2024 Super Bowl Coin Toss Odds & Pick: Should You Bet Heads or Tails?
Anyone who has gambled more than once at a casino before knows the person who is on tilt and desperately shouting that they’re "due” as they continue to double down on the blackjack or roulette table.
It’s a common gambling fallacy that one side of a near 50-50 event becomes more likely when a string of observed examples on the other side of the event repeatedly happen. The recent success of tails in the last 10 years of Super Bowl coin tosses has some fallacious gamblers wondering whether this is the year heads reclaims the spotlight in the world’s most watched coin flip.
Seven of the last 10 coin flips have come up tails, and 30 of the 57 in the history of the Super Bowl have landed on tails. The history of betting on the Super Bowl coin toss dates back decades.
Super Bowl Coin Toss History
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2014 | Tails |
| 2015 | Tails |
| 2016 | Tails |
| 2017 | Tails |
| 2018 | Heads |
| 2019 | Tails |
| 2020 | Tails |
| 2021 | Heads |
| 2022 | Heads |
| 2023 | Tails |
Super Bowl props: Gatorade Color
Is the Coin Really 50-50?
Some conspiracy theorists and armchair physics or coin-making experts will tell you the Super Bowl coin flip isn't actually a 50-50 event. You’ll maybe get made fun of at your Super Bowl party if you admit you wagered actual dollars on the flip of the coin. I used to be one of those people who mocked others for these seemingly degenerate bets myself, but I’m trying to be less of a curmudgeon in 2024.
You could make an argument that gambling on a true random chance event like a coin toss is silly when there are thousands of options for game props, novelty props and moneyline bets to be had that require thought, predictive skill and real analysis.
But for the majority of the people who will bet on the Super Bowl, they’ll be likely making -EV (expected value) bets for the majority of the night. The coin toss is one of the lowest vigs you’ll pay all week. DraftKings is offering both sides of the coin toss at even money, which is less juice than you’ll pay on all of the other Super Bowl wagers.
“The house always wins” is generally true for the majority of people who bet on sports or in casinos. But betting the coin toss at even money is the house allowing you to bet them straight up. Cherish that moment because it’s rare and fleeting.
There have been some theories that claim the coin used for the Super Bowl isn’t truly 50-50. People say the coin is a commemorative coin, thus the heavier side will be the heads side. Physically, that would mean tails is actually more likely to be the side landed on. These conspiracy theorists have claimed the true odds for the coin is closer to 53% for tails.
The Athletic conducted a test case on this ahead of the 2022 Super Bowl and bought three of the exact replica coins and flipped them 1,751 times. They had 882 tails, which was 50.4% of the time. The sample isn’t large enough to draw any meaningful conclusions and any statistician would tell you 50.4% is well within the reasonable realm of sampling variance.
If you’re willing to bet into this conspiracy theory that the weight of the coin is off, be my guest. Given the sample size is only one coin flip per year, there’s a 50% chance (or maybe slightly higher) that you’ll be able to parade around your Super Bowl watch party as the genius who beat a coin flip market.
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Shop Around for the Best Line
You want to pay the least vig possible, given we know (think?) the true odds for the Super Bowl coin toss is +100, or 50% implied probability.
- FanDuel: -104
- BetMGM: -105
- Caesars: -105
- DraftKings: +100
- BetRivers: -103
DraftKings is offering +100, which makes your bet a true coin flip with no house edge on either side. That’s the best way to play the coin toss, since the goal is to maximize your expected value on the bet.
But there’s no shame in a little -EV gambling. Betting at any of the above listed sportsbooks is actually a better bet mathematically than going to a casino and placing your money on red or black at the roulette table. In fact, a normal roulette table takes a larger vig than even the -110 markets. So when your friend asks why you’re betting on the coin toss, now you can turn the tables on them and explain the bet you made is actually less bad than their last trip to the roulette tables.
Other Ways to Bet the Coin Toss
Last season, the AFC was the designated away team, which meant the Chiefs had the option to call heads or tails. Kansas City chose tails, won the toss, deferred to the second half and then went on to win the game over Philadelphia.
DraftKings is once again offering a parlay of coin toss winner + game winner being the same team. Keep in mind this parlay is introducing more juice and house edge than just traditionally betting the +100 coin flip. Thankfully, the Chiefs broke the streak of eight consecutive Super Bowl coin toss winners going on to lose the game, mainly because we don’t have to hear anyone discuss that ‘trend’ after one team wins the coin toss on Sunday night.
If betting the actual coin toss outcome isn’t your thing, you can also choose to bet which team will win the toss. It’s the exact same bet from a numbers perspective, but maybe rabid Chiefs and 49ers fans want to set the tone with a win over the other team before the ball is even kicked off.
San Francisco has the choice on the coin toss as the designated away team for the Super Bowl. One of the 49ers captains will make the call for heads or tails and then all eyes will be on head referee Bill Vinovich for the most exciting three seconds in sports betting.
Millions of dollars will change hands on the outcome of this toss before we’ll all immediately forget about it until February 2025. In the era of short attention spans, impulse decision making and the need for constant stimulation in the backdrop of the explosion of betting in sports, I can think of few things more quintessentially American (and degenerate) than betting on the coin toss.
And I’ll be there on tails (responsibly).
Are you in North Carolina? With North Carolina sports betting expected to launch on March 11, you’ll be able to bet legally at major sportsbooks. Learn more!
