As we inch closer to the 2024 NFL season, Anytime Touchdown (ATD) Scorers continue to be my top priority. With proper research and a solid betting approach, most bettors can find great enjoyment and be profitable with TD scorer bets and NFL player props.
Part of the research comes in the offseason when we identify impact players and the ones to avoid. Training camp news and beat reporters are good to follow and can help you as you enter the 2024 campaign but, sometimes, the recency bias may skew the perception of how certain players performed last year. That’s why we’ll dive into touchdown trends and identify key data points we need to know.
As someone who has been profitable in the ATD market in four of the last five seasons, I’ve put together notes, stats, facts and observations for all 32 NFL teams to help bettors get up to speed. This will highlight players I’m monitoring to see how their odds correlate compared to last season, and if there are players we should be targeting early for the 2024 regular season or (if applicable) avoiding altogether.
Arizona Cardinals
Most profitable TD scorer in 2023: Josh Dobbs +12.2 units
Biggest hit of the season: Emari Demarcarto +1700 (Week 15 vs. SF)
RB James Connor saw an increase in red-zone carries from 23 in 2022 to 36 in 2023. Despite this, he only scored one more TD than the previous year (nine in 2023, eight in 2022).
In only eight games, QB Kyler Murray had 11 red-zone carries and three touchdowns. Six of those 11 carries were in the first three games he played, and he scored each time. He only had five red-zone carries in the remaining five games of the season and didn’t score again.
The passing game was mostly anemic for the Cardinals in 2023, but one pass-catcher did manage to have 10+ red-zone targets: TE Trey McBride. Tight ends have led the Cardinals in red-zone targets the last two seasons (Zach Ertz, 15 in 2022).
Atlanta Falcons
Most profitable TD scorer in 2023: Scotty Miller +12 units
Biggest hit of the season: Scotty Miller +1800 (Week 8 vs. TEN)
Falcons TE Kyle Pitts has been one of the biggest disappointments for the ATD market with six total touchdowns in 44 career games. However, he was first among all starting TEs in 2023 in ADOT and fourth in Air Yards. This could finally be Pitts' breakout season with Kirk Cousins at QB.
WR Drake London has only scored six total TDs in 33 career games but has ranked in the top 20 in red-zone targets in his first two seasons. All of London’s career TDs have been scored in the red zone and he had more red-zone targets (16) in 2023 than A.J. Brown (15 red-zone targets, four TDs), Sam LaPorta (15 red-zone targets, eight TDs) and Mike Evans (14 red-zone targets; five TDs)
The Falcons were one of the worst passing teams against zone coverage last season. No Falcons WR or TE caught a TD against zone last season.
Baltimore Ravens
Most profitable TD scorer in 2023:Nelson Agholor +27 units
Biggest hit of the season:Keaton Mitchell +2800 (Week 9 vs. SEA)
QB Lamar Jackson had 30 red-zone rushing attempts in 2023 and scored five touchdowns, which came in three of the 16 regular-season games he played. However, only five of those 30 carries were inside the 5-yard line and he finished -8.85U in ATD profits. With his ATD odds ranging from +105 to +180, it may be best to avoid Jackson in the latter parts of the season as he hasn’t scored an ATD in a December game since 2020.
With the Titans, RB Derrick Henry saw eight games in 2023 with plus-odds to score an ATD. In 2022, Henry only had two games with plus odds. Entering 2024, Henry may not see plus-odds until Week 8 vs the Cleveland Browns.
WR Nelson Agholor finished fifth on the Ravens with four receiving touchdowns in 2023, but he was the only Ravens WR to score against man coverage last season.
Buffalo Bills
Most profitable TD scorer in 2023: Deonte Harty +14 units
Biggest hit of the season: Deonte Harty +2200 (Week 18 vs. MIA)
Josh Allen finished with 15 rushing TDs in 2023, tied for first in the NFL, with eight coming inside the 5-yard line. As a result, RB James Cook, who led the team in total rushing attempts and yards, only managed to have four rushing attempts inside the 5-yard line in 2023.
TE Dalton Kincaid was fantastic in his first season with the Bills and scored two TDs in 2023 with nine red-zone targets. However, his counterpart, TE Dawson Knox, scored as many TDs in three fewer games and finished with eight red-zone targets. With the departure of WR Stefon Diggs, both should be counted on in scoring territory in 2024.
Khalil Shakir was third in total snaps played at WR in 2023 behind Diggs and Gabe Davis. Both are on new teams in 2024, and Shakir has been getting rave reviews in training camp. He’s expected to compete with rookie Keon Coleman and Curtis Samuel for WR targets.
Carolina Panthers
Most profitable TD scorer in 2023: Tommy Tremble +13 units
Biggest hit of the season: Ihmir Smith-Marsette +1400 (Week 10 vs Bears)
Despite only scoring four TDs in 2023 (the fewest since 2017), WR Adam Theilen still led the Panthers in nearly every receiving category (receptions, yards, red-zone targets, yards after the catch). His Week 1 matchup is vs the Saints, the only divisional opponent he scored against last season.
The Panthers only managed to score seven rushing TDs in 2023, the fewest in the NFL. However, RB Chuba Hubbard scored five of those TDs and finished with more rushing attempts inside the 5-yard line (eight) than other star RBs like Saquon Barkley (six), Brian Robinson (six) and Najee Harris (seven).
QB Bryce Young didn't score a TD in 2023 and finished with only six total red-zone carries. Those carries ranked 23rd among all starting QBs, and Young’s ATD odds ranged from +475 to +1000 last season. Avoid until proven otherwise!
Chicago Bears
Most profitable TD scorer in 2023: Tyson Bagent +2 units
Biggest hit of the season: Marcedes Lewis +1300 (Week 16 vs. ARI)
The biggest knock on RB D’Andre Swift with the Eagles in 2023 was that he only saw 10 carries inside the 5-yard line and was rarely used as a passing back (only four red-zone targets). If he can return to usage like in Detroit (23 red-zone carries in 2023, 14 red-zone targets, 14 games), he could be a great early-season target for ATDs.
D.J. Moore’s 3.86 yards per route run against man coverage last season ranked fourth among WRs who saw at least 100 targets in 2023. On the flip side, new Bears WR Keenan Allen thrived against zone, ranking eighth in yards per route run among all WRs who saw at least 100 targets in 2023.
TE Cole Kmet’s ATD potential could take a hit with TE Gerald Everett’s arrival. Everett has been playing nearly equal snaps as Kmet in the preseason and each has the same amount of total red-zone targets over the last two seasons (25 each).
Cincinnati Bengals
Most profitable TD scorer in 2023: Jake Browning +17 units
Biggest hit of the season: Drew Sample +1900 (Week 12 vs. PIT)
If QB Joe Burrow was to get hurt again or miss time, backup QB Jake Browning showed he would run at the goal line. Browning scored in three of his six starts (+1000 in Week 13 vs Jacksonville, +550 in Week 14 vs. Indianapolis, +650 vs. Kansas City in Week 17) and was the most profitable NFL QB overall last season.
Although he only finished with seven touchdowns in 2023, WR Ja’Marr Chase still ranked ninth in total red-zone targets and 11th in targets inside the 5-yard line. Burrow is the key as Chase caught six of his seven TDs with him under center and only had one game with double-digit targets without him.
WR Tee Higgins led the Bengals in aDOT vs both man and zone coverage last season. Of his career 24 touchdowns, only three were scored indoors. The Bengals only play one game indoors all season: Week 14 vs the Cowboys.
Cleveland Browns
Most profitable TD scorer in 2023: Harrison Bryant +23 units
Biggest hit of the season: Pierre Strong Jr. +2800 (Week 2 vs. PIT)
Entering the 2023 season, TE David Njoku mostly thrived against AFC North opponents (11 of 19 career TDs). By the end of 2023, Njoku scored all six touchdowns last year against non-divisional opponents with five coming in games without QB Deshaun Watson.
The Browns tend to rely on a two-RB system in the backfield. RB Jerome Ford may be a breakout candidate in 2024 with RB Nick Chubb still recovering from a knee injury but don’t dismiss the potential RB2. Early reports suggest the Browns RB2 is D’Onta Foreman, who has scored 10 TDs in his last 26 games. Last year’s RB2, Kareem Hunt, finished with 32 red-zone carries in 2023 and scored nine TDs.
In 2022 with the Broncos, WR Jerry Jeudy ranked first among all starting WRs who saw at least 100 targets with a 4.14 yards per route run against man coverage. In 2023, Jeudy plummeted to 0.87, which ranked 177th among all NFL WRs. We’ll find out early if 2023 was a blip as the Browns face the Cowboys in Week 1, who ranked fourth in man coverage last year.
Dallas Cowboys
Most profitable TD scorer in 2023: Kavontae Turpin +28 units
Biggest hit of the season: Kavontae Turpin (+1300 in Week 1 vs NYG, +1300 in Week 5 vs SF)
Kavontae Turpin was a huge surprise for ATD bettors in 2023. While he only managed 18 targets in 16 games, Turpin scored three receiving TDs and finished second in ATD profits at +28 units. Look for his role to increase in 2023 with the departure of WR Michael Gallup.
WR CeeDee Lamb and TE Jake Ferguson were red-zone monsters in 2023. Both ranked in the top five in the NFL in targets inside both the 20 and 10-yard lines.
While Lamb and Ferguson are the offensive stars on the team, WR2 Brandin Cooks quietly scored eight TDs in 2023 and finished at +9.35 units in ATD profits. He led the team in aDOT against both man and zone coverage but did most of his damage against man with five touchdowns last year. The latter stat ranked third in the NFL behind Lamb and Raiders WR Davante Adams. The Cowboys' Week 1 opponent is the Cleveland Browns, who led the NFL in man coverage rate in 2023.
Denver Broncos
Most profitable TD scorer in 2023:Courtland Sutton +10.6 units
Biggest hit of the season:Jaleel McLaughlin +1500, Week 2 vs WAS
WR Courtland Sutton was tied for first in the NFL in 2023 with eight red-zone TD receptions. He led all Broncos receivers in overall targets, TDs and aDOT and ATD profits (+10.6 units).
Despite finishing with more red-zone carries in 2023 than RB Derrick Henry (36), Josh Jacobs (35), James Connor (31) and Austin Ekeler (30), RB Javonte Williams (37) only managed to score three rushing TDs inside the 20-yard line. He’s expected to be RB1 for the Broncos in 2024 and his median ATD odds in 2023 were +170.
The Broncos were the worst team defending the TE position in 2023. The defense allowed a league-high 10 receiving TDs and 1,091 receiving yards.
Detroit Lions
Most profitable TD scorer in 2023:David Montgomery +6.6 units
Biggest hit of the season: Brock Wright +1100, Week 10 vs LAC
WR Amon-Ra St. Brown crushed zone coverage in 2023, ranking third in the NFL in TDs scored against the coverage (six) and leading all receivers in targets (112) and catches (84) against it. The Lions Week 1 opponent is the Los Angeles Rams, a team that played zone at the sixth-highest rate in the NFL in 2023.
The Lions lean on their RB1 heavily in the red zone. RB David Montgomery ranked in the top five in red-zone carries inside the 20-yard line, carries inside the 5-yard line and red-zone TDs in 2023. This was after RB Jamaal Williams led the NFL in rushing TDs and red-zone carries in 2022. As long as Montgomery is on the roster, RB2 Jahmyr Gibbs’ TD potential will be capped. Gibbs scored in both games that Montgomery missed last season.
Second-year TE Sam LaPorta may have finished with the most-receiving TDs from the position in 2023 (10), but his ATD profits waned by the end of the season. His average ATD odds from Weeks 1-8 were +210, and he scored in three of those games. From Week 8 until the end of the season, his average odds were +155 and he scored in four of nine games. As a result, his profits for ATDs were +1.8 units in 2023.
Green Bay Packers
Most profitable TD scorer in 2023:Jayden Reed +15.6 units
Biggest hit of the season: Ben Sims +1200, Week 13 vs KC
WR Romeo Doubs was a red-zone machine last season, leading the NFL with 6 TDs inside the 5-yard line. He finished 2023 with 8 total TDs and was second on the Packers at +9.3U in overall ATD profits.
RBs Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon finished with the same amount of red-zone rushing attempts (34) in 2023. Dillon has since been put on injured reserve for the 2024 season while Jones departed for Minnesota. Even if Dillon was healthy, he wasn’t a factor at all inside the 5-yard line (seven attempts, two TDs) last season, and RB Josh Jacobs is expected to be the bell cow in this offense.
WR/RB Jayden Reed may have been a force for ATDs in 2023 (10 TDs in 16 games), but the Packers tended to open their scoring with Reed. As a rookie last season, Reed scored the first TD in five of 16 games last year and finished at +62 units in first TD profits, which was tied for third-most in the NFL.
Houston Texans
Most profitable TD scorer in 2023: Andrew Beck +45 units
Biggest hit of the season: Brevin Jordan +2800, Week 3 vs JAX
WR1 Nico Collins was a certified man (coverage) beater in 2023. He led the Texans with three touchdowns against man coverage last season and was first in the NFL in yards per route run (4.14) against man.
While Collins excelled against man and zone coverage, WR2 Tank Dell diced up zone and scored four TDs against it. Dell has already shown that he has recovered from injury in 2023 and caught a TD pass in the preseason from QB C.J. Stroud. The Texans’ Week 1 opponent is the Colts, who led the NFL in zone coverage rate last year.
RB Joe Mixon is expected to handle RB1 duties in Houston. He scored 12 TDs last season and was third in the NFL in red-zone carries (57). His average ATD odds in Cincinnati last season were +103, and he scored in 10 of 17 games.
Indianapolis Colts
Most profitable TD scorer in 2023: Mo-Alie Cox +18.5 units
Biggest hit of the season: D.J. Mongomery +1800 (Week 15 vs. PIT)
WR Michael Pittman Jr. ranked 11th overall in total red-zone targets in 2023 with 19 targets inside the 20-yard line. Unfortunately, Pittman’s targets fell off a cliff inside the 5-yard line as he only saw four targets in that range. Pittman, along with Jets WR Garrett Wilson, were the only WRs in the NFL to finish with over 150 targets last season and have fewer than five touchdowns.
QB Anthony Richardson will be a popular ATD pick in the early portion of the 2023 season. In four games, he had eight red-zone carries and scored in three with four total TDs. His ATD odds in those games ranged from +105 to +140. The Colts’ Week 1 opponent is the Houston Texans, a team Richardson scored twice on in Week 2 last season.
Will this be the year WR Alec Pierce breaks out? He played over 90% of snaps in 16 of 17 games and led all Colts WRs in snaps played. However, he has only seen 12 red-zone targets total in 33 games played (four TDs) and had average ATD odds of +390 in 2023.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Most profitable TD scorer in 2023: Parker Washington +8.5 units
Biggest hit of the season: Jamal Agnew +1200, Week 15 vs. BAL
Although he ranked 14th in red-zone carries in 2023 (37), RB Travis Etienne was a non-factor in the passing game in scoring territory. Etienne finished with only six red-zone targets and one receiving TD in 2023. Etienne has 13 total red-zone targets in 34 career games and had zero targets inside the 5-yard line in 2023.
The Jaguars only had ONE player who was profitable in 2023 for ATDs: rookie WR Parker Washington at +8.5 units. He scored twice in 2023 with hits of +1100 in Week 14 and +550 in Week 15.
WR Calvin Ridley led the Jaguars with 26 red-zone targets in 2023, which ranked third in the NFL. Ridley is no longer on the Jaguars and if you’re planning to bet a “revenge game” angle, you’ll need to wait until Week 14. The Titans face the Jags twice in the final four weeks of the season. Jacksonville ranked eighth in defensive DVOA against opposing WR1s in 2023 but was in the bottom five in total TDs allowed to wide receivers (18) last season.
Kansas City Chiefs
Most profitable TD scorer in 2023:Rashee Rice +8.5 units
Biggest hit of the season: Noah Gray +800, Week 13 vs. GB
QB Patrick Mahomes entered 2023 with 12 rushing TDs in 80 career games. Despite having a career-high in rushing attempts last season, Mahomes failed to rush for a TD on 13 red-zone carries. His average ATD odds in 2023 was +330. It may be best to avoid Mahomes unless we’re backing to seeing ATD odds at +500 or better.
TE Travis Kelce had minus ATD odds in all 15 games he played last season. However, because he only caught a touchdown in five of those 15 games, finishing at -6.21 units for the season. If you had bet one unit on Kelce in every game over the last two seasons (32 games), you’d be down -10.7 units.
RB Isiah Pacheco all but owns the backfield in Kansas City. He had 42 red-zone carries last year (eighth overall in the NFL) and despite missing three games, no other Chiefs RB topped seven. Outside of Pacheco, all Chiefs RBs combined for 12 red-zone carries in 2023.
Las Vegas Raiders
Most profitable TD scorer in 2023: Raiders Defense +10.5 units
Biggest hit of the season:Tre Tucker +1600, Week 15 vs. LAC
Based on volume, WR Davante Adams should see a bounce-back in 2024. Adams was second in the NFL in red-zone targets (26) last year and third in targets inside the 10-yard line (14). His average ATD odds in 2023 were +190, but it was +115 in 2022.
Raiders quarterbacks have not produced in the ATD department. QB Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell combined for 13 red-zone carries last season. Over the past three seasons, Raiders QBs have scored just two TDs.
Adams is the undisputed WR1 on the team, but WR2 Jakobi Meyers was the player you want to bet on for ATD and first TD props. Meyers finished last season at +9.4 units in profit for ATD bettors and finished at +62 units for 1st TD bettors (ranked third in the NFL). He scored the first TD in five of 16 games last season.
Los Angeles Chargers
Most profitable TD scorer in 2023: Alex Erickson +5 units
Biggest hit of the season: Alex Erickson +1200, Week 15 vs. LVR
Over the last two seasons, QB Justin Herbert has only four rushing TDs, scoring in just two of his 30 games played. He had eight rushing TDs in his first two seasons but with injuries in 2023 and 2022, Herbert may be more reluctant to run for the endzone in 2024.
RB Gus Edwards was a red-zone machine in 2023 with the Ravens. Edwards led the NFL in rushing attempts inside the 5-yard line and while ranking behind QB Jalen Hurts for most TDs inside the 5.
The Chargers WR position could be tough to find an edge with ATD props in 2024. The projected WR1 is Josh Palmer, who had two TDs in 11 games last season. With Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and TE Gerald Everett all out of town, bettors may need to take a wait-and-see approach regarding how the Chargers approach the passing game.
Los Angeles Rams
Most profitable TD scorer in 2023:Demarcus Robinson, +12 units
Biggest hit of the season: Ben Skowronek +1800, Week 8 vs. DAL
TE Colby Parkinson could be in for a huge opportunity with his new team since starter Tyler Higbee will miss the start of the season. Higbee ranked in the top five in red-zone targets for TEs in the last three seasons.
WR Puka Nacua was nearly matchup-proof in 2023. He led the Rams in yards per route run against both man and zone and first-down catches. The Rams’ Week 1 opponent is the Detroit Lions, a team Nacua caught nine balls against in the playoffs last season, including a 50-yard TD.
Miami Dolphins
Most profitable TD scorer in 2023:Raheem Mostert +6.8 units
Biggest hit of the season: River Cracraft +1600, Week 1 vs. LAC
RB Raheem Mostert scored 21 TDs last year to lead the NFL. He also had the most TDs scored inside the 20-yard line. Mostert finished 2023 as the most profitable Dolphins player and had minus odds to score in 11 of 15 games. His average ATD odds last season were -113.
QB Tua Tagovailoa is someone we're going to avoid for ATD props. He hasn’t run for a TD since the 2021 season and has had one carry inside the 5-yard line in his last 30 regular-season games.
The Dolphins defense has allowed the second-most touchdowns to tight ends over the last two seasons (17).
Minnesota Vikings
Most profitable TD scorer in 2023:Jordan Addison +8.35 units
Biggest hit of the season: Josh Oliver +1000, Week 3 vs. LAC
WR Jordan Addison was amazing out of the gate last season but saw a significant drop-off in production after QB Kirk Cousins got hurt. Addison scored seven TDs in the first eight games of his career with Cousins under center and only scored three in the remaining nine games.
QB Sam Darnold isn’t someone to depend on for passing touchdowns. In 66 games played, he only has thrown for three or more TDs in a game four times. He's only done it once in his last 31 games as a starter.
TEs Josh Oliver and Johnny Mundt are expected to carry the load at the position while starter T.J. Hockenson recovers from ACL surgery. In the two final games of the season without Hockenson, Mundt outsnapped Oliver 96-63 while Mundt saw 13 targets (one touchdown) and Oliver saw five targets (zero touchdowns).
New England Patriots
Most profitable TD scorer in 2023: Kevin Harris +22 units
Biggest hit of the season: Pharoah Brown +2800, W3 vs NYJ
The Patriots passing game could be a mess with QB Jacoby Brissett at QB. His career high was 18 passing TDs in 15 games with the Colts in 2019. Patriots pass catchers combined for only 36 red-zone targets in 2023, the fewest in the NFL.
RB Rhamondre Stevenson might be the Patriots' RB1 but when they get into scoring territory, they tend to go away from him. Since he’s come into the NFL (41 games), Stevenson only has 15 carries inside the 5-yard line and has seen three targets inside the 10-yard line.
TE Hunter Henry finished as the 10th most profitable TE in the NFL last season for ATD props. He finished at +5.2 units and caught his six touchdowns in five of 14 games.
New Orleans Saints
Most profitable TD scorer in 2023:Rashid Shaheed +26.4 units
Biggest hit of the season: Rashid Shaheed +1600, Week 6 vs. Bengals
If you had bet one unit on a WR Rashid Shaheed ATD over the last two seasons, you’d be up +38.2 units. The third-year WR has a TD in nine of 27 career games and finished at +11.8 units in 2023.
I wrote this last season and it bears repeating: Derek Carr in the ATD market. He only has six rushing TDs in 159 career games and hasn’t scored since Week 15 of the 2019 season. His average ATD odds last season was +930.
RB Alvin Kamara combined for 44 red-zone touches in 2023 (eight targets and 36 carries). Despite the heavy volume, it didn’t translate to touchdowns as Kamara only scored in five of 13 games and finished at -6.5 units in profit.
New York Giants
Most profitable TD scorer in 2023: Sterling Shepard +12 units
Biggest hit of the season: Sterling Shepard +2500, Week 10 vs. DAL
Giants pass-catchers continued to be a black hole for ATD bettors. They only combined for 38 red-zone targets in 2023, after only having 32 in 2022.
QB Daniel Jones hasn't scored a rushing touchdown against the Cowboys in eight career games. In Week 1 in 2023, Jones was +195 for an ATD and didn’t score. In 2022, his ATD odds against the Cowboys were +250 and +260. The Giants play the Cowboys in Week 4.
Don't expect much of a drop-off with the Giants running game now that Devin Singletary has replaced Saquon Barkley. Singletary had a higher yards-per-carry average last season than Barkley and had nearly the same amount of red-zone carries. Barkley’s average ATD odds in 2023 were +132, while Singletary’s was +197 in Houston.
New York Jets
Most profitable TD scorer in 2023: Nick Bawden +22 units
Biggest hit of the season: Braxton Berrios +3500, Week 3 vs. NE
Jets defense and special teams were the most profitable such units for ATDs in 2023, scoring in four of 17 games and finishing at +18.5 units in profit.
WR Garrett Wilson has more red-zone targets inside the 10-yard line (21) in his first two seasons than WR A.J. Brown (15), WR Mike Evans (15) and TE George Kittle (12). However, if you had bet one unit on Wilson to score a touchdown in each game of his career (34 games), you'd be down -16.4 units.
In 24 regular-season games, Breece Hall has scored in 13 of them. Through two seasons, he’s the only Jets player to be profitable at +3.7 units in 2023 and +8.25 in 2022.
Philadelphia Eagles
Most profitable TD scorer in 2023: Jalen Hurts +3.91 units
Biggest hit of the season: Olamide Zacchaeus +1200, Week 10 vs. BUF
QB Jalen Hurts has been one of the most consistent TD scorers in the last two seasons. In 2023, he scored 15 TDs (10 in 17 games) and in 2022, he scored in nine of 15 games. If you had bet Hurts in every regular-season game over the last two seasons (32 games), you’d be up +7.4 units in profit. He has ranked in the top five in red-zone carries inside the 5-yard line in the last three seasons.
WR A.J. Brown only caught TDs in five of 17 games, but his biggest games last year were against the Washington Commanders. In four games vs the Commanders since getting traded to the Eagles, Brown had five TDs and 26 catches. His ATD odds last vs Washington: +145 in Week 4 and +135 in Week 9.
Outside of Hurts and Zaccheaus (+3.55 units), no other Eagles player was profitable for ATD scorers.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Most profitable TD scorer in 2023:Calvin Austin +11.2 units
Biggest hit of the season: Calvin Austin +2200, Week 16 vs. CIN
WR George Pickens has scored eight of his career nine TDs at home. While three of the first four games for the Steelers are on the road in 2023 (Atlanta, Denver and Indianapolis), each team ranked 19th or worse in the NFL in defensive DVOA against opposing WR1s.
Despite scoring six TDs over the last two seasons, QB Russell Wilson only has four red-zone carries inside the 5-yard line. His average ATD odds with the Broncos (30 games) was +427.
RB Najee Harris was profitable again in 2023 at +1.6 units in 17 games with TDs in seven. However, he only saw 3 red-zone targets last season after having 21 red-zone targets through his first two seasons. He may see more targets early in season if RB Jaylen Warren is sidelined.
San Francisco 49ers
Most profitable TD scorer in 2023: Ronnie Bell +5.9 units
Biggest hit of the season:Jordan Mason +850, Week 6 vs. CLE
RB Christian McCaffrey scored in 13 of 16 regular-season games last season and finished with 21 total TDs. However, he had minus odds in every game with his average ATD odds coming out to -260. As a result, if you had bet one unit on his ATD prop in every regular-season game, you’d only be up +3.4 units.
George Kittle may have only had six touchdowns last year compared to 11 in 2022. Among TE, though, he still has very encouraging metrics for ATDs. Kittle led all TEs in the NFL in yards per route run (2.82) against man coverage while also still being effective against zone, ranking fourth. He also caught four of his six TDs against zone coverage last season.
FB Kyle Juszcyk was profitable again for ATDs in 2023 (+3 units) with two receiving TDs, but his involvement in the running game has dipped significantly. He has only 10 red-zone carries over the last two seasons and after a surprising 2020 season that saw him score six touchdowns (two rushing), he has just six TDs in 50 regular-season games since.
Seattle Seahawks
Most profitable TD scorer in 2023: Colby Parkinson +10 units
Biggest hit of the season: Colby Parkinson +1800, Week 1 vs. Broncos
TE Colby Parkinson has the rare ATD distinction of being the most profitable on his team in the last two seasons. He caught four touchdowns in 34 games over the past two seasons and if you had bet one unit on him to score in each game, you’d be up +18.1 units in profit. He’s now with the Rams' projected TE1.
QB Geno Smith hasn’t had much ATD success with Seattle. With the Seahawks, he has only scored three rushing TDs in 36 games. His average ATD odds with Seattle is +635.
WR DK Metcalf has ranked in the top five in red-zone targets in the last two seasons (50 total), but he’s only caught 18. The good news is 11 of those catches were for TDs so if QB Geno Smith improves his red-zone efficiency, Metcalf could be in for a huge season.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Most profitable TD scorer in 2023: Mike Evans +12.2 units
Biggest hit of the season: Ko Kieft +2800, Week 16 vs GB
Don’t even think about betting Baker Mayfield for ATDs. He only has seven rushing TDs in 89 career games (7.8% TD rate) and while he had 16 red-zone carries last year, only five were inside the 5-yard line.
WR Mike Evans finished again with only 14 red-zone targets in 2023 (same as 2022) but finally got back on track with 13 TDs in 2023 with Baker Mayfield at QB. The big difference was how Evans crushed zone coverage with eight touchdowns against that type of defense last season compared to three in 2022. He also saw his yards per route run and aDOT increase against man in 2023. Evans also had eight touchdown catches of 20 yards or more, which ranked second in the NFL behind Tyreek Hill (12).
WR Chris Godwin has ranked in the top 15 in the NFL red-zone targets inside the 10-yard in the last two seasons, but it hasn’t translated to TDs. Godwin only has five TDs in that stretch and if you had bet his ATD in each regular-season game in that span (32 games), you’d be down -15.7 units.
Tennessee Titans
Most profitable TD scorer in 2023: Josh Whyle +7 units
Biggest hit of the season: Josh Whyle +1900, Week 4 vs. CIN
WR Calvin Ridley is expected to make an immediate impact in Tennessee as WR1. He finished in the top five in red-zone targets inside the 20 and 10-yard lines last season and had eight touchdowns.
The Titans not only have a WR who finished in the top five in red-zone touches, but they signed RB Tony Pollard in free agency. Pollard was second in the NFL in red-zone carries. However, like Ridley, he wasn't efficient with his red-zone touches. Pollard and Ridley combined for 86 red-zone touches but had just 10 total touchdowns.
Outside of WR DeAndre Hopkins, no other player on the Titans had more than six red-zone targets in 2023.
Washington Commanders
Most profitable TD scorer in 2023: Brian Robinson +5.8 units
Biggest hit of the season: Dyami Brown +1100, Week 10 vs. SEA
Look to bet on QB Jayden Daniels in Week 1 against the Buccaneers. Despite ranking in the top five in TDs allowed to RBs and rushing yards per game, the Bucs also gave up the second-most TDs to QBs last year (six). Daniels' ATD odds are hovering over +200 for his first NFL game. If he scores, those odds will plummet moving forward.
The Commanders backfield could be a mess to choose from for ATDs to start the season. Incumbent starter Brian Robinson has 49 red-zone carries over the last two seasons (seven TDs). Now, Austin Ekeler is expected to take over Antonio Gibson's pass-catching role. Daniels will also likely cut into Robinson’s red-zone looks, so stay away from Robinson until we see how this situation shakes out.
TE Zach Ertz was an afterthought signing, but he’s expected to be TE1 with Washington moving on from Logan Thomas. In Ertz's last 17 games with the Cardinals, he saw 22 red-zone targets with five receiving TDs.
