The Action Network Podcast is your go-to destination for NFL betting content all year long. With the NFL schedule release in the rear-view mirror and futures markets settling in heading into the summer, our crew has you covered with early breakdowns of all 32 teams from a future perspective.
Chris Raybon and Stuckey looked at win totals, divisional futures and more on two episodes this week. You can subscribe to The Action Network Podcast for episodes all year long, and below you can listen to their NFC Win Totals and AFC Win Totals breakdowns, and read a selection of some of their favorite picks.
2024 NFL Win Totals
Baltimore Ravens Under 11.5 Wins
Stuckey: My favorite AFC win total as of now is Baltimore under. I project them around 10.3 wins, so I see value on this under.
I have a lot more questions about this team this year than I did last year. The offensive line in particular, there are many questions there. The loss of Mike Macdonald is massive just on a weekly basis what he did from a game-planning and scheming perspective.
They also had some key pieces they lost on defense. Jadaveon Clowney was so underrated with what he did for that defense last year. They still have to figure out the corner rotation.
I also think Year 2 of Todd Monken is not a positive. I talked about this last year that one of the reasons I liked the Ravens was the coordinator hires. And I thought Monken with Lamar Jackson presented the surprise factor with what the offense was going to look like. You don't really have that advantage anymore.
They do have the largest net rest advantage, but it's still a tough schedule. I have them with the sixth-hardest schedule in the NFL, so I have a lot of questions about this team.
They're still really good, but to me this is more of a 9-10 win team than an 11-12 win team.
Houston Texans Over 9.5 Wins
Chris Raybon: The Texans still have holes. They're still far from a perfect team or an elite team, but I do think they have that ceiling with CJ Stroud. They have a +7 net rest edge with four games with more rest than their opponents.
They did have some big signings, too, with Stefon Diggs on one side of the ball and Danielle Hunter on the other side.
Stroud played well last season even when the offensive line wasn't playing well, so the questions about that make you feel a little better.
Can the Texans get to 10 wins this year? I think so. But they're also going to be a pretty hyped-up team this year, so I hate kind of betting into that. I'm just not really impressed with the rest of this division.
Cincinnati Bengals Over 10.5 Wins & AFC North Division Title
Stuckey: The Bengals to me are right in the same ballpark as the Ravens. As of now I have the Bengals like fractions ahead from a power rating perspective.
People are worried about Joe Burrow's health. I'm not. They also fixed the safety position. They got Vonn Bell back, added Geno Stone who I'm a big fan of.
In Lou Anarumo's defense the safety position is so big, and we saw that when they lost their two stalwarts in the back end last year. As a result, we saw the linebackers drop off last year. We saw with the cornerbacks a lack of communication. Shoring up safety is gonna help that entire defense. It's so key to what Anarumo wants to do.
Losing DJ Reader does hurt, but I trust Burrow with this easy schedule and questions with some of the other teams in the division. I like the Bengals to win the division.
Indianapolis Colts Under 8.5 Wins
Chris Raybon: I like the under on this team. I was really impressed with what they did last year. I was on the under then, too, and I was wrong. So take that for what it's worth.
This year, they come in with a bottom-three net rest edge at -17 days. They have only one game where they have more rest than their opponent, five games where their opponent has extra games and none where their opponent is on short rest.
Anthony Richardson got hurt twice last year in four starts and he ran 10 times in the other two, so you know that's just not sustainable for him to get through a season like this. Joe Flacco is the backup now. Obviously a great little run there with Cleveland, but he's 39.
This roster is pretty solid, but it just lacks the true superstars. JuJu Brents and Dallis Flowers on the outside in the secondary now are some Day 3 picks. Kenny Moore is probably their best cornerback but he's 30 and also plays in the slot.
To me, this is more of a below .500 team, especially with Houston taking another step forward and the Jaguars having more upside. So I like the under on Indianapolis.
Dallas Cowboys Under 10.5 Wins
Stuckey: I think the Cowboys' window has closed. If you look at their offense, they obviously still have CeeDee Lamb, Jake Ferguson is awesome, and Dak Prescott is who he is, but the offensive line now has question marks, which it hasn't in a long time.
The wide receiver depth is a major red flag to me. Ezekiel Elliott is your No. 1 in the backfield? I'm not so sure about that.
The defense is kind of boom or bust. Will Trevon Diggs make a big play? Will Micah Parsons cause some big disruption?
I like Mike Zimmer as a defensive coordinator, but there's obviously some holes on this roster, and with all the contract stuff hovering around a number of players, things could do south for Dallas pretty quickly.
Carolina Panthers Over 4.5 Wins & NFC South Division Title
Chris Raybon: Despite Carolina having to endure 11 games of head-coaching has-been Frank Reich and six more games of never-was-and-never-will-be-again Chris Tabor, in addition to No. 1 pick Bryce Young posting one of the worst quarterback seasons in NFL history, the underlying metrics suggest the Panthers were not quite as bad as their 2-15 record. They were 2-6 in one-score games, which have historically proven to be a 50-50 proposition regardless of team quality.
While the Panthers' -10.6 average point differential was abysmal, it was still representative of a 3.5-win team rather than a two-win team, according to Pythagorean win expectation. Since 2002, teams that underperform their Pythagorean win total by at least one win are 83-68-4 (55.0%) to the over on their win total in the following season. So, we know the Panthers were actually a 3.5/4-win team before adjusting for offseason changes.
Read Chris Raybon's full Panthers analysis here.
