2024 NFL Offensive Player of the Year Odds: 2 Betting Picks

We're continuing our season-long awards bets for the 2024 NFL season, and NFL Offensive Player of the Year (OPOY) is one of the trickiest.

It's a difficult market to attack, effectively asking us to predict a totally unpredictable statistical outlier, and it's often better to bet during the season once we get some numbers. This can be a better market to bet a couple of weeks into the season with at least a taste of some data.

Still, we can always build a historical profile on recent winners, create an OPOY watch list, and start to build a winning position for the 2024 season.

• NFL MVP
• NFL Defensive Player of the Year
• NFL Coach of the Year
• NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year
• NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year

NFL Offensive Player of the Year Odds

Who Wins Offensive Player of the Year?

Let's take a look at the 10 most recent players to win OPOY and the numbers they put up in their winning seasons:

• 2023 — RB Christian McCaffrey: 2,023 scrimmage yards, 21 TDs
• 2022 — WR Justin Jefferson: 128 catches, 1,809 yards, 8 TDs
• 2021 — WR Cooper Kupp: 145 catches, 1,947 yards, 16 TDs
• 2020 — RB Derrick Henry: 2,141 scrimmage yards, 17 TDs
• 2019 — WR Michael Thomas: 149 catches, 1,725 yards, 9 TDs
• 2018 — QB Patrick Mahomes: 5,097 yards, 50 TDs
• 2017 — RB Todd Gurley: 2,083 scrimmage yards, 19 TDs
• 2016 — QB Matt Ryan: 4,944 yards, 38 TDs
• 2015 — QB Cam Newton: 4,473 pass/rush yards, 45 pass/rush TDs
• 2014 — RB DeMarco Murray: 2,251 scrimmage yards, 13 TDs

1. The OPOY needs to put up outrageous, outlier, totally unpredictable stats.

This is the key takeaway. Just look at the average OPOY production by position over the past decade:

• QB: 4,600 yards and 44 TDs
• RB: 2,125 yards from scrimmage and 17.5 TDs
• WR: 140 catches for 1,800 yards and 11 TDs

That's some truly outrageous production over a full season — over 100 yards a game for running backs and wide receivers, and almost 300 yards and three touchdowns per game for quarterbacks.

And remember, most of the numbers above came in 16 games, so the stats project even higher now. If you bet on a quarterback to win OPOY, you're effectively betting on him putting up 5,000 yards and pushing 50 TDs. Bet on a running back or a receiver and your guy better be pushing 2,000 yards.

They might as well just call it the Shockingly Great Stats Award, or perhaps just the Fantasy Football League Winner Award.

That's why this award is tough to bet on right now, while we're just guessing at wild outlier stats. But what trends can we find outside all the crazy numbers?

2. OPOY is not an MVP consolation prize.

That's the popular narrative: that we just give OPOY to whoever was really good, but not quite the MVP. It's what voters used to do with Drew Brees for years, but that hasn't been the case for a while now.

Actually, five of the past 12 OPOYs also won MVP — Adrian Peterson and all four QB OPOYs. There was only one MVP runner-up and one third-place winner.

You usually get a far better price on OPOY than MVP. If anything, you might consider OPOY as a better-priced MVP proxy for your favorite quarterback, but not a consolation prize.

3. OPOYs aren't *just* stats — they also win a lot of games.

This is a statistical award, but it turns out that winning matters too.

Then again, that shouldn't come as a huge surprise. Offense wins, and these guys are putting up monster numbers. If you play well enough to rack up this many yards and TDs, your team will probably win a bunch of games, too.

Every OPOY over the past decade won 10 games, and all but one won 11. The average OPOY won 12.0 games. That's not shocking considering a bunch won MVP too, but it does help narrow the field a bit. We'll set our minimum at 11 wins with the extra game on the schedule.

4. The OPOY winning position might be shifting — to wide receiver.

Over just the past decade, we've seen four QBs, three RBs and three WRs win this award. Not particularly helpful. But zoom out and there's a hint of a pattern starting to emerge.

From 1996 through 2003, running backs swept all eight OPOY awards. Then, from 2007 through 2016, the award shifted toward quarterbacks as seven QBs won in 10 years.

But could this award be shifting toward wide receivers? Before Michael Thomas won OPOY in 2019, no wideout had won the award since Jerry Rice in 1993. Now, we've had three WRs in five seasons.

Is this the era of the superstar WR winning OPOY? I believe it is, and we'll bet and handicap accordingly.

So what are we looking for in an Offensive Player of the Year?

We need our OPOY to post crazy, outlier stats and they need to win 11+ games. Additionally, we may be moving into the era of wide receivers winning OPOY, so we should bet accordingly.

No Repeat Winners Allowed!!

RB Christian McCaffrey, 49ers +850
WR Justin Jefferson, Vikings +1400
RB Derrick Henry, Ravens +5000
WR Cooper Kupp, Rams +8000

There's one other rule we didn't get to above — no RB or WR has won OPOY multiple times since Marshall Faulk won it three straight times from 1999 to 2001. Everyone else is one and done.

That's bad news for defending OPOY Christian McCaffrey, still a co-favorite at some books. It's not great for Justin Jefferson either, who won two seasons ago. Henry and Kupp are long shots but also unlikely to win this again. We need outlier production! Once you have a crazy outlier season, that outlier is now the expectation.

Outliers are outliers for a reason.

It Looks Like the Era of the OPOY Receiver

RB Breece Hall, Jets +1700
RB Bijan Robinson, Falcons +2000
RB Saquon Barkley, Eagles +3000
RB Jonathan Taylor, Colts +3500
RB Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions +5000
RB Kyren Williams, Rams +6000
QB Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs +6000
RB De'Von Achane, Dolphins +6000
QB C.J. Stroud, Texans +6500
QB Josh Allen, Bills +7000
QB Lamar Jackson, Ravens +7000
QB Anthony Richardson, Colts +7500

It's too soon to know for sure if this is the era of the WR for OPOY, but that's the angle I'm playing until proven otherwise. Quarterbacks win MVP, and voters appear to be using OPOY more and more to reward the top RB or WR, and it's a passing league.

At the very least, I'm not paying anything short of 50-to-1 for a non-WR. Breece Hall shouldn't even be the Jet with the best odds, and Bijan Robinson has big upside but let's see it manifest in the new offense.

If I had to play one name on this list, it's De'Von Achane. He averaged an absurd 7.8 yards per carry last season, already a huge outlier, and he can score on any touch with his speed. Raheem Mostert is older and injury-prone.

If Achane stays healthy and continues to be anywhere near this explosive — say 6.5 YPC — then 13 carries and three catches a game could push him near 2,000 scrimmage yards and put him in contention. At the very least, he certainly looks like a potential fantasy football league winner and someone I'm investing in on long-tail positive outcomes. Bettors can ride the Achane escalator:

We're not going to go through every remaining option, but allow me to make the case for 10 wide receivers we're officially putting on our 2024 OPOY watch list — and two I'm betting right now.

The 2024 OPOY Wide Receiver Watch List

WR Davante Adams, Raiders +8000

Adams saw his numbers dip last season and maybe that's that, but he also had over 1,500 yards each of the prior two seasons and 43 TDs the previous three. Still a tough sell considering his lack of both quarterback and winning upside.

WR Amari Cooper, Browns +15000

Cooper is the longest shot on this list after finishing last year's regular season with a monster 11-catch, 265-yard game. He exploded late under Joe Flacco and now gets to play next to Jerry Jeudy on a good team with a QB who can throw that deep ball all season — be it Deshaun Watson or Jameis Winston.

WR Drake London, Falcons +5000

The last time Kirk Cousins played a fully healthy season, his go-to WR won OPOY. Drake London hasn't had enough counting numbers in his entire career to contend for one OPOY season, but he's supremely talented and could be ready to break out in a more balanced Zac Robinson offense with an accurate passer getting him looks.

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, +2000

St. Brown is an elite receiver, in part because he stays on the field nearly every play because of his blocking ability, but that also seems to wear him down and leave him banged up at times.

St. Brown's counting numbers have been great but are more floor than ceiling with only two multi-score games and two 125-yard games the last two seasons combined. His floor is very high, but this award is about his ceiling.

WR Chris Olave, Saints +15000

Olave was one of my two preseason bets for this award a year ago, and it didn't go well. Olave wasn't terrible but his 87/1123/5 line certainly didn't hit the OPOY ballot.

Underlying metrics still say Olave is a great route runner and maybe a star in the making, so maybe he'll see more consistent looks in the new Klint Kubiak offense after Derek Carr just never really looked comfortable last season.

WR Ja'Marr Chase, Bengals +1200

Chase opens among the preseason favorites once again, but his numbers continue to trend downward after 1,455 yards and 13 TDs as a rookie. But he missed five games as a sophomore and then took the brunt of the Joe Burrow injury impact last year.

A healthy year could represent Chase's return to the top of the WRs list.

WR A.J. Brown, Eagles +4000

For six weeks last fall, it looked like A.J. Brown might win this award. He had at least 127 receiving yards in all six games and finished with 831 yards and five scores in that stretch, pacing to 2,355 yards and 14 TDs.

Kellen Moore's new Philly offense could end up a bit less run-heavy than the Eagles have been, and that change represents upside for one of the most physically gifted receivers in the league.

WR Garrett Wilson, Jets +3000

If you want one longer-shot bet for OPOY entering the season, Garrett Wilson is the pick.

Like Olave, Wilson has all the underlying metrics of a future star, even if he hasn't had the production to match just yet. Blame the terrible offensive line and awful quarterbacks trying and failing to get him the ball.

But the 2024 Jets have a much improved offensive line, and they also have a QB with Aaron Rodgers returning from injury. Rodgers loves to lock onto his favorite receiver. In Rodgers' last season in Green Bay with Davante Adams, Adams posted a 123/1553/11 line on a massive 169-target share. The year before, Adams had 18 TDs — and Rodgers won MVP both seasons.

Wilson has the talent to put together a 120/1500/10 season like Adams, but he may need even more to win OPOY.

That leaves us with two names to bet right now for OPOY.

The Two OPOY Bets to Make Right Now

WR Tyreek Hill (+750)

This probably looks pretty familiar to regular readers.

We played Tyreek Hill at +1600 in October 2022, and he finished the season with 119 catches for 1,710 yards but finished fourth in the voting after a downswing to end the year when Tua Tagovailoa got hurt. So we went back to the well last preseason at +2000 and Hill matched his 119 catches for a league-leading 1,799 yards, adding 13 TDs, but fading over the final month again and finishing runner up.

Through 12 games last season — over two-thirds of the season — Tyreek Hill was on pace for 123 catches and an NFL record 2,098 yards with 12 TDs, at least one in all but two games. Then he failed to hit 100 in a game the rest of the way, only got one more score, lost three of the final five games as the Dolphins racked up injuries and fell apart late again, and that was that.

Mike McDaniel is doing something special in Miami, and it starts and revolves around Tyreek Hill. He has become the very definition of outlier stats, and if he ever finishes a season the way he has been starting it, OPOY is a wrap.

Maybe third time's the charm?

WR CeeDee Lamb (+1100)

Lamb finished one spot behind Tyreek Hill in OPOY voting last season with numbers that nearly matched him: 135 receptions, 1,749 yards, and 12 TDs. But while Lamb's numbers mirrored Hill's, their seasons were the exact opposite.

While Hill started out blazing hot, Lamb had a slow start. Outside of one good game against the Jets, he had just four catches in four of his first five games, the last of them an embarrassing Cowboys loss to the 49ers. After one another quality game, Dallas went into its bye week and changed up its offense, moving Lamb all over the formation and making a concerted effort to get him the ball early and often.

Lamb exploded his first game out of the bye week with 12 catches for 158 yards and two TDs. From Week 8 forward, he racked up 101 receptions for 1,274 yards and 11 TDs — practically an entire season's worth of production for even most good players. Had the Cowboys used Lamb like that the entire season, his 17-game-pace numbers from Week 8 until the end of the season would have been 156 catches for 1,969 yards and 17 TDs!

Now that's the sort of outlier production worth noticing — the exact type that wins Offensive Player of the Year.

Pay attention to this OPOY watch list as we get some new stats this fall and start to identify outliers.

For now, let's start our OPOY portfolio with bets on Tyreek Hill +750 and CeeDee Lamb+1100, half a unit each at combined implied odds of about 20%, effectively a +400 Tyreek-CeeDee ticket on the best two receivers statistically in the entire league.