The NFL gave us one of the best finishes in recent memory with a record number of teams vying for a spot in the playoffs in the final week. Heading into Week 18, there were 20 teams in Super Bowl contention, which tied the 2006 season for the most teams in Super Bowl contention in the final week, excluding the strike-shortened season.
Of course, all 20 of those teams couldn't make it in, but the teams that did make the postseason all have a shot to hoist the Lombardi Trophy. Here's a look at every team's odds to win the Super Bowl after entering the NFL Wild Card round.
2024 Super Bowl Odds
| Team | Odds to Win Super Bowl |
|---|---|
| 49ers | +230 |
| Ravens | +350 |
| Bills | +650 |
| Cowboys | +750 |
| Chiefs | +900 |
| Eagles | +1400 |
| Dolphins | +1600 |
| Lions | +2100 |
| Browns | +3100 |
| Texans | +5000 |
| Rams | +5000 |
| Buccaneers | +5500 |
| Packers | +10000 |
| Steelers | +13000 |
Favorites
49ers
The 49ers have been the class of the NFC nearly all season long and are favored to win their first Super Bowl since the 1994 season.
San Francisco gets a week to rest up as the conference’s top seed. The Niners went 10-1 against the NFC this year, including 6-1 against teams that either clinched or were still alive in the playoff race heading into Week 18.
Brock Purdy has proven that last year was no fluke, and he was actually the MVP favorite as recently as Week 16. His full arsenal of weapons is as dangerous as they come, led by Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle and, of course, Offensive Player of the Year favorite Christian McCaffrey. The 49ers were tied for second-most points per game (29.4) heading into the season finale in which they rested Purdy and McCaffrey
San Francisco’s been stout defensively, too. They’re fourth in total defensive DVOA and fourth against the pass, yet are middling against the run by ranking 15th. Nick Bosa led the team with 10.5 sacks, while Charvarius Ward ended the year tied for the fourth-most picks in the league (five).
Ravens
The Ravens benched their starters for Week 18, so we can throw that result out the window. As such, Baltimore made a major statement down the stretch with its regulars by winning six straight before the season finale. That included two games in which they hammered the 49ers and Dolphins by a combined score of 89-38.
The Ravens are one of the most balanced teams in the league, ranking first in overall DVOA, first in defensive and second in offense. They allowed far-and-away the fewest points in the league (16.5). Offensively, they scored the third most points per game (28.4) and ranked fourth in total offense (370.4 ypg) behind the league’s top rushing attack (156.5 ypg).
If there’s concern about Baltimore, it’s that the Ravens went just 4-3 against teams that had either clinched or were still alive heading into Week 18. That record drops to 4-4 if you add in Saturday’s loss without their regulars.
Next-Best
Bills
The Bills were one of the NFL’s most disappointing teams for the first two-thirds of the season. Suddenly, they’re one of the hottest in the NFL and are coming off five straight wins — including three against playoff teams.
And the advanced metrics love this team, too, giving them the No. 3 nod out of all the teams remaining.
That's a far cry from being 6-6 and a world's away from the playoffs. Now they’re the team no one wants to face in the postseason.
Cowboys
The Cowboys surged past the Eagles to win the NFC East, which is huge for their Super Bowl aspirations.
Dallas went a perfect 8-0 at home or the first time since 1981. It’s only the fourth time in franchise history the Cowboys didn’t lose a game at home. Meanwhile, they were just 3-5 heading into the season finale in Washington. In the playoffs, they would only need to leave AT&T Stadium for a potential showdown in San Francisco in the NFC Championship game.
The Cowboys went 8-3 against the NFC heading into Week 18. However, their strength of victory is a potential warning sign moving forward. It’s only .398, which is the lowest among NFC playoff teams.
Mid-Tier
Chiefs
The Chiefs won their eighth straight division title, which is the second-longest consecutive run in NFL history. However, they look far from the dominant team we’re used to seeing.
Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce have been Patrick Mahomes' only truly reliable weapons. In fact, the Chiefs entered Week 18 with the most drops in the NFL (40). As a result, Mahomes has thrown for his fewest yards since 2019, when he missed two games. He’s also thrown only 27 touchdown passes compared to 41 last season.
While its offense has led the way in recent years, it’s Kansas City’s defense that has been a powerhouse. That unit has allowed the third-fewest points per game (17.6), which is far and away the fewest in the Mahomes era.
Eagles
The Eagles are scuffling heading into the playoffs, having lost four of five games heading into Week 18. There are rumblings of discord in the locker room as they blew what appeared to be a stranglehold on the division.
Philadelphia’s defense has been a disaster, leading head coach Nick Sirianni to strip defensive coordinator Sean Desai of play-calling duties and turn them over to Matt Patricia. Philly's pass defense has been its Achilles heel, allowing the third-most yards against (269.3).
The Eagles’ defense has been starting games strong during their poor finish but collapsing in the second half. It’s allowed a league-low 4.0 points in the first half over the past three games but given up a league-high 22.7 points in the second.
Dolphins
The Dolphins are a banged-up bunch heading into the playoffs. Jaylen Waddle (ankle) and Raheem Mostert (knee/ankle) missed the last two games of the regular season, which is a major hit to Miami’s explosive offense. Meanwhile, Bradley Chubb’s out for the year after tearing his ACL, Xavien Howard’s battling a foot injury and top pass rusher Jaelen Phillips is out with a torn Achilles.
The biggest knock on the Dolphins has been their struggles against winning teams. They’ve been up on losing teams with far and away the worst winning percentage among playoff teams (.352). Meanwhile, they’re 1-5 against playoff teams, including an excruciating loss to the Bills in a winner-take-all matchup.
Lions
It’s been quite the year in Detroit for long-suffering Lions fans. They won their first-ever NFC North title and earned their first postseason appearance since 2016 and only their fourth playoff berth since 1999. Detroit tied its franchise record with 12 wins and now looks for its first playoff win since 1991.
The Lions offense has been phenomenal all year long. They ranked third in total yards per game (395.7) and passing yards per game (255.6), fourth in rushing yards per game (140.1) and fifth in points per game (26.9) heading into the season finale.
Perhaps the biggest variable for them making a run is whether they play indoors or out. The splits between the two have been huge in the Jared Goff era, and that continued this year as they were 9-3 in domes but 3-2 outside.
Long Shots
Texans
C.J. Stroud authored one of the most impressive rookie campaigns of any quarterback in leading the Texans' resurgence from being the second-worst team in the league a year ago to the AFC South champions. The heavy favorite to win Rookie of the Year came up clutch to clinch a playoff berth, completing 20-of-26 passes for 264 yards and a pair of touchdowns in Week 18.
Houston benefited from a weak schedule in playing only four teams that ended up making the playoffs, and it went 2-2 against them. The Texans' .477 strength of schedule is one of the weakest of all 14 playoff teams, although their .470 strength of victory is fifth-best among those teams.
Browns
Kevin Stefanski ends the year as the favorite to win his second Coach of the Year award, and it’s not hard to see why. Cleveland was forced to use five – yes five! – different starting quarterbacks. Nonetheless, the Browns went 10-6 to capture the first wild card spot before resting their regulars in the season finale.
Joe Flacco’s the big story for the Browns. Not a single team contacted him until Cleveland in late November to sign him to the practice squad. He was named the starting quarterback in early December, and against all odds he has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league ever since.
Cleveland’s had one of the toughest schedules this year. It was the second hardest among all AFC playoff teams (.541), trailing only the Ravens. Meanwhile, its 5.22 strength of victory is third best among all playoff teams.
Finally, if the old saying "defense wins championships" proves true, Cleveland has a good shot at going all the way. After all, the Browns entered Week 18 allowing the fewest yards per game by a good margin (266.6).
Rams
The Rams went from one of the biggest disappointments of 2022 to one of the biggest surprises of 2023. They were expected to contend for back-to-back Super Bowl titles a year ago, only to finish 5-12. However, behind a healthy Matthew Stafford and historic rookie season from Puka Nacua, Los Angeles heads back to the playoffs as a dangerous wild card team.
Head coach Sean McVay opted to rest his starters in Week 18 despite there being playoff seeding on the line. Taking that game out of the equation, the Rams dominated to end the regular season, winning five-of-six games to go from 3-6 to 9-7.
The Rams boast a strong offense but middling defense. They average the eighth-most points per game (26.4), but rank 19th in points allowed.
Steelers
Mike Tomlin worked his voodoo magic once again. The Steelers earned a playoff spot by beating the Ravens, 17-10, before the Titans upset the Jaguars, 28-20.
Najee Harris powered Pittsburgh into the postseason, sparking them on a three-game winning streak to end the regular season. He turned into a workhorse, averaging 24 carries for 104.0 yards and four touchdowns.
Still, the Steelers don’t have many believers as they have the longest odds to win the Super Bowl. However, people might be surprised to learn that Pittsburgh has the best strength of victory in the AFC, and second-best in the entire NFL behind the Cardinals.
Packers
The Jordan Love era kicked off as good as Green Bay could have hoped, as he led the Packers back to the playoffs with an impressive season. He was especially incredible down the stretch, while finishing the year with a 17-9 win over the Bears.
The Packers must shore up their porous defense if they hope to make a run. It’s the fifth-worst unit in total DVOA and ranks 30th against the pass and 26th against the run.
