Our end-of-season Action Network Luck Rankings gave us 2023's luckiest and unluckiest teams.
We can also use those rankings to identify which teams may have easier or more difficult strengths of schedule in 2024 than the market implies. That's because when market values are set, a sizeable chunk of that correlates to 2023 performance and is typically adjusted for personnel movement, injuries, coaching changes and other factors.
The 2023 performance part is the part we're focusing on.
We've already seen that over the years unlucky teams are undervalued and lucky teams are overvalued by the market when betting NFL spreads. We also know that NFL teams that outperform their Pythagorean Expectation by more than a couple of wins tend to decline the following year, and vice versa for underperforming teams.
By looking at each NFL team's 2024 schedule, we can look at their opponents 2023 Luck% to see if they'll face teams that were lucky or unlucky the previous year.
A team facing a schedule whose opponents were very lucky in 2023 may actually have an easier schedule than anticipated, as these teams on average should regress in the luck department. The opposite is true for teams facing opponents who were quite unlucky last year.
With that said, let's take a look at each team's NFL schedule luck for 2024.
