2024 Super Bowl MVP Odds: You Should Bet Travis Kelce Right Now
Starting with the assumption that the Super Bowl MVP comes from the winning team – which has been true in every Super Bowl since 1971 – is a good way to begin to attack MVP markets.
Therefore, we can look at the implied probability of each team winning the Super Bowl and compare that to various key player odds to see where the market is potentially off.
Since 2000, the MVP award has gone to the winning team's quarterback 62.5% of the time, while their top wide receiver just over 20% of the time.
Travis Kelce to win MVP is as high as +8500 (on FanDuel), which works out to implied odds of about 1.16%. While a tight end has never won Super Bowl MVP, Kelce remains the Chiefs' top option in the passing game, making it only a slight stretch that his odds are similar to that of a typical WR1.
The Chiefs are around +400 (or 20%) to win the Super Bowl depending on the sportsbook you're using. If Kelce wins those roughly one-fifth of the time, his true odds should be around 4% implied, or +2400, giving us a big edge on this bet.
2024 Super Bowl MVP Odds
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
+200 | |
+280 | |
+500 | |
+650 | |
+1200 | |
+6000 | |
+6000 | |
+8500 | |
+9000 | |
+10000 | |
+10000 | |
+11000 | |
+11000 | |
+12000 | |
+12000 | |
+13000 | |
+14000 | |
+15000 | |
+15000 | |
+19000 |
