, Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold, don't figure to have much staying power. And No. 4 on the list is Derek Carr, who had the benefit of going against the Panthers' defense during Week 1.
San Francisco quarterback Brock Purdy ranks No. 6 in that advanced metric and stayed at +1600 to win MVP after an all-around performance against the Jets on Monday Night Football. Purdy finished No. 1 in EPA + CPOE in 2023 among all eligible quarterbacks, but he finished No. 4 in the final vote for MVP.
Another notable riser this week was C.J. Stroud, who ranks No. 6 in EPA + CPOE. His MVP odds went from +1100 to +850 after a 24-for-32, 234-yard, two-touchdown performance in a win over the Colts.
Meanwhile, the quarterback who slipped the most is Deshaun Watson, who launched himself completely off the aforementioned board with a stinker of a performance in Week 1. And in a lawsuit that came to light on Monday, Watson was hit with yet another sexual assault and battery accusation, opening up the chance of a suspension or even a voided contract.
