2024 NFL MVP Odds, Picks: Aaron Rodgers Is the Bet To Make

It's time to wrap up our season-long awards preview for the 2024 season, and we saved the big one for last: my NFL MVP picks.

What exactly does it mean to be the Most Valuable Player? That conversation can send any sports fan down the rabbit hole for hours, debating the meaning of "value," who deserves the awards, and what the MVP criteria should be.

Lamar Jackson is the reigning MVP after leading the Ravens to a league-best 13-4 record. Jackson was a bit of a controversial choice in a clouded field but ultimately grabbed all but one first-place vote to snag his second MVP, an outlier choice from our usual historical profile.

So, what defines a Most Valuable Player? What makes one player more valuable than another in 2024, and what sort of player wins MVP? Is this just a quarterback club or is the race open? And how much of this comes down to narrative and recency bias at the end of the day?

We'll monitor this award and add to our portfolio all season, so let's set the stage by building a historical winner profile and considering 20 potential MVP cases. I'll explain which names are no bets right now, what sleepers we're keeping an eye on, and the two MVP bets you need to make right now before the season.

• NFL Coach of the Year
• NFL Offensive Player of the Year
• NFL Defensive Player of the Year
• NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year
• NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year

2024 NFL MVP Odds

Who Wins MVP?

Let's take a look back at the past 17 MVP winners and spot some patterns:

• 2023 Lamar Jackson: 3,678 yards, 24 pass TDs, 7 INT, 13-4, 1-seed
• 2022 Patrick Mahomes: 5,250 yards, 41 pass TDs, 12 INT, 14-3, 1-seed
• 2021 Aaron Rodgers: 4,115 yards, 37 pass TDs, 4 INT, 13-4, 1-seed
• 2020 Aaron Rodgers: 4,299 yards, 48 pass TDs, 5 INT, 13-3, 1-seed
• 2019 Lamar Jackson: 3,127 yards, 43 TDs, 6 INT, 14-2, 1-seed
• 2018 Patrick Mahomes: 5,097 yards, 50 pass TDs, 12 INT, 12-4, 1-seed
• 2017 Tom Brady: 4,577 yards, 32 pass TDs, 8 INT, 13-3, 1-seed
• 2016 Matt Ryan: 4,944 yards, 38 pass TDs, 7 INT, 11-5, 2-seed
• 2015 Cam Newton: 3,837 yards, 45 TDs, 10 INT, 15-1, 1-seed
• 2014 Aaron Rodgers: 4,381 yards, 38 pass TDs, 5 INT, 12-4, 2-seed
• 2013 Peyton Manning: 5,457 yards, 55 pass TDs, 10 INT, 13-3, 1-seed
• 2012 Adrian Peterson: 2,097 rushing yards, 12 TDs, 10-6, 6-seed
• 2011 Aaron Rodgers: 4,643 yards, 45 pass TDs, 6 INT, 15-1, 1-seed
• 2010 Tom Brady: 3,900 yards, 36 pass TDs, 4 INT, 14-2, 1-seed
• 2009 Peyton Manning: 4,500 yards, 33 pass TDs, 16 INT, 14-2, 1-seed
• 2008 Peyton Manning: 4,002 yards, 27 pass TDs, 12 INT, 12-4, 5-seed
• 2007 Tom Brady: 4,806 yards, 50 pass TDs, 8 INT, 16-0, 1-seed

1. Quarterbacks win MVP.

It's probably not shocking to find 16 or our last 17 MVPs have been quarterbacks.

I started with 2007 for a reason. That was Tom Brady's 16-0 Patriots season in which he set an NFL record for passing TDs and ushered in the modern passing era. The previous two years saw Shaun Alexander and LaDainian Tomlinson win MVP rushing for NFL records 27 and 28 TDs in a bygone workhorse RB era.

The only non-QB MVP in the last 17 seasons was Adrian Peterson, who nearly broke the all-time rushing record. And even including those three RBs, 21 of 24 MVPs (88%) this century have been QBs.

Cooper Kupp is the only non-QB to get a first-place MVP vote in the past six years. He got exactly one (1) vote. This is a quarterback award, and we won't consider any other position.

2. We love repeat MVP winners.

Did you notice how often the same names came up over the past 17 years?

Jackson won a second time, the year after Mahomes snagged a second. Rodgers sniped four of the 16. Three more went to Peyton Manning and three others to Brady. That's 82% of all MVPs — 14 of the 17! — to the same five Hall of Famers.

That's why the average MVP in this stretch is just over 30 years old because these aging superstars keep winning. Outside of Brady, Manning and Rodgers, the average MVP is 26.0 years old, with six of the seven age 27 or younger.

Manning even had a pair of MVPs before this stretch. Looking further back, 24 of the past 35 MVPs were won by Jackson, Mahomes, Rodgers, Brady, Manning, Kurt Warner, Brett Favre, Steve Young and Joe Montana. That's 69% of all MVP trophies — more than two out of three — to the same nine dudes everyone knew were all-timers.

MVP greats win again and again.

3. … But usually not consecutive winners.

Aaron Rodgers was an exception to the rule in 2021-22.

Jim Brown won the first two MVPs ever in 1957-58. Since then, only five men have won MVP in consecutive seasons, with only Rodgers and Manning this century.

Think how unlikely that is: 69% of all MVPs go to the same guys who keep on winning year after year, but rarely the same guy in back-to-back years.

MVPs repeat — but rarely consecutively.

Bettors Buyer Beware: Lamar Jackson.

4. We need some serious MVP statistical production.

Check out the average stat line for an MVP QB during these 17 years: 4,413 passing yards, 40.4 passing TDs, and 8.3 interceptions. Not a bad season of work! And we probably need even higher numbers since passing only continues to increase and those numbers are mostly from 16-game seasons.

That's about 285 yards and 2.5 TDs a game, and those numbers go up even further if we exclude Lamar Jackson and Cam Newton, who did much of their damage on the ground. The touchdowns especially stand out, with 11 of the 16 hitting extreme outlier passing TD rates in their MVP season.

Six of the 16 threw double-digit interceptions, so 10-12 picks are not necessarily disqualifying if the rest of the profile is great, but only one MVP had more than that.

Bettors Buyer Beware: Josh Allen.

5. We need a winner — like, a big-time, serious winner.

Rule No. 5 is the most important takeaway, and it's what drives the narrative portion of the MVP award. Like it or not, QBs get the most credit for wins and losses, and we need a winning quarterback.

Our 16 quarterback MVPs went 214-45, a sparkling 82.6% win rate. That's a 14.0-win pace over a 17-game season — and that is a lot of wins.

Our MVPs finished as the 1-seed a whopping 13 times (81%), plus twice as a 2-seed. The only one outside the top-2 seeds was Manning in 2008, an unlikely and probably bad winner.

6. Long shots have dominated lately, but for proven elite QBs, shorter odds are OK.

Lamar Jackson was a bit of a surprise MVP after starting the season at +1600, but longer-shot MVPs have kind of become the norm. Seven of the last nine MVPs began the season at +1100 or longer, with only 2022 Patrick Mahomes and 2017 Tom Brady as exceptions.

That reverses a trend from the previous six years, where only one winner started the season longer than +800. Because so many elite QBs repeat as MVP, favorites tend to be in the mix. But if you're betting on someone with shorter odds, it better be a future Hall of Famer who's won it before — aka Mahomes.

Though, it's not like new long-shot winners have stuck around. Three of our last 12 MVPs never received a vote before their MVP win and never got another vote since. For most mere mortals, you get one shot and one shot only at your peak outlier MVP season.

Bettors Buyer Beware: Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott, Brock Purdy.

7. Advanced metrics tend to be great predictors of MVP voting — in season.

The invaluable website RBSDM tracks Expected Points Added (EPA) and Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE) to measure QB value, along with a composite EPA + CPOE to rank the league's best.

Over the last decade, every MVP but two finished the season top-two in EPA, and seven of the 10 finished No. 1. The same was true for EPA + CPOE. Every MVP but Jackson (2023) and Newton finished top-two in EPA. Rodgers led the league in both of his recent MVP wins, and Mahomes did the same in his last MVP season.

For now, that doesn't help us much until we get some season data, but it's a great tool to keep an eye on as the season progresses. History says EPA is a great MVP predictor.

So what are we looking for in an MVP winner?

This is an individual award, but it's really a team accomplishment. We need a QB capable of a 13-win season and a run at the 1-seed, and they need to have a real shot at 4,500 yards and 40+ TDs.

OK, let's get to the candidates.

Let's Have the Lamar Jackson Conversation

Lamar Jackson, Ravens +2000

I thought Jackson was a terrible 2023 MVP choice, but that's a column for another day.

The truth is that every major candidate was flawed. Jackson lacked counting stats and fell far short in advanced metrics. Josh Allen didn't win enough and had too many turnovers and clunkers. Dak Prescott fell short of the 1-seed and didn't win his big games. Brock Purdy checked every box but got disregarded as a Kyle Shanahan product and lost one big game at the wrong time. Folks even tried to talk themselves into a non-QB, with Christian McCaffrey and Tyreek Hill finishing in the top six, though no first-place votes.

In the end, voters tried to get cute but largely outsmarted themselves and ended up going with the laziest choice on the board — just the QB of the one team that got to 13 wins, even though that team was carried to its record with elite defense, special teams, and coaching. The offense was the worst part of the team and got exposed in a playoff loss. Jackson feels like the Derrick Rose 2011 MVP, a guy everyone liked on a defense-first team that won a bad MVP vote over a more deserving candidate.

So, was Jackson an outlier, or are these historical trends in trouble? Neither.

Jackson won big TV games at just the right time, it was a down MVP year lacking top individual candidates and elite teams, and Jackson didn't have the stats or advanced metrics but was still the same thing voters always pick in the end — the QB on the team with the most wins.

He's not a great pick this year for any number of reasons. The stats and metrics probably (still) won't be there, Derrick Henry likely steals some of his TDs, and the Ravens lost a lot on the offensive line and could see a step back on defense after a major brain drain.

Only five players ever have won consecutive MVPs, and Jackson has a serious narrative problem after choking yet again in last year's playoffs. Call it the Joel Embiid problem. Jackson isn't winning another MVP until he proves he can win in the postseason.

Little Reason to Believe Voters Would Credit Them

Brock Purdy, 49ers +2000
Jared Goff, Lions +2500
Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins +2500
Kirk Cousins, Falcons +4000

Going by our historical profile above, Brock Purdy should have won MVP last season going away.

Purdy finished first place in virtually every QB advanced metric, many by a mile. He finished top five in passing yards and TDs and averaged almost 10 yards a throw for an entire season, and he led what was by far the best offense in the league with the second-most wins.

And for all those efforts Purdy got zero first-place MVP votes and finished outside the top three anyway.

Voters have made their decision on Purdy, and on the other guys in this tier. They're system producers, quarterback jukeboxes that elite playcallers put a quarter in and scheme up another winner. They don't get credit for the wins or the stats or anything else, especially with elite weapons around to soak up praise.

Any or all of these four may well be "in the conversation" at various points this season. The advanced metrics will likely be there, especially for Purdy and Tagovailoa. The counting stats should be, too.

Won't matter. Voters have spoken. If Purdy isn't winning last year's wide-open race, we can't bet these system quarterbacks for MVP until voters tell us otherwise.

Not Enough Winning for a Team Award

Matthew Stafford, Rams +3000
Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars +3000
Justin Herbert, Chargers +3500
Anthony Richardson, Colts +3500
Kyler Murray, Cardinals +5500

MVP is a team award. Remember, the last 16 QB MVPs have won at a 14.0-win pace over a 17-game season and finished as a top-2 seed all but once.

You cannot place a bet on a quarterback to win MVP unless you seriously believe they can push 13-plus wins and threaten the No. 1 seed. And that's too much to ask for any of these five.

Matt Stafford has been a trendy MVP sleeper and doesn't make any sense. He's a huge health risk with his history at age 36 and offensive line injuries already mounting, and he's also playing with a defense that was not good last year and that now lost DC Raheem Morris and Hall of Famer DT Aaron Donald. The Rams may have the worst defense in the league. Even Sean McVay's offense can't win 13 games if that's the case.

Trevor Lawrence and Justin Herbert tumbled a bit in my QB rankings this season, and it's time these two show it on the field before we keep crediting the tools. Herbert lost all his top weapons and probably loses a heap of pass attempts in Greg Roman's offense, and Lawrence has a subpar offensive line and a bad play-caller in Press Taylor. He also has a brutal schedule to start, so you certainly can't bet him now.

Anthony Richardson and Kyler Murray are more intriguing candidates because voters have shown an interest in these dual-threat QBs. Murray played at an MVP level for the first half of his last healthy season, but his defense might be as bad as Stafford's. Richardson is a complete unknown who could rush for a lot of yards and scores, but you're effectively betting on a rookie to win 13 games and an MVP.

These guys are 1% or lower to win MVP in 2024. They're just non-starters.

So, we've now ruled 10 of our 20 candidates out now. How about a guy who can?

The Correct and Clear Favorite

Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs +500 (BetMGM / BetRivers)

Do I even need to make a case for Mahomes?

Patrick Mahomes is the best player in the world, a two-time MVP, and a three-time Super Bowl MVP. He has a great offensive line, a great coaching staff, and much-improved receiving corps on a great offense. In five of his six seasons as an NFL starter, Mahomes has won 12 games, finished top-three in EPA, led a top-two DVOA offense, and made the conference championship or more.

So yeah, Mahomes is pretty good, and he's also playing in a soft division despite a first-place schedule, with two of the three teams starting a new quarterback and two of them breaking in new coaches as well. Add in a great Chiefs defense and special teams and Mahomes is set up perfectly for another run at the No. 1 seed.

That said, Mahomes is coming off the worst regular season of his career, the one time he didn't check all those boxes above. And while it's easy to blame that on bad receivers, he also lost OC Eric Bieniemy, has a declining Travis Kelce, and still hasn't figured out his tackles. He also starts the season against the Ravens and Bengals, so there's a pretty solid chance of a loss those first two weeks and a dip in this price.

Mahomes is the clear, easy MVP favorite, and if you only want to make one MVP bet all season and want the best chance to win, he's the pick. Even with shorter odds at +500, I show clear value on Mahomes. I wouldn't price him longer than +300.

I'll never stop you from on betting Mahomes or adding him to your portfolio. This is a bad price. But there will likely be an even worse price available later while the media candidate du jour gets odds. Look to add Mahomes later.

Four Clear No Bets — For Now

C.J. Stroud, Texans +1000

This is an insane price and a sucker bet.

The Texans are this year's media hype team after they finally noticed Texans Island after a big playoff run, then saw Houston add Joe Mixon and Stefon Diggs, plus a bunch of recognizable veteran defenders like Danielle Hunter and Denico Autry.

But don't forget, those darling Texans were a couple of plays away from missing the postseason entirely, and for all the C.J. Stroud hype after an awesome rookie season, he still finished outside the top 10 in both EPA and CPOE. The Texans have an average offensive line at best and no rushing attack to be found, and the defense last season was average overall and bad against the pass.

Houston is a good team but not a great one yet. The Texans are my seventh-best team in the AFC, in the thick of the playoff hunt mostly because of the weak AFC South, and they'll face one of the toughest schedules in the league. The Texans play four tough NFC North opponents along with the Bills, Dolphins, and Jets, but the rest of the division plays those teams too. Each division team has three unique opponents, and Houston's are against the Chiefs, Ravens and Cowboys, which is a brutal draw.

Everyone loves OC Bobby Slowik right now, but can he tone down his heavy-handed run game to feature Stroud, and will the two of them adjust to defenses that inevitably take away the deep ball and force Stroud to attack short and deal with pressure, two areas of his game that remain vulnerable?

It's just too much to ask for a sophomore QB on an unproven team, a guy being priced effectively as the second favorite somehow. C.J. Stroud is the single worst MVP bet on the entire board.

Joe Burrow, Bengals +1000

Burrow is coming off a miserable season plagued by injuries, which have unfortunately has been a theme in his career — and there are whispers out of camp that the wrist injury is still bugging him heading into the new season.

Burrow passed for around 4,500 yards and 35 TDs in his last two healthy seasons, so the production should be there with Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins around. But Burrow won't get much help. The offensive line is subpar, the defense probably is too — and easily the worst in a tough division — and the coaching hasn't done a great job elevating this offense either.

The Bengals play the Chiefs and Ravens the first five weeks, Chase is uncertain to start the season, and we still don't know if Burrow is healthy. He's an easy no bet right now with odds effectively tied for second on the board.

Jalen Hurts, Eagles +1400

Hurts probably blew his best MVP shot two years ago. This year's Eagles have a worse offensive line with C Jason Kelce retired, which could kill the Tush Push that helped Hurts get so many easy TDs, and Hurts has never really had the passing numbers or metrics to win this award.

That could change in new OC Kellen Moore's offense, with Hurts expected to play more of a traditional QB role, but that could also lead to a rocky transition, especially with the changes on the O-line.

The variables here leave the runway for Hurts' upside, but there are just too many questions to invest in now at a short price. Give Philadelphia at least until the Week 5 bye to settle in and see how Hurts looks in the new offense.

Dak Prescott, Cowboys +2000

The Cowboys have gone 12-5 three straight seasons, and Dak Prescott ranks top-two in non-turnover EPA each of the past two seasons and was probably going to win this and cash our MVP tickets before losing to the Bills and Dolphins around the holidays.

From Week 8 forward, Prescott paced to nearly 5,000 yards and 46 TDs but also lost his three biggest games. He enters the new season with Dallas worse at offensive line, receiver, and running back, and with a banged-up defense drastically switching schemes. Prescott also has a narrative problem since he has a reputation for losing the biggest games, though he could flip that with a monster year on an expiring contract.

At the very least, don't bet on Prescott now. He starts with three games against really tricky Browns, Saints and Ravens defenses so this number should only get longer.

The four guys in this group have a real shot to win the award, but they're priced too poorly to bet right now. How about two long shots priced incorrectly in our favor?

Two Long Shots I Can't Help But Nibble

Deshaun Watson, Browns +7500

Look, there's a pretty good chance Deshaun Watson just isn't an NFL quarterback anymore.

That might honestly be the median outcome at this point after three totally lost seasons. But it makes sense Watson would play poorly on a new team after almost two years out of football, and again a season later with a throwing shoulder injury. The last time he played a healthy season, Watson was a top-six QB.

If that guy is still in there somewhere, Watson could become a shock MVP candidate. We already know the defense is great, and the Browns have a top offensive line and should give Watson a much better-fitting offense with the hire of OC Ken Dorsey. If Watson plays like a top-10 QB, the Browns could win enough games to push for the No. 1 seed.

The Browns have a tough opener against the Cowboys but then play the Jaguars, Giants, Raiders, and Commanders. That's a real chance for Watson to get some confidence if things click early, and then who knows?

Geno Smith, Seahawks +15000

I can't stop thinking about new OC Ryan Grubb being the absolutely perfect play-caller for Geno Smith.

Smith grades out as the best deep ball thrower in the entire NFL — a 99.9 grade at PFF last season — and now steps into Grubb's offense that saw Michael Penix bomb deep balls all season at the University of Washington to a trio of talented receivers. That's a perfect fit for Geno's strength and his electric trio of pass catchers, DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Tyler Lockett.

Even connecting on one additional 50-yard bomb every couple of games is an extra 400 yards and eight scores. That could pile up counting stats in a hurry, and Smith would have a heck of a narrative case with his career comeback arc. The offensive line probably won't help, but Mike Macdonald's defense could.

They're my No. 5 ranked defense, and I have Seattle as one of six teams battling for the top of the NFC, all within 0.5 projected wins of one another. That makes the Seahawks live for the No. 1 seed, and it could mean Smith gets his moment "in the conversation," especially if he pops right out of the gates against the Broncos and Patriots, two of the worst teams in the league.

Are Geno Smith or Deshaun Watson ultimately going to win MVP? No, almost certainly not. But I think they're top 10 candidates and the NFL is a funny league, and there's a good chance at least one of these guys has an MVP moment at some point this season.

We've covered 17 names, but only one (Mahomes) with better than a 5% chance of actually winning MVP. That leaves three names, so let's look at two more guys you'll want to keep a close eye on and get to my pick.

Two Guys Who Could Really Win This Thing

Josh Allen, Bills +900 (DraftKings)

Josh Allen might actually be more valuable to his team than any other player in football.

Allen is the Bills offense, with the entire offense built around his arm and his legs, basically a one-man top-three-DVOA offense. Allen has finished top five in MVP voting three times in the last four years, and history says that means he'll likely win one of these at some point.

This year, the narrative practically writes itself after the Stefon Diggs trade, a great facsimile to Mahomes winning MVP two years ago after Kansas City traded Tyreek Hill and Pat got all the credit. If the Bills keep rolling with no standout weapons, Allen will have a great story, and he's been a top-two fantasy quarterback for four straight seasons. That means we know the production will be there. In addition to the passing, Allen had 15 rushing TDs over his final 13 games last season too.

The interceptions are a serious problem for voters. Allen has thrown 15, 14 and 18 picks over the last three seasons, and though some of those aren't as bad as they look and the fact that he makes up for them with sack avoidance and big plays, history says MVPs don't throw that many picks — just one MVP has over 12 since 2021.

Allen also continues to have three or four really bad games a season where he seems to lose his mind and single-handedly cost his team games. Even one of those games at the wrong time could cost him MVP.

Allen can win this — but you absolutely should not bet on him right now.

He'll play the Dolphins, Ravens, Texans, and Jets the first six weeks of the season, three of the four on the road. There will be a better buy point later, and Allen gets several chances for an MVP moment with games against the Chiefs, 49ers, and Lions waiting toward the end of the season. If you want in, you'll get your chance later.

Jordan Love, Packers +1500 (Caesars)

This name might surprise you, but Jordan Love wouldn't even have to make a leap to be in MVP contention — he already played like one in the back half of last season.

From Week 11 forward once he settled into his debut season, Love went 6-2 with a pace of 4,600 yards, 38 TDs and two interceptions. By comparison, Aaron Rodgers' last MVP season in Green Bay: 4,100/37/4. That awesome Love finished included wins against the Lions and Chiefs, and he finished top five in EPA + CPOE on the season and was second in the league in EPA from Week 11 on, behind only Purdy.

We've seen occasional MVPs make a "sophomore leap," and though Love is a veteran, he's effectively a sophomore and clearly figured things out throughout last season. Despite an ugly start, he finished with 4,159 yards and 32 TDs in his "rookie" season, and he will only get more help this year from a young improving receiving corps and a defense poised to take a big step forward with DC Jeff Hafley replacing Joe Barry.

The Packers get a national TV game Friday night against the Eagles to start the season, then face winnable games against the Colts, Titans, Vikings, Rams, and Cardinals, which could easily lead to a 5-1 type start and plenty of buzz. But Green Bay's season will almost certainly swing on its Week 12-to-15 schedule: 49ers, Dolphins, Lions, and Seahawks, all tough games and potential MVP showcases, all on national television.

Love is my fourth MVP favorite, one spot behind Allen. These guys can win this! But the guy Love replaced in Green Bay is my MVP best bet entering the new season.

My 2024 MVP Best Bet

Pick: Aaron Rodgers NFL MVP (+2500)

Tail at FanDuel Using QuickSlip

There's one name among all the MVP candidates that's egregiously mispriced, and it's a name that should be pretty familiar to both bettors and voters.

Aaron Rodgers has won four MVPs, and history says voters love to give this award to guys who have won it before — remember five dudes have won 14 of the last 17 MVPs.

Do I even need to spell out the narrative?

A 40-year-old Rodgers coming off a torn Achilles playing in the New York media maelstrom, leading the Jets back to the playoffs for the first time since 2010? A great Rodgers season would have voters practically falling over themselves to vote for him again.

Yes, Rodgers has to play off that Achilles injury at age 40, and play well. But he was reportedly ready to play nine months ago, and it was an injury to his non-plant foot. Rodgers is also one of the most talented quarterbacks ever and Tom Brady still had five good seasons left at age 40, so why not him?

The Jets already have one of the best defenses in the league and ranked top five on special teams last season. All that was missing was the offense, which was completely neutered by abysmal QB and offensive line play.

The line has been totally remade with the addition of stud LT Tyron Smith and the healthy return of G Alijah Vera-Tucker, positioning the Jets to go from bottom seven to top seven, and Rodgers' quick release will only make the line look better. As for QB, the Jets had the single worst QB room in the league and now get a top-five player at the most important position in team sports.

It's impossible to overstate just how big a swing it will be for the Jets offense with that massive change at QB and O-line. Add in a pair of elite weapons in Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson plus a big new red zone threat in Mike Williams, and there's no reason this shouldn't be a top 10 offense. Rodgers has never finished below 11th in Offensive DVOA in 13 healthy seasons, so why would he start now? He's won double-digit games 10 times.

The last time we saw Rodgers in Green Bay, he played with a broken hand and terrible receivers in a down season, but he won MVP each of the two seasons before that. Over his 10 last healthy seasons, Aaron Rodgers averages 11 wins, with four MVPs in those 10 seasons.

That's almost a coin-flip chance of winning MVP when Rodgers plays a healthy season!

Rodgers heads to San Francisco on Monday night in Week 1, and while you might think that's a tough start, don't forget how much Rodgers loves facing the franchise that didn't draft him No. 1, one that comes in with limited-or-missing Trent Williams, Christian McCaffrey, and Brandon Aiyuk.

Win in his return, then coast to wins against the Titans, Patriots, Broncos, and Vikings, and suddenly the Jets are 5-0 and the talk of the NFL and you're never getting anything near this ticket again. Heck, Rodgers could see these odds halved one week into the season with a big game in San Francisco.

This is a four-time MVP on a great roster with an elite defense and a good shot at a bunch of wins, and we're pricing him outside the top 10 MVP favorites with odds equal to Tua Tagovailoa and Jared Goff and shorter than Brock Purdy?! I am personally insulted.

At +2500, Rodgers is under 4% implied to win MVP. He's my second favorite behind only Mahomes, and I wouldn't price him any longer than +600.

Aaron Rodgers +2500 to win MVP is my single favorite bet of the entire 2024 NFL awards circuit. He's an absolute no-brainer at this number.

When you make your MVP bet this season, just R-E-L-A-X and ride Rodgers all the way to victory.