2024 Super Bowl MVP Odds: Bets & Picks on Deebo Samuel, Patrick Mahomes, More
Let’s dive into the 2024 Super Bowl MVP odds.
The Most Valuable Player market has become one of the most popular avenues to have action on the Super Bowl for casual bettors and sharp bettors alike. In a matchup with so many star players involved on both sides of the ball, this will undoubtedly be one of the more intriguing MVP races in recent memory.
Obviously, if the Chiefs are to become three-time Super Bowl champions under Patrick Mahomes, odds are in favor of the two-time Super Bowl MVP to earn his third MVP award in the last five years. However, if the 49ers get the win, the market really opens up in terms of who makes the game-breaking play for San Francisco that leads it to victory. What will it take to supplant Mahomes? Who are the best values on the 49ers side of the market?
Unlike the regular season MVP award, the Super Bowl MVP is not a quarterback award. Four of the previous 10 Super Bowls have seen the MVP awarded to a non-QB, including two defensive players in Von Miller and Malcolm Smith. Of the previous 22 years, nine of the MVPs named have been either a defensive player or a wide receiver. No running back has achieved the honor since Terrell Davis back in 1998. As mentioned, we are dealing with two very different scenarios playing out, depending on which team gets the win on Sunday. Even if there was a defensive score, I do not see a path for that player to outperform the stars on the offensive side of the ball.
Chiefs Super Bowl MVP Market
When these teams met four years ago in the Super Bowl, the 49ers stifled the Chiefs offense through three quarters of the game. Running back Damien Williams was the late-game hero for Kansas City, tallying 133 total yards on 6.1 yards per rush and scoring two touchdowns in the fourth quarter. Those numbers still weren’t enough to wrestle the award away from Mahomes, who finished with a 78.2 passer rating. Mahomes threw two interceptions in the game, but given the splash plays that led to the historic comeback, it was all the voters needed to witness in order to hand the quarterback the award.
The 49ers defense has surrendered 772 yards in two games this postseason, allowing the Packers and Lions to convert 52% of their 3rd downs. I am hard-pressed to envision a scenario in which the Chiefs offense thrives without Mahomes being the main catalyst. That may sound quite obvious, but Mahomes has not thrown an interception in his last six postseason games. If he plays another clean game, the +150 being offered on Mahomes' MVP odds will seem like a play on the Kansas City moneyline, just at a better value.
What would a non-Mahomes MVP game look like? The most likely scenario in my estimation would be very similar to the AFC Championship Game against the Ravens in terms of game flow. If the Chiefs defense forces a turnover early, or the first drive of the game results in a rushing score for Isiah Pacheco, the Pacheco tickets undoubtedly become the most valuable to hold. Pacheco to win MVP at +2800 is one of the better values on the board currently in the rare instance of a Chiefs blowout win. Plus, you are getting the leverage of multiple rushing scores in which Mahomes would not be credited with a passing score, something you will not benefit from if Travis Kelce or Rashee Rice are your preferred betting options.
The 49ers finished the 2023 regular season fourth in DVOA against the tight end position specifically. This is a difficult matchup for Kelce already, and despite accounting for 44.5% of all of Mahomes’ passing yards and catching a touchdown in their most recent Super Bowl, he wasn’t really in consideration for the MVP award. Kelce at +1300 is a pass.
Rice at +6600 on BetMGM is the best long-shot position in this game. Take surface statistics out of the equation, it is how Rice is used that can lead him to cashing this ticket. Rice is moved around the formation and peppered with short and intermediate throws. His acceleration and tackle-breaking ability has translated to him averaging 8.3 yards per reception after the catch. Only Deebo Samuel was better on a per-catch basis out of all full-time receivers league-wide. For context, Samuel's average depth of target is 7.5 yards down the field while Rice’s is only 5.2. His low aDOT means there will be plenty of opportunities to make plays on his own that voters might see as an individual making a play that isn’t attributed to his quarterback. Play Rice +6600 to win MVP.
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49ers Super Bowl MVP Market
It’s notable that Christian McCaffrey had nearly double the first- and second-place votes of Brock Purdy for regular season MVP. Purdy is fighting an uphill battle to shake the perception that he is simply the facilitator. Against a Chiefs defense that finished the season 27th in rush defense DVOA and 25th in adjusted line yards, a 49ers victory likely means a heavy dose of McCaffrey. With over 100 scrimmage yards and multiple scores in both playoff wins thus far, it feels like it will take something special from Purdy to pay off his odds of being in the +230 to +250 range, in comparison to McCaffrey's +450. Sure, a second-half comeback of epic proportions similar to how Purdy was able to win the NFC title game would crown him MVP, but I do not see that happening against the NFL’s best second-half defense in Kansas City.
Opt for McCaffrey at +450 over Purdy at +230.
While all of the main pass-catchers of the 49ers have a path to the MVP award, Deebo Samuel stands as the best value over George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk. Aiyuk mainly plays on the outside of the formation and will have to face off with one of the league’s best corners in L’Jarius Sneed. Sneed has surrendered only one receiving touchdown this entire season.
Kittle is one of the rare tight ends who can hit the big play, but there isn’t a single 49ers win this season in which his numbers would have coincided to winning the award. In fact, you’d have to go back to Week 16 in 2022 for the numbers to bear out in his favor. With that said, Samuel did not play in that game, so we can pretty much eliminate that result as well.
Samuel winning MVP is my strongest position in this game. For a lot of the same reasons as the path in which Rice can create plays with his own ability after the catch, Samuel can break the game open at any time. 50.3% of all receiving yards against the Chiefs in the regular season came after the catch.
No player in football has been better at generating splash plays with the ball in his hands than Samuel. The likelihood of Samuel getting carries in the running game will only add to the perception he put on the most valuable performance in a 49ers win. Over the last three seasons, Samuel has had six games of either 170 scrimmage yards, 150 scrimmage yards with two touchdowns or three touchdowns. While health has limited his total games played over that span, a fully healthy Samuel is the best bet on the board given the long odds to win Super Bowl MVP.
Who Will Be the MVP of the Super Bowl?
SF WR Deebo Samuel +2500
KC RB Isiah Pacheco +2800
KC WR Rashee Rice +6600
KC QB Patrick Mahomes +150
