The 2024 NFL season is finally here, and it's time to kickoff the new season with our preseason Power Rankings and a blowout futures manifesto, along with my NFL picks and predictions.
Below you'll find a mini preview of all 32 NFL teams, ranked from worst to first. Each team has a 10-word thesis at the top to give you a bite-size look at the season ahead, plus my rankings on offense, defense, and coaching.
You'll also see a decision on each team's win total with my usual Bet, Lean, or Pass setup, plus a note on scheduling for each team so you know when to play, and then my favorite futures best bet for each team.
Every one of these futures best bets is an actual recommendation and bet from me, one for every team, plus any of the over/under bets along the way.
There are nearly 100 bets in all, so skim or skip ahead to the teams you're interested and get those last chances futures bets in before the new season kicks off Thursday night!
32. New England Patriots
Offense: 31 | Defense: 26 | Coaching: 31
10 Words
The transition into the post-Belichick era could be pretty bumpy.
Season Outlook
Not sure if you heard, but Bill Belichick is gone. Well, he's not exactly gone — it sounds like he'll be on virtually every pregame show in America this fall — but he's no longer coaching the Patriots for the first time this century.
Belichick's absence represents maybe the biggest brain drain in NFL history. Belichick wasn't just the head coach. He had his hands on the defense, the special teams, the offensive line. His fingerprints were all over this roster, and it was all the little edges in all those areas that made this team special for so long.
Those edges are gone, and they were already fading. The offensive line is an absolute sieve. The special teams are miserable. The offense wasn't really Belichick's but that looks terrible too, with a bad line and no weapons and no Drake Maye to be found just yet.
Somehow many pundits seem to think the defense will be just fine, but why should we believe a unit losing the greatest defensive mastermind in league history won't take a step back? Belichick was so good at weaponizing guys like Kyle Dugger and Jabrill Peppers who didn't fit anywhere else in the league. This defense has always added up to more than the sum of its parts. Why wouldn't Belichick's absence impact that too?
Biggest Questions
- When will Maye play? Jacoby Brissett is a great backup but a placeholder as a starter. At what point will the Pats trust the line enough to throw Maye to the wolves?
- How will those misfit toys defenders work for Jerod Mayo, and how will the defensive front hold up without Matt Judon or Christian Barmore?
Schedule Analysis
It could get ugly quickly for the Patriots. Just look at the first eight games: Bengals, Seahawks, Jets, 49ers, Dolphins, Texans, Jaguars, Jets. that's the toughest opening schedule in the league by DVOA and could absolutely bury New England before its season even gets going.
Win Total: Under 4.5 (Pass)
The Patriots are 3-1 to the under in a post-Tom Brady world after not going under at any point in their final decade with him, but who's counting?
New England is my worst team in the league and favorite to select No. 1 in next year's draft, but this number is just too low to bet under with much confidence.
Futures Best Bet: Patriots to go 0-6 in AFC East +400 (BetMGM)
Even if the Patriots defense is good, it will still be a steep hill to climb in a division where the Bills, Dolphins, and Jets all have their eyes on the playoffs. The disparity in offense from New England to those three teams is night and day, and it would be a shock for the Patriots to even win two of the six division games.
At that point, we're really just betting the difference between one win and none, and at +400, that's an easy play.
31. Washington Commanders
Offense: 32 | Defense: 29 | Coaching: 24
10 Words
They didn't end up getting Ben Johnson or Caleb Williams.
Season Outlook
Not long ago, things were really looking up for Washington — a new owner, a fresh team name, a heap of cap space, a coaching opening and a shot at the top pick in the draft. But the offseason really felt disappointing.
The Commanders themselves were disappointed with the coaching decision, settling for Dan Quinn and a bunch of his retread coaching friends like OC Kliff Kingsbury after their bid for Ben Johnson fell short. They also had to settle for Jayden Daniels in the draft instead of Caleb Williams one spot higher, and the team settled for any number of low-ceiling floor raisers in free agency to fill out the back end of its starting lineup.
The names added are recognizable — Austin Ekeler, Zach Ertz, Marcus Mariota and Bobby Wagner — but far past their prime, much like the coaching staff, so it's hard to imagine these names raising the floor much. Washington has the worst offensive line in the league and a rookie QB that jets from the pocket at the first sign of pressure, so the offense projects as the worst in the league, and the defense may not be much better.
So much for that turnaround.
Biggest Questions
- Quinn had great defensive results with a hyper-aggressive pass rush and secondary, but he has very little to work with on this roster at those positions, so how's that work?
- Can Jayden Daniels overcome a bad offense to win Rookie of the Year (+600) like Kyler Murray did under Kliff Kingsbury's tutelage?
Schedule Analysis
The Commanders start against the Bucs and Giants, a great chance to get off to a good start before reality kicks in.
Win Total: Under 6.5 (Bet)
Washington has only gone over in five of the past 15 seasons, and this is one of the worst rosters in the league with very little to like on either side of the ball.
The only reason not to bet this under is that easy two-game start, but you can probably immediately bet the under for whoever wins that Giants-Commanders game in Week 2.
Futures Best Bet: Commanders to go 0-6 in NFC East +2500
Even with the Cowboys and Eagles both taking a slight step back, both teams project over five wins ahead of the rest of the division. If Washington goes 0-4 against those significantly better opponents, this suddenly becomes +2500 odds on two coin-flip games against the Giants.
Those games come in the first half of the season too, so if the bet survives those two Giants games, there will be a few juicy opportunities to bet a long moneyline and lock in a profit.
It's not legal in most states, but if you can bet it, Dan Quinn is intriguing at +10000 to be the first coach fired. Josh Harris is a billionaire six times over and won't hesitate to jettison this entire staff if things look ugly early and if he doesn't believe this is the right staff for Jayden Daniels.
30. New York Giants
Offense: 29 | Defense: 27 | Coaching: 22
10 Words
Well, at least "Hard Knocks: Offseason" was fun?
Season Outlook
Giants fans are excited about the additions of Brian Burns and rookie WR Malik Nabers after a rousing HBO campaign, but this team is still pretty barren and also lost Saquon Barkley, Xavier McKinney and Darren Waller.
The offense looks terrible. The offensive line rates near the bottom of the league, with Andrew Thomas its only hope, and Nabers can't stop the weapons from ranking bottom five. Daniel Jones is coming off a major injury and looks like a placeholder at best, unless Brian Daboll can work his magic again.
Some have high hopes for this defense and its ferocious defensive line, but new DC Shane Bowen tends to be a pass funnel and this might be the worst secondary in the league. Bowen typically has a great run defense, though, and this unit has ranked bottom five there in three straight seasons.
Biggest Questions
- Daboll will reportedly call the plays again this season in place of OC Mike Kafka. Can Daboll recapture his Coach of the Year magic from two seasons ago?
- The Giants went 6-11 last season, but actually got a bit lucky and outperformed the underlying metrics, which would suggest this team was closer to 4.5 wins. Is New York a sneaky regression candidate?
Schedule Analysis
Winnable games against the Vikings and Commanders to start the season could provide some early false hope, but the Giants are in for a rude awakening with the Browns, Cowboys, Seahawks, Bengals and Eagles up next.
Win Total: Under 6.5 (Bet)
The poor Giants have only gone over their win total twice in 13 seasons (2-10-1). You may want to wait to play until after those first two games, but you might also lose your chance if they're already 0-2.
And yes, we can play both the Giants and Commanders unders. It's pretty tough to see both going over, so worst scenario is eating the vig at 1-1, but both could end up cashing. I project both teams under five wins.
Futures Best Bet: Giants Least Wins in NFL +1000
I've got a tier of four teams at the bottom of the NFL — the Giants, Commanders, Broncos and Patriots. New York is not the worst one of those teams, but they're the only one that didn't just spend a top 12 pick on a QB.
If the Giants season turns sour, this team has every incentive to bench Daniel Jones (contract reasons) and tank games late to secure a top draft pick and a chance to find new direction at quarterback. That extra motivation makes this +1000 playable.
29. Denver Broncos
Offense: 26 | Defense: 30 | Coaching: 21
10 Words
Hey, we're running it back, but with even worse talent!
Season Outlook
The 2023 Broncos weren't good, nor terrible, mostly a forgotten in-between team. Somehow, this year's version has decided to mostly run that back, only without Justin Simmons or Lloyd Cushenberry or Randy Gregory, and with the one significant addition representing a downgrade at QB, even from Russell Wilson.
Bo Nix steps into the starting role from Day 1 and should provide a more stable answer at quarterback, and a more familiar one for Sean Payton and OC Joe Lombardi, given his timing and accuracy on short throws. But Nix is still a rookie, and has just one real weapon to throw to in Courtland Sutton, plus an average-at-best line and run game, so it's hard to get too excited.
The defense wasn't as bad as the numbers looked last fall as they were juiced in the wrong direction after giving up 70 to Miami. Denver's defense even played pretty well for a month, but still has no real strength under DC Vance Joseph.
Denver isn't necessarily awful. It's just also not particularly interesting either.
Biggest Questions
- Can a 24-year-old rookie QB really give Denver a stable offensive plan and eliminate the mistakes and timing issues that plagued Russell Wilson?
- Are we positive Sean Payton wants to be coaching this team, or, at all?
Schedule Analysis
Denver has a winnable slate in the first half of the season, but the schedule from Week 9 on is brutal and includes the Ravens, Falcons, Browns, Bengals and both Chiefs game. If the Broncos are going to do anything, they'll need to start quickly.
Win Total: Under 6.5 (Bet)
The once mighty Broncos have failed to hit their over in eight consecutive seasons, with seven unders and one push during that stretch. And with the loaded second half of the schedule, there could be an opportunity to double down in season if things look grim.
Futures Best Bet: Bo Nix Over 2950.5 Passing Yards (BetMGM)
Consider this less of a bet on Nix and more of one on situation.
Nix was Denver's only significant addition this offseason. He's the immediate future in Denver, and if you can't start a 24-year-old rookie all season from the jump, what are we doing? Even a measly 210 yards a game of check-downs gets Nix over this line in 14 games, and there's no reason to bench the rookie for Jarrett Stidham.
Bets don't have to be fun to cash.
28. Los Angeles Rams
Offense: 8 | Defense: 31 | Coaching: 5
10 Words
My biggest under and fade of the 2024 NFL season.
Season Outlook
The Rams started 3-6 last season, but caught fire late and won seven of their final eight to sneak into the playoffs, but it's like everyone forgot that ugly 3-6 start.
LA's offense should be good again, but the offensive line is already pretty banged up and Matt Stafford is 36 and one hit away at all times from missing time or even retiring. Sean McVay's secret sauce has been his run game, and he's found a new calling card with Kyren Williams running duo behind the league's beefiest interior line.
But even in its hot stretch, the Rams defense last season left plenty to be desired. L.A. addressed the unit by totally remaking its secondary and using its top two picks on the defensive line, but it also lost Super Bowl DC Raheem Morris, LB Ernest Jones, and –oh, right — generational Hall of Fame DT Aaron Donald.
This defense is trending in the wrong direction and hard, and the special teams were historically awful last fall. If the offense falls off even a little, the Rams could take a serious step back.
Biggest Questions
- How will the young front seven perform without Donald soaking up all the attention in the middle, with rookies Jared Verse, Braden Fiske and Omar Speights joining sophomores Kobie Turner and Byron Young in the starting lineup under new DC Chris Shula?
- Are we sure Stafford and/or this offense are elite? The Rams haven't finished top six in Offensive DVOA in the past five years, though it's finished top half of the league in all but the disastrous 2022 season.
- The Rams lost the fewest adjusted injury games of any team, per Aaron Schatz, but they lost the second most the previous season and ranked bottom 10 in that stat six straight seasons before last fall. Matthew Stafford has missed games in three of the past five seasons. Can the stars on this team stay on the field?
Schedule Analysis
A Rams defense that just lost Aaron Donald and Raheem Morris starts the season against excellent Lions, Cardinals, 49ers, Bears, and Packers offenses. There aren't any games off for the defense in the loaded NFC West. It could be a long year for this young unit.
Win Total: Under 8.5 +165 (Caesars, Multi-Unit Bet)
This is my strongest under on the board and a multi-unit play for me, especially at +165. I'm all the way out on the 2024 Rams.
I project L.A. closer to six wins, way under this number and ahead of only the lowly Giants and Commanders in the NFC. The loss of Donald could have a domino effect on this defense, and the offense is already coming off its peak, healthy form. There are just so many more ways for this to go wrong than right.
Futures Best Bet: Last Place in NFC West +700 (BetMGM)
If this thing does go sideways for the Rams, it could go very sideways. I'll give you a handful of angles to pick from, depending on how far out you feel.
I like fading the Rams within the division since the 49ers are loaded and I'm in on the Seahawks and Cardinals. Last place in the NFC West is effectively a head-to-head bet on an Arizona roster that's pretty similar — pretty good offense, terrible defense — or you can just bet on L.A. to lose both Seattle games at +500 (BetRivers) if you prefer. The Rams are also +5000 (BetMGM) to go winless in the division.
The offense is probably too good for now to go winless, but the bottom could fall out hard if Stafford gets hurt again. The Rams are +6000 (bet365) to have the worst record. I've already got them at No. 5, even assuming relative health. If Stafford gets hurt, they'll have every incentive to tank for a top pick and a QB reset.
27. Minnesota Vikings
Offense: 23 | Defense: 8 | Coaching: 16
10 Words
Just a rebuilding year, unless Sam Darnold finds magic beans.
Season Outlook
This was always supposed to be a rebuilding season for the Vikings. That's what happens when you move on from Kirk Cousins, Danielle Hunter and other veterans. It's even more the case when you spend a first-round pick on QB J.J. McCarthy. But now with McCarthy out for the season, things just feel bleak.
The offense has struggled to run the ball under Kevin O'Connell and Aaron Jones is a step forward at RB, but won't get any help from a poor interior offensive line.
Brian Flores' defense could be the saving grace, but it also lost a lot of talent. And all that patented Flores pressure leaves a vulnerable secondary exposed. Add in a terrible special teams and this could be a long year.
Biggest Questions
- Are a potential top-10 defense and the offensive weapons enough of a floor to keep the bottom from falling out this season?
- If Darnold has a Baker Mayfield or Geno Smith type resurgence, is there enough juice here to push for .500 and get into the playoff picture?
Schedule Analysis
If the Vikings don't beat the Giants in Week 1, it could get ugly in a hurry. The 49ers, Texans, Packers, Jets and Lions are the next five games, so Minnesota's season could be over by its bye week if the Vikings aren't careful.
Win Total: Under 6.5 (Pass)
If the defense is borderline top 10 again, that could provide enough of a floor to put an over at risk here, though that tough schedule early certainly puts value on the under, even if bettors need to cash out later.
Futures Best Bet: Dallas Turner to Win Defensive Rookie of the Year +450 (DraftKings)
Dallas Turner feels like deja vu to last year's DROY, Will Anderson.
The Texans drafted a franchise QB, then traded up a heap to get their aggressive defensive-minded coach a stud pass rusher from Alabama and paired him with Jonathan Greenard on the line for a DROY campaign. Minnesota now does the exact same thing, with Turner's pass rushing metrics a carbon copy of Anderson's, and the Vikings even signed Greenard.
This was my pick on draft night at +750, but I still like Turner. Voters tend to give DROY to high draft picks with flashy stats, and Turner should have plenty of opportunities for sacks in the most aggressive defense in football.
26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Offense: 28 | Defense: 20 | Coaching: 28
10 Words
The Super Bowl roster's long gone. Run it back anyway?!
Season Outlook
It feels like the Bucs got here by accident. Last season was supposed to be a rebuilding year, but then Dave Canales helped resurrect Baker Mayfield's career, and that, with just enough from Todd Bowles' defense, got Tampa Bay over the line in a horrible division.
So instead of leaning into the rebuild, the Bucs are now running back a team what wasn't very good to start with and now replaces Canales with unproven OC Liam Coen. Coen has his work cut out with a run game that's been MIA in Tampa for years, and we'll see if Mayfield's leap was temporary or permanent.
Bowles always does a great job with this defense, which has been top half of the league by DVOA in five straight seasons, though they've dropped in that metric in three straight seasons. Bowles loves heavy blitz, but how will that work on a team severely lacking talent at corner and off the edge?
Biggest Questions
- What exactly is the plan here? Tampa Bay is trotting out a lame duck coach and QB, neither of which anyone thinks is the long-term plan, and it feels like the best upside is winning a bad division and exiting the playoffs quickly again. When will the team pivot to the future?
- Mayfield's time to throw dropped under Canales. Will it stay down under Coen? Can Coen add some playaction wrinkles to this offense to make things easier? Or will Mayfield continue to struggle in that area?
Schedule Analysis
Since the Bucs won the division, they play a first-place schedule. That means in addition to facing the Chiefs, Eagles and Cowboys like the rest of the division, Tampa Bay's three variable games come against the Lions, 49ers and Ravens.
It's a very first-place schedule for an extremely not-first-place team.
Win Total: Under 7.5 (Lean)
Returning head coaches with a new offensive playcaller, like the Bucs, are 52-27 to the under since 2015, per @PlusEVAnalytics. The Bucs lack enough talent that those tough games are near certain losses, and the floor is low enough that there really aren't any safe wins on the schedule.
Futures Best Bet: Bucs to Finish Last in NFC South +500 (BetMGM)
If the Bucs do go under 7.5, we're likely better off playing them to finish last in the division at +500 with a much better payout. The Falcons should be safe from last, and I'm high on the Panthers to take a big step forward. The Saints defense might be the best unit in the division starting the season.
If Tampa's season goes south, it could be ugly, and the Bucs will have every reason to push for a high draft pick to get a franchise QB and give this team some direction.
25. Las Vegas Raiders
Offense: 30 | Defense: 19 | Coaching: 32
10 Words
Run the ball and defend; that's old school Raiders football.
Season Outlook
The interim tag is off for Antonio Pierce after a strong finish to the season. It remains to be seen whether that was much more than a financial decision, but the team clearly responded emotionally to Pierce late last season.
The narrative is that the Raiders got right late with an emphasis on running the football, but the reality is that it was the defense that improved. DC Patrick Graham did a great job with this unit, and Maxx Crosby is a star. The Raiders defense quietly finished in the top quarter of the league by DVOA and added Christian Wilkins in free agency.
The offense will likely lean run-heavy behind an improving offensive line, but unless Aidan O'Connell has some untapped potential, the ceiling is capped on that side of the ball with neither him nor Gardner Minshew looking starter-caliber. The Raiders are a decent quarterback away from being pretty frisky.
Biggest Questions
- Will Davante Adams get traded? Adams seems ready to move on, and the cupboard is pretty barren for this offense once he's out of the mix.
- How far can an inefficient, but stable run game and above average defense get you in the modern NFL? The Raiders seem determined to find out.
Schedule Analysis
It's a rough start for the Raiders, especially for the tepid offense, with the Ravens, Browns and Steelers all really difficult defensive challenges over the first six weeks.
Win Total: Over 6.5 (Pass)
I project the Raiders just under seven wins, but if you don't sense my complete indifference to invest in this team in any capacity after reading the past 300 words, I don't know what to tell you.
The Raiders feel like a team that could be frisky and annoying week to week as underdogs.
Futures Best Bet: Zamir White Most Rushing Yards in AFC West +350 (FanDuel)
I bet Zamir White already this spring at +5000 to lead the league in rushing, but he's now priced around half that at most books. That's still a touch long, but I'll pivot instead to the smaller market in the division.
White has little competition at RB for a team that wants to play old school, smashmouth football and run the ball behind a good run-blocking line. Isiah Pacheco appears to be facing some competition for touches in Kansas City, and the Broncos and Chargers look likely to use committees. White is a volume play, and he averaged 21 carries for 99 yards per game over the final four games last season.
24. Tennessee Titans
Offense: 27 | Defense: 18 | Coaching: 30
10 Words
What can Will Levis do with a completely remade roster?
Season Outlook
The Titans you thought you knew are long gone. It's not just Derrick Henry and Mike Vrabel. Ryan Tannehill is gone too, and so are veterans like Kevin Byard, Denico Autry, Sean Murphy-Bunting and Azeez Al-Shaair.
Brian Callahan leads the new coaching staff, and he's somewhat of an unknown since he didn't actually call plays in Cincinnati. He was a package deal with father Bill, the game's great offensive line coach, who has his work cut out for him with what was the worst line in the league a season ago. New DC Dennard Wilson is also mostly an unknown, a defensive backs coach from the aggressive Mike Macdonald Baltimore tree.
New names dot the roster on both sides of the ball. The Titans added J.C. Latham and Lloyd Cushenberry on the line and significantly upgraded their weapons with the addition of Tony Pollard, Calvin Ridley, and Tyler Boyd. The secondary was completely rebuild around L'Jarius Sneed, Chidobe Awuzie and Quandre Diggs.
Whatever you think you know about the Titans, throw it out. This is a completely different team that's invested heavily in the present to see what it's got in Will Levis. The big question now is what Tennessee actually has in Levis and this new coaching staff.
Biggest Questions
- Levis has a cannon for an arm, but he's all flashes and valleys. His 37% Success Rate was brutal, and his 24.6% uncatchable rate ranks dead last among starters. Levis has proven he can hit the occasional home run, but can he string together a few singles and move the offense down the field?
- How good can this defense be under Wilson? The front seven needs work but gets a boost from the Ernest Jones trade, and a remade secondary could be the strength of the team.
Schedule Analysis
It's a tough start for Tennessee, with the Bears, Jets, Packers and Dolphins all teams with minus playoff odds on the slate the first four weeks. This roster will take some time to settle in but even in the AFC South, it can't afford an 0-4 start.
Win Total: Over 6.5 (Pass)
The Titans hadn't gone under for six straight seasons before doing so each of the past two years. Tennessee has a large number of toss-up type games, and this does not feel like a team to play a median outcome on.
Futures Best Bet: Brian Callahan to win Coach of the Year +2500
Either you believe in Levis, the defense, and the coaching staff and should play a long-tail outcome, or you don't and should go the other direction.
I'm personally not a believer, but sometimes as bettors building a portfolio, it can be wise to bet against yourself too. The Titans clearly have a number of paths to upside, and the division is winnable. If things click for Tennessee and the Titans are this year's worst-to-first team, Callahan will have a strong COY resume.
23. New Orleans Saints
Offense: 24 | Defense: 9 | Coaching: 29
10 Words
Running it back again, but the core has gone rotten.
Season Outlook
For a team coming off such a disappointing season, the Saints made precious few changes. OC Pete Carmichael is finally gone after nearly two decades and was replaced by Klint Kubiak, but Dennis Allen and Derek Carr are perhaps surprisingly both still around to lead the way.
Allen leads odds to be the first coach fired and was probably lucky to make it through last season, and Carr has struggled with new playcallers and mostly proven himself to be quite mediocre at this point of his career. Allen's staff is one of the worst in the league, and now the offensive line, once a hallmark for those great Saints teams, looks like one of the worst in the league with T Ryan Ramczyk missing.
Allen's defense had finished in the top quarter of the league in six straight seasons before dropping to league average last year. That unit can still hang and may be the best single unit in the NFC South — damning with faint praise — but the offense hasn't finished in the top half of the league in three seasons.
In the past four years, the Saints have lost Sean Payton, Pete Carmichael, Drew Brees, Mark Ingram, Michael Thomas, Terron Armstead, Ryan Ramczyk, Trey Hendrickson, Sheldon Rankins, David Onyemata, Malcolm Jenkins and others with precious little replacement. It's just a tremendous talent drain.
Biggest Questions
- How will Taysom Hill's usage change under Klint Kubiak?
- Can the Saints weather a difficult schedule early and do what they were supposed to last season — be just mediocre enough to steal a bad division that's there for the taking?
Schedule Analysis
The Saints face the Cowboys, Eagles and Chiefs over the first five weeks. If Allen's team looks ugly in those three games, he could be in trouble early.
Win Total: Under 7.5 (Pass)
Dennis Allen's teams are a perfect 5-0 to the under, so why stop now? The biggest threat to the over may be a dead-cat bounce after an Allen firing. The change at offensive coordinator hasn't gone well for Carr either.
Futures Best Bet: Derek Carr Under 22.5 Passing TDs (Caesars)
Carr has never been a big touchdown guy, averaging just 23.0 over his past seven seasons. That's informing this number, but it's not taking into account the TDs Taysom Hill may steal, nor the possibility that this team pivots toward the future and gives rookie Spencer Rattler some run at some point.
Even as a full-time starter, Carr has gone under this line in four of nine seasons, and he's been within 2.5 three more times. Miss even one game injured or benched and that alone could do the trick.
22. Pittsburgh Steelers
Offense: 21 | Defense: 2 | Coaching: 9
10 Words
Mike Tomlin's streak of .500+ finishes is in serious jeopardy.
Season Outlook
Stop me if you've heard this before, but the Steelers outperformed expectations last fall and enter the new season as a major threat for regression.
Pittsburgh was incredibly lucky in one-score games at 9-2, traditionally coin-flip outcomes, and the Steelers finished with a negative point differential despite the 10-7 record. The defense lucked into playing over 40% of its snaps against backup quarterbacks, per Bill Barnwell, and also got some lucky red-zone stops along the way.
Of course, the Steelers are almost always a candidate for regression. The Steelers are now more than six wins over expectation by Pythagorean win total the last three seasons.
The defense should be great again, like always. T.J. Watt is a menace, Minkah Fitzpatrick is healthy again after missing half the season, and the Steel Curtain can be as good as any defense.
The offense moves in a new direction under new OC Arthur Smith, which should be an interesting transition. Smith loves to run the ball and should find success with a good run-blocking line that's gotten a lot of draft attention from Pittsburgh the last couple years, but the passing game could be a real struggle.
Biggest Questions
- Is Russell Wilson or Justin Fields the right QB for this team — and is the answer neither? Both guys take an eternity to throw the ball and that could be a huge problem behind a bad pass-blocking line.
- Will the defense be elite or just good? The Steel Curtain has finished 14th or better in Defensive DVOA all but two of Tomlin's seasons in Pittsburgh but only top eight six times. Just good may not be good enough.
Schedule Analysis
No team has a more stark schedule contrast than the Steelers. Life is perfectly great for Pittsburgh the first half of the season, with the softest schedule in the league by DVOA, but that's in part because Steelers won't have a single division game until Week 11.
But here's what that means for the schedule over those final eight games: Ravens, Browns, Bengals, Browns, Eagles, Ravens, Chiefs, and Bengals. That is an absolute murderer's row, eight games against teams likely to make the playoffs, and it could finally put an end to Tomlin's incredible streak of .500 or better for good.
Win Total: Under 8.5 (Lean)
The Steelers are 8-2 to the over in the past decade, and everybody knows by now that Mike Tomlin has never finished below .500 so that's exactly where this line sits.
But has there ever been a more obvious in-season under play? Even if Pittsburgh starts the season 7-2, the Steelers still might go under this number — and that line will be up to 9.5 or higher at that point anyway.
Futures Best Bet: Steelers to Finish Last in AFC North -110
I'm fading the Steelers, but we'll get a better line in season because of that schedule disparity.
If you do want to play now, getting a coin flip odds on last place in the division makes sense. I've got Pittsburgh nearly three full wins behind the rest of the division, so it's mostly just a bet on the bottom not falling out on one of those teams with major injuries or regression.
21. Arizona Cardinals
Offense: 18 | Defense: 32 | Coaching: 26
10 Words
The offense is exciting, but the defense holds them back.
Season Outlook
How did you spend your summer? I spent mine trying to talk myself into Cardinals Island.
The offense looks worth investing into. OC Drew Petzing was a wonderful surprise, and this offense lapped the field in rushing DVOA over the back half of the season once Kyler Murray returned. Murray should be fully healthy now, a year removed from his ACL tear, and he's got real weapons in Marvin Harrison Jr., Michael Wilson and Trey McBride.
This offense is going to surprise some folks and could absolutely finish in the top half of the league. Unfortunately, teams have to play defense in the NFL too, and that's where the case for the Cardinals falls apart.
Credit Jonathan Gannon and DC Nick Rallis for trying things, but there's just precious little talent to work with on Arizona's defense outside of safety. The unit looks like the worst defense in the league, with a bullet.
Biggest Questions
- The last time Murray was fully healthy, he played at an MVP level for half a season. He's never played healthy QB in a real (read: not Kliff Kingsbury) system. Is there still a superstar QB in there?
- The defense got unlucky last season with health — sustaining a heap of injuries and also facing the least-injured offenses in the NFL. Is it possible the defense wasn't as bad as it looked?
Schedule Analysis
This terrible defense will face great offenses in the Bills, Rams, Lions, 49ers, Packers and Dolphins in just the first eight games alone. That's great news if you've got Cardinals fantasy players because Arizona's going to need a ton of points to survive, but it could put this team in a huge hole early.
Win Total: Over 6.5 (Lean)
The Cardinals look to be a lively 'dog on any given Sunday, but the defense and offensive line will ultimately hold them back from making too much of a push.
This feels like a midseason over play, once the defense has escaped that brutal start. I'm not sure the Cardinals are a playoff team, but they could be that proverbial team no one wants to play down the stretch late.
Futures Best Bet: Any 2024 Worst-to-First Division Winner -330 (DraftKings)
Almost every season — 19 of the past 21, in fact — a team like Arizona goes from worst in its division one season to first the year after. Some books allow us to just bet on any one of the eight division bottom feeders pulling the feat. Don't let that -330 juice scare you away — that 77% is far short of the over 90% hit rate over the past couple decades, which would make the fair price here closer to -950.
You can find this bet at DraftKings under Team Specials — Mixed.
20. Jacksonville Jaguars
Offense: 19 | Defense: 17 | Coaching: 18
10 Words
What exactly is this Jaguars coaching staff trying to do?
Season Outlook
The Jaguars started 8-3 last fall and appeared to be coasting to a second straight division title before crashing out of the postseason entirely with five losses in their last six games, but even their winning formula wasn't what was expected. The Jaguars were winning with improved defense, mostly in spite of the offense.
Trevor Lawrence has yet to take the next step into the upper echelon of quarterbacks, and it doesn't appear he's getting much help from the coaching, as Doug Pederson again insists OC Press Taylor will call plays, even after last season's failure. The offensive line is also poor, which leaves the run game languishing.
Curiously, the defense actually moved on from DC Mike Caldwell for Ryan Nielsen, whose Falcons badly struggled in pass defense last season. That could be a concern since the Jaguars' secondary is a weak point too. If the defense takes a step back, the offense will have to step forward just to maintain .500 ball.
Biggest Questions
- Will the Jaguars find Lawrence a go-to target? Calvin Ridley is gone, replaced by Gabe Davis and first-round pick Brian Thomas.
- How much do the arrivals of Mitch Morse and Arik Armstead help the Jacksonville trenches?
Schedule Analysis
It's a pretty brutal schedule. The Jags start with the Dolphins, Browns, Bills, and Texans out of the gates, then return to London for a pair of games Weeks 6 and 7, but again chose not to take a bye until much later (Week 12), so they'll have a full jet-lagged month with games against the Packers and Eagles in between.
The second-game-in-London advantage is mostly wasted with the Patriots, and the across-the-pond home away from home continues to cost Jacksonville home games. It didn't cost the team last year but seems far from ideal.
Win Total: Under 8.5 (Lean)
The Jaguars have gone under their win total in 10 of the last 12 years, with only three seasons of better than six wins during that stretch and an average of 5.0 wins.
Credit Pederson for getting this team back into the .500 mix, but there are too many questions at both coordinator spots to invest in the upside, and it should probably just be a division play if so.
Futures Best Bet: Josh Hines-Allen 15+ Sacks +600 (FanDuel)
Josh Hines-Allen changed his name so there will be no more confusion with the Buffalo quarterback, but NFL fans know how he is anyway after a franchise-record 17.5 sacks last season.
Hines-Allen ranked top 10 in the NFL in PFF pass rush grade among edges and finished tied for second in sacks. That wasn't enough to get him a single DPOY vote despite the improved Jaguars defense, but it makes this number worth playing even at a high total at +600 for something Hines-Allen just did last season.
19. Los Angeles Chargers
Offense: 22 | Defense: 28 | Coaching: 6
10 Words
The spine might be great, but the surroundings are bare.
Season Outlook
In many ways, the Chargers had a great offseason.
Jim Harbaugh has been a winner at every stop, and bringing him in should permanently shift the direction in which this franchise is headed if his partnership with Justin Herbert thrives. The Chargers also made smart financial decisions moving on from bad cap and admitting they were not good enough.
But while that all sets the Chargers up well long term, it could have its pain in the present. Gone are Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Austin Ekeler, leaving Herbert with the worst set of weapons in the league. L.A. made another huge investment in its offensive line in Joe Alt, and that will likely pay off down the road, but it came at the cost of giving Herbert a top target this year.
New DC Jesse Minter was another intriguing addition, but the transition from college can take time. The Chargers ended up keeping both Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack around for one more rodeo, but the defense is mostly bereft of talent and has finished in the bottom half of the league in DVOA five straight seasons.
The Chargers have done the smart thing, investing in the most important parts of the team — quarterback, offensive line and coaching. There's just precious little else, and even spines need functional body parts to work.
Biggest Questions
- OC Greg Roman is one of the run-heaviest playcallers in the NFL, and Harbaugh is very conservative. Will those two adjust their typical style and build an offense around Herbert's strengths, or will they feed into his already too conservative play style?
- Is there an NFL starter among the bunch of weapons on the roster? Last year's first-round WR Quentin Johnston already looks like a bust. Josh Palmer and D.J. Chark are fine. Maybe this year's draft investment, Ladd McConkey, will hit at receiver. Rookie Kimani Vidal is an intriguing long shot for Rookie of the Year at +25000 — someone will be running the ball.
Schedule Analysis
The Chargers have an opportunity to hit the ground running with Harbaugh, with a winnable opening three against the Raiders, Panthers and Steelers before hosting the Chiefs.
Win Total: Under 8.5 (Lean)
This certainly felt like a team I'd be investing in with its improvement at coaching and on the offensive line, and the Chargers are an obvious positive regression team after going 3-8 in one-score games last fall.
But Justin Herbert is already banged up and it seems books have priced the presumed Chargers improvement into the odds. The Chargers have gone under in four straight seasons.
Futures Best Bet: Both L.A. Teams to Miss the Playoffs Parlay +224 (DraftKings)
The Chargers look something akin to a .500 team, but that's nowhere near enough in the loaded and top-heavy AFC. Both the AFC East and AFC North have three clear playoff candidates fighting for wild-card spots, and the Chiefs stand in the way in the division.
It could be a year without playoff football in Los Angeles. The Rams are my top under play of the season, so play both together and root against L.A. all season long.
18. Indianapolis Colts
Offense: 12 | Defense: 23 | Coaching: 14
10 Words
The entire thing is one huge bet on Anthony Richardson.
Season Outlook
Last year was disappointing for the Colts in that they really only got three games of data from Anthony Richardson, but the truth is that Indianapolis significantly overachieved. Even without the QB the team built its roster around, the offensive line returned to the top of the league and the Colts won nine games and nearly stole the division in Week 18.
Shane Steichen did a masterful job, significantly raising the floor of this offense even without a ton of talent to work with and maximizing the Colts' chances of winning with aggressive in-game decisions.
This team is built much like Steichen's Eagles offense with a great line, a run-first attitude and an athletic quarterback who can hurt opponents with his arm or his legs. Now, the Colts need Richardson to stay healthy enough to do the thing.
Gus Bradley's defense features a ferocious defensive line with the return of Grover Stewart and addition of the top defensive player taken in the draft, Laiatu Latu. Indianapolis is built to win in the trenches.
Biggest Questions
- What is Richardson? This team has smartly built its entire game plan around finding that answer, but Richardson is still effectively a rookie, and one severely lacking in accuracy and a few other basic QB traits until proven otherwise. He is endgame for Colts, but there's no way to know what that looks like yet.
- Are the Colts due some regression? They won nine games but deserved to win under eight in many models.
Schedule Analysis
It's a relatively tough schedule throughout, as the entire AFC South, but the most difficult stretch comes right smack dab in the middle with Dolphins, Texans, Bills, and Jets games all from Weeks 7 through 11.
Win Total: Under 8.5 (Pass)
The Colts went over last season even without Richardson, but that was only the third Indianapolis over in nine seasons.
This is a tough team to play a median outcome on because either Richardson plays great and the ceiling is high, or he looks like a bad rookie and it could be a long year.
Futures Best Bet: Anthony Richardson 12+ Rushing TDs +550
This is a good way to invest in the Colts without really knowing whether or not the team or even Anthony Richardson will be good.
We have no way to know whether Richardson is ready as a passer, but as long as he stays healthy enough to play, he should be a huge threat as a runner. He ran for four TDs in effectively three games of time as a rookie, which means even 10 or 12 games could give this bet oxygen. Don't forget, Steichen was the coach that got Jalen Hurts doing the Tush Push, and he's averaged 12.7 rushing TDs a season the last three years.
17. Carolina Panthers
Offense: 25 | Defense: 25 | Coaching: 27
10 Words
Obvious paths to improvement + terrible NFC South = Panthers Island!
Season Outlook
The Panthers will look very different in 2024, and that's probably for the best.
The offense gets a makeover under new head coach Dave Canales, who's proven to be a QB whisperer in resurrecting the careers of Baker Mayfield and Geno Smith over the past few years. His new project is Bryce Young, last year's No. 1 overall draft pick, who is coming off an abjectly terrible rookie season.
Carolina did what it could to give the offense a chance. It paid big for Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis at guard, drafted the top RB in Jonathon Brooks, and added an excellent route runner at WR in Diontae Johnson, along with first-round pick Xavier Legette. This offense probably won't be good yet, but it should be much better.
The defense has its work cut out for it after the losses of Brian Burns, Frankie Luvu and Vonn Bell. Jadeveon Clowney comes home to Carolina after one of the best seasons of his career, and the return of Shaq Thompson helps too.
Biggest Questions
- How far can Bryce Young come in Year 2? QBs taken No. 1 tend to struggle before a sophomore leap: Jameis Winston jumped from six to nine wins, Jared Goff went from zero to 11, Kyler Murray went from three to eight, Joe Burrow went from two to 10 and Trevor Lawrence went from three to nine. Over the past decade, No. 1 pick QBs average 3.1 wins in their rookie season, but improve by 5.5 wins the next year. What can Young do?
- The Panthers aren't good, but have a lot of paths to turn bad into subpar or average. QB is the big one, but can the young offensive line or weapons improve? Can DC Ejiro Evero work his magic on the defense?
Schedule Analysis
The first 10 games come against the Saints, Chargers, Raiders, Bengals, Bears, Falcons, Commanders, Broncos, Saints and Giants.
Read that list again. There's not a single team on the list Carolina can't at least hang with if the team is more subpar than terrible this season, and you never know what happens if a young team starts to find itself early and gains some confidence.
Win Total: Over 5.5 (Multi-Unit Bet)
This team has serious Trevor Lawrence Year 2 post-Urban Meyer in Jacksonville vibes, after ridding itself of the stank of the Frank Reich coaching disaster last season. Bryce Young cannot possibly be as bad as he was last season, and there's a lot of low-hanging fruit on this team that can improve quickly.
Carolina doesn't really have any top-20 units, but it has multiple paths to get there and no longer looks terrible at any one weak spot. That improvement alone makes this my top over on the board.
Futures Best Bet: Panthers to Win NFC South +1300 (ESPN Bet)
But I'm not just going over — I'm taking the Panthers to go all the way from worst to first and win the division.
We've seen exactly that happen in 19 of the past 21 seasons, and the Panthers fit the profile in a bad, winnable division. Canales has elevated passing games well and should find what works with Young, and if Carolina goes over and gets to seven or eight wins, that alone probably puts them in the mix in the NFC South.
This is a great way to fade three very blah NFC South teams and bet on one with any number of routes to quick improvement. Panthers Island, baby! #KeepPounding
16. Atlanta Falcons
Offense: 20 | Defense: 24 | Coaching: 20
10 Words
Are mediocrity and soft schedule enough in a terrible division?
Season Outlook
The Falcons were a popular sleeper before the team tanked under Arthur Smith and Desmond Ridder, but the core has been replaced. Atlanta splashed big on Kirk Cousins before drafting Michael Penix Jr., and the Falcons also brought in Raheem Morris at coach, along with OC Zac Robinson.
Smith's offense was bad, but it did elevate this offensive line, and Atlanta has a trio of elite weapons in Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts. Cousins is coming off a torn Achilles to his plant foot and playing in a new environment, but the pieces are there for Robinson's offense to hum.
The defense has more questions. It's finished bottom three in DVOA in three of the past six seasons and was just 24th last year, but they return Grady Jackson and added Matt Judon and Justin Simmons in splashy moves.
The defense shouldn't be terrible, and the offense looks to be something around average. Add in the easiest strength of schedule by many measures and that level of average might just be enough in the terrible NFC South.
Biggest Questions
- What will this offense look like under Robinson, who comes over from the Sean McVay tree? Will that mean heavy 11 personnel and a huge workload for Bijan Robinson? Could Drake London break out as a target monster for Kirk Cousins a la Justin Jefferson?
- Are we positive mediocrity and a soft schedule are enough for Atlanta? That was the case for New Orleans in this spot one season ago and the Saints never really pulled everything together.
Schedule Analysis
The Falcons start with tough games against the Steelers, Eagles and Chiefs before facing all three division opponents.
If Atlanta can hang through the early stretch while settling in a new QB and coaching staff, the Falcons could coast to a big win total with the easiest second-half DVOA schedule in the league by a wide margin.
Win Total: Under 9.5 (Lean)
The Falcons have gone under in five of the past six seasons, and it's tough to simply crown this team when we haven't seen if Cousins is ready, how this coaching staff will look or if the pieces will finally come together.
Futures Best Bet: Falcons-Texans Fade the Hype Miss Playoffs Parlay +628 (FanDuel)
Both South divisions are bad, and both feature one clear favorite everyone is mostly penciling into the playoffs.
I'm fading the Texans too, as you'll see in their section. With both teams' odds juiced off the summer media hype train, we get a tasty +628 to parlay both teams to miss the playoffs. If one of the two misses easily and the other is still up for grabs late, we'll have plenty of options.
If you prefer just the Falcons part of the bet, you can bet Atlanta to miss the playoffs at +170 (DraftKings).
15. Houston Texans
Offense: 17 | Defense: 14 | Coaching: 15
10 Words
The entire market's in on Houston — one year too late.
Season Outlook
The Texans are the darlings of the NFL.
Houston won seven of its final 10 games in the regular season, swept both Rookie of the Year Awards with C.J. Stroud and Will Anderson and came a tiebreaker away from DeMeco Ryans winning Coach of the Year, too. Then the Texans dropped 45 on an elite Browns defense and even gave the Ravens all they could handle for one half in the playoffs.
Now, the team has gone all-in on its young franchise QB, spending big to add Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon on offense, along with Danielle Hunter, Azeez Al-Shaair and Denico Autry in defense. Suddenly, the once hapless Texans are third or fourth favorite in the AFC and Stroud is effectively second favorite in MVP odds.
The offense made the huge leap last season under OC Bobby Slowik, from bottom three in DVOA two seasons in a row to 14th overall and top 10 passing. The rushing attack was terrible, but Stroud's deep passing shredded opponents and led the league in yards per game, and he has a great trio of receivers.
The defense took a big step forward against the run under Ryans but has still finished bottom 11 against the pass in five consecutive seasons. If Ryans' defense can take the next step to match the offense, the Texans could be the whole package and match Super Bowl expectations.
Biggest Questions
- Stroud was outstanding throwing the deep ball, but he struggled under pressure and making short throws. We've seen this before from guys like Mahomes and Burrow, so how will Stroud respond when defenses take away the deep ball and force this offense to run the football and beat them in the short game?
- Is the defense really ready to take another step? Ryans' history speaks for itself, but the secondary was already underperforming and now lost quality corners Steven Nelson and Tavierre Thomas.
- Can the Texans possibly live up to all the hype and expectations being heaped upon this young squad?
Schedule Analysis
For my money, the Texans might have the toughest schedule in the league. Every division game looks tough in the AFC South, and there's four more tough games against the NFC North plus the Bills, Dolphins and Jets from the AFC East.
Houston's three variable games come against the Chiefs, Ravens and Cowboys, an absolutely brutal draw and a significant leg up for the Texans' three division rivals. Houston faces the No. 1 DVOA schedule the back half of the season, with a late Week 13 bye, then the Dolphins, Chiefs, and Ravens in consecutive weeks.
Win Total: Under 9.5 (Lean)
Since 2006, only three of 34 teams that improved their record by six or more games went on to improve again the next season, while the others dropped by an average of 2.8 wins, per VSIN. And of 22 teams since 2000 with double-digit wins but at least four double-digit losses like the Texans, over half of them fell the following season by at least three wins, with an average drop of 4.9.
The Texans only won 10 games last season, so even a one win drop goes under the number. This under is juiced to +128 at FanDuel, so books are paying us extra to fade a Texans squad everyone else is buying.
Futures Best Bet: Texans to Miss Playoffs +168 (FanDuel)
Growth isn't linear, and I can't shake the feeling that the entire media and market is over-indexing on the Texans one year late to make up for missing out on Texans Island last season.
This is still a subpar offensive line and a terrible run game, a bad secondary and unreliable defense, and a sophomore QB with more flaws in his game than it seems and an EPA per play outside the top. Houston will have to deal with the pressure of being a target this season early, and that daunting closing schedule awaits.
Could we see another late collapse by an AFC South division favorite? I'm fading all the Texans hype, but it may be wise to wait and invest about 4-6 weeks into the season after a soft schedule to start has driven Texans mania to a fever pitch.
14. Chicago Bears
Offense: 13 | Defense: 16 | Coaching: 23
10 Words
It's Caleb Williams SZN in Chicago. How ready is he?
Season Outlook
It's a new day in Chicago with Caleb Williams and Rome Odunze in town, and Bears fans are loving the "Hard Knocks" coverage and dreaming big about the future. But will the future arrive early in 2024?
Chicago's defense made huge strides over the back half of last season after trading for Montez Sweat and getting a breakout campaign from CB Jaylon Johnson. That leap likely saved Matt Eberflus' job, and the task this season is to continue the upward trajectory.
There's little doubt the offense will be better, and not just because of Williams. The most important immediate addition likely came off the field in OC Shane Waldron, who helped Geno Smith and the Seahawks post a top 10 DVOA passing offense in each of the past two seasons.
The Bears suddenly have top-five weapons in the league after adding Odunze, Keenan Allen and D'Andre Swift. The offensive line is still shaky in pass protection, and Williams is a wild card. If things click quickly, there's serious playoff upside in the NFC.
Biggest Questions
- How real was the defensive leap, and how much of it was outlier turnover luck juicing the numbers?
- Williams can be a highlight reel, scrambling and creating sandlot plays out of nothing, but his propensity to hold the ball too long also leads to sacks and turnover-worthy plays. Will he try to do too much as a rookie with poor protection, or will the big plays make up the difference?
Schedule Analysis
Per Aaron Schatz, the Bears face the No. 30 DVOA strength of schedule over the first half of the season, but that leaps to No. 4 over the back half. That's tough for a young team that would be expected to get better as the year goes on. If Chicago's going to make a playoff push, it probably has to happen early.
Win Total: Under 9.5 (Lean)
The Bears have only gone over their posted win total once in the past 11 seasons.
Recent No. 1 pick QBs Jameis Winston, Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence and Bryce Young won just 22 games combined as rookies, an average of 3.1 before a 5.5-win leap their sophomore seasons. Williams joins a better roster than most, but this may be a year too early.
Futures Best Bet: NFC North Exact Order — Packers-Lions-Bears-Vikings +750 (Caesars)
Chicago should be improved and flirt with .500 ball, but this is a tough division. Minnesota should finish at the bottom with Sam Darnold at QB, but it's a tall order asking the Bears to catch both the Packers and Lions.
They look likely to finish in third, and you can bet just that at +200, but I've got Green Bay and Detroit about even at the top and this exact outcome division order finish pays out much better if the Packers top Detroit.
13. Cincinnati Bengals
Offense: 14 | Defense: 20 | Coaching: 19
10 Words
Are the Bengals still living off post Super Bowl hype?
Season Outlook
It was a disappointing season for the Bengals, but Cincinnati really overachieved getting to 9-8. Joe Burrow missed seven games and played hurt for many of the others, and the defense cratered but the team still finished over .500.
The offense moves forward without much depth behind Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, but those two plus Burrow is still a heck of a floor. The line remains in flux and the run game moves on from Joe Mixon, but Burrow was the No. 1 graded PFF quarterback in the league two years in a row before last season.
The Bengals defense started a pair of young safeties last season with disastrous results, so it went out and got Geno Stone and Vonn Bell to stabilize a very important position for DC Lou Anarumo's style. Even so, the defense has rated average at best the last few seasons, and the offense only has one top 10 DVOA finish with Burrow.
For all the hype, the Bengals haven't lived up to expectations since they caught lightning in a bottle for that magical run to the Super Bowl. Was that just a flash in the pan?
Biggest Questions
- There are whispers entering the season that Burrow still isn't quite healthy, even after a full offseason. Burrow can't seem to shake an endless string of seemingly unrelated injuries. Is he healthy?
- When will Ja'Marr Chase suit up? He's still holding out without a contract on the eve of the season.
Schedule Analysis
The Bengals have gotten off to slow starts the last couple seasons — 1-3 last fall, 2-3 the season before.
Cincinnati will play the Chiefs and Ravens in its first six games but otherwise has a pretty soft schedule early. Win one of those two and take care of business against opponents they should beat and the Bengals will be in great shape.
Win Total: Under 10.5 (Pass)
The Bengals have gone under in six of the last eight seasons. This line looks just about right.
Futures Best Bet: Bengals to Miss Playoffs +210 (BetMGM)
The AFC is tough. I've got the Bengals, Browns, and Ravens all in the playoff mix from the AFC North with the Bills, Dolphins, and Jets pushing in the AFC East, with all six of those teams projected between 10 and 11 wins.
Let me help you with the math. We only get two division winners and up to three wildcard teams from those divisions, maybe less if one of the wildcard spots goes to the South or West. The Bengals should be in the hunt but look closer to 50/50 then two-to-one favorites, so play the odds and take the +210.
12. Buffalo Bills
Offense: 5 | Defense: 11 | Coaching: 8
10 Words
It's just Allen and McDermott now — is that still enough?
Season Outlook
The Bills will look a lot different after the departures of Stefon Diggs, Tre'Davious White, Jordan Poyer, and Mitch Morse, all long-time contributors to this perennial contender. It looked for a hot minute last season like Sean McDermott might join that list too, but then the Bills closed the season strong and stole the division.
This roster is aging and headed in the wrong direction, but McDermott and Josh Allen are still doing their thing, and that alone might be enough.
McDermott performed miracles keeping this defense 12th in DVOA last season despite myriad injuries, and that was a sixth straight season in the top 12 on that end. Josh Allen had the offense top five in DVOA for the third time in four seasons, and he's practically an offense unto himself. The offense barely skipped a beat switching to OC Joe Brady midseason and seems to have embraced more of a power running attack.
Buffalo's weapons are lacking with Diggs gone, and the defense lacks pass rush. The roster is getting pretty thin. But Allen and McDermott have been an unstoppable combination all on their own.
Biggest Questions
- Which receivers will step up with Diggs gone? It could be rookie Keon Coleman or analytics darling Khalil Shakir. Mack Hollins is a great blocker, Marquez Valdes-Scantling is a deep threat, and Curtis Samuel is probably the most rounded WR. But could Buffalo's top receiver actually be TE Dalton Kincaid?
- Great pass defense has been a hallmark under McDermott, but the secondary is getting thin. Will Christian Benford and Taron Johnson continue to thrive? Is Damar Hamlin ready to step into a starting role?
Schedule Analysis
It's a tough schedule for Buffalo throughout, but especially at the top. The Bills face the Dolphins, Ravens, Texans, and Jets in their first six games.
If you're looking to buy Allen or Bills futures, you can probably wait for a cheaper price sometime in that stretch.
Win Total: Under 10.5 (Pass)
The Bills have gone over in six of the last seven seasons, but this is a high number for a super thin roster where one wrong injury — especially to Allen — could turn things upside down in a hurry. It's under or pass as difficult as this schedule is starting out.
Futures Best Bet: At Least 3 AFC East Teams to Make the Playoffs +600 (FanDuel)
As grim as that picture sounds, McDermott and Allen alone are enough to keep the Bills in the playoff mix. I've got them third in the division, but that's only because the Jets and Dolphins both look so good too. The Patriots almost definitely won't make the playoffs, but I've got Buffalo edging Cincinnati for the final spot in the AFC.
There's a pretty strong chance we get at least two AFC East teams into the field, so this is effectively +600 that the third one sneaks in too.
11. Detroit Lions
Offense: 3 | Defense: 13 | Coaching: 11
10 Words
Detroit is for real, but is this a championship defense?
Season Outlook
The most important move Detroit made this offseason was no move at all, incredibly keeping OC Ben Johnson around for at least one more year.
The Lions offense has finished top-five in DVOA each year with Johnson at the helm, and Detroit features the best offensive line in the league with a stud WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (an underrated run blocker) and a great 1-2 RB punch. Jared Goff is the main question, but he's played at an 11.2-win rate for his career, outside of his rookie season and his first year in Detroit without Johnson leading the offense.
Johnson seems to scheme up a wide-open touchdown every game, and the Lions offense will be up to the task, but their Super Bowl hopes depend on how far the defense can take them.
The Lions had finished bottom five defensively in DVOA for three straight seasons before jumping to 13th last season, and most of the improvement came against the run, buoyed further by the addition of D.J. Reader. The pass defense is still unreliable, but added corners Carlton Davis III and first-round rookie Terrion Arnold. Add in Aidan Hutchinson up front and the defense is starting to come together.
Biggest Questions
- DC Aaron Glenn was voted No. 1 among assistant coaches by his peers, but the results have been mixed at best. Is there enough talent to build a title defense?
- Expectations haven't been this high for Detroit in decades. How will the Lions fare as the hunted instead of the hunters? Can Goff step up in the season's biggest moments?
Schedule Analysis
The Lions play just one game outdoors before Week 16. Jared Goff's struggles outdoors are well documented at this point, but he's much better indoors. If Detroit navigates this gift from the schedule gods and survives Weeks 16 and 17 in Chicago and San Francisco, could the Lions play indoors at home for the playoffs too?
Win Total: Under 10.5 (Pass)
The Lions have only won 11 or more games twice since 1991, and it's tough dealing with championship expectations. Detroit has done the regular season thing, so its focus will be on a deep playoff run. It's tough to get to 11 wins, even for a good team like the Lions.
Futures Best Bet: Lions-Packers Dual Forecast +155
I'm not convinced Detroit quite has the ceiling of a few other contenders, but the Lions' floor is very high with their elite line play and reliably great offense. Even with an improved effort from the Bears, Detroit should finish safely in the top two in the NFC North and make the playoffs.
I have the division as nearly a coin flip between the Lions and Packers, so rather than pick a side, we can just play dual forecast to finish top two in either order.
10. Green Bay Packers
Offense: 7 | Defense: 22 | Coaching: 12
10 Words
The Packers did it again — Jordan Love looks MVP-caliber awesome.
Season Outlook
Did everyone enjoy that slight one-year Green Bay dip? It sure looks like the Packers have found yet another superstar quarterback in Jordan Love, who struggled the first half of last season, but put everything together over the back half to lead the Packers back to the playoffs and win a game there too.
From Week 11 forward, once Love settled in, the Packers finished 6-2 with Love on pace for 4,600 yards, 38 TDs and just two interceptions. He ranked No. 2 in the NFL in EPA and CPOE over that stretch and finished top five for the season, even after the slow start. And he was top five on my personal MVP ballot.
It's not just Love. Matt LaFleur has done a brilliant job developing Love and putting this offense in position to succeed, and Green Bay restocked its cupboard with veteran RB Josh Jacobs and a flurry of young players at RB, WR and TE to give this offense direction and a future. Love enters the year as QB5 in my quarterback rankings. With LaFleur at his side, he looks like a future MVP winner.
But Green Bay finished 31st in special teams DVOA last season and 27th in defense. The team brought in safeties Xavier McKinney and second-rounder Javon Bullard to shore up the back end, but the biggest change was firing DC Joe Barry, perhaps the worst coordinator in the league, and replacing him with Jeff Hafley.
Biggest Questions
- How much low-hanging fruit can Hafley redeem on this defense post-Barry? Guys like Jaire Alexander and Rashan Gary can be stars, but the defense has long added up to less than the sum of its parts. The Packers have enough talent to put forth a top-10 unit if Hafley gets the ingredients cooking.
- Which youngster will step forward in the receiver room? Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson are the speed threats, and Jayden Reed could lead the team in receptions, but Dontayvion Wicks looks like the X-factor — and don't forget about tight ends Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft.
Schedule Analysis
The Packers have a pretty winnable schedule to start, but the entire season hinges on a one-month stretch from Weeks 12 through 15 with consecutive games against the 49ers, Dolphins, Lions and Seahawks, all on national television.
That could be the end for a young team, or it could showcase just how far this team has come, and maybe even give them a spotlight for an awards push.
Win Total: Over 9.5 (Lean)
LaFleur and Love are reason enough to bet an over and that soft early schedule should set Green Bay up well and give bettors a chance to hedge out or play for a middle before that tough stretch late. If the Packers do go Over 9.5 wins, the division should be in play, so you may be better off betting that at +240, where I show good value.
Futures Best Bet: Packers Win Super Bowl and Jordan Love MVP +6000 (DraftKings)
I have Green Bay as one of six teams within half a game atop the NFC. If the Packers are a top-two seed, Jordan Love will be in the MVP conversation with a good chance to win it. And if he plays well enough to win MVP and secure a top seed, that also means the Packers are badly mispriced to win the Super Bowl — in part because Love likely enters the playoffs as the clear best QB in the NFC.
Remember, Love will have a showcase month late in the season against the 49ers, Dolphins, Lions and Seahawks, with a chance to win voters over and set the Packers up at the top of the NFC. That could make Love an attractive in-season MVP betting option. Besides, what fun is betting if you can't call your shot sometimes?
You can find this bet at DraftKings under Awards, MVP + SB Winner.
NOTE: I believe I've seen this bet implying regular season MVP or Super Bowl MVP, so read carefully before playing. The truth is that both are a similar angle. If Love plays like a regular season MVP, Packers Super Bowl odds are way off, and Love would be a big SBMVP favorite in a Green Bay win. If Love doesn't play at that level, the Packers are never making that run this season anyway.
9. Baltimore Ravens
Offense: 13 | Defense: 7 | Coaching: 2
10 Words
Baltimore will be worse than last year — but how much?
Season Outlook
The Ravens were the only 13-game winner in the NFL last season and Lamar Jackson won his second MVP, so things can really only go down from there. But there's reason to believe Baltimore could fall off on any number of fronts.
The offensive line is a giant question mark heading into the new season. A line that finished top five by PFF grade a year ago will replace three starters, leaving a complete unknown up front blocking for Jackson and Derrick Henry in Todd Monken's offense.
The defense loses a few key names too in Patrick Queen and Jadeveon Clowney, but the biggest names lost on that side of the ball came off the field. The Ravens defense will experience a massive brain drain as not just DC Mike Macdonald but also top assistants Anthony Weaver and Dennard Wilson all left for promotions elsewhere, leaving little-known Zach Orr stepping into the DC role.
Jackson may have won MVP, but the defense, special teams, and coaching carried the day for this team. The spine of the Ravens has been significantly altered since we last saw them.
Biggest Questions
- Lamar Jackson had his best season as a passer under Monken, but how will he perform in Year 2 of the offense with a significantly worse line? How long will it take the new line to gel, and will it even matter for Derrick Henry with his bruising style? Is Henry the final missing piece to this offense?
- Can Baltimore generate enough pass rush? That wasn't a strength on last year's roster either, but Clowney had a career year and Macdonald had a knack for pulling the right strings at the right time. The corners could get exposed if Orr's defense is unable to pressure the QB.
Schedule Analysis
We'll find out quickly if these Ravens are as good as last year's team — Baltimore will play the Chiefs, Cowboys, Bills, and Bengals in the first five weeks alone.
Win Total: Under 10.5 (Pass)
In the last 30 years, 37 teams won at least 13 games but failed to make the Super Bowl, and not one of the 37 improved the following season, per VSIN. All but one was worse the following season, by an average of 3.7 wins.
The Ravens are 3-1 to the under with John Harbaugh when their win total starts at 10 or higher entering the season. With that tough early start and all the changes to the core, an under is a great chance to get ahead of the curve early.
Futures Best Bet: Derrick Henry 15+ rushing TDs +550 (DraftKings)
Derrick Henry has 12, 16, 17, 10, 13, and 12 rushing touchdowns the last six seasons, an absolute machine of a workhorse back who hasn't shown any real signs of slowing down. Now he joins a Ravens team that led the NFL in rushing attempts and yards last season and finished fourth in rushing TDs with 26.
Henry is a battering ram, and Gus Edwards had 13 scores for the Ravens last season. Henry is +650 to lead the league in rushing TDs, so why not just play the number and not worry about the competition?
8. Cleveland Browns
Offense: 15 | Defense: 1 | Coaching: 7
10 Words
Defense looks elite. Can they play offense now too?
Season Outlook
The Browns had a historically great defense for much of last season under DC Jim Schwartz and bring almost everyone back on that side of the ball.
Myles Garrett is the defending Defensive Player of the Year from a ferocious front seven, and the linebackers and secondary had outstanding seasons. If anything, the defense actually got unlucky with red zone and turnover luck or it might have been even better.
Unfortunately, Cleveland's offense was almost as bad as the offense was good.
The team started an NFL record five quarterbacks en route to its playoff berth and still doesn't know what it's got in Deshaun Watson heading into the new season. The offensive line was a turn style of injuries, with all three top tackles missing most of the season, and star RB Nick Chubb shredded his knee.
The offense can really only get better. Chubb should be back at some point, and the line is still banged up but getting healthy. The Browns also added Jerry Jeudy and OC Ken Dorsey. Can the offense match the defense?
Biggest Questions
- What in the world do we do with Deshaun Watson? Watson hasn't played even remotely good football in over three years, returning after a long gap to a new team and struggling through throwing shoulder injuries. Watson is one of the biggest swing players in the league. If he's healthy and plays well in a Dorsey offense that should fit his strengths better, the Browns could be the best team in the AFC.
- If Watson is cooked, could Jameis Winston be a surprise answer? Winston has a YOLO arm and that worked well late last season for this offense with Joe Flacco. If the defense is this great, could Winston slinging it around footloose and fancy free be good enough?
Schedule Analysis
The Browns open against the Cowboys but then get four very winnable games against the Jaguars, Giants, Raiders, and Commanders. If Cleveland wins the opener and its defense is playing well, that could setup a 5-0 start and get Watson and this offense some badly needed confidence.
If the Browns stumble early though, look out. Cleveland's final four games come against the Chiefs, Bengals, Dolphins, and Ravens.
Win Total: Over 8.5 (Bet)
Last year was only the fourth over in Cleveland's last 16 seasons, but I'm buying in on this team.
The Browns are my projected No. 1 defense, and though I have no idea which QB will be the answer, I like that Cleveland has two guys that make sense to me. Even competent QB play should keep this team above .500.
Futures Best Bet: Browns to Win AFC North +550 (DraftKings)
With this much volatility on offense, it makes more sense to play long-tail positives than median outcomes if you believe. I've got the Browns in virtually a dead heat with the Ravens and Bengals at the top of the AFC North, but both of those teams are priced around +150.
That leaves clear value on the Browns at +550, especially with the great schedule opportunity these first five games. There's a ton of upside for this team and you'll want a piece of the action if the offense ends up hitting.
7. Seattle Seahawks
Offense: 11 | Defense: 5 | Coaching: 13
10 Words
The exact right new coaching staff for this Seattle roster.
Season Outlook
Pete Carroll has finally retired after 14 seasons in Seattle. Normally, that would mean a step back replacing a legend, but I could not possibly be more excited for this new coaching staff.
Mike Macdonald projects as a great CEO of this team, but also brings an aggressive edge that this defense has lacked. The front seven has loaded up, with Tyrel Dodson and Jerome Baker as underrated linebackers stepping into big roles behind Leonard Williams and first-round pick Byron Murphy on the line. Additionally, sophomore corner Devon Witherspoon could be unleashed as a weapon under Macdonald a la Kyle Hamilton.
Macdonald helped the Ravens defense leap from 28th to 7th in DVOA in his first season there, then 1st last fall, and he's been especially good against these unstoppable Shanahan- and McVay-tree offenses — you know, the exact ones he'll face four times a year in this division.
But it's not just on defense. New OC Ryan Grubb comes over from the University of Washington, where he unleashed a devastating passing attack with Michael Penix Jr. throwing a dizzying number of deep balls to a talented trio of receivers.
That's the perfect fit for this offense, since Geno Smith's top strength is his PFF 99.9-graded deep ball. He'll be dropping that in a bucket all season to DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Tyler Lockett.
I project Seattle as a top-five defense and a borderline top-10 offense this fall. I have the Seahawks under half a win from the top of the NFC. If everything clicks with this coaching staff, we could see fireworks.
Biggest Questions
- How long will it take the new coaching staff to settle in? Grubb comes over from the college ranks and Macdonald took half a season making the same transition from college in his first Baltimore season.
- Geno Smith has had one great half season and one poor one in each of the past two years, and he's struggled under pressure and on money downs. Can he be consistent enough to lead a top offense?
Schedule Analysis
The new staff eases in with games against the two worst teams in the AFC, the Broncos and Patriots. The Dolphins and Bills games come at home. The toughest division game, at San Francisco, comes after the bye. The next toughest road game, at the Jets, is sandwiched between two Cardinals games. Just lots of little things to like.
Win Total: Over 7.5 (Multi-Unit Bet)
This is my favorite over on the board, and I project Seattle a full three wins above this number, so you can look to play an alternate over if you prefer. The Seahawks have only gone under in four of the past 14 seasons.
But I'm not stopping with a simple over. I want long-tail, high-end outcomes for this squad.
Futures Best Bet: Mike Macdonald to Win Coach of the Year +1400
If I'm right about the coaching staff playing such a key role, this is a no brainer. Seattle is a perfect fit as a team with a 7.5 win total expected to take a step back after losing a legendary coach, so a step forward instead is the perfect narrative for a Macdonald Coach of the Year win.
I have the Seahawks almost even with the 49ers, which obviously makes the +800 division odds (BetRivers) pretty juicy. Seattle is +215 to make the playoffs if you prefer.
But if Seattle is really good enough to be in the mix at the top of the NFC, you should be aggressive. The Seahawks are +3500 to take the No. 1 seed (ESPN Bet) and +3500 to win the conference (Caesars), though the regular season angle feels a bit safer. If the Seahawks do finish as a top-two seed, could Geno Smith be a shock MVP candidate? He's +15000 at BetMGM.
6. Miami Dolphins
Offense: 1 | Defense: 11 | Coaching: 10
10 Words
Speed and offense galore- can they ever finish the job?
Season Outlook
The Dolphins have offense for days.
Mike McDaniel may be an actual genius, and his offensive innovations have taken the NFL by storm. It was sheer speed and rapidfire time to throw in Year 1, then an added half-motion last fall to get his speedsters moving before the snap. McDaniel's offense finished top three in DVOA both rushing and passing even after a miserable final month, and Miami's rushing attack that had been miserable for years is now elite.
The Dolphins can drop 70 on a poor unsuspecting foe, but this offense continues to have a penchant for going missing late in the season, in bad weather and against top opponents. McDaniel's offense is new and innovative in September, but teams have shown an ability to catch up, at least a little by November and December.
Miami's defense was never really healthy last season and now faces a max exodus with Christian Wilkins, Xavien Howard, Jerome Baker and DeShone Elliott gone along with legendary DC Vic Fangio.
Miami's secondary should be better with the additions of Jordan Poyer and Kendall Fuller and a full healthy season from Jalen Ramsey, but the defense lost a lot of talent and is missing both its top pass rushers indefinitely as Jaelyn Phillips and Bradley Chubb recover from injuries.
There's still a ton of talent on this defense, and obviously plenty on offense. Can new DC Anthony Weaver get the defense on track enough to help the offense when it goes cold for long stretches?
Biggest Questions
- Will the offensive line hold up? Miami lost Connor Williams and Robert Hunt after excellent seasons, and LT Terron Armstead is elite but only ever plays about 12 games. But Tua Tagovailoa gets the ball out so quickly, it hardly seems to matter in this offense.
- Can Tagovailoa play out of rhythm, and can he and this offense hit their top level in bad weather, late in the season, and against top defenses? That's the one thing that continues to hold this team back.
Schedule Analysis
Miami's offense tends to be at its best early in the season before opponents adjust to Mike McDaniel's new twists, then slow down late as the Dolphins crash into the holidays, and this year's schedule sets up perfectly for deja vu all over again.
The Dolphins have a soft schedule early and coast into Thanksgiving against the Rams, Raiders, and Patriots, but they close the season with six straight against the Packers, Jets, Texans, 49ers, Browns and Jets. If Miami hasn't figured out how to make this offense work in December, the Dolphins season will go south late yet again.
Win Total: Over 9.5 (Bet)
The Dolphins have not gone under their win total in six seasons (5-0-1), and I love this over because the schedule could set us up for a juicy middle.
Miami has every chance to start out 9-2 with a steamrolling offense and goose this line up a couple wins, but it would be very Dolphins to stumble to the finish line and hit a fat middle.
Futures Best Bet: Dolphins Most Points in NFL +1600 (bet365)
The Dolphins are my No. 1 offense entering the new season, and I'm not sure that requires much explanation. Miami averaged 37.2 PPG through six games last season and 32 PPG through 12, and even with the tough finish, the Dolphins finished second in the league in scoring, just 13 points behind Dallas with only 33 points in Miami's final two games.
The Dolphins had eight games with 30+ points, including three of at least 42 and the 70 burger they dropped on Denver. Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, De'Von Achane, and Raheem Mostert can score on any play. This is a ludicrous number and should at least give us hedge opportunities late, even with that tough closing schedule.
You should also look to invest in Dolphins' players futures, both as a bettor and a fantasy player.
The most fun bet you can make this season is Tyreek Hill to record 200+ receiving yards in any game at +275 (DraftKings). That bet cashed in the opener last season, and Hill has 12 games of at least 143 yards the last two seasons, so we probably have about six chances — once every three games — of being a bomb away from cashing. Imagine how much fun you'll have as RedZone flips back to a Dolphins game late and the ball goes long.
Hill is also one of my OPOY bets this season at +750, and so is De'Von Achane, a long shot at +6000. I'm playing the Achane escalator in hopes of a healthy breakout season:
De'Von Achane would be my #1 fantasy football target with league winner upside.
Can score any touch, wild efficiency metrics, #1 offense, just checks every box.
Bettors can ride the Achane escalator:
o750.5 rush yds, 1k +330 czr, 1250 +1100 fd, 1500 +4500 bet365, OPOY +6000— Brandon Anderson (@wheatonbrando) September 2, 2024
5. Dallas Cowboys
Offense: 9 | Defense: 6 | Coaching: 17
10 Words
Yes, we should fade Dallas — but not until the playoffs.
Season Outlook
The market has steamed against the Cowboys all summer, and it's not hard to see why after returning lame duck Mike McCarthy and losing stud LT Tyron Smith, RB Tony Pollard, CB Stephon Gilmore and others with very little in terms of reinforcement.
The market appears to have gone too far. The Cowboys are still good, at least in the regular season.
Dak Prescott has been top two in non-turnover EPA in each of the past two seasons, and Dallas has finished top 10 in Offensive DVOA in five of six healthy Prescott seasons. He and CeeDee Lamb alone make this a top-10 unit, even with a faltering offensive line and failing run game.
The defense is the swing after the change from DC Dan Quinn to Mike Zimmer. Zimmer has fielded elite defenses for years, but it's been a hot minute, and his style is radically different from Quinn's aggression, so it'll take time for this unit to adjust and things could go either direction.
Still, there's a lot of high-end talent on this roster and the regular season floor remains high with good health.
Biggest Questions
- What happens if the top-heavy roster sustains a major injury or two? The team already lost breakout CB DaRon Bland for the start of the season. What if Prescott or Lamb go down for a month? What about Micah Parsons?
- How much will the status of McCarthy hang over this season, especially with Bill Belichick on television every week just waiting to be hired? What about the lack of a Dak Prescott contract?
Schedule Analysis
If the Cowboys are distracted early, things could get interesting quickly. Dallas faces the fourth-most difficult strength of schedule by DVOA over the first half of the season before flipping to 31st in the back half.
Conversely, if the Cowboys hang early, that late schedule could set up for a run at MVP or the No. 1 seed.
Win Total: Over 9.5 (Lean)
Only six of the past 46 teams with at least five wins by 20 or more points improved their record the following season, with an average downgrade of 3.3 for the other 40, per VSIN. Dallas somehow had nine such wins last season. There's also been only one team since 1998 with nine double-digit wins that improved the following season, with the average team dropping 3.9 wins.
The Cowboys don't have to improve upon 12-5 to hit this over, but if they drop by three or four wins, it could be in peril, even with the high floor.
Futures Best Bet: Micah Parsons to Win Defensive Player of the Year +600 (BetMGM)
Micah Parsons is the DPOY betting favorite, but he's the right one. He's finished top three in DPOY voting in all three of his seasons in the NFL. He's had at least 13 sacks in every season and has led the DPOY race late in the season in each of the past two years. He can wreck a game in a heartbeat and rack up multiple sacks in a game.
Parsons is probably the single most disruptive player in the NFL, and unlike some of the other narrative-driven awards, defensive awards simply tend to reward greatness.
Parsons is an absolute bullseye for my DPOY criteria and my outright pick for the award, but be sure to read my DPOY article to see how I'm betting Parsons and three other favorites effectively against the field.
4. Philadelphia Eagles
Offense: 10 | Defense: 15 | Coaching: 4
10 Words
How much of the Super Bowl identity's still in there?
Season Outlook
The Eagles started last fall 10-1 before losing five of their final six to end the season in ignominious fashion and phase in a tumultuous offseason that saw the retirement of longtime studs Jason Kelce and Fletcher Cox and the hiring of two new coodinators, OC Kellen Moore and DC Vic Fangio.
The offense is built around the offensive line, but is the line still elite without Kelce? The run game gets a boost with Saquon Barkley, but so much of the scheme was built around Kelce's unique talents — including the devastatingly unstoppable Tush Push. Jalen Hurts will be asked to play a very different style under Moore, and that could mean a serious adjustment period.
The Eagles offense has ranked top half of the league in Offensive DVOA in five of the past six seasons, but only finished inside the top nine once during that stretch. The offense may be more good than great.
The defense would settle for good at this point. A once mighty defensive line has deteriorated, with Philadelphia's pressure rate dropping from No. 1 to No. 28, and the secondary got old. Rookies Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean will help eventually, but Fangio's system can be a difficult ask.
There's still a ton of high-end talent on this roster, but the Eagles have real questions to answer.
Biggest Questions
- Are we sure Jalen Hurts is a top franchise QB? Much of his value has come in the run game, and if he runs less by design to stay healthy, can he show enough value as a passer? If an offense featuring Barkley, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and a great offensive line fails, it has to fall on the quarterback.
- The Eagles have had six coordinators in three seasons. Can this team handle yet another huge transition on both sides of the ball? Are we sure Kellen Moore and Vic Fangio are still good?
Schedule Analysis
Be careful betting the Eagles at the start of the season with so much turnover in the trenches and at both coordinator positions.
But if Philadelphia can survive the transition and round into form late, the Eagles end the season with three division games, and that could be enough to still win the NFC East.
Win Total: Over 10.5 (Pass)
Given all the changes, it feels like the Eagles will be a better team in December than they are in September. The question is whether Nick Sirianni can get them there, but I'm still not ready to fade the spine of this coaching staff and team culture.
The NFC East hasn't had a repeat division winner since the 2003 season, and the Eagles are the only real replacement if Dallas drops out. But Philadelphia is 6-0 to the under with a win total of 10 or higher since 2010.
Futures Best Bet: Eagles-Cowboys Dual Forecast -155 (ESPN Bet)
There are a ton of questions about both Philadelphia and Dallas entering the season, but both rosters are loaded with talent and in a totally different universe than the Giants and Commanders. Why guess which team will finish at the top when we can just get the top two in either order?
I project a gap of almost six wins from these top two teams to the bottom two, leaving a massive margin for error on this bet. And before you complain about the juice, know that this is listed at -500 at books like BetMGM — and that's closer to where the number should be given the disparity between these teams.
3. San Francisco 49ers
Offense: 2 | Defense: 4 | Coaching: 3
10 Words
Just one question left: Can the 49ers win the big one?
Season Outlook
You already know the 49ers. San Francisco was the class of the NFL for all of last season and is basically running it back.
That means this team has the best offensive weapons in the league in Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk, now that he and Trent Williams have signed fat, deserved extensions. And whatever you think about Brock Purdy as an individual, there's no question that Purdy, in Kyle Shanahan's system, posts elite quarterback numbers and production.
The offense is top-heavy and didn't get any runup with McCaffrey injured and Aiyuk and Williams holding out, but we know Shanahan's guys will be elite once they get rolling. And though the defense has more questions, San Francisco has also finished top seven in DVOA on that side of the ball in five straight seasons.
The 49ers have a proven formula and the best roster in football. They just need to finish the job.
Biggest Questions
- How much will the Super Bowl loser hangover impact this team? Already the 49ers start the season with presumably lesser versions of McCaffrey, Aiyuk and Williams.
- What will new DC Nick Sorensen get out of this defense that Steve Wilks couldn't? Can Sorensen return the unit to what it was best at under DeMeco Ryans?
- The 49ers had the fourth-best adjusted injury games lost last season, per Aaron Schatz, after finishing 20th or worse an unbelievable 10 straight seasons previously. Can San Francisco's health luck continue?
Schedule Analysis
The 49ers face the worst rest differential in the league at -21, perhaps the fallout of a great team being placed into many high-profile television windows.
San Francisco has one stretch against the Seahawks, Chiefs and Cowboys, another against Seattle, Green Bay and Buffalo, and then two late games against the Dolphins and Lions. It's a tough schedule, and if the Niners end up missing a key player like Williams or McCaffrey for the wrong stretch, it could get tricky.
Win Total: Under 11.5 (Lean)
The Super Bowl loser is 14-6 to the under over the past two decades, and only eight Super Bowl losers ever have made it back the following season, just the 2018 Patriots since 1993.
Sometimes NFL means Not For Long. It's really hard to stay elite year after year. Kyle Shanahan has coached San Francisco for seven seasons and has made four conference championship games and won six or fewer games the other three seasons.
Futures Best Bet: Seahawks-49ers to Finish 1st-2nd in NFC West +1200 (BetRivers)
History tells us to expect a bit of a step back from the 49ers this season. Maybe it's the holdouts or perhaps a return of the injuries that have often plagued this team. The defense could drop off or Purdy could finally start paying for some of his mistakes.
San Francisco is too loaded to fade too hard, but I'm really in on Seattle and only have the Seahawks slightly behind the 49ers for the top of the division, with nary half a game separating the two before a gap to the rest of the division. The 49ers just need to get to the postseason healthy, even if it means sacrificing the division.
2. New York Jets
Offense: 6 | Defense: 3 | Coaching: 25
10 Words
Rodgers and the Jets can win it all if healthy.
Season Outlook
I'm all-in on the 2024 New York Jets.
Somehow this team continues to be overlooked and under discussed, despite Aaron Rodgers and despite the New York media maelstrom. Perhaps it's because this team hasn't been to the playoffs since 2010 or maybe it's the Achilles injury Rodgers is returning from, but few seem to be talking about the Jets as what they are.
This healthy Jets roster is the best roster in football.
I rank the Jets just ahead of the Chiefs and 49ers, and I don't even have to convince you on two of the three units. The special teams ranked in the top five last season under Brant Boyer, and Robert Saleh's defense continues to be elite with Quinnen Williams, Sauce Gardner and the best secondary in the league.
The fact that the Jets finished in the top five in DVOA defensively the last two seasons despite the heinous offense speaks volumes to just how good this defense has been — and this year they'll finally get some help.
New York had a bottom seven offensive line last fall but could have a top seven unit with the addition of stud LT Tyron Smith and the return of Alijah Vera-Tucker, plus two other new starters. That's a huge swing for this team, but not as big a swing as going from the worst QB room in the league to Rodgers.
Rodgers has never finished below 11th in Offensive DVOA in a healthy season, and he's won double-digit games 10 times. He was reportedly ready to play already in December, and the Achilles injury was on his non-plant foot, so we have every reason to believe he'll be ready to go.
If Rodgers and the offensive line are healthy along with Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson, the Jets have a chance to finish with a top-five unit in all three phases of the game.
Biggest Questions
- Will the Jets actually stay healthy? I'm not too worried about Rodgers, but Smith and Vera-Tucker on the line are big question marks, and so is Mike Williams. This is a team to bet long-tail outcomes, not median.
- Will Saleh and OC Nathaniel Hackett hold this team back? Saleh is far too conservative with his in-game decisions, and Hackett might be the worst coordinator in the league — if Rodgers even lets him call the plays.
- What will Rodgers look like? He has never completed a regular season pass with the Jets, and he was not great his final season in Green Bay, though he played most of the season with a broken throwing thumb and without Davante Adams or any reliable targets. Is there still a top-five QB in there?
Schedule Analysis
If the Jets are good, we'll hear about them right away. New York heads to San Francisco to kick off the season on Monday night, a place Rodgers has always loved to play, and they catch the 49ers limping in after McCaffrey, Aiyuk and Trent Williams missed the entire buildup to the season.
Win that one and with the Titans, Patriots, Broncos and Vikings up next, the Jets could be 5-0 before you know it. New York also gets both Dolphins games in the final five weeks of the season, an added bonus the way Miami has trailed off in December.
Win Total: Over 9.5 (Bet)
Even as bettors steam the Jets upward, the market is still too low on this team — but this is not a spot to bet median outcomes.
If New York stays healthy enough, you shouldn't be betting the Jets to just get to 10 wins. You should be dreaming much, much bigger.
Futures Best Bet: Aaron Rodgers to Win MVP +2500 (FanDuel)
Rodgers MVP is my single favorite awards bet heading into the new season.
The narrative practically writes itself — a 40-year-old Rodgers heroically returning from a torn Achilles to lead the Jets back to the playoffs for the first time since 2010? Come on.
MVP is a team award, and it goes to the QB on a team that wins 13 or 14 games and pushes for the No. 1 seed. Rodgers has good weapons, a great line, and an elite defense and special teams that should help him win games. If the Jets stay healthy, Rodgers will absolutely be in the MVP conversation because New York will win games.
This number prices Rodgers similarly to Tua Tagovailoa and Jared Goff and short of Brock Purdy, which is honestly insulting. R-E-L-A-X and get your bet down on Rodgers +2500 before this number is halved or further after a hot start the next few weeks. I wouldn't price this longer than +600.
If you want to take it a step further, you can bet on a Jets Super Bowl and Rodgers Super Bowl MVP at +10000 (DraftKings). I already grabbed a New York title ticket at +3000 back in March — the Jets are +2000 or shorter at every book now — but you might consider betting the Jets to start 5-0 (+550, BetMGM) or be the last unbeaten team (+1700, FanDuel), with both prices discounted because of the opening game in San Francisco.
If the Jets stay healthy, there's every reason to believe they'll be in this all the way.
1. Kansas City Chiefs
Offense: 4 | Defense: 12 | Coaching: 1
10 Words
The champs are back and going for an unprecedented three-peat.
Season Outlook
What's left to say about the Chiefs that you don't already know?
Kansas City has the best quarterback in the world and the best coaching staff in the league. The offensive line is still outstanding, especially the interior, and Patrick Mahomes gets the ball out so quickly that the tackles aren't really a problem. Even the defense is great now too.
The Chiefs are a dynasty, one where we end up nitpicking things like "did Mahomes have the worst year of his career at only 11-6 and a Super Bowl ring" or "is Travis Kelce distracted or declining or is he just saving his best for the playoffs?" It's fair to wonder at this point if Kansas City will show up bored for regular season games.
No team in NFL history has won three consecutive Super Bowls. This team has its eyes on one thing and one thing only.
Biggest Questions
- Kansas City's offense quietly took quite a step back in the regular season, finishing just No. 8 after landing in the top three in every other year of Mahomes's career. Was that the since-addressed receiver room? Or did the Chiefs quietly miss OC Eric Bieniemy — and did they ever find an answer?
- How will the defense respond to the loss of standout corner L'Jarius Sneed? The pass defense was the strength of this team last year, even ahead of the offense.
Schedule Analysis
If you want to invest in Chiefs futures, you may want to wait at least a week or two. Kansas City faces the Ravens and pesky Bengals to start the season.
Kansas City is priced at the absolute top of the market right now. Lose either of those games and Chiefs odds can really only go down. Of course, win both and the Chiefs may already be coasting to a No. 1 seed in the AFC's worst division with a soft second-half schedule.
Win Total: Over 11.5 (Pass)
The Chiefs under Andy Reid are an absurd 11-2 to the over, with both misses by half a win. You can't exactly bet this under, even at a high number, but the over isn't worth playing either.
The wins will very likely be there, but if the Chiefs do win 12 games, you're better off buying Mahomes MVP stock or investing in Chiefs postseason futures.
Futures Best Bet: Chiefs 1-seed and Super Bowl +1600 (FanDuel)
Kansas City is probably the best team in the AFC, but they don't even have to be to waltz to the No. 1 seed. The Chiefs will be significant favorites in every division game and are worth considering at +550 to go unbeaten in the division, and the floor is so high with Mahomes that the wins will pile up.
I project the Chiefs almost a full win ahead of any team in the league. If they do get the No. 1 seed, this ticket is now two home games away from giving you a +1600 Super Bowl ticket on the Chiefs — and remember, Mahomes is 15-3 lifetime in the playoffs.
You can bet on the Chiefs to have the best record at +750 if you prefer — these are all worthy investments — but if they do, you're never going to regret sitting on +1600 instead, just three games away from a big payday.
