Action Network's NFL Luck Rankings help us identify which teams have been lucky or unlucky in the win-loss column by comparing each team's W/L record to their on-field performance.
We measure on-field performance by creating an Expected Score for each game, based on how each team performed in the situations they faced in their games. From there, we can derive an expected win probability based on the Expected Score and compare that to the team's record. The difference is what we call Luck%.
We can then rank all 32 NFL teams by Luck% from 1-32 to get our Luck Rankings.
2023 NFL Luck Rankings Final Standings
Note: Luck % represents the win probability swing between a team’s expected winning percentage from their on-field performance and their actual winning percentage. Lucky teams may regress and could be overvalued by betting markets.
