We're digging into season-long awards bets for the 2024 NFL season, and today we're hitting NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year (OROY).
No NFL Draft in history has been more loaded with offense at the top, with a record 14 consecutive offensive picks to start the draft. That includes quarterbacks at each of the first three picks and six of the top 12 overall, and that 14 features a great trio of wide receivers, a star tight end, and our offensive tackles.
That should make for a competitive and fun OROY race. Let's build a historical winner profile, then dive into the top names to consider and make a pick.
Here's what else I've covered already:
- NFL MVP
- NFL Offensive Player of the Year
- NFL Defensive Player of the Year
- NFL Coach of the Year
- NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year
NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | +120 |
| Jayden Daniels | +600 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | +650 |
| Bo Nix | +1100 |
| Drake Maye | +1400 |
| Malik Nabers | +1500 |
| Xavier Worthy | +1900 |
| Keon Coleman | +3700 |
| Ladd McConkey | +3700 |
| Brock Bowers | +4200 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | +4200 |
Who Wins Offensive Rookie of the Year?
1. Big favorites don't tend to win.
Over the past decade, Kyler Murray (+150) and Saquon Barkley (+155) were the only two OROY winners who started the season shorter than +800. History says this isn't typically an award that big favorites win.
Last year, Bijan Robinson started the season as a top fantasy pick and clear betting favorite around. He started around +250 at most books but never really contended.
This season features one of the biggest OROY favorites we've seen in recent years, with Bears No. 1 pick Caleb Williams listed anywhere from +120 to +150 and books effectively setting this up as Williams versus the field.
Jayden Daniels (+600) and Marvin Harrison Jr. (+700) are also below this threshold. Be careful.
2. Almost any position can win, but QBs tend to be the best bet.
Four of the last eight OROYs were quarterbacks. Go back further and it's seven out of 14, and 10 of 20. The math is pretty consistent — there's about a 50% chance the OROY will be a quarterback any given season — and you have to imagine that's even more true in the first draft in league history with six QBs in the first 12 picks.
This used to be a running back's award. Historically, 61% of OROYs played the position. Running backs won five of the first eight OROYs at the start of the century, but have only taken four of 16 since.
We've had seven wide receiver winners in the last three decades — about one every four or five years — but some noticeable misses too. Justin Jefferson had 1,400 yards as a rookie and didn't win, and just last season, Puka Nacua came from out of nowhere to post a historic rookie season of 105 catches for 1,486 yards. He got two of the 50 first-place votes for OROY as C.J. Stroud cruised to victory.
No tight end or offensive lineman has ever won Offensive Rookie of the Year.
3. Draft slot is incredibly predictive; we almost certainly need a first-round pick.
Over the last two decades, a remarkable 17 OROY winners (85%) were drafted in the first round. It gets better. Sixteen of the 20 were top-12 picks. And 12 of them — still 60%! — were taken in the top eight.
C.J. Stroud was drafted second. Garrett Wilson and Ja'Marr Chase went at Nos. 10 and 5. Justin Herbert, Kyler Murray and Saquon Barkley went sixth, first and second. Turns out teams are pretty good at drafting star talent! Of course, it helps that these guys were joining bad teams with a clear path to playing time.
This year, that's not as helpful as usual, considering the entire top 12 were all offensive players. That said, there were three offensive lineman drafted, along with two quarterbacks unlikely to play this year, so that really leaves seven guys: Caleb Williams (No. 1), Jayden Daniels (2), Drake Maye (3), Marvin Harrison Jr. (4), Malik Nabers (6), Rome Odunze (9) and Bo Nix (12). Books have caught on, too, with all but one of those guys at +1500 or shorter.
It's worth noting that RB is the one position to stray from the first-round trend. Alvin Kamara (No. 67) and Eddie Lacy (61) won from outside the first round in the last decade, and Clinton Portis (51), Anthony Thomas (38) and Mike Anderson (189) won earlier this century.
Be careful about betting on a long shot non-RB. Dak Prescott and Anquan Boldin are the only non-RB OROY winners drafted outside the first round in the last 30 years.
4. Voters care more about big stats than winning.
Winning doesn't seem to be a big focus for OROY. Over the last 14 years, only four winners have been on teams that won at least 10 games. In fact, eight of them — over half — played for a team that finished below .500.
Of course, winning never hurts. Any quarterback leading a team to the playoffs will always have a case, as evidenced by C.J. Stroud winning over a better statistical season from Puka Nacua. But Justin Herbert, Kyler Murray, Cam Newton and Sam Bradford won OROY even with bad records, and Mac Jones didn't win despite taking the Patriots to the playoffs.
This just isn't a winner's award — it's about the numbers, and you need a lot.
Over the last decade, a typical OROY RB needs at least 1,300 scrimmage yards and 10 TDs. A winning receiver likely needs around 80 catches, 1,300 yards and 10 scores to even have a shot.
Quarterbacks are tougher because of varying rushing stats, but a typical QB winner has averaged around 4,000 combined yards and 27-to-35 touchdowns, often adding frequent ground production, and always ending up as a top-10 fantasy quarterback.
So what are we looking for in an OROY?
We want a first-round draft pick, preferably a top 12 pick. Any position will do, but QB is typically best. And stats matter much more than winning. But a winning QB, like usual, tends to trump everything else.
Alright, we've got a slew of names to consider in a deep offensive class. Let's look at them in bunches.
Stay Away from Non-RBs Outside the First Round
WR Keon Coleman, Bills +3700
WR Ricky Pearsall, 49ers +8000
WR Adonai Mitchell, Colts +8000
WR Xavier Legette, Panthers +12000
WR Ja'Lynn Polk, Patriots +17000
Everyone loves a good long shot, but history says it's nearly impossible for non-RBs to win outside the first round.
Could Keon Coleman be WR1 for Josh Allen? Depends on what you mean. He could lead the team in receiving TDs as a jump ball option, but Khalil Shakir, Curtis Samuel and Marquez Valdes-Scantling will have clear roles, too, along with tight ends Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox. Coleman is unlikely to get the touches and yards he needs to sniff this award. He's not just going to step into the Stefon Diggs role.
Pearsall and Legette weren't technically outside the first round, but at No. 31 and No. 32 in the deepest offensive first round ever, they might as well be. Both guys are WR3 at best entering the season. So too for Polk and Mitchell, and most of these teams are expected to skew run-heavy, too.
Those long prices may look juicy, but history says you're chasing steam, no matter how great these guys looked in training camp.
No Bet for Now, But Keep an Eye Out
WR Ladd McConkey, Chargers +4000
RB Trey Benson, Cardinals +10000
RB Marshawn Lloyd, Packers +11000
QB Michael Penix, Falcons +12500
You don't need to bet these names yet, but keep an eye on them just in case.
Trey Benson appears to be the main backup in Arizona and has a pretty similar play style to James Conner, and the Cardinals led the league in rushing the back half of last season under OC Drew Petzing once Kyler Murray returned. Marshawn Lloyd is the primary backup to Josh Jacobs in Green Bay with A.J. Dillon out for the year. If either Conner or Jacobs pick up a significant injury, these guys immediately become contenders on opportunity alone.
It's pretty unlikely Michael Penix Jr. plays meaningful snaps this season, but it was pretty unlikely the Falcons would have drafted him at all at No. 8 after already giving nine figures to Kirk Cousins. You never know with Atlanta, and Cousins is coming off an Achilles tear at age 36. History says Penix is in play as a top-12 pick.
As for Ladd McConkey, he probably belongs in the section above. Receivers taken outside the first round don't win, and he never even hit 800 yards in college. But the Chargers depth chart is empty, so McConkey has a real path to being Justin Herbert's go-to receiver, and that went pretty well for Keenan Allen.
These guys almost certainly won't win, but keep a stray eye on them for now.
RB Long Shot Sleepers to Nibble
RB Blake Corum, Rams +8000
RB Jonathan Brooks, Panthers +10000
RB Kimani Vidal, Chargers +25000
The fantasy football world went into panic mode this week when it was announced that Kyren Williams would return punts for the Rams, since that could mean questions about his role as the starting RB. Williams was a breakout star for L.A. last season, but don't forget that he was an unknown fifth-round pick just two years ago.
Blake Corum was a star at Michigan, and his between-the-tackles running style make him a perfect fit for the Rams, who loaded up on the interior of the offensive line and run as successfully and as often as any team in the league. Williams led the league in rushing yards per game last season and averaged over a TD a game. Corum has a shot if he gets that role, though you may need to bet that one blindly now because the number will be gone if he comes out and gets 15 touches in Week 1.
You shouldn't bet Jonathan Brooks yet. He's on the PUP to start the season, so he'll miss at least the first four games, and that number can only get longer. But the Panthers also invested in their offensive line and Brooks was the clear RB1 in the class. Keep an eye on this line after about Week 3 when he's completely buried and forgotten and give it a nibble.
Kimani Vidal is simply a bet on system upside. The Chargers want to run the ball under Jim Harbaugh and OC Greg Roman, and they continue to invest heavily in the line with stud tackle Joe Alt. Vidal ran for 1,661 yards and 14 scores at Troy last year as a power runner with a low center of gravity, and that fits Roman's scheme, with only Ravens retreads Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins in Vidal's way.
Remember, RBs are the one position with a history of long shots winning from outside the first round. This trio is worth throwing a tiny 0.1 or 0.25 unit bet on, just in case.
Vidal is worth a nibble at 250-to-1, and I'll sprinkle a small bet on all three of these guys. But wait on Brooks a few weeks if you can).
The First-Round Receivers
WR Marvin Harrison Jr., Cardinals +700
WR Malik Nabers, Giants +1500
WR Xavier Worthy, Chiefs +2200
WR Brian Thomas, Jaguars +5000
WR Rome Odunze, Bears +7000
TE Brock Bowers, Raiders +5000
We're getting into some of the top contenders now, but I'm still passing on this group.
No tight end has ever won OROY, and Brock Bowers is fighting Michael Mayer for snaps and behind Davante Adams and likely Jakobi Meyers on an offense led by Gardner Minshew. Brian Thomas is an intriguing dynasty target, but he's competing for touches in an egalitarian offense featuring Christian Kirk, Gabe Davis and Evan Engram. Even Calvin Ridley barely topped 1,000 yards last year. Pass.
Xavier Worthy feels like he belongs in that preseason hype tier, even though he was drafted at No. 28. He's an absolute burner and will have some highlight plays this season, but he's clearly behind Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice and others in the pecking order. This is not Tyreek Hill.
It's tough to imagine Rome Odunze getting the numbers competing with D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen, but Allen hasn't looked great in camp and Odunze is more of a WR1 long-term than Moore. Jaxon Smith-Njigba started last season injured and still finished with 63 catches for 628 yards and four scores in Shane Waldron's offense in Seattle, which finished top 10 in DVOA the last two years and now gets Caleb Williams at QB in Chicago.
I honestly don't mind a small bet on Odunze. He's as talented as any WR in the class and in a great situation, and 70-to-1 is a crazy-long number for a top 12 pick this good.
Compare that to the Malik Nabers' and Marvin Harrison Jr.'s hype and pricing at +1500 and +700, respectively.
Nabers literally got the Giants to unretire a jersey number for him, and New York fans are dreaming of an Odell Beckham-esque breakout season. But don't forget the situation Nabers enters. The Giants skew super run-heavy under Brian Daboll, with the leading receiver in either of the past two seasons at just 60 catches. Nabers isn't going to magically turn Daniel Jones into a real quarterback.
Harrison is tantalizing. In 2022, when Marquise Brown was Kyler Murray's go-to receiver before getting hurt in Week 7, he paced to 122/1375/9. Last season, Trey McBride's pace from Week 10 forward with Murray was 113/1143/3. Harrison looks like the clear WR1 in an up-and-coming offense — paired with a bad defense — that will spend most of the season trailing.
But don't forget, Arizona skewed run-heavy under Petzing last season and was really successful running the ball, and you're paying peak price for Harrison. He's being drafted among the top 10 receivers in fantasy football — Puka Nacua was a historic outlier and still finished WR7 — and he's a close third in odds here at +700.
It's tough to pass on these tantalizing receiver prospects, but they're "no" bets at their current pricing.
The Year of the Quarterback
QB Caleb Williams, Bears +150
QB Jayden Daniels, Commanders +600
QB Bo Nix, Broncos +1100
QB Drake Maye, Patriots +1800
At the end of the day, in a draft that tied the all-time record for most quarterbacks in the first round and saw those six selections all made in the top 12 picks, and for an award that literally goes to QBs half the time anyway, it's really hard to get away from this being The Year of the Quarterback.
We've got six options, but really four — and maybe really two.
Drake Maye is officially the backup to start the season, so you can't bet him right now. That price will only drop as he's forgotten about for a few weeks of Jacoby Brissett. Eventually he'll start, and he steps into a terrible situation — an awful offensive line, a conservative run-heavy offense under OC Alex Van Pelt, and pretty bad weapons around him. For my money, New England is the worst team in the NFL.
Maye is a no bet right now because he's literally not playing, but I'll definitely give him a chance if he gets into the lineup before October. Maye was my No. 1 prospect and, bad team or not, history says a QB drafted in the top three has a great shot at this award. If we can add that to our portfolio later at a discount, say +1500 or hopefully longer, we have to do it.
As for Bo Nix, I'll be brief. Nix might technically be a top-12 pick, but selecting a third-round career backup guy at No. 12 doesn't magically make him a top-12 talent, nor a franchise quarterback. If I lose my bet to Captain Checkdown Noodle Arm on a low talent, outdated, poorly coached team, so be it.
+1200!! What are we doing?!
At the end of the day, I believe the two betting favorites are the correct favorites — but priced incorrectly.
There's little question Caleb Williams has an excellent chance to win Rookie of the Year. He's a superb talent with a knack for creating sandlot plays out of nothing, something few guys outside of Patrick Mahomes are able to do, and those highlight plays will go a long ways, no matter how many mistakes or losses pile up.
And they might not! The Bears look pretty good on both sides of the ball, good enough to push .500 and make the playoffs, and we know the QB of a playoff team likely wins this award, especially the No. 1 pick.
And especially the QB of the forlorn Chicago Bears! Do you think Williams could pass for 4,000 yards and 30 TDs his rookie season? Those aren't outrageous totals in the modern NFL. Four guys did it just last season and five more were within a couple scores or on pace before missing time.
If Caleb Williams puts up 4000/30 as a rookie, he will literally break the Bears all-time record for both passing yards and touchdowns in a season. That's absolutely ludicrous — shouts to 1995 Erik Kramer — and would certainly give Williams a strong narrative case for the award, even in a losing season.
And he might lose. Williams starts out against aggressive Dennard Wilson and DeMeco Ryans defenses, and his offensive line isn't great pass blocking. Williams has a propensity to hold the ball a long time and try to make something happen, which often leads to sacks, potential turnovers, and other costly mistakes. This will take time. But OC Shane Waldron and a great trio of WRs will put Williams in position to succeed.
Williams should be in this race all the way, and he would be my outright pick to win it — but nowhere near +150.
Implied 40% is just far too aggressive for a guy who's yet to take an NFL snap in the most loaded offensive draft in history with so many other clear candidates and long shots on the board. You just can't responsibly bet that number.
Jayden Daniels steps into a significantly more tenuous situation in Washington.
The offensive line is miserable, maybe worst in the league. The weapons are lacking after Jahan Dotson was traded. Terry McLaurin is underrated, but Austin Ekeler and Zach Ertz are beyond washed. The Commanders defense looks below average, and the offense could be the worst in the league. This will be a very different setting than the one Daniels won the Heisman with last season at LSU.
That said, Daniels did win the Heisman, and he did it with both his arm and his legs. And history tells us rushing adds a lot of splash to award candidacy, both by way of counting stats and highlights. Since 2010, QB OROYs have averaged 458 yards and 6.5 TDs on the ground. That's helped those QBs average a No. 6.7 fantasy finish, effective a mid-level QB1, a guy we're seeing put up stats all season.
Daniels is an electric, highlight-reel runner. He averaged 70 rushing yards per game his last three seasons in college, and that increased to 95 YPG his final season and 118 YPG his final eight games. Daniels tucks and runs way too quickly for me as a prospect, but that will help his cause for Rookie of the Year, not hurt it.
Even 50 YPG for 14 healthy games is 700 rushing yards, and 70 a game pushes 1,000 yards, something only Lamar Jackson, Justin Fields, and Michael Vick have done at QB in league history.
The all-time QB rushing record is 1,206 yards. That's 71 YPG over 17 games — and it's not out of the question for Daniels.
I have my qualms with Washington OC Kliff Kingsbury, but his offense helped Kyler Murray win OROY in 2019, and Murray was a top-eight fantasy QB all three healthy seasons with Kingsbury. He consistently ran for high production, and as much as I hate all those Kingsbury bubble screens, they too produce numbers.
If Daniels can even play 14 games at 200 yards and one score a game in the air, very modest by modern standards, that's still 2800/14 and comes close to matching what Lamar Jackson does most seasons — and he's a two-time MVP.
Daniels is a real health risk with his style of play and slender frame. We're probably not getting 17 healthy games, and there's always a risk we could get a shortened season like Anthony Richardson last year.
The Commanders also have virtually no shot of a playoff run, so no winner boost either.
That's why I'd put Caleb Williams slightly ahead of Jayden Daniels, were I ranking these two as outright OROY favorites. But bettors don't pick outright, and these two are priced wildly differently. Williams is the significant favorite at implied 40%, while Daniels is a 4x payout at +600, an implied 14%.
Daniels isn't my favorite QB prospect, and I don't love betting a relatively short favorite given the history of this award, but I think he's clearly the best price on the board entering the season — especially since he'll start out with games against the Bucs, Giants, Bengals, and Cardinals, all below average defenses and winnable games.
This price could be halved in a week or two, easily.
When it comes to Offensive Rookie of the Year, I think it's the Year of the Quarterback — and I'm betting on Jayden Daniels at +600 (FanDuel) to be the QB that rises above the fray to take home the award in 2024.
