Welcome to my 2024 NFL Win Total Calculator, the main tool I use for season-long win totals.
I use many metrics when coming up with my team ratings that factor in the team’s current roster, any potential injuries/suspensions that would impact their given odds on any given week, and the coaching staff. I also use our NFL Luck Rankings.
Here are a few other things that are annually factored in:
One-score record: A team’s record in one-score games. The idea here is that we can assume teams should finish right around a 50/50 record in one-score games. If a team goes a few games above/below .500 in one-score games, it usually causes the market to overestimate or underestimate that team based on their one-score luck. My logic is always to assume that their luck will regress toward average the following season.
Injury luck: We can see which teams experienced the best to worst injury luck from a season ago. Injuries are unpredictable but can significantly impact a team’s end-of-season record. Therefore, I assume every team’s injury luck will regress toward average the following season.
Pythagorean win totals: This calculation estimates a team’s record based on point differential. Teams that finish significantly higher or lower than their expected record could have done so based on luck, especially one-score record luck.
I try to factor in everything before locking in a bet. The final step before locking in a bet is to find the best odds available. Win total markets can be tricky because books could offer different numbers with different money lines. This is where my Win Total Calculator comes in handy. Since I’m projecting each team’s chances of finishing with exactly X number of wins, I’m able to calculate the odds for each win total.
I have a couple of books already in my tool, but you can use the Calculator columns to enter in whatever win total, along with the over/under price you have access to get the % edge I’m showing based on my sims.
2024 NFL Win Total Picks
Falcons Over 9.5 Wins (-140, BetMGM)
The Atlanta Falcons have a lot of talent on offense with Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts being some of the top young talent at their respective positions. However, poor quarterback play has held this offense back since losing Matt Ryan.
Desmond Ridder served as the starter last season and ranked 43rd in EPA per play last season out of 46 qualified quarterbacks. To fix that problem, Atlanta brought in Kirk Cousins, who ranked fourth. To say the Falcons should see improved QB play this season is a massive understatement. Additionally, new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson comes from the Sean McVay coaching tree and will benefit this team.
Defensively, the Falcons ranked 24th in DVOA last year, but I expect them to improve under new head coach Raheem Morris, who was hired after three seasons as the Rams defensive coordinator. Atlanta also made sharp moves by bringing in Justin Simmons on a one-year deal worth $8 million and trading for Matthew Judon, who offers a much-needed upgrade to its pass rush.
This defensive line will also get a boost if Grady Jarrett can stay healthy this season. Last year, the two-time Pro Bowler missed nine games and left a big hole up front.
The Falcons are slated to have the easiest schedule according to my latest strength-of-schedule rankings and have one of the best offensive lines in the league.
With both the offense and defense potentially improving a ton this season, this is a team I’m willing to invest in making a big leap this year from a seven-win team to winning double-digit games.
Buccaneers Under 7.5 Wins (+122, FanDuel)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers won nine games last season but could be due for some regression.
The Bucs ranked 10th in injury luck, but key offensive players were healthy for all 19 games (including the playoffs) last season. Any missed games from their core offensive players would already be worse injury luck than they had in 2023.
Former offensive coordinator Dave Canales appears to be the QB whisperer after not only helping Baker Mayfield resurrect his career last year but also Geno Smith in Seattle in 2022. After leaving Seattle for Tampa last year, Smith's play regressed. With Canales now in Carolina, we could see Mayfield experience a similar dip if Canales was the difference.
The Bucs will have tougher competition in the NFC South if the Falcons and Panthers significantly improve this season, which at least for the Falcons, I’m already investing in with their over 9.5. That bet correlates quite a bit with the Bucs under 7.5 here.
Steelers Under 8.5 Wins (-130, BetMGM)
The Pittsburgh Steelers rank dead last in my win total buy/sell luck rankings.
Pittsburgh went 10-7 last year but went 9-2 in one-score games. In general, one-score records aren’t very predictive, and we can assume most teams will be around .500 when it comes to them. Using this logic, the Steelers should have been closer to a seven-win team if they won 50% of their one-score games.
I also like to look at their expected record by game time tied/leading/trailing and they were expected to win around seven games in that metric as well. Additionally, Pittsburgh led the league with four games it trailed in heading into the fourth quarter but eventually won.
We can certainly chalk a lot of this up to great coaching. While it’s true that head coach Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season, streaks are meant to be broken. I think there are enough concerns here that I'm willing to fade Tomlin’s long-time streak.
I remember betting against the Ravens when they snapped their historic preseason win streak because I thought the Commanders should have been favored in that game, but the market was overcorrected simply due to the Ravens win streak. I think this win total could be elevated due to the market being unwilling to bet against the Tomlin trend.
There's still a chance Russell Wilson or Justin Fields will be an upgrade over Kenny Pickett. Based on their EPA/play last season, though, Wilson (26th), Fields (24th), and Pickett (27th) all were in a similar tier.
Wilson and Fields tend to hold onto the ball as both QBs finished in the top six for the longest time to throw and both QBs also finished with below-average pressure to sack rates last year. That’s a concern as they will be playing behind an offensive line that will have three starters that are first or second-year players.
The Steelers also face the second-toughest schedule this year according to my strength of schedule ratings. Last year, they were fortunate to face backup QBs in four of their six divisional matchups. Two of those matchups included playing the Bengals following Joe Burrow’s season-ending injury, as well as facing the Ravens in Week 18 when the starters were given the week off after clinching the No. 1 seed.
The Steelers are unlikely to be that fortunate this season, and I can’t see them going over 8.5 wins this season.
